Smart Software Is Changing Work: But What about Actual Facts? Maybe the Pandemic? Maybe Revenue Misses?
March 31, 2020
“AI Is Changing Work and Leaders need to Adapt” is a remarkable analysis of what seems to be taking place IRL (in real life) as opposed to the Ivory Tower world of a university business school. Just as economic departments missed the boat on certain economic developments, the business schools are doing their best to make statements oddly out of step with what’s shakin’ and bakin’ here and now.
This write up is an excellent example of what happens when data lag behind actual events. The notion of time is a problem for outfits like Google, but one would assume that the esteemed Harvard Business School would be zippier.
The article appeared on March 24, 2020. The information in the report was a “recent survey.” Yep, that date and time thing seems to elude the reader.
What does the article report?
The advent of AI poses new and unique challenges for business leaders.
Who holds this idea?
Harvard business school alumni.
But who, pray tell, gathered the insights from this “elite group”?
The answer is “A team at the MIT IBM Watson AI Lab.”
Now that’s a research team to respect: A frenemy university and a large US outfit which has become a punch line for wild and crazy assertions about Watson, the cancer curing TV game show winner.
Academic excellence? Objectivity? Substantial research achievements?
Let’s look at what’s reported about the survey of the elite, shall we?
ITEM 1: Job Data
our MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab team analyzed 170 million online job posts between 2010 and 2017. The study’s first implication: While occupations change slowly — over years and even decades — tasks become reorganized at a much faster pace.
So the research team examined online classifieds? What percentage were real jobs? What percentage were placed in order to obtain competitive intelligence? What percentage were red herrings intended to identify disgruntled employees? Those job listings appear to have been assumed to be valid. Okay. Let’s move on.
ITEM 2: Training
Millions of workers will need to be retrained or reskilled as a result of AI over the next three years, according to a recent IBM Institute for Business Value study.
What no data? That’s right. The findings are a marketing and PR pitch for another IBM study. My goodness, I used to think the McKinsey Award was a PR play. IBM has upped the ante: Harvard, MIT, and home grown research blend for a “finding.” This is academic excellence? This is intellectual honesty? Yeah, right. Remember MIT accepted funds from an interesting character, and Harvard. Right, Harvard. Fine outfit harboring consultants who do commercial work while conducting “research.”
ITEM 3: Educate
Our research shows that technology can disproportionately impact the demand and earning potential for mid-wage workers, causing a squeeze on the middle class. For every five tasks that shifted out of mid-wage jobs, we found, four tasks moved to low-wage jobs and one moved to a high-wage job. As a result, wages are rising faster in the low- and high-wage tiers than in the mid-wage tier.
Data? Nope. The finding is that graduating from an “elite” school delivers contacts, good employment and investment opportunities, and a lever to widen wage gaps. Do elite managers pay themselves and their colleagues less? But the interesting point is that there are zero data.
But who wrote this marketing fluff? An MIT tenured professor? A team of Harvard elite after making a podcast and enjoying ever so much one another’s company?
No.
The write up was written, according to the article, by Martin Fleming, IBM’s chief economist and vice president.
The survey data? The connection with the real world? Ha ha.
When Mad Magazine went out of business, I wondered what would fill the gap?
I now know. It is smart software, not the pandemic, and the demonstration that economists are as prescient as ever.
Stephen E Arnold, March 31, 2020
Strange Attractors: Technology Centers
March 31, 2020
DarkCyber spotted this story: “Indianapolis Tech Firms Hold Their Own Amid Growth Elsewhere.” The write up references a report from the Brookings Institute. Curious one of the team scanned the article and spotted an interesting paragraph:
“All of this points to the extent to which innovation-sector dynamics compound over time, leaving most places falling further behind,” the report stated.
The “this” is the fact that 90 percent of technology employment growth from 2005 to 2017 was “generated in just five major coastal cities: Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, San Diego, and San Jose.”
The DarkCyber team member was not aware that San Jose had an ocean exposure, but the main point is that “dynamics compound over time.”
Graphic of a the strange attractor. Centers emerge. Iterating calculations can cause new attractors to appear.
Is this an example of a human crafted strange attractor? Does the compounding of dynamics exert a magnetic pull on certain types of individuals? Can an excess of compounding trigger a downstream event: Homelessness, for instance?
The Dark Cyber team member observed, “Perhaps the absence of concentration provides a way to measure the “importance” or “value” of a particular effort?”
If data were available about a particular technology—for example, Loon balloons or hyper converged infrastructure—would insights into the potential of that “technology” reveal interesting insights.
What’s clear is that these centroids of technology can increase disparities in pay, talent, and innovation. What are the signs of attractor failure? Maybe disease, homelessness, a decline in certain demographics?
The implications of innovation centers compounding over time are interesting to consider.
Stephen E Arnold, March 31, 2020
A Hype-Free Look at Quantum Computing
March 31, 2020
How refreshing—The Times of Israel shares a sane view of quantum computing in its post, “Quantum Future: When Will the Super-Fast Computers Be Around?” Alas, such a useful perspective is rare amidst the marketing baloney.
Writer Pabalta Rijal begins by noting that quantum technology does hold great promise. Once the kinks are ironed out, it could solve problems of scale and complexity that are beyond the computers we are used to. Researchers have been working on quantum computing since the early 1980s, and the field has made several breakthroughs in recent years. Last October, Google declared it had reached “quantum supremacy”—the point at which a quantum system is able to solve a problem that traditional computers cannot. This does not mean the tech is anywhere near ready for the mainstream, but it gives researchers hope. What hurdles remain? Rijal writes:
“Today, quantum computers are prone to errors as they are very sensitive to defects in the underlying materials and such defects are highly challenging to control. Such interactions between Qubits (Quantum bits) and defects cause Quantum Decoherence – that is the loss of the quantum behavior of a quantum system (and, in consequence, the loss of information) and this is one of the biggest challenges in quantum computing. Advancements in materials engineering could in the future help address the problem. The error rate is directly related to material quality and new technologies used in the semiconductor manufacturing industry could potentially help improve the quantum computing industry to scale, [Applied Materials’ Nir] Yahav said. ‘To realize a quantum future, we will need collaboration between materials companies, equipment companies, and device companies, as well as academics and government institutes,’ Yahav stressed. ‘Materials engineering can play a critical role in helping push quantum technology into real commercialization,’ he added.”
So it would be premature to fall for the hype that declares quantum computing is just around the corner. The technology does, however, look more and more promising. Let us hope all parties involved can play well together.
Cynthia Murrell, March 31, 2020
Acquisdata: High Value Intelligence for Financial and Intelligence Analysts
March 31, 2020
Are venture capitalist, investment analysts, and other financial professionals like intelligence officers? The answer, according to James Harker-Mortlock, is, “Yes.”
The reasons, as DarkCyber understands them, are:
- Financial professionals to be successful have to be data omnivores; that is, masses of data, different types, and continuously flowing inputs
- The need for near real time or real time data streams can make the difference between making a profit and losses
- The impact of changing work patterns on the trading floor are forcing even boutique investment firms and global giants to rely upon smart software to provide a competitive edge. These smart systems require data for training machine learning modules.
James Harker-Mortlock, founder of Acquidata, told DarkCyber:
The need for high-value data from multiple sources in formats easily imported into analytic engines is growing rapidly. Our Acquisdata service provides what the financial analysts and their smart software require. We have numerous quant driven hedge funds downloading all our data every week to assist them in maintaining a comprehensive picture of their target companies and industries.”
According to the company’s Web site, Acquisdata:
Acquisdata is a fast growing digital financial publishing company. Established in 2010, we have quickly become a provider to the world’s leading financial news companies, including Thomson Reuters/Refinitiv, Bloomberg, Factset, IHS Markit, and Standard and Poor’s Capital IQ, part of McGraw Hill Financial, and ISI Emerging Markets. We also provide content to a range of global academic and business database providers, including EBSCO, ProQuest, OCLC, Research & Markets, CNKI and Thomson Reuters West. We know and understand the electronic publishing business well. Our management has experience in the electronic publishing industry going back 40 years. We aim to provide comprehensive and timely information for investors and others interested in the drivers of the global economy, primarily through our core products, the Industry SnapShot, Company SnapShot and Executive SnapShot products. Our units provide the annual and interim reports of public companies around the world and fundamental research on companies in emerging markets sectors, and aggregated data from third-party sources. In a world where electronic publishing is quickly changing the way we consume news and information, Acquisdata is at the very forefront of providing digital news and content solutions.
DarkCyber was able to obtain one of the firm’s proprietary Acquisdata Industry Snapshots. “United States Armaments, 16 March 2020” provides a digest of information about the US weapons industry. the contents of the 66 page report include news and commentary, selected news releases, research data, industry sector data, and company-specific information.
Obtaining these types of information from many commercial sources poses a problem for a financial professional. Some reports are in Word files; some are in Excel; some are in Adobe PDF image format; and some are in formats proprietary to a data aggregator. We provide data in XML which can be easily imported into an analytic system; for example, Palantir’s Metropolitan or similar analytical tool. PDF versions of the more than 100 weekly reports are available.
DarkCyber’s reaction to these intelligence “briefs” was positive. The approach is similar to the briefing documents prepared for the White House.
Net net: The service is of high value and warrants a close look for professionals who need current, multi-type data about a range of company and industry investment opportunities.
You can get more information about Acquisdata at www.acquidata.com.
Stephen E Arnold, March 31, 2020
DarkCyber for March 31, 2020, Now Available
March 31, 2020
DarkCyber video news program interviews Robert David Steele, a former CIA professional, about human trafficking. Among the topics touched upon in the video are:
- Why human trafficking is useful to intelligence operatives
- The mechanics of running an entrapment operation.
- Jeffrey Epstein’s activities
- The role of Ghislaine Maxwell, daughter of Israeli spy Robert Maxwell.
Mr. Steele’s comments reflect his involvement in a book about human trafficking. The video provides a link to a free download of information not widely disseminated.
You can view the program on Vimeo at this link or on YouTube at this link.
Kenny Toth, March 31, 2020
WFH WTF: A Reality Check for Newbies
March 30, 2020
On Sunday, my son who provides specialized services to the US government and I were talking about WFH or work from home. WFH is now the principal way many people earn money. My son asked me, “When did you start working from home?” He should have remembered, since he was a much younger version of his present technology consulting self.
The year was 1991 (nearly three decades, 29 years to be exact and I am now 76), and I had just avoided corporate RIFFing after an investment bank purchased the firm at which I served as a reasonably high ranking officer. I pitched a multi year consulting deal with the new owners (money people), and I decided that commuting among my home in Kentucky, the Big Apple, and Plastic Fantastic (Silicon Valley) was not for me.
I figured I had a few years of guaranteed income so I would avoid running out an leasing an office. No one who hires me cares whether they ever see me. I do special work; I don’t go to meetings; I don’t hang out at the squash club or golf course; and I don’t want people around me every day. In Plastic Fantastic, I requested an inside office. The company moved the fax machine, photocopier, and supply cabinet to my outside office with lots of windows. I took the dark, stuffy, and inhospitable inside office. Perfect it was.
The seven deadly sins of working from home: [1] Waiting for the phone to ring or email to arrive, [2] eating, [3] laziness, [4] anger, [5] envy, [6] philandering online or IRL, [7] greed. For the modern world I would add social media, online diversions, and fiddling with gizmos.
Why is this important for the WFH crowd?
The Internet is stuffed with articles like these:
- “How To Stay Productive If You’re WFH Because Of The Coronavirus,” which offers tips for WFH by a personal branding expert who convinced Forbes Magazine (the capitalist tool) that either his insights or his money would facilitate a super duper write up
- “WFH Tips I’ve Learned after Working from Home for 12 Years,” essentially insights like “drink water throughout the day and don’t forget to eat.”
- “WFH with a Roommate or Loved One? 5 Ways to Avoid Killing Each Other,” a write up from a real news outfit. An example of the insights delivered is “Be sound conscious.”
The WFH articles I scanned — reading them was alternately amusing and painful — shared a common thread. None of them told the truth about WFH.
My son suggested, “Why not write up what’s really needed to make WFH pay off?” Okay, Erik, here’s the scoop. (By the way, he has implemented most of these behaviors as his technology consulting business has surged and his entrepreneurial ventures flourished. That’s what’s called “living proof” or it used to be before Plastic Fantastic speech took over discourse.)
Discipline. Discipline. Then Discipline Again
The idea is that one has to establish goals, work routines, and priorities. The effort is entirely mental. For nearly 30 years, I follow a disciplined routine. I am at my desk (hidden in a dark, damp basement) working on tasks. Yep, seven days a week, 10 hours a day unless I am sick, on a much loathed business trip, or in a meeting somewhere, not in my home office). Sound like fun? For me, it is, and discipline is not something to talk about in marketing oriented click bait articles. Discipline is what one manifests.
Microsoft Azure: The Reoccurring Blues
March 30, 2020
On a call this weekend, a person mentioned this explanation: “Microsoft Details Impact of Coronavirus on Cloud Services Usage.” The main idea is that “A 775 percent increase in overall cloud services usage in those regions that have enforced social distancing or shelter in place orders.”
Short version: Microsoft’s cloud services do not scale seamlessly.
That “gee, Microsoft is good to me” explanation is interesting, just muffled by snuggling.
This morning (March 30, 2020), the DarkCyber news feed presented this interesting write up: “Microsoft Teams Not Working Again – Here’s What You Need to Know.” This write up reports:
Research from online outage watchdog Downdetector saw a huge spike in complaints concerning Microsoft Teams at 9am BST as much of the UK and Western European workforces came online.
Let’s assume that the snuggle report and the down again report are accurate. DarkCyber concludes:
- Not even Microsoft’s influence can snuff out grousing about its online collaboration Teams service. (Skype? Ho, ho, ho)
- Microsoft hopes to build the cloud centric services for the US Department of Defense. Sounds good, but will the outage and scaling blues color the deal. (An armed conflict? Sorry may not make the DoD comfortable.)
- The yipyap about automatic scaling, failover, and redundancy is definitely marketing baloney. (Down means fail, doesn’t it?)
Net net: Microsoft’s cloud like the Amazon and Google clouds are billing machines. The complexity almost guarantees problems. Google’s follow through on stuff that does not work; Amazon’s magical invoices with mysterious line items; and now Microsoft’s magic.
Silver or azure bullets? Ho, ho, ho.
Stephen E Arnold, March 30, 2020
Great Moments in High School Science Club Management: Twitter and Zoom
March 30, 2020
Bird is a company with venture money renting scooters. One effect of scooteritis is the desire to throw scooters in ponds, dumpsters, and bushes.
A string of Tweets at this link report an example of the HSSCMM or high school science club management method. The technique is to use the Facebook friendly Zoom video conferencing app to hold a company meeting. (Why not have everyone move their Alexa close to the conference call too?)
Instead of a meeting Bird terminated with HSSCMM 400 employees. The happy news was provided by a pre-recorded Zoom message. Another Twitter service user insisted that the message was delivered by an allegedly human person who “started crying halfway through.”
Okay, Zoom. Firing lots of people. Nifty HSSCMM nevertheless. It will be interesting to see what the next “coming down to earth” high technology company can extend this method.
Efficiency when dealing with those NOT in the science club.
Stephen E Arnold, March 30. 2020
MiningLamp Technology: Another Palantir?
March 30, 2020
DarkCyber found “China’s Palantir MiningLamp Raises US$300 Million in Funding Round Co-Led by Temasek, Tencent” intriguing. Palantir Technologies, a company providing commercial and government services, has obtained about $2 billion in funding since it was founded in 2003. Furthermore, Palantir in the past 17 years has worked to become the Analyst Notebook and BAE NetReveal for some of its clients. Note that Analyst Notebook was founded in the early 1990s and BAE’s initial intelware products date from a few years later. In short, MiningLamp wants to become:
- A company that requires decades to gain momentum
- A company that requires billions in funding or the support of a giant industrialized services firm like BAE to survive
- Expert lobbying to spark and obtain government contracts
- Remain out of the public spotlight while endeavoring to displace products that are long in the tooth.
Does this make sense? Of course, the MiningLamp operation wants to be a global software and services company. The backers of MiningLamp want to have a seat at the table when certain types of projects are planned and executed.
The write up does not point out these rather obvious facts. DarkCyber learned:
Founded in 2014, MiningLamp gained initial success by offering online ad performance evaluations and fraud detection services for advertisers, before expanding the business to industries such as public security, smart cities, finance, logistics, entertainment, retail and manufacturing.
What’s MiningLamp’s technology deliver?
Although not as well known as US equivalent Palantir Technologies, which reportedly contributed to America’s success in hunting down Osama bin Laden, MiningLamp’s data mining software is used to spot crime patterns, track drug dealers and prevent human trafficking.
Plus, the write up points out:
The company’s software enables users to search huge volumes of heterogeneous data – information with a great variety of types and formats – and process that into actionable knowledge and insight using a combination of proprietary data management tools.
The interesting point is that advertising technology leads to a Palantir metaphor. The second fact is that the funding is anchored in Singapore and the allegedly independent company Tencent. There’s no reference to any other funding, including funding from Chinese government entities or fellow travelers. Finally, Singapore has become a hub for many companies engaged in Palantir-like activities. Need a bagel? Singapore has them because there are quite a few foreign nationals who crave this food essential.
Now how much revenue can specialized software companies generate. Analyst Notebook, BAE NetReveal, Recorded Future, and similar firms do generate revenues, but none of these companies bang into glass ceilings and walls. For example, how many government agencies are there that can pay hundreds of thousands of dollars and dedicate personnel to using these intelware systems? Are there other benefits to companies in the intelware business? The market for intelware is tough to move laterally. Talk about intelware methods and customers in non-government sectors, and many of the prospects get really nervous. There are good reasons.
Is MiningLamp another Palantir? Sure, it will require large amounts of cash, lobbyist support, and funding the peculiar and costly intelware marketing puzzle.
There are interesting facets to the MiningLamp effort, but DarkCyber does not think the answer will be found in providing Bluedot-type services or morphing into an outfit like Palantir Technologies. Palantir, DarkCyber recalls, has experienced employee protests, litigation with Analyst Notebook related to reverse engineering the ANB file format, and bureaucratic scuffles with procurement professionals.
Another Palantir? Maybe, maybe not. Those writing checks for $300 million may be surprised at the intelware market’s behavior. Will the Five Eyes sign up for MiningLamp licenses? Maybe, maybe not.
Stephen E Arnold, March 30, 2020
TikTok, TikTok: What Does That Sound Mean?
March 30, 2020
DarkCyber noted “TikTok, a Chinese Soft Power Time Bomb in US Living Rooms.” The SCMP is, of course, an independent, real news outfit. The use of the B work in the headline is not accidental. Maybe it is one of those warnings or messages hidden in plain sight. A digital purloined letter is one possibility.
Zoom, partially backed by investors from China, is another video outfit. “Zoom iOS App Sends Data to Facebook Even If You Don’t Have a Facebook Account” reports that video can be an interesting service to provide.
The SCMP article reports:
Privacy advocates and several US congressmen want to rein in the app over concerns it may censor and monitor content for the Chinese government, and be used for misinformation and election interference. This despite the fact that TikTok keeps its servers outside China and swears it will not hand over user data.
Would a Chinese company ignore a government order? Yeah, well, sure in bizarro world.
Zoom, on the other hand, shares data:
What the company and its privacy policy don’t make clear is that the iOS version of the Zoom app is sending some analytics data to Facebook, even if Zoom users don’t have a Facebook account…
Now a few questions:
- What data are sent where?
- With Chinese influence in both TikTok and Zoom what information finds its way (directly or indirectly) to Chinese data pools?
- Why are video services presumed to be innocent, just for fun services when Amazon, Facebook, Google, and other firms are essentially in the data collection and analysis business?
Yesterday a person with a mostly technical work history asked me why my Zoom account is listed under the name of a couple of my dogs and a defunct cigarette brand?
Now you know. A standalone computer. A separate Internet connection. An alias. A drug store debit card. These make me feel a little bit more secure when DarkCyber has to do a video conference call.
Maybe we will create a 30 second video about Zoom, Chinese influence, and data leakage? That’s good for eight or nine views.
Stephen E Arnold, March 30, 2020
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