Soros: Just in Time 20-20 Hindsight

November 18, 2020

Here’s an interesting quote (if it is indeed accurate):

SFM [a George Soros financial structure] made this investment [in Palantir Technologies] at a time when the negative social consequences of big data were less understood,” the firm said in a statement Tuesday. SFM would not make an investment in Palantir today.

The investment concerns Palantir Technologies. George Soros, who is 90 years young, according to “Soros Regrets Early Investment in Peter Thiel’s Palantir,” includes this statement:

Soros has sold all the shares it’s permitted to sell at this time and will keep selling, according to the statement. “SFM does not approve of Palantir’s business practices,” the firm said.

Hindsight is 20-20. Or is it?

Hindsight bias can cause memory distortion. Because the event happened like you thought it would, you go back and revise your memory of what you were thinking right before the event. You re-write history, so to speak, and revise the probability in hindsight. Going forward, you use that new, higher probability to make future decisions. When in fact, the probabilities haven’t changed at all. That leads to poor judgment.—“Innovators: Beware the Hindsight Bias

Stephen E Arnold, November 18, 2020

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