Peak AI? Do You Know What Happened to Catharists? Quiz ChatGPT or Whatever
March 21, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I read “Have We Reached Peak AI?” The question is an interesting one because some alleged monopolies are forming alliances with other alleged monopolies. Plus wonderful managers from an alleged monopoly is joining another alleged monopoly to lead a new “unit” of the alleged monopoly. At the same time, outfits like the usually low profile Thomson Reuters suggested that it had an $8 billion war chest for smart software. My team and I cannot keep up with the announcements about AI in fields ranging from pharma to ransomware from mysterious operators under the control of wizards in China and Russia.
Thanks, MSFT Copilot. You did a good job on the dinobabies.
Let’s look at a couple of statements in the essay which addresses the “peak AI” question.
I noticed that OpenAI is identified as an exemplar of a company that sticks to a script, avoids difficult questions, and gets a velvet glove from otherwise pointy fingernailed journalists. The point is well taken; however, attention does not require substance. The essay states:
OpenAI’s messaging and explanations of what its technology can (or will) do have barely changed in the last few years, returning repeatedly to “eventually” and “in the future” and speaking in the vaguest ways about how businesses make money off of — let alone profit from — integrating generative AI.
What if the goal of the interviews and the repeated assertions about OpenAI specifically and smart software in general is publicity and attention. Cut off the buzz for any technology and it loses its shine. Buzz is the oomph in the AI hot house. Who cares about Microsoft buying into games? Now who cares about Microsoft hooking up with OpenAI, Mistral, and Inception? That’s what the meme life delivers. Games, sigh. AI, let’s go and go big.
Another passage in the essay snagged me:
I believe a large part of the artificial intelligence boom is hot air, pumped through a combination of executive bullshitting and a compliant media that will gladly write stories imagining what AI can do rather than focus on what it’s actually doing.
One of my team members accused me of FOMO when I told Howard to get us a Flipper. (Can one steal a car with a Flipper? The answer is, “Not without quite a bit of work.) The FOMO was spot on. I had a “fear of missing out.” Canada wants to ban the gizmos. Hence, my request, “Get me a Flipper.” Most of the “technology” in the last decade is zipping along on marketing, PR, and YouTube videos. (I just watched a private YouTube video about intelware which incorporates lots of AI. Is the product available? Nope. But… soon. Let the marketing and procurement wheels begin turning.)
Journalists (often real ones) fall prey to FOMO. Just as I wanted a Flipper, the “real” journalists want to write about what’s apparently super duper important. The Internet is flagging. Quantum computing is old hat and won’t run in a mobile phone. The new version of Steve Gibson’s Spinrite is not catching the attention of blue chip investment firms. Even the enterprise search revivifier Glean is not magnetic like AI.
The issue for me is more basic than the “Peak AI” thesis; to wit, What is AI? No one wants to define it because it is a bit like “security.” The truth is that AI is a way to make money in what is a fairly problematic economic setting. A handful of companies are drowning in cash. Others are not sure they can keep the lights on.
The final passage I want to highlight is:
Eventually, one of these companies will lose a copyright lawsuit, causing a brutal reckoning on model use across any industry that’s integrated AI. These models can’t really “forget,” possibly necessitating a costly industry-wide retraining and licensing deals that will centralize power in the larger AI companies that can afford them.
I would suggest that Google has already been ensnared by the French regulators. AI faces an on-going flow of legal hassles. These range from cash-starved publishers to the work-from-home illustrator who does drawings for a Six-Flags-Over-Jesus type of super church. Does anyone really want to get on the wrong side of a super church in (heaven forbid) Texas?
I think the essay raises a valid point: AI is a poster child of hype.
However, as a dinobaby, I know that technology is an important part of the post-industrial set up in the US of A. Too much money will be left on the table unless those savvy to revenue flows and stock upsides ignore the mish-mash of AI. In an unregulated setting, people need and want the next big thing. Okay, it is here. Say “hello” to AI.
Stephen E Arnold, March 21, 2024
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