Clarity: A Better Name Than Pluton. Pluton?

November 20, 2020

After two years, Clarity has finally made it out of Beta, we learn from “Microsoft Clarity Debuts as Free Analytics Tool with Heat Maps” at Search & Performance Marketing Daily. The free tool uses heat maps to analyze the behavior of visitors to one’s website. Reporter Laurie Sullivan writes:

“Clarity — designed to have a low impact on page-load times and there are no caps on traffic no matter what the number of visitors to the website — helps give marketers a deeper understanding of why at website performs one way and not another. It also provides anonymized heat maps and data that show where site visitors clicked and scrolled, and enables marketers to analyze use behavior on the website exactly as it happened through a job description code. Some of the data includes the name of the browser, and whether they are using a PC, tablet or mobile phone to access the site. Heat maps provide a visual way to examine large numbers of site visitor interactions. Microsoft built two types: click maps and scroll maps. While the heat maps tell marketers which pages get the most clicks, the click maps tell marketers what website page content visitors interact with the most. Areas in the map marked in red have the highest frequency of clicks and are usually centered on focal points.”

The heat maps let marketers know whether visitors are clicking where they want them to. It also reports certain behaviors—excessive scrolling, dead clicks, and rage clicks. The last term describes users clicking several times on a spot they believe should be a hyperlink but is not—one would want to either fix an intended link or tweak the graphics on those spots. The tool also supplies a dashboard that presents metrics of the overall traffic patterns, time spent on the site, and even concurrent JavaScript errors. Microsoft pledges Clarity complies with the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation.

But Pluton, Microsoft’s mystery processor? Pluton?

Cynthia Murrell, November 20, 2020

Surveys: These Marketing Devices Are Accurate, Right?

November 10, 2020

There’s nothing like a sample, a statistical sample, that is. What’s interesting is that the US polls seem to have been reflecting some interesting but marketing-type trends. The bastion of “real journalism”— the UK Daily Mail — published “…We Did a Good Job: Defiant Pollster Nate Silver Rushes to Defend His Profession after Another Systematic Failure of Polls in the Build-Up to an Election.” Bibliophiles will note that I have omitted the tasteful obscenity. I like to avoid using words likely to irritate the really smart software which edits blog posts.

The write up points out:

FiveThirtyEight founder and editor-in-chief Nate Silver hit back at those slamming the website for being so off with their election predictions.

Let’s think about why FiveThirtyEight and other polls seem to have predicted a reality different from the one generated by humanoids marking ballots.

First, there is the sample. Picking people at random is dependent on a number of factors: Sources, selection bias, humanoids who don’t respond, etc.

Second, there are the humanoids themselves. Some people plug in the “answers” which get the poll over with really fast. I lose interest at the first hint of dark patterns which make it tough to know how may questions I have to answer to get the coupon, pat on the head, or the free shopping sack.

Third, there is counting. Yep, humans or machine things can happen.

Fourth, there is analysis. It is remarkable what one can do when counting or doing “analytics.”

The Daily Mail quotes an expert about making polls better:

‘The polling profession needs to reshape and reorganize their questionnaires,’ Luntz [the polling expert] told DailyMail.com. ‘It’s the only way they’ll ever get it right.’

But I keep thinking about the FiveThirtyEight obscenity. Defensive? Eloquent? Subjective? Insightful?

That subjective thing.

Stephen E Arnold, November 10, 2020

Linear Math Textbook: For Class Room Use or Individual Study

October 30, 2020

Jim Hefferon’s Linear Algebra is a math textbook. You can get it for free by navigating to this page. From Mr. Hefferon’s Web page for the book, you can download a copy and access a range of supplementary materials. These include:

  • Classroom slides
  • Exercise sets
  • A “lab” manual which requires Sage
  • Video.

The book is designed for students who have completed one semester of calculus. Remember: Linear algebra is useful for poking around in search or neutralizing drones. Zaap. Highly recommended.

Stephen E Arnold, October 30, 2020

Exclusive: Interview with DataWalk’s Chief Analytics Officer Chris Westphal, Who Guides an Analytics Rocket Ship

October 21, 2020

I spoke with Chris Westphal, Chief Analytics Officer for DataWalk about the company’s string of recent contract “wins.” These range from commercial engagements to heavy lifting for the US Department of Justice.

Chris Westphal, founder of Visual Analytics (acquired by Raytheon) brings his one-click approach to advanced analytics.

The firm provides what I have described as an intelware solution. DataWalk ingests data and outputs actionable reports. The company has leap-frogged a number of investigative solutions, including IBM’s Analyst’s Notebook and the much-hyped Palantir Technologies’ Gotham products. This interview took place in a Covid compliant way. In my previous Chris Westphal interviews, we met at intelligence or law enforcement conferences. Now the experience is virtual, but as interesting and information in July 2019. In my most recent interview with Mr. Westphal, I sought to get more information on what’s causing DataWalk to make some competitors take notice of the company and its use of smart software to deliver what customers want: Results, not PowerPoint presentations and promises. We spoke on October 8, 2020.

DataWalk is an advanced analytics tool with several important innovations. On one hand, the company’s information processing system performs IBM i2 Analyst’s Notebook and Palantir Gotham type functions — just with a more sophisticated and intuitive interface. On the other hand, Westphal’s vision for advanced analytics has moved past what he accomplished with his previous venture Visual Analytics. Raytheon bought that company in 2013. Mr. Westphal has turned his attention to DataWalk. The full text of our conversation appears below.

Read more

Tickeron: The Commercial System Which Reveals What Some Intel Professionals Have Relied on for Years

October 16, 2020

Are you curious about the capabilities of intelware systems developed by specialized services firms? You can gat a good idea about the type of information available to an authorized user:

  • Without doing much more than plugging in an entity with a name
  • Without running ad hoc queries like one does on free Web search systems unless there is a specific reason to move beyond the provided output
  • Without reading a bunch of stuff and trying to figure out what’s reliable and what’s made up by a human or a text robot
  • Without having to spend time decoding a table of numbers, a crazy looking chart, or figuring out weird colored blobs which represent significant correlations.

Sound like magic?

Nope, it is the application of pattern matching and established statistical methods to streams of data.

The company delivering this system, tailored to Robinhood-types and small brokerages, has been assembled by Tickeron. There’s original software, some middleware, and some acquired technology. Data are ingested and outputs indicate what to buy or sell or to know, as a country western star crooned, “know when to hold ‘em.”

A rah rah review appeared in The Stock Dork. “Tickeron Review: An AI-Powered Trading Platform That’s Worth the Hype” provides a reasonably good overview of the system. If you want to check out the system, navigate to Tickeron’s Web site.

Here’s an example of a “card,” the basic unit of information output from the system:

image

The key elements are:

  • Icon to signal “think about buying” the stock
  • A chart with red and green cues
  • A hot link to text
  • A game angle with the “odds” link
  • A “more” link
  • Hashtags (just like Twitter).

Now imaging this type of data presented to an intel officer monitoring a person of interest. Sound useful? The capability has been available for more than a decade. It’s interesting to see this type of intelware finds its way to those who want to invest like the wizards at the former Bear Stearns (remember that company, the bridge players, the implosion?).

DarkCyber thinks that the high-priced solutions available from Wall Street information providers may wonder about the $15 a month fee for the Tickeron service.

Keep in mind that predictions, if right, can allow you to buy an exotic car, an island, and a nice house in a Covid-free location. If incorrect, there’s van life.

The good news is that the functionality of intelware is finally becoming more widely available.

Stephen E Arnold, October 16, 2020

Rah, Rah, Sis Boom Analytics. No, Wait. Boo, Boo, Hiss, Hiss Analytics

October 16, 2020

One of the DarkCyber researchers alerted me to “Most CMOs Disappointed with Analytics Results.” We are wrapping up an interview with one of the senior technologists at Datawalk, and the topic of complexity in easy-to-use analytics systems was a topic of discussion. Watch for this revealing interview in an upcoming issue of DarkCyber.

The article about disappointed CMOs is not surprising. What is surprising is that individuals with expectations that smart software will generate just the answer one needs to generate bigly sales are so widespread.

The write up reports citing a study by the mid-tier consulting firm Gartner Group:

“Though CMOs understand the importance of applying analytics throughout the marketing organization, many struggle to quantify the relationship between insights gathered and their company’s bottom line. In fact, nearly half of respondents in this year’s survey say they’re unable to measure marketing ROI,” says Lizzy Foo Kune, senior director analyst in the Gartner Marketing practice. “This inability to measure ROI tarnishes the perceived value of the analytics team.”

Other findings from the study of 415 marketing “leaders” are:

  • Training staff is not a priority
  • Data science and campaigns are behind other analytic use cases
  • Most organizations will spend more for analytics.

These types of surveys deliver results that gild the available lilies.

For those without numerical skills and training, many of today’s analytic tools are like to disappoint. The digital oracle of Delphi is not working particularly well for many users. Even individuals with a couple of statistics courses on their record have to spend time familiarizing themselves with the analytic tools and their options. Plus if bad data go in, not even a super smart system can produce silk purses from chubby data pigs. Nevertheless, MBAs believe in analytics and, of course, magic.

Stephen E Arnold, October 16, 2020

Spreadsheet Fever Case Example

October 12, 2020

I have been using the phrase “spreadsheet fever” to describe the impact of fiddling with numbers in Microsoft Excel has on MBAs. With Excel providing the backbone for numerous statistical confections, the sugar hit of magic assumptions cannot be under-estimated. The mental structure of a crazed investment analyst brooks no interference from common sense.

Excel: Why Using Microsoft’s Tool Caused Covid-19 Results to Be Lost” provides a possible case example of what happens when thumbtypers and over-confident innumerates tangle with a digital spreadsheet. No green eyeshades and no pencils needed. Calculators? One can hear a 22 year old ask, “What’s a calculator? I have one on my iPhone?”

The Beeb reports:

PHE [Public Health England, a fine UK entity] had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team, as well as other government computer dashboards.

And what tool did these over confident wizards use?

Microsoft Excel, the weapon of choice for business and STEM analysis, of course.

How did the experts wander off the information highway into a thicket of errors? The Beeb explains:

The problem is that PHE’s own developers picked an old file format to do this – known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of. And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

The fix? Can kicking perhaps:

But insiders acknowledge that the current clunky system needs to be replaced by something more advanced that excludes Excel, as soon as possible.

Righto.

Stephen E Arnold, October 12, 2020

9 21

September 20, 2020

One of the DarkCyber research team came across this chart on the Datawrapper Web site. Datawrapper provides millennial-ready analysis tools. With some data and the firm’s software, anyone can produce a chart like this one with green bars for negative numbers.

datawrapper chicago

What is the chart displaying. The odd green bar shows the decline in job postings. Why green? No idea. What is the source of the data? Glassdoor, a job listings site. The data apply only to Chicago, Illinois. The time period is August 2020 versus August 2019. The idea is that the longer the bar, the greater the decline. Why is the bar green? Isn’t red a more suitable color for negative numbers?

Shown in this image are the top 12 sectors for job loss. To be clear, the longer the bar, the fewer job postings. Fewer job postings, one assumes, translates to reduced opportunities for employment.

What’s interesting is that accounting, consulting, information technology, telecommunications, and computer software and hardware are big losers. Those expensive MBAs, the lost hours studying for the CPA examination, and thumb typing through man pages are gone for now.

Observations:

  • The colors? Red maybe.
  • The decline in high technology work and knowledge work is interesting.
  • The “open jobs” numbers are puzzling. Despite declines, Chicago – the city of big shoulders and big challenges – has thousands of jobs in declining sectors.

Net net: IT and computer software and hardware look promising. The chart doesn’t do the opportunities justice. And the color?

Stephen E Arnold, September 20, 2020

Count Bayesie Speaks Truth

September 10, 2020

Navigate to “Why Bayesian Stats Needs More Monte Carlo Methods.” Each time I read an informed write up about the 18th century Presbyterian minister who could do some math, I think about a fellow who once aspired to be the Robert Maxwell of content management. Noble objective is it not?

That person grew apoplectic when I explained how Autonomy in the early 1990s was making use of mathematical procedures crafted in the 18th century. I wish I have made a TikTok video of his comical attempt to explain that a human or software system should not under any circumstances inject a data point that was speculative.

Well, my little innumeric content management person, get used to Bayes. Plus there’s another method at which you can rage and bay. Yep, Monte Carlo. If you were horrified by the good Reverend’s idea, wait until you did into Monte Carlo. Strapping these two stastical stallions to the buggy called predictive analytics is commonplace.

The write up closes poetically, which may be more in line with the fuzzy wuzzy discipline of content management:

It may be tempting to blame the complexity of the details of Bayesian methods, but it’s important to realize that when we are taught the beauty of calculus and analytical methods we are often limited to a relatively small set of problems that map well to the solutions of calc 101. When trying to solve real world problems mathematically complex problems pop up everywhere and analytical solutions either escape or fail us.

Net net: Use what matches the problem. Also, understand the methods. Key word: Understand.

Stephen E Arnold, September 10, 2020

Data Brokers: A Partial List

September 7, 2020

DarkCyber has fielded several inquiries in the last three months about data brokers. My response has been to point out that some data brokers are like quinoa farmers near Cusco: Small, subsistence data reselling; others are like Consolidated Foods, the industrialized outfits.

Yon can review a partial list of data brokers on this Github page. However, I want to point out:

  • Non US data brokers have information as well. Some of that information is particularly interesting, and it is unlikely that the average email phisher or robocall outfit will have access to these data. (No, I am not listing some of these interesting firms.)
  • There are several large data brokers not on this list. In my lectures I mention a giant data broker wanna be, but in most cases when I say “Amazon”, the response is, “My family uses Amazon a couple of times a week.” I don’t push back. I just move forward. What one does not know does not exist for some people.
  • Aggregating services with analytics plumbing are probably more important than individual chunks of data from either the quinoa farmers or from a combine. Why? With three items of data and a pool of “maybe useful” content, it is possible to generate some darned interesting outputs.

Putting the focus on a single type of digital artifact is helpful, sometimes interesting, and may be a surprise to some uninformed big time researcher. But the magic of applied analytics is where the oomph is.

Stephen E Arnold, September 7, 2020

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