Innovation: It Ebbs, It Flows, It Fizzles
February 26, 2025
Many would argue humanity is nothing if not creative. If not, we would be living the way we were thousands of years ago. But, asks the Financial Times, "Is Innovation Slowing Down? With Matt Clancy." Nah—Look how innovative iPhones and Windows upgrades are.
The post presents the audio of an interview between journalist John Burn-Murdoch and economist Matt Clancy. (The transcript can be found here.) The page introduces the interview:
"Productivity growth in the developed world has been on a downward trend since the 1960s. Meanwhile, gains in life expectancy have also slowed. And yet the number of dollars and researchers dedicated to R&D grows every year. In today’s episode, the FT’s Chief Data Reporter, John Burn-Murdoch, asks whether western culture has lost its previous focus on human progress and become too risk-averse, or whether the problem is simply that the low-hanging fruit of scientific research has already been plucked. He does so in conversation with innovation economist Matt Clancy, who is the author of the New Things Under the Sun blog, and a research fellow at Open Philanthropy, a non-profit foundation based in San Francisco that provides research grants."
The pair begin by recalling a theory of economic historian Joel Mokyr, who believes a growing belief in human progress and experimentation led to the Industrial Revolution. The perspective, believes Clancy, is supported by a 2023 study that examined thousands of political and scientific books from the 1500s–1700s. That research shows a growing interest in progress during that period. Sounds plausible.
But now, we learn, innovation appears to be in decline. Research output per scientist has decreased since 1960, despite increased funding. Productivity growth and technological output are also slowing. Is this because our culture has grown less interested in invention? To hear Clancy tell it, probably not. A more likely suspect is what economist Ben Jones dubbed the Burden of Knowledge. Basically, as humanity makes discoveries that build on each other, each human scientist has more to learn before they can contribute new ideas. This also means more individual specialization and more teamwork. Of course, adding meetings to the mix slows everything down.
The economist has suggestions, like funding models that reward risk-taking. He also believes artificial intelligence will significantly speed things up. Probably—but will it send us careening down the wrong paths? AI will have to get far better at not making mistakes, or making stuff up, before we should trust it at the helm of human progress.
Cynthia Murrell, February 26, 2025
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