Microsoft Favored to Win Smartphone War, Really?

April 10, 2011

I am an optimist. I see blue sky behind gray clouds. I see flowers beneath the snow.

Here in Kentucky, we figured it was wishful thinking to include the University of Kentucky Wildcats in the final four on the March Madness brackets. We were all very surprised when this ideal became a reality. However, we believe this is just poor statistical reasoning: “IDC Beancounters Predict Microsoft to Win Smartphone War.” Wow. Microsoft cannot update its smartphone software. I don’t know one person who owns a Microsoft smartphone.

By 2015, the IDC states that Android will be the top smartphone competitor, followed closely by Microsoft. Apple will be booted down to third place. Android will continue to dominate, however, with half the market and the other divided between Blackberry and Apple based off current market predictions. According to the write up:

The report said that smartphone vendors will ship a total of more than 450 million smartphones this year, up from 303.4 million in 2010. IDC predicts that the smartphone market will grow four times faster than the overall handset market.

Other predictions include the Symbian market will transfer to Microsoft after its recent merger with Nokia and Hewlett Packard’s WebOS will never gain much of a foothold. Don’t rely heavily on IDC’s predictions. Back in 2006, the beancounters never accounted for the rise of the iPhone or Android. The University of Kentucky’s win was a sweet surprise, but based off current market trends unless Microsoft creates the next big phone, Android runs out of batteries, or Apple just fails, this won’t happen. And I am an optimist, not a consulting firm trying to pump up revenues, get headlines, and compete with other mid tier consulting firms for clients.

Even more intereseting is that Gartner, a rival to IDC, issued a report that said the same thing. You can check out the Gartner predictions at http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614.

Coincidence or a Microsoft PR push? We will never offer an opinion on the cheesecloth separating independent consulting firrms and clients with a real need to flash cash.

Whitney Grace, April 10, 2011

Freebie

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under Business strategy, Consulting, Marketing, Microsoft, Mobile, News

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.