Google and Prediction: Not Thin Gruel, Please
April 28, 2013
The Google religion continues to diffuse in the UK. I read “Google Searches Predict Market Moves.” Predictive analytics can be useful. Years ago I was on the Board of Directors of NuTech Solutions, one of the then world leading firms in predictive analytics. The methods of what I call fancy math are extremely useful. Applications range from identifying markets in which certain type of automobiles are likely to sell to figuring out when to cut back on power plant operation to reduce pollution are of great value. However, fancy math based on mereology or more familiar techniques have limitations. What’s interesting is that the limitations of fancy math are of less interest than the science fiction types of applications which catch the attention of folks who write about math as opposed to do math.
Here’s a passage in the write up which I noticed:
Google’s own researchers found that searches can track the spread of influenza and more recently showed that they “predict the present”with regard to economic indicators. In 2011, the Bank of England determined that searches for relevant terms could even predict house prices.
Useful indeed. Now here’s the snippet I circled with my yellow highlighter:
The researchers have already been approached by executives within the financial industry to try to put their findings to use, and have recently received a grant from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council to develop a “big data” software platform specifically aimed at the emerging business models that will depend on it.
The idea is that Google and those in the know can make money, save lives, and in general just do good stuff is compelling.
I would point out that Google has a number of systems and methods which make use of fancy math, Google generated metadata, and data provided by users and computer processes. These systems and methods are not new to Google. It would have been gratifying to some Googlers to have their work recognized. I think a reference to the work of Ramanathan Guha and Alon Halevy would have moved the write up from “gee, this is hot now” to a more foundational approach.
The write up would have gained impact in my opinion with a reference to Google’s support of the systems and methods of Recorded Future. Founded by the person who developed Spotfire, now owned by Tibco, is a cutting edge approach to generating actionable output from a range of data, including stock market related information. I can read the BBC story as if the information were based solely on Recorded Future’s capabilities. Note that Recorded Future has, in my opinion, pushed beyond some of its direct competitors like Digital Reasoning, Talend, and other firms in this market.
Yes, Google has formidable fancy math capabilities. I would be a happier old observer if those writing about fancy math included more substance in the write ups about Google. The thin gruel does not do Google justice nor does it present the scope of Google’s capabilities in an informed, rich context.
Stephen E Arnold, April 28, 2013
Sponsored by Augmentext, which also uses some fancy math
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