Microsoft Headed for a Collapse
June 22, 2010
Business Insider ran a story that will definitely get clicks. The headline is “The Odds Are Increasing that Microsoft’s Business Will Collapse.” I don’t buy the argument, but you may. The idea is that the company has “lots of different businesses” and there is trouble a plenty. For me, one of the most interesting passages was:
Right now, the investors are concluding that Microsoft will gradually become the equivalent of a technology utility–a boring but necessary provider of the software that runs the world’s business community. A smaller, more optimistic crowd is still arguing that, one day, Microsoft will be able to turn its fortunes around, and fight its way back into an industry leadership position. What almost no one is talking about is a third possibility, one that becomes more likely by the day: The possibility that, a couple of years down the road, Microsoft’s business may just completely collapse.
Now the problem as viewed from the goose pond in Harrod’s Creek is simple.
- Wall Street wizards know that IBM pulled back from the brink, became a consulting firm, and became a good news story. Won’t Microsoft follow a similar trajectory?
- Maybe not because the Wall Street wizards could break up the company, make big fees, and the smaller entities be left to sink or swim. Did I mention really big fees?
- With the mantra of “too big to fail” echoing in the hollow adjacent the goose pond, maybe the lobbyists will focus their efforts on one of the those weekend deals like the one that “saved” BearStearns
- And what if the giant $65 billion machine just keeps rolling along. Even with adversaries like Apple and Google, Microsoft has lots of customers, certified professionals, gold resellers, and rank and file Word users who may resist change.
I like the “Will Collapse” angle. I just don’t think “collapse” is the right word. Great click catnip, however.
Stephen E Arnold, June 22, 2010
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