Technical Debt with Cats: Lots of Cats
October 29, 2020
Cats are fine. Lots of cats can trigger a different reaction. I liked “Technical Debt: Why It’ll Ruin Your Software.” I ignored the cats and focused on the information payload of the article. The author does a good job of explaining what a number of people [a] ignore, [b] do not understand, and [c] miss the connection with cost and time over-runs.,
I circled three items in the write up:
First, I circled this passage:
The moment John chose the faster and easiest solution for him was the moment that the Technical Debt was inserted in the code.
The idea is that in order to “get ‘er done,” the Corona virus of cost, complexity, and chaos was let loose. The “faster and easiest” method is everywhere. Like a person with an addiction the individual will not admit, there is no single step toward remediation. The remediators will use the same method.
Second, I noted this diagram:
The chart makes clear what people under pressure often ignore. Costs are rising, and they may not be controllable. How much change has the core of Google search undergone in the last 20 years. Who wants to dig into the guts and deal with some of the interesting problems which exist? Answer: No one who wants a promotion and a chance to start a VC firm.
Third, the future is smart software:
In a realistic and respectable world, machines should take care of these situations, and not us.
Yep, and software will be just wonderful.
Stephen E Arnold, October 29, 2020
The Bulldozer: Driver Accused of Reckless Driving
October 28, 2020
I don’t know if the story in the Sydney Morning Herald is true. You, as I did, will have to work through the “real” news report about Amazon’s commitment to its small sellers. With rumors of Jeff Bezos checking out the parking lots at CNN facilities, it is difficult to know where the big machine’s driver will steer the online bookstore next. Just navigate to “Ruined My Life: After Going All In on Amazon, a Merchant Says He Lost Everything.” The hook for the story is that a small online seller learned that Amazon asserted his product inventory was comprised of knock offs, what someone told me was a “fabulous fake.” Amazon wants to sell “real” products made by “real” companies with rights to the “real” product. A Rolex on Amazon, therefore, is “real,” unlike the fine devices available at the Paris street market Les Puces de Saint-Ouen.
What happened?
The Bezos bulldozer allegedly ground the inventory of the small merchant into recyclable materials. The write up explains in objective, actual factual “real” news rhetoric:
Stories like his [the small merchant with zero products and income] have swirled for years in online merchant forums and conferences. Amazon can suspend sellers at any time for any reason, cutting off their livelihoods and freezing their money for weeks or months. The merchants must navigate a largely automated, guilty-until-proven-innocent process in which Amazon serves as judge and jury. Their emails and calls can go unanswered, or Amazon’s replies are incomprehensible, making sellers suspect they’re at the mercy of algorithms with little human oversight.
Yikes, algorithms. What did those savvy math wonks do to alleged knock offs? What about the kidney transplant algorithms? Wait, that’s a different algorithm.
The small merchant was caught in the bulldozer’s blade. The write up explains:
Hoping to have his [the small merchant again] account reinstated and continue selling on the site, Govani [the small merchant] put off the decision. He received a total of 11 emails from Amazon each giving him different dates at which time his inventory would be destroyed if he hadn’t removed it. He sought clarity from Amazon about the conflicting dates. When he tried to submit an inventory removal order through Amazon’s web portal, it wouldn’t let him.
What’s happening now?
The small merchant is couch surfing and trying to figure out what’s next. One hopes that the Bezos bulldozer will not back over the small merchant. Taking Amazon to court is an option. There is the possibility of binding arbitration.
But it may be difficult to predict what the driver of the Bezos bulldozer will do. What’s a small merchant when the mission is larger. In the absence of meaningful regulation and a functioning compass on the big machine, maybe that renovation of CNN is more interesting than third party sellers? The Bezos bulldozer is a giant device with many moving parts. Can those driving it know what’s going on beneath the crawler treads? Is it break time yet?
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2020
Amazon: Emulating GeoSpark?
October 28, 2020
Despite pandemic-related networking challenges, analytics database firm GeoSpock is making its move. Tech in Asia reveals, “UK-Based Database GeoSpock Bags $5.4m to Expand Further into Asia.” Lead by nChain and Cambridge Innovation Capital, this investment round brings GeoSpock to over $32 million in capital raised to date. It seems these and other investors see merit in the company’s claim to offer “the most advanced analytics database,” tailor-made to provide analytics, visualization, and insights for today’s ultra-connected world. Reporter Doris Yu writes:
“The company plans to use the new funds to improve its product and technical capabilities, as well as accelerate the development and adoption of its database in the market, according to a statement. What problem is it solving? ‘With the emergence of connected vehicles, smart cities, and the deployment of internet of things (IoT) sensors, the amount of data produced globally has exploded,’ the company told Tech in Asia, adding that traditional databases are ‘too slow and cumbersome.’ GeoSpock said it aims to produce a ‘cost-efficient, scalable, and fast database.’ … GeoSpock CEO Richard Baker said the company aims to disrupt the US$386 billion IoT big data analytics market. It works with customers on a subscription basis and charges for compute nodes that are available for use. With the increasing adoption of digitization throughout Asia, the company said its expansion plans will initially focus on Singapore and Japan as it develops teams and partnerships across the region.”
GeoSpock already has footholds in Asia, where it is working with both public and private organizations on smart city, automotive, maritime, and telecommunications projects. Launched in 2013, the company is based in Cambridge. GeoSpock now employs about 40 folks worldwide, but expects to hire more technical and customer-service staff in Singapore and Japan within the next year.
What’s interesting is that there is a company called GeoSpark Analytics. Coincidence?
Cynthia Murrell, October 19, 2020
Artificial Intelligence: What Is Good for the Geese May Not Be Good for Other Creatures, Especially Ganders
October 28, 2020
I read “The Artificial Intelligence Mafia.” The author is Professor Louis C H Fourie, a futurist affiliated with the University of the Western Cape in South Africa. The article provides a run down of the key players in artificial intelligence, citing the Amy Webb’s book The Big Nine. The article includes an interesting passage; to wit:
AI is not necessarily detrimental and has brought tremendous benefits to everyday life. But the G-MAFIA companies are profit-driven and need to satisfy their shareholders, while in China the BAT [Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent] companies must please the Chinese government. The problem is, however, that what is best for shareholders and the Chinese government, may not be in the best interest of humanity. Adversarial attacks, algorithmic discrimination and surveillance control will continue to harm unsuspecting users across the world. The social, economic and political divide continues to grow, while people have lost ownership of their personal data, their privacy, and their identities. Unless, of course, countries enforce certain AI frameworks, standards, and best practices to ensure that AI is used for the human good. AI practices should be transparent with standardized protocols, and citizens should have control over their data. If we do not fix the problems at the root, the consequences in the future can be disastrous.
The observation depends upon human actions, not just algorithms. Those actions are often more difficult to control than the workings of a numerical recipe.
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2020
Apple: Customer Service or Customer Opportunity?
October 28, 2020
Alas, Apple, what is going on? First there was a series of distressing buggy updates and now customer service craziness. James Rogers at iPad Insight insists “Apple Needs to Fix Their Service and Support Problems.” Rogers begins by noting most of his encounters with Apple support over the years have been positive—a caveat he repeats several times. Those interactions, however, do not balance out the ordeal that began with a News Publisher interface crash at the beginning of October. For weeks, the author struggled to get help and was left feeling that no one on Apple’s side gave a flying fig that his site’s Apple News page was losing money every day the issue dragged on. They even missed the chance to cover the much-hyped iPhone release event during that time.
The whole experience was insulting, we’re told. See the post for details of Rogers’ struggle. He concludes:
“My experience over the last two weeks did wake me up to the fact that Apple has some legitimate issues that need to be addressed when it comes to customer service and support. And yes, that includes developer service and support, as well. The problems are real. The experience can be extremely inconsistent depending on what you are looking for help with. I’ve texted and talked with people in Apple Support who will bend over backwards to do whatever they can to help you. Even when they couldn’t, I never felt like I was being ignored or that they didn’t care. And then I got the worst support in my life over the last two weeks. It doesn’t add up and Apple needs to figure out where the weak spots are and fix them. I’m sure that Apple’s size and scale work against them when it comes to keeping an eye on customer support across such an expanse of products and services. But that’s the deal when you are one of the biggest and richest companies in the world.”
The more the company grows, Rogers notes, the more customer service seems to be slipping. If Apple fails to address the issues, previously loyal customers will abandon the company that was once built on exceptional support. An opportunity for a competitor or a reflection of the need to optimize revenue?
Cynthia Murrell, October 28, 2020
IBM Watson: Going Back to the Jeopardy Thing
October 28, 2020
IEEE Spectrum ran an interview which I thought was a trifle unusual. Watson is going to modernize legacy code. How much of the legacy code is the work of IBM programmers and acolytes trained in the ways of Big Blue: JCL incantations, chants for PL/I, and abracadabra for Assembler? What about the code for the US air traffic control system? What about the code for the AS/400, a machine series I have lost in the mists of marketing? I remember rocking on with RPG.
The article has a killer SEO-centric title; to wit:
What, pray tell, was the first challenge IBM Watson successfully resolved? Maybe winning the Jeopardy game show. I keep thinking about the wonders of television post-production for programs which shoot a week’s worth of goodness in one day. The behind the scenes Avid users labor away to produce a “real” TV show. Sorry. I remain skeptical.
The article presents five questions. These are not exactly colloquial. The wording is similar to that used in semi-scripted reality TV programs. The answers are IBM-ish. Please, read and enjoy the original document. I will focus on two of the questions. Yes, I selected the ones with the most Watson goodness based on my experience with the giant of White Plains.
The first question probes the darned exciting history of IBM Watson and cancer. As I recall, some of the oncologists in Houston’s medical community were not thrilled with the time required to explain cancer to IBM analysts and slightly less thrilled with the outputs. Hasta la vista, Watson. The article explains IBM Watson and healthcare using wordage like this:
The use of AI in healthcare is still evolving, and it’s a journey. To expect AI to be able to give the right answer in all diagnosis scenarios is expecting too much. The technology has not reached that level yet. However, that’s precisely why we say it’s more about augmenting the healthcare experts than it is about replacing in many ways.
My, “yeah, but” is a memory of an IBM Watson presentation which asserted that Watson could deliver actionable diagnoses. I know I am getting old, but I recall those assurances. That presentation gave me the idea for the “Weakly Watson” series of articles in this blog. There were some crazy attempts to make IBM Watson relevant: Free to use model, build an application to match dogs with dog owners for a festival in Mexico, etc. etc.
The second question I want to highlight is natural language processing (!) and content processing. Here’s the snippet from the IBMer’s answer I circled with my Big Blue pen:
Roughly speaking, rule-based systems will be successful in translating somewhere between 50 to 60 percent of a program. It is true that part of the program can be translated reasonably well, however, that still leaves half of the program to be translated manually, and that remaining 50 percent is the hardest part, typically involving very complex rules. And that’s exactly where AI kicks in because it can act like humans.
There you go. AI “can act like humans.” Tell that to the people shafted by AI systems as documented in Weapons of Math Destruction.
Net net: Where’s IBM going with Watson? I think anywhere money can be generated. Game shows are probably less complex than addressing encrypted text messages and figuring out what’s in a streaming video in real time.
Who knows? Maybe Lucene, acquired technology from outfits like Vivisimo, and home brew code from IBM Almaden can work miracles.
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2020
Facebook: Be a Good Neighbor
October 27, 2020
Engadget published “Facebook Is Testing a Nextdoor-Like Neighborhoods Feature in Canada.” The write up reports:
Facebook is testing a feature called Neighborhoods that would allow users to join community-based groups, much as you can with Nextdoor.
The article says:
Facebook’s Neighborhoods feature could allow the social network to display hyper-local ads and gather more data on users, judging by the screenshots seen so far.
At the end of the write up, the author reminds me that Facebook is under investigation.
What’s interesting is that the Facebook “innovation,” if the article is accurate, is a good example of me-too; that is, a smaller company figures out a service, attracts users, and, on the surface at least, is successful.
Could the business tactics playbook for an outfit like Facebook contain this tactic: Copy and crush?
Worth watching as the country of Facebook confronts those next door. Now the music for “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” are echoing:
It’s a beautiful day in this neighborhood,
A beautiful day for a neighbor.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?…
Stephen E Arnold, October 27, 2020
Google: Chugging Forward with Oblivious Cyber Archaeologists
October 27, 2020
I read “Google’s 20-year Path from David to Goliath.” The article makes four points about the company’s 20 year journey from free Web search to “free” Web search. I agree with the points in general, but a bit of color for each puts the observations in context.
The first point made in the Axios write up is: “Google figured out how to make money.” I think it is useful to note that the way to make money was to emulate the Overture/GoTo “pay to play” approach to appearing in search results. Yahoo owned Overture. There was a legal spat between the two outstanding Silicon Valley outfits. After a negotiated deal, Google implemented a variant of the Overture system, and Yahoo banked about $1 billion. Key point: The making money was based on another outfit’s innovation. Cyber historians take note: The foundations of the Google are “interesting” and indicative of Googley behavior.
The second point is “Google bought other companies.” Indeed, Google did acquire companies and technologies and people. My research for my three Google monographs revealed that somehow Google has managed to keep details of some of the acquisitions out of the public eye. One example will illustrate what Google achieved. The firm acquired Transformics, a firm which developed technology to facilitate “knitting together” disparate items of data. Locating information about this deal and the Transformics’ data system is challenging. Some of Google’s capabilities are, therefore, essentially unknown.
The third point is “Google moved into all sorts of businesses beyond search.” As my blog Beyond Search documents, finding information is the fundamental function for any work or knowledge process in our digital world, what I call the “datasphere.” Google, therefore, did not move anywhere. People needing information flow to the service or services which enable them to “do work” or “perform a function.” The consequence is that Google is more pervasive than most pundits, experts, and analysts realize.
The fourth point is “Google built a free mobile operating system.” I would suggest that we are back at point number one. Google appropriated and diffused the operating system using the functions of two or three. Google’s technology can shape information and tap into the natural flow of users to information resources.
My key point: Google is a dynamic system built on feedback loops and creative inspiration from the work of others.
So what?
I learned after publishing my three Google monographs (2003 to 2008) that most Googlers don’t grasp the generative power of Google. If Googlers don’t get it, will those who proudly state, “I am an expert in doing research” understand the Google legacy. Well, the legacy is here and cyber historians have not seen the high-res picture yet.
Stephen E Arnold, October 27, 2020
Content Management: A New Spin
October 27, 2020
What do you get when a young wizard reinvents information management? First, there was records management. Do you know what that was supposed to do? Yep, manage records and know when to destroy them according to applicable guidelines. Next, there was content management. In the era of the Internet, newly minted experts declared that content destined for a Web site had to be management. There were some exciting solutions which made some consultants lots of money; for example, Broadvision/Aurea. Excellent solution. Then there was document management exemplified by companies like Exstream Software which still lives at OpenText as a happy 22 year old solution.) These “disciplines” generated much jargon and handwaving, but most of the chatter sank into data lakes and drowned. Once in a while, like Nessie, an XML/JSON monster emerges and roars, “Success. All your content belong to us.” On the shore of the data lake, eDiscovery vendors shiver in fear. Information management is a scary place.
I read because someone sent me a link, knowing my interest in crazy mid tier consulting speak, to this article: “The Problem with Books of Record and How an EMS Could Help Solve That Problem.” Now here’s the subtitle: “Execution management systems are a new category of software that unlocks value in the hairball of enterprise IT landscapes. Here’s how.”
The acronym EMS means “execution management systems.” Okay. EMS is similar to CMS (content management systems) but with a difference. Execution has a actionable edge. Execution. Get something done. Terminate with extreme prejudice.
Another clarification appears in the write up:
To be a book of record, the data would be in one place, always current and complete. Today’s business systems often have data stored, redundantly, in many places, with many elements incomplete and possibly out of date.
Okay, a book of record and the reference to the existing content chaos which exists in most of these “management” systems.
I am now into new territory. The filing cabinet has yielded to the data lake which suggests dumping everything in one big pool and relying of keywords, Fancy Dan solution like natural language processing, and artificial intelligence to deliver what the person looking for information needs. (The craziness of this approach can be relived by reading about the Google Search Appliance or using an enterprise search system to locate a tweet by a crazed marketer who decided to criticize a competitor after a two hour Zoom meeting followed by a couple of cans of Mountain Dew.)
The write up explains:
Solutions like Celonis’ EMS (execution management) exist because few vendors have focused on all these information handshakes. To create a really efficient business environment, the devil is in the nooks, crannies, handoffs, manual steps, integrations, systems changes, queues, and more. Execution management is about documenting, understanding, integrating, streamlining, optimizing and reengineering how work gets done. Put simply, Celonis’ tools, in short, document processes, mine what’s happening from the underlying systems to see what kinds of tortured paths are being followed to get work done and then, via benchmarks, best practices and smart automation capabilities, straighten out the flow.
Is this a sales pitch for a company called Celonis?
The firm, according to its Web site, is the number one in the execution management system space. I believe everything I read on the Internet.
Several observations:
- Automation is a hot topic. Hooking information to workflow makes sense.
- The word choice or attempt at creating awareness with the EMS moniker could be confusing to some. For me, EMS means emergency management solutions.
- Founded in 2011, Celonis has ingested (according to Crunchbase) more than $300 million in funding. Investors are optimistic and know that the trajectories of FileNet and FatWire are in their future.
The information management revolution continues. At some point, the problem with information in an organization will be solved. On the other hand, it may be one of those approaching infinity thing-a-ma-bobs. You can’t get there from here.
Some corporate executives experience stress when dealing with content and information challenges: Legal discovery, emails with long forgotten data, and references to documents which no longer “exist.”
Net net: Stress can lead to heart attacks. That’s when the real EMS is needed.
Stephen E Arnold, October 27, 2020
Palantir Round Up: The Beyond Search Commentary
October 27, 2020
I received a request for the links to my Palantir Technologies coverage. Here’s a hot linked list to the 17 essays, news items, and analyses which appeared in Beyond Search / Dark Cyber from March to October 2020. Stories prior to this year’s may be located using the search function on the Beyond Search / Dark Cyber blog.
- “Two Palantir Profiles: Some Peculiar Omissions.” This essay identifies several Palantir activities not included in the September 2020 New York Magazine profile of the company and the October 2020 New York Times Magazine article. Why were this events ignored or overlooked by the respective publishing companies?
- “Palantir Technologies: Minor Questions Remain.” A list of nine questions which have not been answered comprehensively. This article appeared in early October 2020.
- “Palantir Technologies: A Problem for Intelware Competitors?” This essay compares Palantir Technologies to Autonomy. Both companies have something in common: Revenue. But Autonomy had generated more revenue than Palantir, and Autonomy chose to sell itself to Hewlett Packard. This essay appeared in September 2020 and included the names of the five prime movers at the company.
- “Palantir: Will Investors Embrace Intelware Outfit Generating Consistent, Substantial Losses for More Than a Decade?” This article appeared in September 2020 and focuses on Palantir’s consistent record of losing money in a boom market for policeware.
- “Palantir Has Only Unicorn Scorn for Fellow Travelers.” The essay identifies Palantir’s signal that it is different from other unicorns. The story appeared on September 7, 2020.
- “Palantir: Planning Ahead.” This is a September 4, 2020, essay about the company’s desire to have a special type of control after the initial public offering.
- “Palantir: Stakeholders May Know Whom to Blame If Money Does Not Flow.” This August 2020 essay considers founder control in perpetuity.
- “Palantir Technologies: Maybe Stealth Is Better for Specialized Services Companies?” This essay explores the upside and downside of a policeware company which goes public, thus exposing more of its information to outsiders. This article appeared on August 24, 2020.
- “Palantir Technologies and Semi Hard Numbers.” A short item about Palantir’s revenues. The story appeared on July 10, 2020.
- “A Peek into Google and Palantir Contracts: The UK National Health Service Versions.” This article provided links to Palantir’s agreements with the UK NHS and was published in June 2020.
- “Palantir Technologies: A Very Unusual Emission from a Specialized Services Firm.” This May 26, 2020, essay points to challenges NSO Group faces and raises the question, “Will Palantir face similar scrutiny when it goes public?”
- “Schmidt Versus Thiel May Be a Proxy for Google Trying Catch Up with Palantir.” This May 2020 article touches on the relationship between Palantir and the current administration in Washington, DC.
- “Palantir to Help HHS Track Coronavirus.” This April 2020 news item points to Palantir’s contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services.
- “Palantir Technologies: Getting the NSO Treatment.” This April 24, 2020, essay points out that Palantir is getting more attention from publications like the Wall Street Journal.
- “Palantir Technologies: Evidence That Making Big Money Comes from a Financial Play, Not a Product.” This April 12, 2020, article raises the question, “Is Palantir a financial play, not a viable company?”
- “MiningLamp Technology: Another Palantir?” This March 30, 2020, article draws attention to a Chinese company which appears to have duplicated some of Palantir’s functionality.
- “DCGS: Palantir and BAE Seem to Be Winners.” This March 9, 2020, article considers the demise of DCGS as a viable wartime information and the pivot to BAE Systems and Palantir as alternatives.
There are other, earlier stories. These provide a snapshot of the Beyond Search and Dark Cyber coverage of the company. Remember. Each of these articles is anchored to an open source news story.
Stephen E Arnold, October 27, 2020
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