Need a Guide to Destroying Social Cohesion: Chinese Academics Have One for You
May 25, 2023
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Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
The TikTok service is one that has kicked the Google in its sensitive bits. The “algorithm” befuddles both European and US “me too” innovators. The ability of short, crunchy videos has caused restaurant chefs to craft food for TikTok influencers who record meals. Chefs!
What other magical powers can a service like TikTok have? That’s a good question, and it is one that the Chinese academics have answered. Navigate to “Weak Ties Strengthen Anger Contagion in Social Media.” The main idea of the research is to validate a simple assertion: Can social media (think TikTok, for example) take a flame thrower to social ties? The answer is, “Sure can.” Will a social structure catch fire and collapse? “Sure can.”
A frail structure is set on fire by a stream of social media consumed by a teen working in his parents’ garden shed. MidJourney would not accept the query a person using a laptop setting his friends’ homes on fire. Thanks, Aunt MidJourney.
The write up states:
Increasing evidence suggests that, similar to face-to-face communications, human emotions also spread in online social media.
Okay, a post or TikTok video sparks emotion.
So what?
…we find that anger travels easily along weaker ties than joy, meaning that it can infiltrate different communities and break free of local traps because strangers share such content more often. Through a simple diffusion model, we reveal that weaker ties speed up anger by applying both propagation velocity and coverage metrics.
The authors note:
…we offer solid evidence that anger spreads faster and wider than joy in social media because it disseminates preferentially through weak ties. Our findings shed light on both personal anger management and in understanding collective behavior.
I wonder if any psychological operations professionals in China or another country with a desire to reduce the efficacy of the American democratic “experiment” will find the research interesting?
Stephen E Arnold, May 25, 2023
Those Mobile Phones Are Something, Are They Not?
May 23, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
Apple, Google, Samsung, and a covey of Chinese mobile phone innovators have improved modern life. Imagine. People have a phone. No sharing one telephone in a fraternity house, a cheap flat, or at an airport, just call, text, vlog, or swipe.
Are their downsides? For a quarter century the American Psychological Association was not sure. Now an outfit called Sapien Labs provides additional information about mobile phone usage.
For me, there were several highlights in the article “Kids Who Get Smartphones Earlier Become Adults With Worse Mental Health.”
First, the idea that young people who tap, swipe, and suck down digital information are unlikely to emulate Jonathan Edwards, Mother Teresa, or the ambiguous St. Thomas of Aquinas. The article states:
the younger the age of getting the first smartphone, the worse the mental health that the young adult reports today.
Obvious to some, but a scientific study adds more credence to the parent who says no to a child’s demand for a mobile phone or tablet.
Second, women (females) are more affected by the mobile phone. The study points out six categories of impact. Please, consult the article and the full study for the academic details. Again. No big surprise, but I wouldn’t ignore the fact that in some male cohorts, suicides are increasing. Regardless of gender, mobile phones appear to nudge some into wackiness or the ultimate solution to having friends make fun of one’s sneakers.
Third, I was surprised to learn that some young people get phones when they are five years old. I have seen very young children poking at an iPad in a restaurant or playing games on the parental unit’s mobile phones in an airport. I did not know the child had a phone to call his own. Good marketing by Apple, Google, Samsung, and Chinese outfits!
The study identifies a number of implications. Again, I am okay with those identified, but the cyber crime crowd was not discussed. My own perception is that mobile devices are the catalyst for a wide range of cyber crime. Once again, the unintended consequences of a mobile device have the capacity to enable some societal modifications that may be impossible to remediate.
Again: Nice work!
Stephen E Arnold, May 23, 2023
Is It Lights Out on the Information Superhighway?
April 26, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
We just completed a lecture about the shadow web. This is our way of describing a number of technologies specifically designed to prevent law enforcement, tax authorities, and other entities charged with enforcing applicable laws in the dark.
Among the tools available are roulette services. These can be applied to domain proxies so it is very difficult to figure out where a particular service is at a particular point in time. Tor has uttered noises about supporting the Mullvad browser and baking in a virtual private network. But there are other VPNs available, and one of the largest infrastructure service providers is under what appears to be “new” ownership. Change may create a problem for some enforcement entities. Other developers work overtime to provide services primarily to those who want to deploy what we call “traditional Dark Web sites.” Some of these obfuscation software components are available on Microsoft’s GitHub.
I want to point to “Global Law Enforcement Coalition Urges Tech Companies to Rethink Encryption Plans That Put Children in Danger from Online Abusers.” The main idea behind the joint statement (the one to which I point is from the UK’s National Crime Agency) is:
The announced implementation of E2EE on META platforms Instagram and Facebook is an example of a purposeful design choice that degrades safety systems and weakens the ability to keep child users safe. META is currently the leading reporter of detected child sexual abuse to NCMEC. The VGT has not yet seen any indication from META that any new safety systems implemented post-E2EE will effectively match or improve their current detection methods.
From my point of view, a questionable “player” has an opportunity to make it possible to enforce laws related to human trafficking, child safety, and related crimes like child pornography. The “player” seems interested in implementing encryption that would make government enforcement more difficult, if not impossible in some circumstances.
The actions of this “player” illustrate what’s part of a fundamental change in the Internet. What was underground is now moving above ground. The implementation of encryption in messaging applications is a big step toward making the “regular” Internet or what some called the Clear Web into a new version of the Dark Web. Not surprisingly, the Dark Web will not go away, but why develop Dark Web sites when Clear Web services provide communications, secrecy, the ability to transmit images and videos, and perform financial transactions related to these data. Thus the Clear Web is falling into the shadows.
My team and I are not pleased with ignoring appropriate and what we call “ethical” behavior with specific actions to increase risks to average Internet users. In fact, some of the “player’s actions” are specifically designed to make the player’s service more desirable to a market segment once largely focused on the Dark Web.
More than suggestions are needed in my opinion. Direct action is required.
Stephen E Arnold, April 26, 2023
Is the UK Stupid? Well, Maybe, But Government Officials Have Identified Some Targets
February 27, 2023
I live in good, old Kentucky, rural Kentucky, according to my deceased father-in-law. I am not an Anglophile. The country kicked my ancestors out in 1575 for not going with the flow. Nevertheless, I am reluctant to slap “even more stupid” on ideas generated by those who draft regulations. A number of experts get involved. Data are collected. Opinions are gathered from government sources and others. The result is a proposal to address a problem.
The write up “UK Proposes Even More Stupid Ideas for Directly Regulating the Internet, Service Providers” makes clear that governments have not been particularly successful with its most recent ideas for updating the UK’s 1990 Computer Misuse Act. The reasons offered are good; for example, reducing cyber crime and conducting investigations. The downside of the ideas is that governments make mistakes. Governmental powers creep outward over time; that is, government becomes more invasive.
The article highlights the suggested changes that the people drafting the modifications suggest:
- Seize domains and Internet Protocol addresses
- Use of contractors for this process
- Restrict algorithm-manufactured domain names
- Ability to go after the registrar and the entity registering the domain name
- Making these capabilities available to other government entities
- A court review
- Mandatory data retention
- Redefining copying data as theft
- Expanded investigatory activities.
I am not a lawyer, but these proposals are troubling.
I want to point out that whoever drafted the proposal is like a tracking dog with an okay nose. Based on our research for an upcoming lecture to some US government officials, it is clear that domain name registries warrant additional scrutiny. We have identified certain ISPs as active enablers of bad actors because there is no effective oversight on these commercial and sometimes non-governmental organizations or non-profit “do good” entities. We have identified transnational telecommunications and service providers who turn a blind eye to the actions of other enterprises in the “chain” which enables Internet access.
The UK proposal seems interesting and a launch point for discussion, the tracking dog has focused attention on one of the “shadow” activities enabled by lax regulators. Hopefully more scrutiny will be directed at the complicated and essentially Wild West populated by enablers of criminal activity like human trafficking, weapons sales, contraband and controlled substance marketplaces, domain name fraud, malware distribution, and similar activities.
At least a tracking dog is heading along what might be an interesting path to explore.
Stephen E Arnold, February 27, 2023
A Convenient Deep-Fake Time Saver
February 1, 2023
There are some real concerns about deepfakes, and identifying AI imposters remains a challenge. Amid the excitement, there is one outfit determined to put the troublesome tech to use for average folks. We learn about a recent trial run in Motherboard‘s piece, “Researcher Deepfakes His Voice, Uses AI to Demand Refund from Wells Fargo.”
Yes, among other things, Do Not Pay is working to take the tedium out of wrangling with customer service. Writer Joseph Cox describes a video posted on Twitter by founder Joshua Browder in which he uses an AI copy of his voice to request a refund for certain wire transfer fees. In the clip, the tool appears to successfully negotiate with a live representative, though a Wells Fargo spokesperson claims this was not the case and the video was doctored. Browder vigorously insists it was not. We are told Motherboard has requested a recording of the call from Wells Fargo’s side, but they had apparently not supplied on as of this writing. Cox writes:
“‘Hi, I’m calling to get a refund for wire transfer fees,’ the fake Browder says around half way through the clip. The customer support worker then asks for the callers first and last name, which the bot dutifully provides. For a while, the bot and worker spar back and forth on which wire transfer fees the bot is calling about, before settling on the fees for the past three months. In a tweet, Browder said the tool was built from a combination of Resemble.ai, a site that lets users create their own AI voices, GPT-J, an open source casual language model, and Do Not Pay’s own AI models for the script. Do Not Pay has previously used AI-powered bots to negotiate Comcast bills. The conversation from this latest bot is very unnatural. There are long pauses where the bot processes what the customer support worker has said, and works on its response. You can’t help but feel bad for the Wells Fargo worker who had to sit silently while the bot slowly did its thing. But in this case, the bot was effective and did manage to secure the refunds, judging by the video.”
Do Not Pay does plan to make this time-saving tool available to the public, though equipping it with one’s own voice will be a premium option. As uses for deep fake technology go, this does seem like one of the least nefarious. Corporations like Wells Fargo, however, may disagree.
Cynthia Murrell, February 1, 2023
Social Media Scam-A-Rama
January 26, 2023
The Internet is a virtual playground for scam artists. While it is horrible that bad actors can get away with their crimes, it is also impressive the depth and creativity they go to for “easy money.” Fortune shares the soap opera-worthy saga of how: “Social Media Influencers Are Charged With Feeding Followers ‘A Steady Diet Of Misinformation’ In A Pump And Dump Stock Scheme That Netted $100 Million.”
The US Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) busted eight purported social media influencers who specialized in stock market trading advice. From 2020 to April 2022, they tricked their amateur investor audience of over 1.5 million Twitter users to invest funds in a “pump-and-dump” scheme. The scheme worked as follows:
“Seven of the social-media influencers promoted themselves as successful traders on Twitter and in Discord chat rooms and encouraged their followers to buy certain stocks, the SEC said. When prices or volumes of the promoted stocks would rise, the influencers ‘regularly sold their shares without ever having disclosed their plans to dump the securities while they were promoting them,’ the agency said. ‘The defendants used social media to amass a large following of novice investors and then took advantage of their followers by repeatedly feeding them a steady diet of misinformation,’ said the SEC’s Joseph Sansone, chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Market Abuse Unit.”
The ring’s eighth member hosted a podcast that promoted the co-conspirators as experts. The entire group posted about their luxury lifestyles to fool their audiences further about their stock market expertise.
All of the bad actors could face a max penalty of ten to twenty-five years in prison for fraud and/or unlawful monetary transactions. The SEC is cracking down on cryptocurrency schemes given the large number of celebrities who are hired to promote schemes. The celebrities claim to be innocent, because they were paid to promote a product and were not aware of the scam.
However, how innocent are these people when they use their status to make more money off their fans? They should follow Shaq’s example and research the products they are associated with before accepting a check…unless they are paid in cryptocurrency. That would be poetic justice!
Whitney Grace, January 26, 2023
The LaundroGraph: Bad Actors Be On Your Toes
January 20, 2023
Now here is a valuable use of machine learning technology. India’s DailyHunt reveals, “This Deep Learning Technology Is a Money-Launderer’s Worst Nightmare.” The software, designed to help disrupt criminal money laundering operations, is the product of financial data-science firm Feedzai of Portugal. We learn:
“The Feedzai team developed LaundroGraph, a self-supervised model that might reduce the time-consuming process of assessing vast volumes of financial interactions for suspicious transactions or monetary exchanges, in a paper presented at the 3rd ACM International Conference on AI in Finance. Their approach is based on a graph neural network, which is an artificial neural network or ANN built to process vast volumes of data in the form of a graph.”
The AML (anti-money laundering) software simplifies the job of human analysts, who otherwise must manually peruse entire transaction histories in search of unusual activity. The article quotes researcher Mario Cardoso:
“Cardoso explained, ‘LaundroGraph generates dense, context-aware representations of behavior that are decoupled from any specific labels.’ ‘It accomplishes this by utilizing both structural and features information from a graph via a link prediction task between customers and transactions. We define our graph as a customer-transaction bipartite graph generated from raw financial movement data.’ Feedzai researchers put their algorithm through a series of tests to see how well it predicted suspicious transfers in a dataset of real-world transactions. They discovered that it had much greater predictive power than other baseline measures developed to aid anti-money laundering operations. ‘Because it does not require labels, LaundroGraph is appropriate for a wide range of real-world financial applications that might benefit from graph-structured data,’ Cardoso explained.”
For those who are unfamiliar but curious (like me), navigate to this explanation of bipartite graphs. The future applications Cardoso envisions include detecting other financial crimes like fraud. Since the researchers intend to continue developing their tools, financial crimes may soon become much trickier to pull off.
Cynthia Murrell, January 20, 2022
The Intelware Sector: In the News Again
January 13, 2023
It’s Friday the 13th. Bad luck day for Voyager Labs, an Israel-based intelware vendor. But maybe there is bad luck for Facebook or Meta or whatever the company calls itself. Will there be more bad luck for outfits chasing specialized software and services firms?
Maybe.
The number of people interested in the savvy software and systems which comprise Israel’s intelware industry is small. In fact, even among some of the law enforcement and intelligence professionals whom I have encountered over the years, awareness of the number of firms, their professional and social linkages, and the capabilities of these systems is modest. NSO Group became the poster company for how some of these systems can be used. Not long ago, the Brennan Center made available some documents obtained via legal means about a company called Voyager Labs.
Now the Guardian newspaper (now begging for dollars with blue and white pleas) has published “Meta Alleges Surveillance Firm Collected Data on 600,000 Users via Fake Accounts.” the main idea of the write up is that an intelware vendor created sock puppet accounts with phony names. Under these fake identities, the investigators gathered information. The write up refers to “fake accounts” and says:
The lawsuit in federal court in California details activities that Meta says it uncovered in July 2022, alleging that Voyager used surveillance software that relied on fake accounts to scrape data from Facebook and Instagram, as well as Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn and Telegram. Voyager created and operated more than 38,000 fake Facebook accounts to collect information from more than 600,000 Facebook users, including posts, likes, friends lists, photos, comments and information from groups and pages, according to the complaint. The affected users included employees of non-profits, universities, media organizations, healthcare facilities, the US armed forces and local, state and federal government agencies, along with full-time parents, retirees and union members, Meta said in its filing.
Let’s think about this fake account thing. How difficult is it to create a fake account on a Facebook property. About eight years ago as a test, my team created a fake account for a dog — about eight years ago. Not once in those eight years was any attempt to verify the humanness or the dogness of the animal. The researcher (a special librarian in fact) set up the account and demonstrated to others on my research team how the Facebook sign up system worked or did not work in this particularly example. Once logged in, faithful and trusting Facebook seemed to keep our super user logged into the test computer. For all I know, Tess is still logged in with Facebook doggedly tracking her every move. Here’s Tess:
Tough to see that Tess is not a true Facebook type, isn’t it?
Is the accusation directed at Voyager Labs a big deal? From my point of view, no. The reason that intelware companies use Facebook is that Facebook makes it easy to create a fake account, exercises minimal administrative review of registered user, and prioritizes other activities.
I personally don’t know what Voyager Labs did or did not do. I don’t care. I do know that other firms providing intelware have the capability of setting up, managing, and automating some actions of accounts for either a real human, an investigative team, or another software component or system. (Sorry, I am not at liberty to name these outfits.)
Grab your Tum’s bottle and consider these points:
- What other companies in Israel offer similar alleged capabilities?
- Where and when were these alleged capabilities developed?
- What entities funded start ups to implement alleged capabilities?
- What other companies offer software and services which deliver similar alleged capabilities?
- When did Facebook discover that its own sign up systems had become a go to source of social action for these intelware systems?
- Why did Facebook ignore its sign up procedures failings?
- Are other countries developing and investing in similar systems with these alleged capabilities? If so, name a company in England, France, China, Germany, or the US?
These one-shot “intelware is bad” stories chop indiscriminately. The vendors get slashed. The social media companies look silly for having little interest in “real” identification of registrants. The licensees of intelware look bad because somehow investigations are somehow “wrong.” I think the media reporting on intelware look silly because the depth of the information on which they craft stories strikes me as shallow.
I am pointing out that a bit more diligence is required to understand the who, what, why, when, and where of specialized software and services. Let’s do some heavy lifting, folks.
Stephen E Arnold, January 13, 2023
Spammers, Propagandists, and Phishers Rejoice: ChatGPT Is Here
January 12, 2023
AI-generate dart is already receiving tons of backlash from the artistic community and now writers should trade lightly because according to the No Film School said, “You Will Be Impacted By AI Writing…Here Is How.” Hollywood is not a friendly place, but it is certainly weird. Scriptwriters deal with all personalities, especially bad actors, who comment on their work. Now AI algorithms will offer notes on their scripts too.
ChatGPT is a new AI tool that blurs the line between art and aggregation because it can “help” scriptwriters with their work aka made writers obsolete:
“ChatGPT, and programs like it, scan the internet to help people write different prompts. And we’re seeing it begin to be employed by Hollywood as well. Over the last few days, people have gone viral on Twitter asking the AI interface to write one-act plays based on sentences you type in, as well as answer questions….This is what the program spat back out at me:
‘There is concern among some writers and directors in Hollywood that the use of AI in the entertainment industry could lead to the creation of content that is indistinguishable from human-generated content. This could potentially lead to the loss of jobs for writers and directors, as AI algorithms could be used to automate the process of creating content. Additionally, there is concern that the use of AI in Hollywood could result in the creation of content that is formulaic and lacks the creativity and uniqueness that is typically associated with human-generated content.’”
Egads, that is some good copy! AI automation, however, lacks the spontaneity of human creativity. But the machine generated prose is good enough for spammers, propagandists, phishers, and college students.
Humans are still needed to break the formulaic, status quo, but Hollywood bigwigs only see dollar signs and not art. AI create laughable stories, but they are getting better all the time. AI could and might automate the industry, but the human factor is still needed. The bigger question is: How will humanity’s role change in entertainment?
Whitney Grace, January 12, 2023
Cyber Investigators: Feast, Famine, or Poisoned Data in 2023
January 11, 2023
At this moment in time, the hottest topic among some cyber investigators is open source intelligence or OSINT. In 2022, the number of free and for-fee OSINT tools and training sessions grew significantly. Plus, each law enforcement and intelligence conference I attended in 2022 was awash with OSINT experts, exhibitors, and investigators eager to learn about useful sites, Web and command line techniques, and intelware solutions combining OSINT information with smart software. I anticipate that 2023 will be a bumper year for DYOR or do your own research. No collegial team required, just a Telegram group or a Twitter post with comments. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has become the touchstone for the importance of OSINT.
Over pizza, my team and I have been talking about how the OSINT “revolution” will unwind in 2023. On the benefit side of the cyber investigative ledger, OSINT is going to become even more important. After 30 years in the background, OSINT has become the next big thing for investigators, intelligence professionals, entrepreneurs, and Beltway bandits. Systems developed in the US, Israel, and other countries continue to bundle sophisticated analytics plus content. The approach is to migrate basic investigative processes into workflows. A button click automates certain tasks. Some of the solutions have proven themselves to be controversial. Voyager Lab and the Los Angeles Police Department generated attention in late 2021. The Brennan Center released a number of once-confidential documents revealing the capabilities of a modern intelware system. Many intelware vendors have regrouped and appear to be ready to returned to aggressive marketing of their systems, its built-in data, and smart software. These tools are essential for certain types of investigations whether in US agencies like Homeland Security or in financial crime investigations at FINCEN. Even state and city entities have embraced the mantra of better, faster, easier, and, in some cases, cheaper investigations.
Another development in 2023 will be more tension between skilled human investigators and increasingly smarter software. The bean counters (accountants) see intelware as a way to reduce the need for headcount (full time equivalents) and up the amount of smart software and OSINT information. Investigators will face an increase in cyber crime. Some involved in budgeting will emphasize smart software instead of human officers. The crypto imbroglio is just one facet of the factors empowering online criminal behavior. Some believe that the Dark Web, CSAM, and contraband have faded from the scene. That’s a false idea. In the last year or so, what my team and I call the “shadow Web” has become a new, robust, yet hard-to-penetrate infrastructure for cyber crime. Investigators now face an environment into which a digital Miracle-Gro has been injected. Its components are crypto, encryption, and specialized software that moves Web sites from Internet host to Internet host in the click of a mouse. Chasing shadows is a task even the most recent intelware systems find difficult to accomplish.
However, my team and I believe that there is another downside for law enforcement and a major upside for bad actors. The wide availability of smart software capable of generating misinformation in the form of text, videos, and audio. Unfortunately today’s intelware is not yet able to flag and filter weaponized information in real time or in a reliable way. OSINT advocates and marketers unfamiliar with the technical challenges of ignoring “fake” information downplay the risk of weaponized or poisoned information. A smart software system ingesting masses of digital information can, at this time, learn from bogus data and, therefore, output misleading or incorrect recommendations. In 2023, poisoned data continue to derail many intelware systems as well as traditional investigations when insufficient staff are available to determine provenance and accuracy. Our research has identified 10 widely-used mathematical procedures particularly sensitive to bogus information. Few want to discuss these out-of-sight sinkholes in public forums. Hopefully the reluctance to talks about OSINT blindspots will fade in 2023.
The feast? Smart software. Masses of information.
The famine? Funds to expand the hiring of full time (not part time) investigators and the money needed to equip these professionals with high-value, timely instruction about tools, sources, pitfalls, and methods for verification of data.
The poison? The ChatGPT and related tools which can make anyone with basic scripting expertise into a volcano of misinformation.
Let me suggest four steps to begin to deal with the feast, famine, and poison challenges?
First, individuals, trade groups, and companies marketing intelware to law enforcement and intelligence entities stick to the facts about their systems. The flowery language and the truth-stretching lingo must be decreased. Why do intelware vendors experience brutal churn among licensees? The distance between the reality of the system and the assertions made to sell the system.
Second, procurement processes and procurement professionals must become advocates for reform. Vendors often provide “free” trials and then work to get “on the budget.” The present procurement methods can lead to wasted time, money, and contracting missteps. Outside-the-box ideas like a software sandbox require consideration. (If you want to know more about this, message me.)
Third, consulting firms which are often quick to offer higher salaries to cyber investigators need to evaluate the impact of their actions on investigative units. There is no regulatory authority monitoring the behavior of these firms. The Wild West of cyber investigator poaching hampers some investigations. Legislation perhaps? More attention from the Federal Trade Commission maybe? Putting the needs of the investigators ahead of the needs of the partners in the consulting firms?
Fourth, a stepped up recruitment effort is needed to attract investigators to the agencies engaged in dealing with cyber crime. In my years of work for the US government and related entities, I learned that government units are not very good at identifying, enlisting, and retaining talent. This is an administrative function that requires more attention from individuals with senior administrative responsibilities. Perhaps 2023 will generate some progress in this core personnel function.
Don’t get me wrong. I am optimistic about smart software. I believe techniques to identify and filter weaponized information can be enhanced and improved. I am confident that forward leaning professionals in government agencies can have a meaningful impact on institutionalized procedures and methods associated with fighting cyber crime.
My team and I are committed to conducting research and sharing our insights with law enforcement and intelligence professionals in 2023. My hope is that others will adopt a similar “give back” and “pay it forward” approach in 2023 in the midst of feasts, famines, and poisoned data.
Thank you for reading. — Stephen E Arnold, January 11, 2023
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