The Seattle Syndrome: Definitely Debilitating
August 30, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I think the film “Sleepless in Seattle” included dialog like this:
What do they call it when everything intersects?
The Bermuda Triangle.”
Seattle has Boeing. The company is in the news not just for doors falling off its aircraft. The outfit has stranded two people in earth orbit and has to let Elon Musk bring them back to earth. And Seattle has Amazon, an outfit that stands behind the products it sells. And I have to include Intel Labs, not too far from the University of Washington, which is famous in its own right for many things.
Two job seekers discuss future opportunities in some of Seattle and environ’s most well-known enterprises. The image of the city seems a bit dark. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Are you having some dark thoughts about the area, its management talent pool, and its commitment to ethical business activity? That’s a lot of burning cars, but whatever.
Is Seattle a Bermuda Triangle for large companies?
This question invites another; specifically, “Is Microsoft entering Seattle’s Bermuda Triangle?
The giant outfit has entered a deal with the interesting specialized software and consulting company Palantir Technologies Inc. This firm has a history of ups and downs since its founding 21 years ago. Microsoft has committed to smart software from OpenAI and other outfits. Artificial intelligence will be “in” everything from the Azure Cloud to Windows. Despite concerns about privacy, Microsoft wants each Windows user’s machine to keep screenshot of what the user “does” on that computer.
Microsoft seems to be navigating the Seattle Bermuda Triangle quite nicely. No hints of a flash disaster like the sinking of the sailing yacht Bayesian. Who could have predicted that? (That’s a reminder that fancy math does not deliver 1.000000 outputs on a consistent basis.
Back to Seattle. I don’t think failure or extreme stress is due to the water. The weather, maybe? I don’t think it is the city government. It is probably not the multi-faceted start up community nor the distinctive vocal tones of its most high profile podcasters.
Why is Seattle emerging as a Bermuda Triangle for certain firms? What forces are intersecting? My observations are:
- Seattle’s business climate is a precursor of broader management issues. I think it is like the pigeons that Greeks examined for clues about their future.
- The individuals who works at Boeing-type outfits go along with business processes modified incrementally to ignore issues. The mental orientation of those employed is either malleable or indifferent to downstream issues. For example, Windows update killed printing or some other function. The response strikes me as “meh.”
- The management philosophy disconnects from users and focuses on delivering financial results. Those big houses come at a cost. The payoff is personal. The cultural impacts are not on the radar. Hey, those quantum Horse Ridge things make good PR. What about the new desktop processors? Just great.
Net net: I think Seattle is a city playing an important role in defining how businesses operate in 2024 and beyond. I wish I was kidding. But I am bedeviled by reminders of a space craft which issues one-way tickets, software glitches, and products which seem to vary from the online images and reviews. (Maybe it is the water? Bermuda Triangle water?)
Stephen E Arnold, August 30, 2024
Pavel Durov: Durable Appeal Despite Crypto, French Allegations, and a Travel Restriction
August 30, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
Telegram, a Web3 crypto facilitator, is in the news because its Big Dog is a French dog house. He can roam free, but he cannot leave the country. I mention Pavel Durov, the brother of Nikolai who has two PhDs in his brain, because he has appeal. Allegedly he also has more than 100 children. I find Mr. Durov’s fecundity an anomaly if the information in “Men in Crypto Less Attractive to Women Than Cosplayers, Anime Buffs: Survey.” That story suggests that men in crypto will not be at the front of the line when it comes to fathering five score bambinos.
Thanks, Microsoft Copilot. Nice cosplay. Who is the fellow in the bunny suit?
The write up reports:
Crypto was seen as the ninth-most unattractive hobby for males, the Aug. 24 survey by the Date Psychology blog found, which was a convenience sample of 814 people, 48% of which were female. The authors noted that based on past surveys, their sample population disproportionately includes women of “high social status,” with a high level of education and who are predominately white.
I will not point out that the sample size seems a few cans short of a six pack nor that lack of an unbiased sample is usually a good idea. But the idea is interesting.
The article continues with what I think are unduly harsh words:
Female respondents were asked if they found a list of 74 hobbies either “attractive” or “unattractive.” Only 23.1% said crypto was an attractive hobby, while around a third found comic books and cosplaying attractive. It left crypto as the second-most unattractive so-called “nerd” hobby to women — behind collecting products from Funko, which makes pop culture and media-based bobblehead figures.
The article includes some interesting data:
The results show that females thought reading was the most attractive hobby for a man (98.2%), followed by knowing or learning a foreign language (95.6%) and playing an instrument (95.4%).
I heard that Pavel Durov, not the brother with the two PhD brain, has a knack for languages. He allegedly speaks Russian (seems logical. His parents are Russian.), French (seems logical. He has French citizenship.), “Persian” (seems logical he has UAE citizenship and lives in quite spartan quarters in Dubai.), and Saint Kitts and Nevis (seems logical that he would speak English and some Creole). Now that he is in France with only a travel restriction he can attend some anime and cosplay events. It is possible that Parisian crypto enthusiasts will have a “Crypto Night” at a bistro like Le Procope. In order to have more appeal, he may wear a git-up.
I would suggest that his billionaire status and “babes near me” function in Telegram might enhance his appeal. If he has more than 100 Durov bambinos, why not shoot for 200 or more? He is living proof that surveys are not 100 percent reliable.
Stephen E Arnold, August 30, 2024
What Is a Good Example of AI Enhancing Work Processes? Klarna
August 30, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
Klarna is a financial firm in Sweden. (Did you know Sweden has a violence problem?) The country also has a company which is quite public about the value of smart software to its operations. “‘Our Chatbots Perform The Tasks Of 700 People’: Buy Now, Pay Later Company Klarna To Axe 2,000 Jobs As AI Takes On More Roles” reports:
Klarna has already cut over 1,000 employees and plans to remove nearly 2,000 more
Yep, that’s the use case. Smart software allows the firm’s leadership to terminate people. (Does that managerial attitude contribute to the crime problem in Sweden? Of course not. The company is just being efficient.)
The write up states:
Klarna claims that its AI-powered chatbot can handle the workload previously managed by 700 full-time customer service agents. The company has reduced the average resolution time for customer service inquiries from 11 minutes to two while maintaining consistent customer satisfaction ratings compared to human agents.
What’s the financial payoff for this leader in AI deployment? The write up says:
Klarna reported a 73 percent increase in average revenue per employee compared to last year.
Klarna, however, is humane. According to the article:
Notably, none of the workforce reductions have been achieved through layoffs. Instead, the company has relied on a combination of natural staff turnover and a hiring freeze implemented last year.
That’s a relief. Some companies would deploy Microsoft software with AI and start getting rid of people. The financial benefits are significant. Plus, as long as the company chugs along in good enough mode, the smart software delivers a win for the firm.
Are there any downsides? None in the write up. There is a financial payoff on the horizon. The article states:
In July [2024], Chrysalis Investments, a major Klarna investor, provided a more recent valuation estimate, suggesting that the fintech firm could achieve a valuation between 15 billion and 20 billion dollars in an initial public offering.
But what if the AI acts like a brake on firm’s revenue growth and sales? Hey, this is an AI success. Why be negative? AI is wonderful and Klarna’s customers appear to be thrilled with smart software. I personally love speaking to smart chatbots, don’t you?
Stephen E Arnold, August 30, 2024
New Research about Telegram and Its Technology
August 29, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
Next week, my team and I will be presenting a couple of lectures to a group of US government cyber experts. Our topic is Telegram, which has been a focal point of my research team for most of 2024. Much of the information we have included in our talks will be new; that is, it presents a view of Telegram which is novel. However, we have available a public version of the material. Most of our work is delivered via video conferencing with PDFs of selected exhibits provided to those participating in a public version of our research.
For the Telegram project, the public lecture includes:
- A block diagram of the Telegram distributed system, including the crypto and social media components
- A timeline of Telegram innovations with important or high-impact innovations identified
- A flow diagram of the Open Network and its principal components
- Likely “next steps” for the distributed operation.
With the first stage of the French judiciary process involving the founder of Telegram completed, our research project has become one of the first operational analyses of what to many people outside of Russia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and other countries is unfamiliar. Although usage of Telegram in North America is increasing, the service is off the radar of many people.
In fact, knowledge of Telegram’s basic functions is sketchy. Our research revealed:
- Users lack knowledge of Telegram’s approach to encryption
- The role US companies play in keeping the service online and stable
- The automation features of the system
- The reach of certain Telegram dApps (distributed applications) and YouTube, to cite one example.
The public version of our presentation at the US government professionals will be available in mid-September 2024. If you are interested in this lecture, please, write benkent2020 at yahoo dot com. One of the Beyond Search team will respond to your inquiry with dates and fees, if applicable.
Stephen E Arnold, August 29, 2024
Yelp Google Legal Matter: A Glimpse of What Is to Come
August 29, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
Yelp.com is one of the surviving re-inventions of the Yellow Pages. The online guide includes snapshots of a business, user reviews, and conveniences like classifications of business types. The company has asserted that Google has made the finding services’ life difficult. “Yelp Sues Google in Wake of Landmark Antitrust Ruling on Search” reports:
Yelp has spoken out about what it considers to be Google’s anticompetitive conduct for well over a decade. But the timing of Yelp’s lawsuit, filed just weeks after a Washington federal judge ruled that Google illegally monopolized the search market through exclusive deals, suggests that more companies may be emboldened to take action against the search leader in the coming months.
Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough.
Yelp, like other efforts to build a business in the shadow of Google’s monolith has pointed out that the online advertising giant has acted in a way that inhibited Yelp’s business. In the years prior to Judge Mehta’s ruling that Google was — hang on now, gentle reader — a monopoly, Yelp’s objections went nowhere. However, since Google learned that Judge Mehta decided against Google’s arguments that it was a mom and pop business too, Yelp is making another run at Googzilla.
The write up points out:
In its complaint, Yelp recounts how Google at first sought to move users off its search page and out onto the web as quickly as possible, giving rise to a thriving ecosystem of sites like Yelp that sought to provide the information consumers were seeking. But when Google saw just how lucrative it could be to help users find which plumber to hire or which pizza to order, it decided to enter the market itself, Yelp alleges.
What’s an example of Google’s behavior toward Yelp and presumably other competitors? The write up says:
In its complaint, Yelp recounts how Google at first sought to move users off its search page and out onto the web as quickly as possible, giving rise to a thriving ecosystem of sites like Yelp that sought to provide the information consumers were seeking. But when Google saw just how lucrative it could be to help users find which plumber to hire or which pizza to order, it decided to enter the market itself, Yelp alleges.
The Google has, it appears, used a relatively simple method of surfing on queries for Yelp content. The technique is “self preferencing”; that is, Google just lists its own results above Yelp hits.
Several observations:
- Yelp has acted quickly, using the information in Judge Mehta’s decision as a surfboard
- Other companies will monitor this Yelp Google matter. If Yelp prevails, other companies which perceive themselves as victims of Google’s business tactics may head to court as well
- Google finds itself in a number of similar legal dust ups which add operating friction to the online advertising vendor’s business processes.
Google, like Gulliver, may be pinned down, tied up, and neutralized the way Gulliver was in Lilliput. That was satirical fiction; Yelp is operating in actual life.
Stephen E Arnold, August 29, 2024
Online Sports Gambling: Some Negatives Have Been Identified by Brilliant Researchers
August 29, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
People love gambling, especially when they’re betting on the results of sports. Online has made sports betting very easy and fun. Unfortunately some people who bet on sports are addicted to the activity. Business Insider reveals the underbelly of online gambling and paints a familiar picture of addiction: “It’s Official: Legalized Sports Betting Is Destroying Young Men’s Financial Futures.” The University of California, Los Angeles shared a working paper about the negative effects of legalized sports gambling:
“…takes a look at what’s happened to consumer financial health in the 38 states that have greenlighted sports betting since the Supreme Court in 2018 struck down a federal law prohibiting it. The findings are, well, rough. The researchers found that the average credit score in states that legalized any form of sports gambling decreased by 0.3% after about four years and that the negative impact was stronger where online sports gambling is allowed, with credit scores dipping in those areas by 1%. They also found an 8% increase in debt-collection amounts and a 28% increase in bankruptcies where online sports betting was given the go-ahead. By their estimation, that translates to about 100,000 extra bankruptcies each year in the states that have legalized sports betting. The number of people who fell dangerously behind on their car loans went up, too. Oddly enough, credit-card delinquencies fell, but the researchers believe that’s because banks wind up lowering credit limits to try to compensate for the rise in risky consumer behavior.”
The researchers discovered that legalized gambling leads to more gambling addictions. They also found if a person lives near a casino or is from a poor region, they’ll more prone to gambling. This isn’t anything new! The paper restates information people have known for centuries about gambling and other addictions: hurts finances, leads to destroyed relationships, job loss, increased in illegal activities, etc.
A good idea is to teach people to restraint. The sports betting Web sites can program limits and even assist their users to manage their money without going bankrupt. It’s better for people to be taught restraint so they can roll the dice one more time.
Stephen E Arnold, August 29, 2024
Google Microtransaction Enabler: Chrome Beefs Up Its Monetization Options
August 29, 2024
![green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[1]_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb](https://arnoldit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t1_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb-1.gif "green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[1]_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb")
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
For its next trick, Google appears to be channeling rival Amazon. We learn from TechRadar that “Google Is Developing a New Web Monetization Feature for Chrome that Could Really Change the Way We Pay for Things Online.” Will this development distract anyone from the recent monopoly ruling?
Writer Kristina Terech explains how Web Monetization will work for commercial websites:
“In a new support document published on the Google Chrome Platform Status site, Google explains that Web Monetization is a new technology that will enable website owners ‘to receive micro payments from users as they interact with their content.’ Google states its intention is noble, writing that Web Monetization is designed to be a new option for webmasters and publishers to generate revenue in a direct manner that’s not reliant on ads or subscriptions. Google explains that with Web Monetization, users would pay for content while they consume it. It’s also added a new HTML link element for websites to add to their URL address to indicate to the Chrome browser that the website supports Web Monetization. If this is set correctly in the website’s URL, for websites that facilitate users setting up digital wallets on it, when a person visits that website, a new monetization session would be created (for that person) on the site. I’m immediately skeptical about monetizing people’s attention even further than it already is, but Google reassures us that visitors will have control over the whole process, like the choice of sites they want to reward in this way and how much money they want to spend.”
But like so many online “choices,” how many users will pay enough attention to make them? I share Terech’s distaste for attention monetization, but that ship has sailed. The danger here (or advantage, for merchants): Many users will increase their spending by barely noticeable amounts that add up to a hefty chunk in the end. On the other hand, the feature could reduce costly processing charges by eliminating per-payment fees for merchants. Whether end users see those savings, though, depends on whether vendors choose to pass them along.
Cynthia Murrell, August 29, 2024
Can an AI Journalist Be Dragged into Court and Arrested?
August 28, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I read “Being on Camera Is No Longer Sensible: Persecuted Venezuelan Journalists Turn to AI.” The main idea is that a video journalist can present the news, not a “real” human journalist. The write up says:
In daily broadcasts, the AI-created newsreaders have been telling the world about the president’s post-election crackdown on opponents, activists and the media, without putting the reporters behind the stories at risk.
The write up points out:
The need for virtual-reality newscasters is easy to understand given the political chill that has descended on Venezuela since Maduro was first elected in 2013, and has worsened in recent days.
Suppression of information seems to be increasing. With the detainment of Pavel Durov, Russia has expressed concern about this abrogation of free speech. Ukrainian government officials might find this rallying in support of Mr. Durov ironic. In April 2024, Telegram filtered content from Ukraine to Russian citizens.
An AI news presenter sitting in a holding cell. Government authorities want to discuss her approach to “real” news. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough.
Will AI “presenters” or AI “content” prevent the type of intervention suggested by Venezuelan-type government officials?
Several observations:
- Individual journalists may find that the AI avatar “plays” may not fool or amuse certain government authorities. It is possible that the use of AI and the coverage of the tactic in highly-regarded “real” news services exacerbates the problem. Somewhere, somehow a human is behind the avatar. The obvious question is, “Who is that person?”
- Once the individual journalist behind an avatar has been identified and included in an informal or formal discussion, who or what is next in the AI food chain? Is it an organization associated with “free speech”, an online service, or an organization like a giant high-technology company. What will a government do to explore a chat with these entities?
- Once the organization has been pinpointed, what about the people who wrote the software powering the avatar? What will a government do to interact with these individuals?
Step 1 seems fairly simple. Step 2 may involve some legal back and forth, but the process is not particularly novel. However, Step 3 presents a bit of a conundrum, and it presents some challenges. Lawyers and law enforcement for the country whose “laws” have been broken have to deal with certain protocols. Embracing different techniques can have significant political consequences.
My view is that using AI intermediaries is an interesting use case for smart software. The AI doomsayers invoke smart software taking over. A more practical view of AI is that its use can lead to actions which are at first tempests in tea pots. Then when a cluster of AI tea pots get dumped over, difficult to predict activities can emerge. The Venezuelan government’s response to AI talking heads delivering the “real” news is a precursor and worth monitoring.
Stephen E Arnold, August 28, 2024
Equal Opportunity Insecurity: Microsoft Mac Apps
August 28, 2024
Isn’t it great that Mac users can use Microsoft Office software on their devices these days? Maybe not. Apple Insider warns, “Security Flaws in Microsoft Mac Apps Could Let Attackers Spy on Users.” The vulnerabilities were reported by threat intelligence firm Cisco Talos. Writer Andrew Orr tells us:
“Talos claims to have found eight vulnerabilities in Microsoft apps for macOS, including Word, Outlook, Excel, OneNote, and Teams. These vulnerabilities allow attackers to inject malicious code into the apps, exploiting permissions and entitlements granted by the user. For instance, attackers could access the microphone or camera, record audio or video, and steal sensitive information without the user’s knowledge. The library injection technique inserts malicious code into a legitimate process, allowing the attacker to operate as the compromised app.”
Microsoft has responded with its characteristic good-enough approach to security. We learn:
“Microsoft has acknowledged vulnerabilities found by Cisco Talos but considers them low risk. Some apps, like Microsoft Teams, OneNote, and the Teams helper apps, have been modified to remove the this entitlement, reducing vulnerability. However, other apps, such as Microsoft Word, Excel, Outlook, and PowerPoint, still use this entitlement, making them susceptible to attacks. Microsoft has reportedly ‘declined to fix the issues,’ because of the company’s apps ‘need to allow loading of unsigned libraries to support plugins.’”
Well alright then. Leaving the vulnerability up for Outlook is especially concerning since, as Orr points out, attackers could use it to send phishing or other unauthorized emails. There is only so much users can do in the face of corporate indifference. The write-up advises us to keep up with app updates to ensure we get the latest security patches. That is good general advice, but it only works if appropriate patches are actually issued.
Cynthia Murrell, August 28, 2024
Am I Overly Sensitive to X (Twitter) Images?
August 28, 2024
X AI Creates Disturbing Images
The AI division of X, xAI, has produced a chatbot called Grok. Grok includes an image generator. Unlike ChatGPT and other AIs from major firms, Grok seems to have few guardrails. In fact, according to The Verge, “X’s New AI Image Generator Will Make Anything from Taylor Swift in Lingerie to Kamala Harris with a Gun.” Oh, if one asks Grok directly, it claims to have sensible guardrails and will even list a few. However, writes senior editor Adi Robertson:
“But these probably aren’t real rules, just likely-sounding predictive answers being generated on the fly. Asking multiple times will get you variations with different policies, some of which sound distinctly un-X-ish, like ‘be mindful of cultural sensitivities.’ (We’ve asked xAI if guardrails do exist, but the company hasn’t yet responded to a request for comment.) Grok’s text version will refuse to do things like help you make cocaine, a standard move for chatbots. But image prompts that would be immediately blocked on other services are fine by Grok.”
The article lists some very uncomfortable experimental images Grok has created and even shares a few. See the write-up if curious. We learn one X user found some frightening loopholes. When he told the AI he was working on medical or crime scene analysis, it allowed him to create some truly disturbing images. The write-up shares blurred versions of these. The same researcher says he got Grok to create child pornography (though he wisely does not reveal how). All this without a “Created with AI” watermark added by other major chatbots. Although he is aware of this issue, X owner Elon Musk characterizes this iteration of Grok as an “intermediate step” that allows users “to have some fun.” That is one way to put it. Robertson notes:
“Grok’s looseness is consistent with Musk’s disdain for standard AI and social media safety conventions, but the image generator is arriving at a particularly fraught moment. The European Commission is already investigating X for potential violations of the Digital Safety Act, which governs how very large online platforms moderate content, and it requested information earlier this year from X and other companies about mitigating AI-related risk. … The US has far broader speech protections and a liability shield for online services, and Musk’s ties with conservative figures may earn him some favors politically.”
Perhaps. But US legislators are working on ways to regulate deepfakes that impersonate others, particularly sexually explicit imagery. Combine that with UK regulator Ofcom’s upcoming enforcement of the OSA, and Musk may soon find a permissive Grok to be a lot less fun.
Cynthia Murrell, August 28, 2024
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