Thinking about AI: Is It That Hard?
May 17, 2023
I read “Why I’m Having Trouble Covering AI: If You Believe That the Most Serious Risks from AI Are Real, Should You Write about Anything Else?” The version I saw was a screenshot, presumably to cause me to go to Platformer in order to interact with it. I use smart software to convert screenshots into text, so the risk reduced by the screenshot was in the mind of the creator.
Here’s a statement I underlined:
The reason I’m having trouble covering AI lately is because there is such a high variance in the way that the people who have considered the question most deeply think about risk.
My recollection is that Daniel Kahneman allegedly cooked up the idea of “prospect theory.” As I understand the idea, humans are not very good when thinking about risk. In fact, some people take risks because they think that a problem can be averted. Other avoid risk to because omission is okay; for example, reporting a financial problem. Why not just leave it out and cook up a footnote? Omissions are often okay with some government authorities.
I view the AI landscape from a different angle.
First, smart software has been chugging along for many years. May I suggest you fire up a copy of Microsoft Word, use it with its default settings, and watch how words are identified, phrases underlined, and letters automatically capitalized? How about using Amazon to buy lotion. Click on the buy now button and navigate to the order page. It’s magic. Amazon has used software to perform tasks which once required a room with clerks. There are other examples. My point is that the current baloney roll is swelling from its own gaseous emissions.
Second, the magic of ChatGPT outputting summaries was available 30 years ago from Island Software. Stick in the text of an article, and the desktop system spit out an abstract. Was it good? If one were a high school student, it was. If you were building a commercial database product fraught with jargon, technical terms, and abstruse content, it was not so good. Flash forward to now. Bing, You.com, and presumably the new and improved Bard are better. Is this surprising? Nope. Thirty years of effort have gone into this task of making a summary. Am I to believe that the world will end because smart software is causing a singularity? I am not reluctant to think quantum supremacy type thoughts. I just don’t get too overwrought.
Third, using smart software and methods which have been around for centuries — yep, centuries — is a result of easy-to-use tools being available at low cost or free. I find You.com helpful; I don’t pay for it. I tried Kagi and Teva; not so useful and I won’t pay for it. Swisscows.com work reasonably well for me. Cash conserving and time saving are important. Smart software can deliver this easily and economically. When the math does not work, then I am okay with manual methods. Will the smart software take over the world and destroy me as an Econ Talk guest suggested? Sure. Maybe? Soon. What’s soon mean?
Fourth, the interest in AI, in my opinion, is a result of several factors: [a] Interesting demonstrations and applications at a time when innovation becomes buying or trying to buy a game company, [b] avoiding legal interactions due to behavioral or monopoly allegations, [c] a deteriorating economy due to the Covid and free money events, [d] frustration among users with software and systems focused on annoying, not delighting, their users; [e] the inability of certain large companies to make management decisions which do not illustrate that high school science club thinking is not appropriate for today’s business world; [f] data are available; [g] computing power is comparatively cheap; [h] software libraries, code snippets, off-the-shelf models, and related lubricants are findable and either free to use or cheap; [i] obvious inefficiencies exist so a new tool is worth a try; and [j] the lure of a bright shiny thing which could make a few people lots of money adds a bit of zest to the stew.
Therefore, I am not confused, nor am I overly concerned with those who predict home runs or end-of-world outcomes.
What about big AI brains getting fired or quitting?
Three observations:
First, outfits like Facebook and Google type companies are pretty weird and crazy places. Individuals who want to take a measured approach or who are not interested in having 20-somethings play with their mobile when contributing to a discussion should get out or get thrown out. Scared or addled or arrogant big company managers want the folks to speak the same language, to be on the same page even it the messages are written in invisible ink, encrypted, and circulated to the high school science club officers.
Second, like most technologies chock full of jargon, excitement, and the odor of crisp greenbacks, expectations are high. Reality is often able to deliver friction the cheerleaders, believers, and venture capitalists don’t want to acknowledge. That friction exists and will make its presence felt. How quickly? Maybe Bud Light quickly? Maybe Google ad practice awareness speed? Who knows? Friction just is and like gravity difficult to ignore.
Third, the confusion about AI depends upon the lenses through which one observes what’s going on. What are these lenses? My team has identified five smart software lenses. Depending on what lens is in your pair of glasses and how strong the curvatures are, you will be affected by the societal lens, the technical lens, the individual lens (that’s the certain blindness each of us has), the political lens, and the financial lens. With lots to look at, the choice of lens is important. The inability to discern what is important depends on the context existing when the AI glasses are perched on one’s nose. It is okay to be confused; unknowing adds the splash of Slap Ya Mama to my digital burrito.
Net net: Meta-reflections are a glimpse into the inner mind of a pundit, podcast star, and high-energy writer. The reality of AI is a replay of a video I saw when the Internet made online visible to many people, not just a few individuals. What’s happened to that revolution? Ads and criminal behavior. What about the mobile revolution? How has that worked out? From my point of view it creates an audience for technology which could, might, may, will, or whatever other forward forward word one wants to use. AI is going to glue together the lowest common denominator of greed with the deconstructive power of digital information. No Terminator is needed. I am used to being confused, and I am perfectly okay with the surrealistic world in which I live.
PS. We lectured two weeks ago to a distinguished group and mentioned smart software four times in two and one half hours. Why? It’s software. It has utility. It is nothing new. My prospect theory pegs artificial intelligence in the same category as online (think NASA Recon), browsing (think remote content to a local device), and portable phones (talking and doing other stuff without wires). Also, my Zepp watch stress reading is in the low 30s. No enlarged or cancerous prospect theory for me at this time.
Stephen E Arnold, May 17, 2023
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