Neuroscientists Advance Predictive Analytics
November 12, 2013
Where do the fields of neuroscience and predictive analytics intersect? Apparently at the University of Sussex. Phys.org reveals, “Scientists Identify a Mathematical ‘Crystal Ball’ that May Predict Calamities.” It makes sense when you consider that both disciplines deal with complex systems.
In systems ranging in scale from the planet’s climate to an epileptic’s brain, the transition from a healthy to an unhealthy state is marked by a peak in information flow between elements. Until now, it has been difficult to impossible to predict these peaks in advance. Working together, scientists from the University of Sussex’s Sackler Centre for Consciousness Science and the Centre for Research in Complex Systems at Australia’s Charles Sturt University have made a breakthrough regarding such predictions. The article explains:
“Essentially this means finding a way to characterize, mathematically, the extent to which the parts of a complex system are simultaneously segregated (they all behave differently) and integrated (they all depend on each other). In the present study the research team managed to do just this, and to show for the first time that their measure reliably predicts phase transitions in standard systems studied by physicists now for many decades (the so-called ‘Ising’ model).
“Professor Anil Seth, Co-Director of the Sackler Centre, says: ‘The implications of the work are far-reaching. If the results generalise to other real-world systems, we might have ways of predicting calamitous events before they happen, which would open the possibility for intervention to prevent the transition from occurring.'”
Such interventions would obviously be beneficial in many circumstances. As this science progresses, we may be surprised at how widely the method could be applied. The possibilities seem endless. Can an application to horse racing be far behind?
Cynthia Murrell, November 12, 2013
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