AI: Well, Maybe, Er, Not Exactly Yet
January 21, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I don’t spend much time with 20 somethings if I can help it. I know that if I use a term like “fancy dancing”, I get a glazed look. Right, 6-7? But how about the word “crawfish.” If you think this is something one eats in a paella at a restaurant in Valencia, you will want to know that my use of the word means “retreat from a previous commitment. When a corporate executive crawfishes, that estimable profession wants to get the heck away from one’s original position. Thus, when a big time big tech outfit’s leadership says, “Well, uh, yeah, AI is… well, you know, guess what? That is the sound of a crawfisher.
Executives are backing away from the AI robot. Thanks, Venice.ai. Not what I wanted but good enough, just like AI, right?
Okay, consider this statement from the Irish Times:
“So the [intellectual property] of any application or any firm is, how do you use all these models with context engineering or your data? As long as firms can answer that question, they’re gonna be getting ahead.”
Is this statement:
[a] A crystal clear explanation about how to make progress with AI
[b] A statement from a big time management consultant who uses classy words like “gonna”
[c] Crawfishing?
Let’s come at this from a different angle. Here’s a shameless content marketing article from Forbes. (Malcolm, I know you are spinning in heaven, but Forbes is different now.) “Why AI Needs a Strategy Before It Needs a Tool” states:
Most executives bought AI tools with zero strategic intention. No outcomes defined. No KPIs. No ownership. No activation plan. That is why AI adoption stalled…. It was always a strategy issue.
This does not seem to be crawfishing. The author is pointing out that smart software has stumbled trying to catch a cangrejos de río and is in danger of drowning in a stream in Spain, the strategy will drown the person, not the water.
And one more vector. This one is from the boo birds at the Guardian. “Artificial Intelligence Research Has a Slop Problem, Academics Say: ‘It’s a Mess’” points out:
it is almost impossible to know what’s actually going on in AI – for journalists, the public, and even experts in the field
With my reference to the Procambarus clarkii, what’s the point. The old AI razzmatazz seems to be something folks want to back away from. Reality bites hard. And what about those data centers that could endanger crawfish in some parts of the US of A. Rest easy, little critters, those may lack the power to light up the little blue, red, and green LEDs.
Stephen E Arnold, January 21, 2026
Meta Management: Building More Sort Of Maybe
January 21, 2026
Modern management examples are often difficult to figure out. One company with an interesting management approach is Meta (né Facebook).
Meta is focused on growing its AI to be the best in the tech industry, but they’re certainly going about it like an ADHD kid. Does Zuckerberg have that along with autism? We don’t know but we do know that CNBC examines the details about Meta’s strategy: “From Llamas To Avocados: Meta’s Shifting AI Strategy Is Causing Internal Confusion.”
Meta currently has a hiring spree in hopes to rival Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. It, however, remains behind its competitors who continue to roll out further advances in AI technology. Meta is working on a successor to Llama and it is developing a new AI model named Avocado.
Meanwhile Wall Street is scratching its head and wondering where Meta is headed. Investors are curious about Meta’s ROI and its investment levels. People are still advised to buy stock in Meta (and Alphabet too).
Here’s what Zuckerberg thinks according the estimable CNBC information service:
“But Zuckerberg has much grander ambitions, and the new guard he’s brought in to push the future vision of AI has no background in online ads. The 41-year-old founder, with a net worth of more than $230 billion, has suggested that if Meta doesn’t take big swings, it risks becoming an afterthought in a world that’s poised to be defined by AI.”
He’s debating about what to release via open source and what to make proprietary.
Several observations:
- There is some reported management actions in the helmet and goggle unit. RIFs I think these are called
- One of the former big guns in AI at Meta is now in France grousing about Meta’s management methods. (Personally I find these types of company complainers fascinating. Mr. Zuckerberg did not. Yann LeCun ponder AI and complains.)
- The organization of the firm is under the seasoned, mature, well-informed professional AI Wang.
Will Meta’s management method lead the firm to AI glory? Online advertising will keep the money flowing, but will Meta be able to compete, catch up, and then pull ahead of the Apple-Google combine, the hyper promoting OpenAI, or the consulting boutique Googzilla? Yeah, sure.
Whitney Grace, January 21, 2026
Microsoft: Budgeting Data Centers How Exactly?
January 20, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Here’s how bean counters and MBA work. One gathers assumptions. Depending on the amount of time one has, the data collection can be done blue chip consulting style; that is, over weeks or months of billable hours. Alternatively, bean counters and MBA can sit in a conference room, talk, jot stuff on a white board, and let one person pull the assumptions into an Excel-type of spreadsheet. Then fill in the assumptions, some numbers based on hard data (unlikely in many organizations) and some guess-timates and check the “flow” of the numbers. Once the numbers have the right optics, reconvene in the conference room, talk, write on the white board, and the same lucky person gets to make the fixes. Once the flow is close enough for horse shoes, others can eyeball the numbers. Maybe a third party will be asked to “validate” the analysis? And maybe not?
Softies are working overtime on the AI data center budget. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough. Apologies to Copilot. Your output is less useful than Venice’s. Bummer.
We now know that Microsoft’s budgeting for its big beautiful build out of data centers will need to be reworked. Not to worry. If the numbers are off, the company can raise the price of an existing service or just fire however many people needed to free up some headroom. Isn’t this how Boeing-type companies design and build aircraft? (Snide comments about cutting corners to save money are not permitted. Thank you.)
How do “we” know this? I read in GeekWire (an estimable source I believe) this story: “Microsoft Responds to AI Data Center Revolt, Vowing to Cover Full Power Costs and Reject Local Tax Breaks.” I noted this passage about Microsoft’s costs for AI infrastructure:
The new plan, announced Tuesday morning [January 13, 2026) in Washington, D.C, includes pledges to pay the company’s full power costs, reject local property tax breaks, replenish more water than it uses, train local workers, and invest in AI education and community programs.
Yep, pledges. Just ask any religious institution about the pledge conversion ratio. Pledges are not cold, hard cash. Why are the Softies doing executive level PR about its plans to build environmentally friendly and family friendly data centers? People in fly over areas are not thrilled with increased costs for power and water, noise pollution from clever repurposed jet engines and possible radiation emission from those refurbed nuclear power plants in unused warships, and the general idea of watching good old empty land covered with football stadium sized tan structures.
Now back to the budget estimates for Microsoft’s data center investments. Did those bean counters include set asides for the “full power costs,” property taxes, water management, and black hole costs for “invest in AI education and community.”
Nope.
That means “pledges” are likely to be left fuzzy, defined on the fly, or just forgotten like Bob, the clever interface with precursor smart software. Sorry, Copilot Bob’s help and Clippy missed the mark. You may too for one reason: Apple and Google have teamed up in an even bigger way than before.
That brings me back to the bean counters at Microsoft, a uni shuttle bus full of MBAs, and a couple of railroad passenger cars filled with legal eagles. The money assumptions need a rethink.
Brad Smith, the Microsoft member of “leadership” blaming security breaches on 1,000 Russian hackers, wants this PR to work. The write up reports that Mr. Smith, the member of Microsoft leadership said:
Smith promised new levels of transparency… The companies that succeed with data centers in the long run will be the companies that have a strong and healthy relationship with local communities. Microsoft’s plan starts by addressing the electricity issue, pledging to work with utilities and regulators to ensure its electricity costs aren’t passed on to residential customers. Smith cited a new “Very Large Customers” rate structure in Wisconsin as a model, where data centers pay the full cost of the power they use, including grid upgrades required to support them.
And that’s not all. The pledge includes this ethically charged corporate commitment. I quote:
- “A 40% improvement in water efficiency by 2030, plus a pledge to replenish more water than it uses in each district where it operates. (Microsoft cited a recent $25 million investment in water and sewer upgrades in Leesburg, Va., as an example.)
- A new partnership with North America’s Building Trades Unions for apprenticeship programs, and expansion of its Datacenter Academy for operations training.
- Full payment of local property taxes, with no requests for municipal tax breaks.
- AI training through schools, libraries, and chambers of commerce, plus new Community Advisory Boards at major data center sites.”
I hear the background music. I think it is the double fugue or Kyrie in Mozart’s Requiem, but I may be wrong. Yes, I am. That is the sound track for the group reworking the numbers for Microsoft’s “beat Google” data center spend.
You can listen to Mozart’s Requiem on YouTube. My hunch is that the pledge is likely to be part of the Microsoft legacy. As a dinobaby, I would suggest that Microsoft’s legacy is blaming users for Microsoft’s security issues and relying on PR when it miscalculates [a] how people react to the excellent company’s moves and [b] its budget estimates for Copilot, the aircraft, the staff, the infrastructure, and the odds and ends.
Net net: Microsoft’s PR better be better than its AI budgeting.
Stephen E Arnold, January 20, 2026
Grok Is Spicy and It Did Not Get the Apple Deal
January 16, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
First, Gary Marcus makes clear that AI is not delivering the goods. Then a fellow named Tom Renner explains that LLMs are just a modern variation of a “confidence trick” that’s been in use for centuries. I then bumbled into a paywalled post from an outfit named Vox. The write up about AI is “Grok’s Nonconsensual Porn Problem is Part of a Long, Gross Legacy.”
Unlike Dr. Marcus and Mr. Renner, Vox focuses on a single AI outfit. Is this fair? Nah, but it does offer some observations that may apply to the entire band of “if we build it, they will come” wizards. Spoiler: I am not coming for AI. I will close with an observation about the desperation that is roiling some of the whiz kids.
First, however, what does Vox have to say about the “I am a genius. I want to spawn more like me. I want to colonize Mars” superman. I urge you to subscribe the Vox. I will highlight a couple of passages about the genius Elon Musk. (I promised I won’t mention the department of government efficiency project. I project. DOGE DOGE DOGE. Yep, I lied must like some outfits have. Thank goodness I am an 81 year old dinobaby in rural Kentucky. I can avoid AI, but DOGE DOGE DOGE, not a chance.
Here’s the first statement I circled on my print out of the expensive Vox article:
Elon Musk claims tech needs a “spicy mode” to dominate. Is he right?
I can answer this question: No, only those who want to profit from salacious content want a spicy mode. People who deal in spicy modes made VHS tapes a thing much to the chagrin of Sony. People who create spicy mode content helped sell some virtual reality glasses. I sure didn’t buy any. Spicy at age 81 is walking from room to room in my two room log cabin in the Kentucky hollow in which I live.
Here’s the second passage in the write up I check marked:
Musk has remained committed to the idea that Grok would be the sexiest AI model. On X, Musk has defended the choice on business grounds, citing the famous tale of how VHS beat Betamax in the 1980s after the porn industry put its weight behind VHS, with its larger storage capacity. “VHS won in the end,” Musk posted, “in part because they allowed spicy mode.
Does this mean that Elon analyzed the p_rn industry when he was younger? For business reasons only I presume. I wonder if he realizes that Grok and perhaps the Tesla businesses may be adversely affected by the spicy stuff. No, I won’t. I won’t. Yes, I will. DOGE DOGE DOGE
Here’s the final snip:
A more accurate phrasing, however, might be to say that in our misogynistic society, objectifying and humiliating the bodies of unconsenting women is so valuable that the fate of world-altering technologies depends on how good they are at facilitating it. AI was always going to be used for this, one way or the other. But only someone as brutally uncaring and willing to cut corners as Elon Musk would allow it to go this wrong.
Snappy.
But the estimable Elon Musk has another thorn in the driver’s seat of his Tesla. Apple, a company once rumored to be thinking about buying the car company, signed another deal with Apple. The gentle and sometimes smarmy owner of Android, online advertising, and surveillance technology is going to provide AI to the wonderful wonderful Apple.
I think Mr. Musk’s Grok is a harbinger of a spring time blossoming of woe for much of the AI sector. There are data center pushbacks. There are the Chinese models available for now as open source. There are regulators in the European Union who want to hear the ka-ching of cash registers after another fine is paid by an American AI outfit.
I think the spicy angle just helps push Mr. Musk and Grok to the head of the line for AI pushback. I hope not. I wonder if Mr. Musk will resume talks with Pavel Durov about providing Grok as an AI engine for Nikolai Durov’s new approach to smart software. I await spring.
Stephen E Arnold, January 16, 2026
Apple and Google: Lots of Nots, Nos, and Talk
January 15, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
This is the dinobaby, an 81 year old dinobaby. In my 60 plus year work career I have been around, in, and through what I call “not and no” PR. The basic idea is that one floods the zones with statements about what an organization will do. Examples range from “our Wi-Fi sniffers will not log home access point data” to “our AI service will not capture personal details” to “our security policies will not hamper usability of our devices.” I could go on, but each of these statements were uttered in meetings, in conference “hallway” conversations, or in public podcasts.
Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough. See I am prevaricating. This image sucks. The logos are weird. GW looks like a wax figure.
I want to tell you that if the Nots and Nos identified in the flood of write ups about the Apple Google AI tie up immutable like Milton’s description of his God, the nots and nos are essentially pre-emptive PR. Both firms are data collection systems. The nature of the online world is that data are logged, metadata captured and mindlessly processed for a statistical signal, and content processed simply because “why not?”
Here’s a representative write up about the Apple Google nots and nos: “Report: Apple to Fine-Tune Gemini Independently, No Google Branding on Siri, More.” So what’s the more that these estimable firms will not do? Here’s an example:
Although the final experience may change from the current implementation, this partly echoes a Bloomberg report from late last year, in which Mark Gurman said: “I don’t expect either company to ever discuss this partnership publicly, and you shouldn’t expect this to mean Siri will be flooded with Google services or Gemini features already found on Android devices. It just means Siri will be powered by a model that can actually provide the AI features that users expect — all with an Apple user interface.”
How about this write up: “Official: Apple Intelligence & Siri To Be Powered By Google Gemini.”
Source details how Apple’s Gemini deal works: new Siri features launching in spring and at WWDC, Apple can finetune Gemini, no Google branding, and more
Let’s think about what a person who thinks the way my team does. Here are what we can do with these nots and nos:
- Just log everything and don’t talk about the data
- Develop specialized features that provide new information about use of the AI service
- Monitor the actions of our partners so we can be prepared or just pounce on good ideas captured with our “phone home” code
- Skew the functionality so that our partners become more dependent on our products and services; for example, exclusive features only for their users.
The possibilities are endless. Depending upon the incentives and controls put in place for this tie up, the employees of Apple and Google may do what’s needed to hit their goals. One can do PR about what won’t happen but the reality of certain big technology companies is that these outfits defy normal ethical boundaries, view themselves as the equivalent of nation states, and have a track record of insisting that bending mobile devices do not bend and that information of a personal nature is not cross correlated.
Watch the pre-emptive PR moves by Apple and Google. These outfits care about their worlds, not those of the user.
Just keep in mind that I am an old, very old, dinobaby. I have some experience in these matters.
Stephen E Arnold, January 15, 2025
Apple Google Prediction: Get Real, Please
January 13, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Prediction is a risky business. I read “No, Google Gemini Will Not Be Taking Over Your iPhone, Apple Intelligence, or Siri.” The write up asserts:
Apple is licensing a Google Gemini model to help make Apple Foundation Models better. The deal isn’t a one-for-one swap of Apple Foundation Models for Gemini ones, but instead a system that will let Apple keep using its proprietary models while providing zero data to Google.
Yes, the check is in the mail. I will jump on that right now. Let’s have lunch.
Two giant creatures find joy in their deepening respect and love for one another. Will these besties step on the ants and grass under their paws? Will they leave high-value information on the shelf? What a beautiful relationship! Will these two get married? Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.
Each of these breezy statements sparks a chuckle in those who have heard direct statements and know that follow through is unlikely.
The article says:
Gemini is not being weaved into Apple’s operating systems. Instead, everything will remain Apple Foundation Models, but Gemini will be the "foundation" of that.
Yep, absolutely. The write up presents this interesting assertion:
To reiterate: everything the end user interacts with will be Apple technology, hosted on Apple-controlled server hardware, or on-device and not seen by Apple or anybody else at all. Period.
Plus, Apple is a leader in smart software. Here’s the article’s presentation of this interesting idea:
Apple has been a dominant force in artificial intelligence development, regardless of what the headlines and doom mongers might say. While Apple didn’t rush out a chatbot or claim its technology could cause an apocalypse, its work in the space has been clearly industry leading. The biggest problem so far is that the only consumer-facing AI features from Apple have been lackluster and got a tepid consumer response. Everything else, the research, the underlying technology, the hardware itself, is industry leading.
Okay. Several observations:
- Apple and Google have achieved significant market share. A basic rule of online is that efficiency drives the logic of consolidation. From my point of view, we now have two big outfits, their markets, their products, and their software getting up close and personal.
- Apple and Google may not want to hook up, but the financial upside is irresistible. Money is important.
- Apple, like Telegram, is taking time to figure out how to play the AI game. The approach is positioned as a smart management move. Why not figure out how to keep those users within the friendly confines of two great companies? The connection means that other companies just have to be more innovative.
Net net: When information flows through online systems, metadata about those actions presents an opportunity to learn more about what users and customers want. That’s the rationale for leveraging the information flows. Words may not matter. Money, data, and control do.
Stephen E Arnold, January 13, 2026
Pavel Durov Outputs His Philosophy That GOATs Do Not Worry.
January 13, 2026
The creator behind the anonymous messaging service Telegram Pavel Durov was charged in 2024 with allegations of drug trafficking, child pornography, organized fraud, and money laundering. Durov is a private individual. He left Russia in 2014 to preserve his freedom of expressive. He provided Le Point with an exclusive interview: “Pavel Durov On His Arrest In France, Macron, Russia, The FBI — And The Fight For Telegram.”
When he was questioned about bad actors using Telegram for nefarious purposes, Durov said that doesn’t make him or his associates who run the platform criminals. He also asserts that the allegations won’t stick, that the French police didn’t correctly follow international procedures, and Telegram how to show them how to proceed.
Durov was questioned if he had any ties with Russia and was close with Putin. He claims that he only met Putin once when he was head of the Russian version of Facebook. He was told that he had to comply with Russian authorities or face the consequences. Durov also denies that he works with Russian authorities and that he only travels to Russia to visit his family.
After sharing his opinion about the current state of technology, Donald Trump, and the world at large. Durov was asked about his competitors. He said that WhatsApp copies everything Telegram does, that Zuckerberg needs more imagination (despite having a large amount of respect for him), and he admires Signal messaging.
He’s had many offers to buy Telegram, including Google which offered him $1 billion. He declines and states:
“It’s not a question of price, Telegram is simply not for sale.”
He continued that he’s still Telegram’s sole shareholder, because he wants to guarantee Telegram’s independence. He doesn’t want to lose control and thusly freedom.
Durov also detailed that he doesn’t have any regrets about Telegram’s development. He keeps a small “core” team of fifty people based in Dubai, because small teams move faster. His brother Nikolai, whom he describes as a genius with two Ph.D.s, is experimenting with AI. Surprisingly he suggests Nikolai no longer works on Telegram with Durov. When queried about what AI will do for the future and jobs, he said.
“We are experiencing unprecedented technological acceleration. For a teenager, adapting is natural. But for experienced professionals, like lawyers or doctors who earn high salaries, the transition will be brutal. Their perceived value in the market could diminish, even if they are excellent. Yes, jobs will disappear. But history shows that others will appear. What matters is the wealth created. Living like a king without having to work like a slave is a form of progress. And as long as we want to create, to bring something to society, there will be a place for everyone.”
Telegram is also money pit. That’s true. The firm’s most recent financial report reveals a loss of more than $220 million US dollars in 2025. But Pavel Durov is a GOAT, or, rather, the greatest of all time in Russia. This is similar to Google’s pronouncements about its role in today’s world. However, Pavel Durov is heading to trial in France for a line up of charges related to some interesting crimes. Is he worried? Nah. GOATs don’t worry.
Whitney Grace, January 13, 2026
Dell Reveals the Future of AI for Itself
January 12, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I was flipping through my Russian technology news feed and spotted an interesting story. “Consumers Don’t Buy Devices Because They Have AI. Dell Has Admitted That AI in Products Can Confuse Customers.” Yep, Russian technology media pays attention to AI signals from big outfits.
The write up states:
the company admits that at least for now this is not particularly important for users.
The Russian article then quotes from a Dell source:
You’ll notice one thing: we didn’t prioritize artificial intelligence as our primary goal when developing our products. So there’s been some shift from a year ago when we focused entirely on AI PCs. We are very focused on realizing the power of artificial intelligence in devices — in fact, all the devices we announce use a neural processor —, but over the course of this year we have realized that consumers are not buying devices because of the presence of AI. In fact, I think AI is more likely to confuse them than to help them understand a particular outcome.
Good enough, ChatGPT.
The chatter about an AI bubble notwithstanding, this Russian news item probes an important issue. AI may not be a revolution. It is “confusing” to some computer customers. The true believers are the ones writing checks to fund the engineering and plumbing required to allow an inanimate machine behave like a human. The word “confusing” is an important one. The messages about smart software don’t make sense to some people.
Dell, to its credit, listened to its customers and changed its approach. The AI goodness is in the device, but the gizmo is presented as a computer that a user can, confused or not, use to check email, write a message, and watch doom scroll by.
Let’s look at this from a different viewpoint. Google and Microsoft want to create AI operating systems. The decade old or older bits of software plumbing have to be upgraded. If the future is smart software, then the operating systems have to be built on smart software. To the believers, the need to AI everything is logical and obvious.
If we look at it from the point of view of a typical Dell customer, the AI jabber is confusing. What’s confusing mean? To me, confusing means unclear. AI marketing is definitely that. I am not sure I understand how typing a query and getting a response is not presented as “search and retrieval.” AI is also bewildering. I have watched a handful of YouTube AI explainer videos. I think I understand, but the reality for me is that AI seems to be a collection of methods developed over the last couple hundred years integrated to index text and output probabilistic sequences. Some make sense to an eighth grader wanting help with a 200 word paragraph about the Lincoln-Douglas debates. However, it wou8ld be difficult for the same kid to get information about Honest Abe’s sleeping with a guy for years. Yep, baffling. Explaining to a judge why an AI system made up case citations to legal actions that did not take place is not just mystifying. The use of AI costs the lawyer money, credibility, and possibly the law license. Yep, puzzling.
Thus, an AI enabled Dell laptop doesn’t make sense to some consumers. Their child needs a laptop to do homework. What’s with the inclusion of AI. AI is available everywhere. Why double up on AI? Dell sidesteps the issue by focusing on its computers as computers.
Several observations are warranted:
- The AI shift at Dell is considered “news” in Russia. In the US, I am not sure how many people will get the Dell message. Maybe someone on TikTok or Reels will cover the Dell story?
- The Google- and Microsoft-type companies don’t care about Dell. These outfits are inventing the future. The firms are spending billions and now dumping staff to help pay for the vision of their visionaries. If it doesn’t work, these people will join the lawyers caught using made up information working as servers at the local Rooster’s chicken joint.
- The idea that “if they think it, the ‘it’ will become reality is fueling the AI boom. Stoked on the sci-fi novels consumed when high school students, the wizards in the AI game are convinced they can deliver smart software. Conviction is useful. However, a failure to deliver will be interesting to watch… from a distance.
Net net: Score one for Dell. No points for Google or Microsoft. Consumers are in the negative column. They are confused and there is one thing that the US economy abhors is a bewildered person. Believe or be gone.
Stephen E Arnold, January 12, 2026
Telegram Notes: About That Money. Nyet.
January 8, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I spotted a news item that surprised me. The GOAT (the greatest of all time in Russian technology) encountered a small banking problem. The automatic teller machine would not work. “$500M in Telegram Bonds Frozen in Russia Due to Sanctions – FT” reports or recycles a Financial Times’ news article that allegedly asserted as true:
Around $500 million worth of bonds issued by the Telegram messaging app in Russia have been frozen due to Western sanctions … The freeze highlights Telegram’s continued exposure to Russian capital despite efforts by its billionaire founder Pavel Durov to distance himself from Moscow…. Telegram has issued a series of bond offerings in recent years including a $1.7 billion issuance in May 2025.
Dead money machines? What’s going on? Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
Why does the GOAT need some cash? The Moscow Times says:
Telegram said revenue in the first half of 2025 rose more than 65% year-on-year to $870 million. The company nevertheless posted a net loss of $222 million, compared with a net profit of $334 million in the same period a year earlier
That doesn’t answer the question, does it? How about this statement:
the loss was driven by a write-down of Telegram’s holdings of the Toncoin cryptocurrency, whose price fell amid a broader downturn in the crypto market in 2025.
Let’s think about this. The TONcoin is not controlled by Pavel Durov. He gave the TON blockchain technology, the TONcoin, and some other bits and pieces to the TON Foundation. Why? After a spat with the US Securities & Exchange Commission, Mr. Durov and his “core” team cooked up the idea of a foundation special purpose vehicle. The cause of the shortfall is simple. The TONcoin upon which some interesting financial “plays” are dependent has lost some of its value. The alleged currency of the future free of the constraints of the cursed US dollar has fallen in value. I think the TONcoin is down about 65 percent since January 5, 2025 if the data from TradingView.com are semi accurate.
This “drop” has troubled the usually halcyon waters of the pond from which the GOAT sips; for example:
- The TON Strategy Company is trying to shake free from two SEC notes about a failure to hold required shareholder votes. A NASDAQ listed outfit run by Manny Stotz has to follow those pesky US rule
- The AlphaTON Capital outfit is trying to figure out how to recover after a bit of fancy dancing related to an alleged tie up with the Anduril outfit. In contrast to AlphaTON, Anduril is doing quite well and said, “Nope, no AlphaTON deal.” In order to look like a great NASDAQ listed company, AlphaTON bid farewell to an interesting person who was the money manager for AlphaTON. Well, so much for Andrei Grachev of DWF MaaS, DWF Labs, and a former board member of the Russian RACIB outfit.
- And obviously the problem of more revenue and a notable $222 million loss.
Mr. Durov may mash the buttons on Russia’s National Settlement Depository (NSD). Those actions may not be subject to the GOAT’s considerable power. What’s the fix? Perhaps Mr. Durov will have to step in and use his own cash to cover the pitfalls on Telegram’s push to become the global financial system? Do goats bleat?
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2026
OpenCode: A Little Helper for Good Guys and the Obverse
January 7, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I gave a couple of talks late in 2025 to cyber investigators in one of those square, fly-over states. In those talks, I showed code examples. Some were crafted by the people on my team and a complete Telegram app was coded by Anthropic Claude. Yeah, the smart software needed some help. Telegram bots are not something lots of Claude users whip up. But the system worked.
Here I am reading the OpenCode “privacy” document. I look pretty good when Venice.ai converts me from an old dinobaby to a young dinobaby.
One of my team called my attention to OpenCode. The idea is to make it easier than ever for a good actor or a not-so-good actor to create scripts, bots, and functional applications. OpenCode is an example of what I call “meta ai”; that is, the OpenCode service is a wrapper that allows a lot of annoying large language model operations, library chasing, and just finding stuff to take place under one roof. If you are a more hip cat than I, you would probably say that OpenCode is a milestone on the way to a point and click dashboard to make writing goodware and malware easier and more reliable than previously possible. I will let you ponder the implications of this statement.
According to the organization:
OpenCode is an open source agent that helps you write and run code with any AI model. It’s available as a terminal-based interface, desktop app, or IDE extension.
The sounds as if an AI contributed to the sentences. But that’s to be expected. The organization is OpenCode.ai.
The organization says:
OpenCode comes with a set of free models that you can use without creating an account. Aside from these, you can use any of the popular coding models by creating a Zen account. While we encourage users to use Zen*, OpenCode also works with all popular providers such as OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI etc. You can even connect your local models. [*Zen gives you access to a handpicked set of AI models that OpenCode has tested and benchmarked specifically for coding agents. No need to worry about inconsistent performance and quality across providers, use validated models that work.]
The system is open source. As of January 7, 2026, it is free to use. You will have to cough up money if you want to use OpenCode with the for fee smart software.
The OpenCode Web site makes a big deal about privacy. You can find about 10,000 words explaining what the developers of the system bundle in their “privacy” write up. It is a good idea to read the statement. It includes some interesting features; for example:
- Accepting the privacy agreement allows home buyers to be data recipients
- Fuzzy and possibly contradictory statements about user data sales
- Continued use of the service means you accept terms which can be changed.
I won’t speculate on how a useful service needs a long and somewhat challenging “privacy” statement. But this is 2026. I still can’t figure out why home buyers are involved, but I am a clueless dinobaby. Remember there are good actors and the other type too.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2026
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