Web Search Share and Tea Leaves
May 13, 2010
I read BusinessInsider’s “April Search Numbers Out! Yahoo Gains Share Because Of New Slideshow Tool” and was more confused than before reading the summary of comScore’s league table data. I think that with each passing month, the analyses of what happens to Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo is less and less germane to my work.
Two quick examples.
The first item is from this passage: “On a reported basis, Google lost ~70 bps of search share in April vs. March, while Yahoo! was the main beneficiary, up ~80 bps.” I have no idea what this means, and I am not convinced that the metric is significant. Back to Stats 101 for method, margin of error, etc.
The second item is from this passage: “According to the data, total US core search volume increased 5.3% Y/Y in April, a deceleration from 7.6% growth in March. However, adjusting for the impact of user interface changes, we estimate that search volume was up ~3% Y/Y. The April growth level was also below 1Q’s 10.1% Y/Y growth.” My question, “What?”
When I look at the data, I don’t see much more than tea leaves. Over the last three or four years, my perception says, “Google is far ahead. Microsoft has made some modest gains. Yahoo remains a mystery because it is not in the search business. Other search vendors are marginal players.”
Feel free to disagree but these séances with comScore-like data echo the Ouija board trend. Knee shaking cannot move the dial, however.
Stephen E Arnold, May 13, 2010
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