Mobile Choke: Google Breathing Apple iPhone Exhaust
August 15, 2008
I’m back in scenic Illinois, an hour out of Chicago without traffic. A day or two is the traffic is heavy. I had plenty of time to read about Apple’s market capitalization floating above Google’s. A useful take on this remarkable Apple surge is the ZDNet story “Apple Market Capitalization Tops Google” by Jason O’Grady here . I loved the last line of the article, “Take that Sergey and Brin.” [sic]
Gaffes aside, the market cap is a complement to the even bigger news that Android may become available in September 2008. I noticed this interesting story Google Android flaws pushing software firms awards iPhone by Aidan Malley for Apple Insider. The key point was this comment:
Google is not only perceived as driving developers away but of violating the open-source mantra it took on by creating a mobile operating system, shutting out many who could contribute to the development process. Some of these have since switched or expressed a desire to switch to iPhone development in retaliation for the seeming bias on Google’s part.
Now I don’t believe that developers are abandoning anything. Google is parsimonious with its pre release code. Without Android “in the wild”, there’s interest and possibly caution. How can a developer abandon something before it really arrives. Google’s perpetual betas and that legacy is quite real.
The more troubling fact is that Apple is selling a truck load of iPhones. The data seem solid, but when it comes to counting how many widgets actually sell, I’ve found that it’s wise to exercise caution. Nevertheless, the iPhone (which is certainly not without its share of problems) is leading to great PR for Taiwanese manufacturers working overtime to build the slick devices. Seeking Alpha has a representative approach to this “surge” of demand here.
My take on all this is typical of the addled goose at this Web log. Specifically, I think Google missed the window of opportunity to seize the advantage from Apple and other companies in the mobile hardware-software space.
Apple got there first, grabbed the lead in hot mobile devices, and follwed up with cloud services and downloadable applications.
Google has recruited an impressive cadre of sprinters, but it has not run the race yet. Google’s position in similar to a runner arriving at the venue a day after the race took place. The runner will get another chance, but that adds to the challenge.
Google is now in a position with which it is not familiar–behind..Apple’s speedy bunny is keeping ahead of mighty Googzilla.
Can Google catch up with Apple? Can Google dominate mobile hardware and software the way the company does in Web search and advertising? Can Apple lose its way, particularly if there are serious problems with the firmware in the Version 2.x iPhone or a change of management at Apple buffets the orchard?
The answer to each of these questions is, “Yes!”
But in my opinion I don’t think Google has much experience in addressing this type of challenge. The rocket boost for Web search was AltaVista.com engineers. The thruster for online ads was the GoTo/Overture model.
Google’s Jedi knights can be very clever. With time a critical factor, it will be interesting to me to see Google leverage its significant intellectual property in mobile services and search to leap frog Apple.
I have never seen Googzilla play leap fang. I want to see this happen.
Agree? Disagree?
Stephen Arnold, August 15, 2008
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