Redshift: With Google It Depends From Where You Observe
September 10, 2008
My research suggests that opportunities, money, and customers are rushing toward Google. Competitors–like publishers–are trying to rush away, but the “gravitational pull” is too great. Traditional publishers don’t have the escape velocity to break away. What is this a redshift or a blueshift?
Dr. Greg Papadopoulos, Sun Microsystems wizard, gave a talk at the 2007 Analyst Summit (summit is an over used word in the conference universe in my opinion) called “Redshift: The Explosion of Massive Scale Systems.” I think much of the analysis is right on, but the notion of a “redshift” (not a misspelling) applies to rushing away from something, not rushing toward something. You can download a copy of this interesting presentation here. (Verified on September 9, 2008).
Dr. Papadopoulos referenced Google in this lecture in 2007. For the purposes of this post, I will think of his remarks as concerning Google. I’m a captive of my own narrow research. I think that’s why this presentation nagged at my mind for a year. Today, reading about hadron colliders and string theory, I realized that it depends on where one stands when observing Doppler effects. From my vantage point, I don’t think Google was a redshift. You can brush up on this notion by scanning the Wikipedia entry, which seems okay to me, but I am no theoretical physicist. I did work at a nuclear engineering firm, but I worked on goose feathers, not gluons and colors. From what I recall, when the object speeds away from the observer, you get the “red shift”. When the object rushes towards the observer, you get the blue shift. Redshift means the universe is expanding when one observes certain phenomena from earth. Blueshift means something is coming at you. Google is pretty darn blue to my eyes.
The Papadopoulos presentation contains a wealth of interesting and useful data. I am fighting the urge to cut, paste, borrow, and recycle. But there are three points that warrant a comment.
- Computers are getting faster and memory cheaper. It’s always good to keep in mind that speed and storage make certain processes feasible. Google’s technology is not inherently “new”; Google is a recycler on a grand scale.
- Google means “brutal efficiency”. When I hear this phrase, I think of Darth Vader and his DeathStar. The Googlesphere can attract and it can attach tractor beams that pull people, events, and data to it. Keep in mind that this is a metaphor and that Messrs Brin and Page are on the good side of the Force.
- Bandwidth is needed to make the “red shift” system work. (In my opinion, bandwidth in servers and from other nodes remains an issue for some of the flashier functions Mr. Papadopoulos references in his lecture.)
For the record, I agree with most of the analysis except for one thing. I think the notion of “redshift” regarding Google is upside down and backwards. Here’s why:
Google has emerged in the midst of a thriving information ecosystem. As lousy as most free online services are, Google emerged and has attracted users, advertisers, hangers on, and partners. This is not a red shift. Google is plopped in the middle of a “space”–market space not interstellar space”–and has been pulling traffic, money, and customers. More significantly, it has grown. I think of it as a Googley black hole or a digital Juipter with its eerie illumination coming from lava lamps.
The point is that Google is an attractor. In some scientific disciplines, there’s a notion of a strange attractor. The point manifests itself and “pulls” and “pushes” numbers, particles, or other actors to it. If you are a traditional newspaper, you would be seeing a blueshift; that is, you are falling toward Google. The most recent round of Gray Lady layoffs may have been perceived as a “bolt from the blue” to the terminated New York Times’ employees. Google isn’t going anywhere; you are rushing into the Google maw. The same applies to companies blissfully unaware that Google’s pull is working like gravity on them. At some point, fringe competitors may find themselves rushing or being pulled into Google. The less metaphorical see Google sucking money to itself, which is happening despite the best efforts of lawyers, regulators, and competitors.
So, for my purpose in this essay, Google is a blue shift operation. And if anyone doubts this, look at the postings about Google on news aggregation sites. Heck, just look at the coverage the New York Times, Business Week, and Fortune lavish on the company. Pretty remarkable. Google is pulling in the “mainstream media”, at least while these outfits are still in business. New York ad executives are finally realizing that Google is not part of the advertising business. Google is becoming * advertising *.
My research suggests that the rush to Google is accelerating. Chrome is no operating system, but it is going to pull developers to Google. The future for Google is to deliver services that just are. No browser needed, thank you. Chrome is a way station on Google’s application interstate highway, not a destination. The net net for me is that we have to think of Google as a gravitational force that is pulling “stuff” to it. Redshift is the wrong way around when it comes to understanding the Google effect.
Stephen Arnold, September 10, 2008
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