The Bonsai Method: Google and Change
October 24, 2010
When I was in Japan, I watched a bonsai “treasure” work his magic. I liked the idea of binding young shoots with wire and forcing the malleable living things to do what the “treasure wanted.” My guide explained that the “national treasure” could convert any species of tree into a model railroad scale plant. Remarkable.
The problem is that companies in general and a 12 year old Google in particular do not respond to the bonsai master’s interventions the way a sprouting maple does.
Let’s face it. Google is not likely to change in a meaningful way. The aircraft carrier is underway. Even a minor course correction takes a long time. Think about the six versions of the Google Search Appliance before Google could hook Google Apps content into the system.
Can the Google oak tree be shaped into a bonsai art work? Not likely, grasshopper.
Google has been chugging along on its “controlled chaos” approach to business for 12 years. If you have worked with juvie offenders, you may have encountered some 12 year olds who are going to grow their own way. Those 12 year olds are on their own often predictable path.
“Opinion: Angry birds Android Market Snub Shows Google Has to Change” asserts:
What looks initially to be typical press release waffle is in fact a damning indictment of Google’s Android Market. If its own official retail channel is not seen as the “obvious choice” for a major app developer, something needs to be done to make it so – and fast. Perhaps, in hindsight, we shouldn’t have been so surprised at Rovio’s gutsy move. The signs of general dissatisfaction with Android Market have been there for all to see since its launch. Put bluntly, Android Market is an absolute mess. The navigation experience is blighted by a poor filter system that makes it very hard indeed to hone in on quality paid software. Dubious free ringtone and porn apps clog up the Multimedia, Entertainment, and even Games categories.
The author wanting Google to change is probably not going to do too well at bonsai. How is one to miniature and tame a 12 year old tree? Sure, the tree can be shaped, but the total control stuff is no longer possible. Make a pear tree look like Donald Duck. No problem. Make the pear tree fit into a dish for the dining room sideboard, problem.
I do think Google is changing, but the change has little to do with Angry Birds or even government regulators. Google is changing because of its addiction to money. The shift in StreetView policies is less about fear of legal hassles and mostly about the firm’s ability to get needed data from other methods not widely discussed in the blogosphere.
There are several important changes evident to me. Keep in mind that I look at Google in terms of its technical information freely available as open source content. Here’s my checklist, which you may compare with the Angry Birds’ example in the cited article.
First, Google is going consumer. The company’s roots are in brute force search and solving engineering problems that sank other brute force Web indexing companies. This consumer shift may be a turning point for Google. In my opinion, Google is betting the farm on its understanding of the consumer.
Second, Google faces a world in which Facebook and Apple are the hot tickets. Second or third billing is an issue for those who are sensitive to such shallow accolades. With Xooglers filling the ranks at Facebook, the notion that Google is not number one is a bitter pill in my opinion. Angst can manifest itself in interesting ways. Consider the Google TV which a number of people have found an amusing way to test their technical aptitude. The couch spud? Indifferent.
Third, online advertising is ramping up. But the big money is going to talent centric programming available on the Internet. AdWords is a great business, but a new ad business is emerging and Google has to figure out how to play a big part in that world. Adam Carolla may be a former radio DJ, but his growing empire represents an advertising opportunity that does not lend itself to Google’s algorithms at this moment.
The PocketGamer’s write up about Google and Angry Birds is interesting, but it does not apply to the larger forces at work on and within the Google. Google is in the closing innings of what is its worst public relations year in its 12 year history. Buzz, Wave, Germany, Google Books, and Google TV—quite a track record.
Controlled chaos is the method and it is now showing some flaws. And Google will find it difficult to change. There is no bonsai master able to take a 12 year old tree and squish it down to a seven inch living entity. One big tree does not make a forest.
Stephen E Arnold, October 24, 2010
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