Google Slowdown Identified

April 1, 2010

Bloomberg’s “China Is Least of Google’s Woes as Slowdown Looms” identified the cat that has been out of the bag since the middle of 2009. The Bloomberg story stamps “Official” and “Declassified” on the Google matter. In addition to the $1.0 Viacom litigation, Google has made headlines with its interesting decision to stand up to a country. I think that the approach taken years ago to control countries was dicey, but the Google method lit up the addled goose’s riskometer. The Bloomberg writers said:

As sales gains diminish, some investors are concerned that Google has begun to resemble Microsoft Corp., which generates billions of dollars in cash from its mature flagship business yet has struggled to conquer new markets. Google’s sales increased 9 percent last year after almost doubling in 2005.

Money is an issue. But the more troubling aspect is that Google may be leaving money on the table by conceding the fragile but large China market to others. Financial whiz kids with big smiles want those Baidu bucks flowing into the the Google holdings. Google’s interesting decision to stand up to a country with an army, a secret service, and rule making ability means that Google is giving a free pass to others, including Microsoft.

Who will be on the hot seat? Google management. For me, the Bloomberg story marks the start of increasing investor scrutiny.

Stephen E Arnold, April 1, 2010

A freebie. Not an April fools’ joke.

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