Google China: Pundits and Mavens Rev Their Engines

March 20, 2010

Google has to decide what to do about China. I think I heard this on one of the TV news shows that the goslings run when NCAA games are not on the boob tube nailed to a tree on the shore of the goose pond. I think the person making this statement displayed a snapshot of Mrs. Clinton, but maybe it was another luminary.

I read “Opinion: Why Google should stay in China”, which explained what Google should do this way:

Google’s actions will only hurt Google, its shareholders, and those that depend on the Web 2.0 ecosystems Google has been nurturing. By closing the development offices, Google will lose a lifeline into a vibrant economy and culture, one that that it desperately needs to understand and leverage in order to continue its historic growth in the years ahead. This lack of understanding was plain in the way Google made its decision – unilaterally and without even consulting its experts inside China. You need those people, Google, and so do we. So please swallow your own pride and reconsider before abandoning them.

Sounds good. The only hitch in the git along is that the author is not calling the shots for the Google.

I scanned an azure chip consultant’s analysis of the China market. I think the numbers in “Gartner says China will be World’s Fastest Growing Enterprise Software Market Through 2013” are probably fuzzy, but whatever those numbers are, China is a big market.

If the Google bails, my hunch is that some Type A MBA money managers will want to know:

Why is the Google NOT maximizing shareholder value. China is not Albania.
What is going to be done to pump up Google’s share price without a really big, juicy market to penetrate?
Who will be the candidates for the new Google management team if shareholders revolt?

I don’t have any answers, and I don’t think Google’s chess game with China is unfolding with the inevitability Google anticipated.

Stephen E Arnold, March 19, 2010

Free blog and an free article. What could be better? I will report my working without pay to the Department of Labor, where hard work is the norm and that work is not performed by workers for free.

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under Business strategy, Financial, Google, News, Search

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.