Toffler Redux: A Third Wave of Artificial Intelligence. Did We Miss Waves One and Two?
February 28, 2018
Artificial Intelligence is becoming a daily part of life, heck maybe even a minute-by-minute part of life depending on how you spend your days. However, this technology didn’t simply drop out of the sky and into our phones and computers. We are actually in the midst of a 60-year story of the technology that is actually evolving right in front of our eyes. We learned more from Sung-Soo Kim’s blog and its recent history, “Artificial Intelligence 3.0—The Third Wave of AI.”
What does AI 3.0 look like? Here’s how Kim put it:
“All digital, connected and open technologies raise issues of security and cyber security. A useful combination of AI approaches and techniques is likely to be the subject of further experimentation in coming years. One example might be the use of AI-based tutoring and immersive systems, along with game technology to enhance education and training.”
AI is becoming integrated into our lives and we are currently undergoing a disruption. As can be expected, this scares a lot of people. While it is true that AI will likely replace a lot of manual jobs over the coming decade, one area of hope gets overlooked routinely. Many are saying that the third wave of AI will actually create jobs, lots of jobs, and soon. According to Gartner Research, by 2020 AI will create 2.3 million new jobs. So, perhaps, it’s time to take a breath and find a way to make this new wave of tech work for us instead of against us.
Patrick Roland, February 28, 2018
Secrets via Social Media
February 28, 2018
Social media has been under fire for its lax policies on fake news. While they are aiming to correct the algorithmic chaos that has led to such an unhappy state of business, this is not the only way in which the format is being used for odd deeds. One of the strangest came from Yahoo! Finance’s story, “NSA Sent Coded Messages Through Twitter.”
According to the story:
“…the National Security Agency used Twitter to send “nearly a dozen” coded messages to a Russian contact claiming to have agency data stolen by the Shadow Brokers. Reportedly, the NSA would tell the Russian to expect public tweets in advance, either to signal an intent to make contact or to prove that it was involved and was open to further chats.”
This made headlines for two reasons. One, because the Russian contact offered the NSA suspicious information on President Trump that the NSA declined to accept. Second, that a spy agency would do its business on such a public forum. For those of us who love a good spy novel or The Americans, we assume this type of clandestine communication is done in the shadows and back alleys. However, Tweeting to spy contacts falls right in line with espionage’s history of using public forums for secret messages. Take, for example, the Cold War tradition of running numbers stations. For decades, spooky coded messages were broadcast on a variety of shortwave radio stations around the globe, which many believe was a worldwide way of spies to communicate…right out in the open. So, think of Twitter as a modern day shortwave radio. The NSA already does.
Patrick Roland, February 27, 2018
Amazon Beats Google for Holiday Advertising
February 28, 2018
When Google first started out, it earned the majority of its income from online ads. Online advertising used to be a surefire way for a regular income, but ad blockers, private browsing, and changes in the Internet of things have made Internet ad profits dwindle from dollars to cents. Google used to be on top, but now Amazon might be angling its way to the top. AdTechDaily published the article, “Amazon Leads The Crowd For Holiday Paid Search Advertising” how who dominated the 2017 holiday advertising market.
The data in the article is about Amazon UK, but the UK usually bears a strong resemblance to its American counterpart. Kantar Media conducted a survey about click rates for UK retailers in the 2017 holiday season. Amazon captured 8.8% of mobile ad clicks and 7.5% of desktop clicks. The data collection for the survey was quite enlightening:
Kantar Media found that 4,259 advertisers sponsored the keywords via text ads on mobile search, compared with 3,798 advertisers sponsoring the same keywords via desktop search. Of these, only seven retailers generated a click share higher than 1% for both desktop and mobile search text advertising. Together, these retailers captured a combined 26% share of all desktop clicks and 28% of mobile clicks on the 990 retail keywords studied.Online giant Amazon.co.uk held a significant lead ahead of Argos, the retailer in second place for both desktop and mobile search ad clicks. Currys, John Lewis and online marketplace AO.com completed the top five in the list.
Google is a competitive advertising marketplace, but large retailers have the deep pockets and large inventories to give them a run or a “click” for their money The retailers sponsor a higher number of keywords based on their inventories, so they can have bigger ad campaigns with bigger budgets. It also does not hurt to have well-known brands in their inventories. Luxury brands are always reliable.
Google is struggling with its online ads, shall we call this the Froogle Fumble?
Whitney Grace, February 28, 2018
Governance: Now That Is a Management Touchstone for MBA Experts
February 27, 2018
I read “Unlocking the Power of Today’s Big Data through Governance.” Quite a lab grown meat wiener that “unlocking,” “power,” “Big Data,” and “governance” statement is that headline. Yep, IDG, the outfit which cannot govern its own agreements with the people the firm pays to make the IDG experts so darned smart. (For the back-story, check out this snapshot of governance in action.)
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What’s the write up with the magical word governance about?
Instead of defining “governance,” I learn what governance is not; to wit:
Data governance isn’t about creating a veil of secrecy around data
I have zero idea what this means. Back to the word “governance.” Google and Wikipedia define the word in this way:
Governance is all of the processes of governing, whether undertaken by a government, market or network, whether over a family, tribe, formal or informal organization or territory and whether through the laws, norms, power or language of an organized society.
Okay, governing. What’s governing mean? Back to the GOOG. Here’s one definition which seems germane to MBA speakers:
control, influence, or regulate (a person, action, or course of events).
The essay drags out the chestnuts about lots of information. Okay, I think I understand because Big Data has been touted for many years. Now, mercifully I assert, the drums are beating out the rhythm of “artificial intelligence” and its handmaiden “algos,” the terrific abbreviation some of the marketing jazzed engineers have coined. Right, algos, bro.
What’s the control angle for Big Data? The answer is that “data governance” will deal with:
- Shoddy data
- Incomplete data
- Off point data
- Made up data
- Incorrect data
Presumably these thorny issues will yield to a manager who knows the ins and outs of governance. I suppose there are many experts in governance; for example, the fine folks who have tamed content chaos with their “governance” of content management systems or the archiving mavens who have figured out what to do with tweets at the Library of Congress. (The answer is to not archive tweets. There you go. Governance in action.)
The article suggests a “definitive data governance program.” Right. If one cannot deal with backfiles, changes to the data in the archives, and the new flows of data—how does one do the “definitive governance program” thing? The answer is, “Generate MBA baloney and toss around buzzwords.” Check out the list of tasks which, in my experience, are difficult to accomplish when resources are available and the organization has a can-do attitude:
- Document data and show its lineage.
- Set appropriate policies, and enforce them.
- Address roles and responsibilities of everyone who touches that data, encouraging collaboration across the organization.
These types of tasks are the life blood of consultants who purport to have the ability to deliver the near impossible.
What happens if we apply the guidelines in the Governance article to the data sets listed in “Big Data And AI: 30 Amazing (And Free) Public Data Sources For 2018.” In my experience, the cost of normalizing the data is likely to be out of reach for most organizations. Once these data have been put in a form that permits machine-based quality checks, the organization has to figure out what questions the data can answer with a reasonable level of confidence. Getting over these hurdles then raises the question, “Are these data up to date?” And, if the data are stale, “How do we update the information?” There are, of course, other questions, but the flag waving about governance operates at an Ivory Tower level. Dealing with data takes place with one’s knees on the ground and one’s hands in the dirt. If the public data sources are not pulling the hay wagon, what’s the time, cost, and complexity of obtaining original data sets, validating them, and whipping them into shape for use by an MBA?
You know the answer: “This is not going to happen.”
Here’s a paragraph which I circled in Oscar Mayer wiener pink:
One of the more significant, and exciting, changes in data governance has been the shift in focus to business users. Historically, data has been a technical issue owned by IT and locked within the organization by specific functions and silos. But if data is truly going to be an asset, everyday users—those who need to apply the data in different contexts—must have access and control over it and trust the data. As such, data governance is transforming from a technical tool to a business application. And chief data officers (CDOs) are starting to see the technologies behind data governance as their critical operating environment, in much the same way SAP serves CFOs, and Salesforce supports CROs. It is rare to find an opportunity to build a new system of record for a market.
Let’s look at this low calorie morsel and consider some of its constituent elements. (Have you ever seen wieners being manufactured? Fill in that gap in your education if you have not had the first hand learning experience.)
First, business users want to see a pretty dashboard, click on something that looks interesting in a visualization, and have an answer delivered. Most of the business people I know struggle to understand if the data in their system is accurate and limited expertise to understand the mathematical processes which churn away to display an “answer.”
The reference to SAP is fascinating, but I think of IBM-type systems as somewhat out of step with the more sophisticated tools available to deal with certain data problems. In short, SAP is an artifact of an earlier era, and its lessons, even when understood, have been inadequate in the era of real time data analysis.
Let me be clear: Data governance is a management malarkey. Look closely at organizations which are successful. Peer inside their data environments. When I have looked, I have seen clever solutions to specific problems. The cleverness can create its own set of challenges.
The difference between a Google and a Qwant, a LookingGlass Cyber and IBM i2, or Amazon and Wal-Mart is not Big Data. It is not the textbook definition of “governance.” Success has more to do with effective problem solving on a set of data required by a task. Google sells ads and deals with Big Data to achieve its revenue goals. LookingGlass addresses chat information for a specific case. Amazon recommends products in order to sell more products.
Experts who invoke governance on a broad scale as a management solution are disconnected from the discipline required to identify a problem and deal with data required to solve that problem.
Few organizations can do this with their “content management systems”, their “business intelligence systems,” or their “product information systems.” Why? Talking about a problem is not solving a problem.
Governance is wishful thinking and not something that is delivered by a consultant. Governance is an emergent characteristic of successful problem solving. Governance is not paint; it is not delivered by an MBA and a PowerPoint; it is not a core competency of jargon.
In Harrod’s Creek, governance is getting chicken to the stores in the UK. Whoops. That management governance is not working. So much in modern business does not work very well.
Stephen E Arnold, February 27, 2018
Step Into the Dark Web My Sweet
February 27, 2018
Parents tell their children, “If you do not go looking for trouble, it will not come looking for you.” How many of us would like to believe this is true? Sometimes, without even trying, trouble finds us and we can become entangled in illegal activities. One of the benefits of the Dark Web (if there are any) is that it is very hard to stumble upon and get in trouble. The Dark Web requires a special browser, then you need to search for the Web site addresses, and most of the time those do not work. If you do get embroiled in the Dark Web, merchants of illegal goods will do their best to earn your trust and your dollars. Natuilus explains how in the article, “How Darknet Sellers Built Trust.”
There is always a risk buying online, even from reputable places like eBay and Amazon. The Dark Web, however, has a very high buyer satisfaction rate and sellers are reputable. One would think that the Dark Web would be chock full of scammers, but it is not. Before the FBI shut down the Silk Road in 2013, an illegal drug marketplace, more than 100 of drug orders the agency placed tested for high purity levels.
Reputation is everything for Dark Web sellers and their selling profiles mirror eBay and Amazon. There are even discount programs, sales, and loyalty programs; even more amazing are the sellers that appeal to buyer’s ethics by selling “organic” and “conflict-free” drugs. While Dark Web sellers have a high approval rate, it is possible that the feedback is inflated.
Social pressure encourages us to leave high scores in public forums. If you have experienced an Uber driver saying at the end of a trip, “You give me five stars, I’ll give you five stars, ” that’s tit for tat or grade inflation in action. I know I’m reluctant to give a driver a rating lower than four stars even if I have sat white-knuckled during the ride as he whizzed through lights and cut corners. Drivers risk being kicked off the Uber platform if their ratings dip below 4.6 and I don’t want to be responsible for them losing, in some instances, their livelihood. Maybe they are just having a bad day. That, and the driver knows where I live. In other words, reviews spring from a complex web of fear and hope. Whether we are using our real name or a pseudonym, we fear retaliation and also hope our niceties will be reciprocated.
Despite the “inflation,” sellers and buyers are quite happy with their illegal marketplace. It takes the place of the street dealer and there is a chain of accountability in online discussion forums. The risk factor is also taken out. It is a lot safer to have drugs delivered to a mailbox than meeting someone in a dark alley.
The Dark Web marketplace is a white collar retail experience, except the products sold, are illegal. At least they offer discounts on multiple purchases and fewer stabbings.
Whitney Grace, February 27, 2018
DarkCyber, February 27, 2018, Now Available
February 27, 2018
The DarkCyber video news program about the Dark Web and lesser known Internet services is now available. The program can be viewed at http://www.arnoldit.com/wordpress and on Vimeo at https://vimeo.com/257348721 . The program features Stephen E Arnold, author of CyberOSINT and The Dark Web Notebook.
This week’s program covers research which explains why Dark Web vendors of controlled substances offer free samples. Unlike street dealers who use samples to “hook” new users, Dark Web merchants have another goal in mind. Dark Web drug buyers can leave reviews about the quality of product and the reliability of a Dark Web vendor. The free samples are designed to cause people who post an Amazon-style recommendation about a drug market that is positive.
What motivates an individual to use the Dark Web to locate and acquire child pornography? Researchers from Australia have offered a mathematical procedure to identifying specific characteristics which help answer this question. An analysis of Dark Web traffic combined with streamlined analytic techniques yield a partial answer. Not too surprisingly, greed and desire are the fuel which contribute to the behavior.
Stephen E Arnold said:
“The development of the Tor Use Motivation Module or TMM allows more precise and rapid analysis of hidden Web data. The benefit is that identification of bad actors now consumes fewer computational resources and generates results in minutes, not days.”
DarkCyber reports that open source software can be used to obtain information from multiple Dark Web sites or probe a specific Dark Web site for intelligence. A series of informative articles with code snippets allows a person with average programming skills to conduct a Dark Web intelligence operation.
The Georgia Bureau of Investigation, working with the US FBI uncovered and shut down a sex trafficking service in the Peach state. A human trafficking circuit operated between Atlanta and three other Georgia cites.
About Stephen E Arnold
Stephen E Arnold is the author of “Dark Web Notebook” and “CyberOSINT: Next Generation Information Access.” He lectures at the Telestrategies ISS conferences about Dark Web and lesser known Internet security threats. His training programs for law enforcement and intelligence professionals reach hundreds of operating personnel each year and influence agent instructional programs in the US and in other countries. He provides strategic information services to clients worldwide. His services include analysis, investigation support, and training to commercial organizations and government agencies. His daily blog Beyond Search is available at www.arnoldit.com/wordpress.
Kenny Toth, February 27, 2018
Hulbee: Enterprise Intranet Search System
February 26, 2018
I associated the Hulbee brand with the Web search system Swisscows. Like Exalead and Qwant, Swisscows provides a user friendly search system. Key in some words, and Swisscows delivers the results. I ran a query for the UK smart software system SherlockML and received these results:
The distinctive features of the system struck me as:
- Privacy-centric. The queries are not retained by Swisscows.
- The system filters to eliminate violent and pornographic videos. Overt queries return no results. Certain queries return results which might raise some users’ hackles.
- Search results appear to come from Microsoft Bing, a “partnership.”
- Tile search which are clickable rectangular blocks of related content. which are similar to the Ben Shneiderman inspired visualizations for presenting search results, but Swisscows cleans up and makes more usable the visuals
- An icon which sends the user to the page in the results list. Most search engines display a hyperlink, which can be difficult to top accurately on some mobile device display screens
- The key search term presented in a white block with “closeness” of other concepts and terms shown by proximity to the white block; for example, ASI Data is the developer of SherlockML and the company is based in the UK. However, ASI does not appear in the blocks. The idea is a useful one in my idea, but some refinement may be warranted.
I learned from Telecompaper that Hulbee also offers an enterprise search system for Intranet content. The idea is that Hulbee, like Yippy and other search vendors, can be a replacement for the more than 55,000 orphaned Google Search Appliance customers. I often wonder how many of these GSAs are still in use because Google has never provided oodles of data about its misguided, overpriced, and odd ball “one size fits all” approach to what is a highly particularized problem.
Telecompaper reports:
Enterprise Search is flexible and scalable; in addition to internal use, it can also be used on the company’s website and external online shop. The advantage for companies is that they can tailor the search tool to suit their needs, without any external advertising included in the results. Customers can also choose Enterprise Search as a hosted service at Swisscom data centers or an on-premise service on their own servers.
One of company’s promotional videos features — wait for it — Swiss cows, although I am not able to differentiate among cow nationalities:
It seems that “enterprise search for an Intranet” has bundled a number of other search and retrieval functions; for example, Web site search and eCommerce. In my experience, some enterprise search vendors have offered “Swiss Army knife solutions” in the past. The reality of commercial enterprises is that search and retrieval needs are idiosyncratic; for example, lawyers require systems that can be used for eDiscovery, engineers have to locate drawings and their associated products, marketers want to pinpoint versions of PowerPoints, marketing collateral, and email, etc.
If you want more information about Swisscows, navigate to this link. You can check out the personal appeal for a donation from the company’s founder at this Web page.
Give the system a look, please.
Stephen E Arnold, February
IBM Management: The Buffalo Chicken Wing Delivery Method
February 26, 2018
I love IBM. I miss my three IBM PC 704 servers which ran the Threat Open Source Intelligence Gateway for years. Toasty puppies were they. I wondered about IBM’s ability to management development projects when I tried to figure out how Serveraid could lose data so reliably. Oh, well.
I read “IBM Buffalo Billion Project Fails to Deliver.” I know. The association with chicken wings that fail to arrive was not the best metaphor. Perhaps it was the lake effect?
The article’s main idea struck me as IBM’s selling a project and then running into itself. The project was a state funded deal. The idea was to create jobs in booming Buffalo. The article points out:
The company would set up an office downtown, Cuomo announced, with $55 million in state funding for computer equipment and renovations to office space in Key Center at Fountain Plaza. In exchange, IBM promised to create 500 jobs over five years; these positions, one state memo noted, would pay, on average, $70,000 a year. Nothing in IBM’s agreement with the state, however, requires the company to create any particular kind of jobs or specifies how much they will pay.
A former employee described as a “permatemp” without benefits observed:
“‘Y’all know we got bamboozled, right?’”
IBM was to provide services like a customer call center or help desk. The training program reminded me of the IBM documentation to the quad core PC 704s; for example, the article points out:
Their training mostly involved watching PowerPoint presentations. One mislabeled the state Department of Environmental Conservation, calling it the Department of Energy Conservation. Some slides noted that IBM was “still waiting on more information.” Others outlined state programs, only to add “the IBM service desk does not have access to this tool.” Other training sessions took place over speakerphone, sometimes with more than 70 people huddled together, trying to keep quiet so everyone could hear, some taking notes with pen and paper because they were still waiting for their computers.
I noted this interesting factoid in the write up, which, I assume, is actual factual:
The deal with IBM was brokered by former SUNY Polytechnic President Alain Kaloyeros, before his arrest on federal and state corruption charges in late 2016.
Ah, IBM. Let’s ask Watson what’s going on. On second thought, let’s not.
Stephen E Arnold, February 26, 2018
No Google Makes People Go Crazy
February 26, 2018
Beyond being the top search engine in the western world, Google has wormed its way into our daily lives with more than one service. Google offers email, free Web storage, office suite software (word processing, presentations, spreadsheets), blogging software, YouTube, online ad services, and many more. If we did not have Google, many of us would experience withdrawal symptoms. So what would you do without Google? TechCrunch posted the article,“That Time I Got Locked Out Of My Google Account For A Month” and author Ron Miller explained how it impacted his life.
Miller, like most of us, forgot his Google password and jumped through the hoops to recover it. After plying the red tape, he was denied access to his account and was simply locked out. The biggest problem was that he did not have any recourse. As a technology journalist, Miller had Google contacts, but without that access, he did not know what he would have done. Miller’s Google contact tried to get support for his case, but for two weeks he was given the runaround. Finally, the PR contact came through and using an alternate email address, Miller finally had access to his sweet, sweet Google data.
Miller learned that there was little he could have done without his PR contact and others locked out of the accounts are SOL. What is a Google user supposed to do?
The only thing I can suggest, and which I think I will do in the future, is to use a password manager and don’t leave it to chance. One day you could click “Forgot Password” and that could be the last time you access your Google account. Your digital life could be hanging by that thin thread called your password, and if you can’t remember it at some point, it is like you don’t exist and you are cut off.
Hey, Google, please make retrieving a password easier!
Whitney Grace, February 26, 2018
De-Archiving: Where Is the Money to Deliver Digital Beef?
February 25, 2018
I read “De-Archiving: What Is It and Who’s Doing It?” I don’t want to dig into the logical weeds of the essay. Let’s look at one passage I highlighted.
As the cost of hot storage continues to drop, economics work in favor of taking more and more of their stored material and putting it online. Millions of physical documents, films, recordings, photographs, and historical data are being converted to online digital assets every year. Soon, anything that was worth saving will also be worth putting online. Tomorrow’s warehouse will be a data center filled with spinning disks that safely store any valuable data – even if it has to be converted to a digital format first. “De-archiving” will be a new vocab word for enterprises and individuals everywhere – and everyone will be doing it in the near future.
My hunch is that the thought leader who wrote the phrase “anything that was worth saving will be worth putting online” has not checked out the holdings of the Library of Congress. The American Memory project, on which I worked, represents a miniscule percentage of the non text information the LoC has. Toss in text, boxes of manuscripts, and artifacts (3D imaging and indexing). The amount of money required to convert and index the content might stretch the US budget which seems to wobble around with continuing resolutions.
Big ideas are great. Reality may not be as great. Movies which can disintegrate during conversion? Yeah, right. Easy. Economical.
Stephen E Arnold, February 25, 2018
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