AI Balloon: Losing Air and Boring People
August 22, 2024
Though tech bros who went all-in on AI still promise huge breakthroughs just over the horizon, Windows Central’s Kevin Okemwa warns: “The Generative AI Bubble Might Burst, Sending the Tech to an Early Deathbed Before Its Prime: ‘Don’t Believe the Hype’.” Sadly, it is probably too late to save certain career paths, like coding, from an AI takeover. But perhaps a slowdown would conserve some valuable resources. Wouldn’t that be nice? The write-up observes:
“While AI has opened up the world to endless opportunities and untapped potential, its hype might be short-lived, with challenges abounding. Aside from its high water and power demands, recent studies show that AI might be a fad and further claim that 30% of its projects will be abandoned after proof of concept. Similar sentiments are echoed in a recent Blood In The Machine newsletter, which points out critical issues that might potentially lead to ‘the beginning of the end of the generative AI boom.’ From the Blood in the Machine newsletter analysis by Brian Merchant, who is also the Los Angeles Times’ technology columnist:
‘This is it. Generative AI, as a commercial tech phenomenon, has reached its apex. The hype is evaporating. The tech is too unreliable, too often. The vibes are terrible. The air is escaping from the bubble. To me, the question is more about whether the air will rush out all at once, sending the tech sector careening downward like a balloon that someone blew up, failed to tie off properly, and let go—or, more slowly, shrinking down to size in gradual sputters, while emitting embarrassing fart sounds, like a balloon being deliberately pinched around the opening by a smirking teenager.’”
Such evocative imagery. Merchant’s article also notes that, though Enterprise AI was meant to be the way AI firms made their money, it is turning out to be a dud. There are several reasons for this, not the least of which is AI models’ tendency to “hallucinate.”
Okemwa offers several points to support Merchant’s deflating-balloon claim. For example, Microsoft was recently criticized by investors for wasting their money on AI technology. Then there NVIDIA: The chipmaker recently became the most valuable company in the world thanks to astronomical demand for its hardware to power AI projects. However, a delay of its latest powerful chip dropped its stock’s value by 5%, and market experts suspect its value will continue to decline. The write-up also points to trouble at generative AI’s flagship firm, OpenAI. The company is plagued by a disturbing exodus of top executives, rumors of pending bankruptcy, and a pesky lawsuit from Elon Musk.
Speaking of Mr. Musk, how do those who say AI will kill us all respond to the potential AI downturn? Crickets.
Cynthia Murrell, August 22, 2024
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