Android: A Success with Some Weaknesses

November 23, 2010

“Android Fail? 25% Worldwide Market Share Says “Not So Much” is one of those write ups that puzzle me. The author references another blog on the ZDNet service, sort of disagrees, but focuses on poobahing from the Harvard Business Review. I think the HBR has a great reputation, but have you check the US economy lately. Harvard has contributed some “greed is good” types who seem to have muffed Business 1.0 and are on the path to degradation for Business 2.0.

The idea is that Google has a 25 percent market share for its open source mobile operating system Android. That is a big chunk of a market. No argument. Here’s the passage that caught my attention:

Sure, open sourcing Android has and will result in some collateral damage. And Google is going to have to begin exerting some control over upgrade cycles with carriers to reduce fragmentation, which I frankly think is a far bigger problem than Baidu remaining dominant in Chinese search (this is nothing new). However, millions and millions of handsets, emerging tablets and similar devices, and now Google TV, all running Android, mean that Google shouldn’t be losing too much sleep over the Motorola Citrus.

My thought is that once the horse is out of the barn and galloping down Open Source Lane, getting the horse back in the barn may be difficult, if not impossible. Mobile advertising will be a big deal, and the fact that Baidu and Microsoft have wiggled on phones as search providers is interesting. More interesting to me is that Google has blown off China, and some of the telcos may use Android and leave some of the other Googley services buried deep in obscure menus.

But back to the Harvard reference. Maybe these Harvard Business Review assertions are correct. Google will learn tout de suite how Oracle will deal with the Java open source issue. Google may win, leaving Oracle an also ran. Google has some analysts in check, but I think fragmentation, China, and the telcos are going to be another cluster of challenges no matter how much money Google has.

Stephen E Arnold, November 23, 2010

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Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under Business strategy, Google, Mobile, News

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.