Telegram: Pressure Mounting on the TON Entities
December 23, 2024
Observations from the Telegram research team.
Two apparently unrelated news items provide tantalizing hints about what Telegram will do in 2025. The phrase “cornered animal” is typically not used to describe a 40 year old person with a lot of money, a large technical company, and allegedly more than 100 children. The FOGINT team thinks that the two word phrase may apply to Pavel Durov, the founder of VKontakte and Telegram.
Mr. Durov has been under the control of the French judiciary since August 2024. French legal proceeding can be slow and painstaking. Via his attorneys’ interaction with the French authorities and his own one-on-one discussions, Mr. Durov has indicated that he wants to cooperate with investigators in matters deemed to be illegal.
How has Telegram changed in the three months? One excellent run down of Telegram’s behavior appeared in the “report” published by Telegram. “Telegram Moderation Overview” provides some detail about Telegram’s “cooperation” in some law enforcement activities. The cited report covers Telegram’s view of banning CSAM, some terrorist communities (the term is, however, not defined by the Telegram author), and some general information about how many groups and channels have been blocked.
What’s notable is that the graphics in the write up illustrate that Telegram has been a consistent upholder of the “law” for a month:
A second item of information illustrates that despite the Telegram crypto push, resistance remains. Navigate to the “2024 Crypto Developer Report.” One interesting observation about Telegram and its “foundation’s” TONcoin is that it is not listed. Solana seems to be perking along. However, the TON developer outreach program lack magnitude to bump the needle in these data published by Electric Capital.
What happens if one views these two loosely related pieces of information together? Here are some ideas generated by the FOGINT team:
- Mr. Durov is not a “free” person, and he is making an effort to say, “Hey, we cooperate with law enforcement.”
- The November 2024 Telegram Foundation Gateway Conference was like a light show at a French chateau in the summer. There was what looked like big progress in partnerships, developer uptake, and financial performance. However, the Electric Capital report did not pay much attention.
- The TONcoin seems to be chugging along without much value movement. Hamsters in “kombat” may be excited. Actual uptake seems flat among developers in the Electric Capital sample.
Net net: Telegram is in a vulnerable position. Will Mr. Durov perceive himself as his next big thing in jeopardy? If so, he may become more problematic in 2025. A cornered ferret can be a quite dangerous beast.
Stephen E Arnold, December 23, 2024
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