AI Will Not Definitely, Certainly, Absolute Not Take Some Jobs. Whew. That Is News
June 3, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
Outfits like McKinsey & Co. are kicking the tires of smart software. Some bright young sprouts I have heard arrive with a penchant for AI systems to create summaries and output basic information on a subject the youthful masters of the universe do not know. Will consulting services firms, publishers, and customer service outfits embrace smart software? The answer is, “You bet your bippy.”
“Why?” Answer: Potential cost savings. Humanoids require vacations, health care, bonuses, pension contributions (ho ho ho), and an old-fashioned and inefficient five-day work week.
Cost reductions over time, cost controls in real time, and more consistent outputs mean that as long as smart software is good enough, the technologies will go through organizations with more efficiency than Union General William T. Sherman led some 60,000 soldiers on a 285-mile march from Atlanta to Savannah, Georgia. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Working on security today?
Software is allegedly better, faster, and cheaper. Software, particularly AI, may not be better, faster, or cheaper. But once someone is fired, the enthusiasm to return to the fold may be diminished. Often the response is a semi-amusing and often negative video posted on social media.
“Here’s Why AI Probably Isn’t Coming for Your Job Anytime Soon” disagrees with my fairly conservative prediction that consulting, publishing, and some service outfits will be undergoing what I call “humanoid erosion” and “AI accretion.” The write up asserts:
We live in an age of hyper specialization. This is a trend that’s been evolving for centuries. In his seminal work, The Wealth of Nations (written within months of the signing of the Declaration of Independence), Adam Smith observed that economic growth was primarily driven by specialization and division of labor. And specialization has been a hallmark of computing technology since its inception. Until now. Artificial intelligence (AI) has begun to alter, even reverse, this evolution.
Okay, Econ 101. Wonderful. But… and there are some, of course. the write up says:
But the direction is clear. While society is moving toward ever more specialization, AI is moving in the opposite direction and attempting to replicate our greatest evolutionary advantage—adaptability.
Yikes. I am not sure that AI is going in any direction. Senior managers are going toward reducing costs. “Good enough,” not excellence, is the high-water mark today.
Here’s another “but”:
But could AI take over the bulk of legal work or is there an underlying thread of creativity and judgment of the type only speculative super AI could hope to tackle? Put another way, where do we draw the line between general and specific tasks we perform? How good is AI at analyzing the merits of a case or determining the usefulness of a specific document and how it fits into a plausible legal argument? For now, I would argue, we are not even close.
I don’t remember much about economics. In fact, I only think about economics in terms of reducing costs and having more money for myself. Good old Adam wrote:
Wherever there is great property there is great inequality. For one very rich man, there must be at least five hundred poor, and the affluence of the few supposes the indigence of the many.
When it comes to AI, inequality is baked in. The companies that are competing fiercely to dominate the core technology are not into equality. The senior managers who want to reduce costs associated with publishing, writing consulting reports based on business school baloney, or reviewing documents hunting for nuggets useful in a trial. AI is going into these and similar knowledge professions. Most of those knowledge workers will have an opportunity to find their future elsewhere. But what about in-take professionals in hospitals? What about dispatchers at trucking companies? What about government citizen service jobs? Sorry. Software is coming. Companies are developing orchestrator software to allow smart software to function across multiple related and inter-related tasks. Isn’t that what most work in a many organizations is?
Here’s another test question from Econ 101:
Discuss the meaning of “It was not by gold or by silver, but by labor, that all wealth of the world was originally purchased.” Give examples of how smart software will replace labor and generate more money for those who own the rights to digital gold or silver.
Send me you blue book answers within 24 hours. You must write in legible cursive. You are not permitted to use artificial intelligence in any form to answer this question which counts for 95 percent of your grade in Economics 102: Work in the Age of AI.
Stephen E Arnold, June 3, 2024
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