Microsoft Prediction Technology: What about Windows Phone Sales?

October 7, 2014

I am amused when a company can roll out a product that people do not like. A good example is the Windows 8 version of the popular operating system. I think of Vista and Windows ME. I wonder how a company cannot “predict” how its own customers will react to a series of very expensive operating system changes.

The answer is that Microsoft’s ability to predict is not particularly good in my opinion. I won’t mention Windows Phone. I would point out that Apple’s iPhone 6 moved millions of units over a weekend. Did Microsoft predict that its phone would perform at a comparable level? Probably.

I read “A New Kind of Data-Driven Predictive Methodology.” The article is one of a flurry of fancy math stories that are choking my Overflight intelligence system.

The article explains that Microsoft predicted the Scottish independence vote and:

Microsoft…correctly predicted the winners of all 15 World Cup knockout games earlier this year and got the Obama vs. Romney outcome right in 50 of 51 jurisdictions (the states plus the District of Columbia) in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

Pretty impressive until I think about Microsoft’s dismal track record with its own products’ acceptance by its own customers.

If you want to get more insight into a system that seems to perform well for non Microsoft questions, dig in. Microsoft is into social, reinventing survey research, and analysis of data that “must be accurate.”

Yep, accurate data help. How did those predictions about the Fast Search & Transfer acquisition work out? I will try to “Delve” into that question.

Stephen E Arnold, October 7, 2014

Comments

One Response to “Microsoft Prediction Technology: What about Windows Phone Sales?”

  1. Aweber Feedburner on October 9th, 2014 3:37 am

    Link exchange ?s nothing else but itt ?s just placing tthe other person’s blog link ?n yo?r p?ge at proper ?lace and
    ?ther person will also do ?imilar fo? you.

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