Automating to Reduce Staff: Money Talks, Employees? Yeah, Well
July 24, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
Are you a developer who oversees a project? Are you one of those professionals who toiled to understand the true beauty of a PERT chart invented by a Type A blue-chip consulting firm I have heard? If so, you may sport these initials on your business card: PMP, PMI-RMP, PRINCE2, etc. I would suggest that Google is taking steps to eliminate your role. How do I know the death knell tolls for thee? Easy. I read “Google Brings AI Agent Platform Project Oscar Open Source.” The write up doesn’t come out and say, “Dev managers or project managers, find your future elsewhere, but the intent bubbles beneath the surface of the Google speak.
A 35-year-old executive gets the good news. As a project manager, he can now seek another information-mediating job at an indendent plumbing company, a local dry cleaner, or the outfit that repurposes basketball courts to pickleball courts. So many futures to find. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. That’s a pretty good Grim Reaper. The former PMP looks snappy too. Well, good enough.
The “Google Brings AI Agent Platform Project Oscar Open Source” real “news” story says:
Google has announced Project Oscar, a way for open-source development teams to use and build agents to manage software programs.
Say hi, to Project Oscar. The smart software is new, so expect it to morph, be killed, resurrected, and live a long fruitful life.
The write up continues:
“I truly believe that AI has the potential to transform the entire software development lifecycle in many positive ways,” Karthik Padmanabhan, lead Developer Relations at Google India, said in a blog post. “[We’re] sharing a sneak peek into AI agents we’re working on as part of our quest to make AI even more helpful and accessible to all developers.” Through Project Oscar, developers can create AI agents that function throughout the software development lifecycle. These agents can range from a developer agent to a planning agent, runtime agent, or support agent. The agents can interact through natural language, so users can give instructions to them without needing to redo any code.
Helpful? Seems like it. Will smart software reduce costs and allow for more “efficiency methods” to be implemented? Yep.
The article includes a statement from a Googler; to wit:
“We wondered if AI agents could help, not by writing code which we truly enjoy, but by reducing disruptions and toil,” Balahan said in a video released by Google. Go uses an AI agent developed through Project Oscar that takes issue reports and “enriches issue reports by reviewing this data or invoking development tools to surface the information that matters most.” The agent also interacts with whoever reports an issue to clarify anything, even if human maintainers are not online.
Where is Google headed with this “manage” software programs? A partial answer may be deduced from this write up from Linklemon. Its commercial “We Automate Workflows for Small to Medium (sic) Businesses.” The image below explains the business case clearly:
Those purple numbers are generated by chopping staff and making an existing system cheaper to operate. Translation: Find your future elsewhere, please.”
My hunch is that if the automation in Google India is “good enough,” the service will be tested in the US. Once that happens, Microsoft and other enterprise vendors will jump on the me-too express.
What’s that mean? Oh, heck, I don’t want to rerun that tired old “find your future elsewhere line,” but I will: Many professionals who intermediate information will here, “Great news, you now have the opportunity to find your future elsewhere.” Lucky folks, right, Google.
Stephen E Arnold, July 24, 2024
Modern Life: Advertising Is the Future
July 23, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
What’s the future? I think most science fiction authors missed the memo from the future. Forget rocket ships, aliens, and light sabers. Think advertising. How do I know that ads will be the dominant feature of messaging? I read “French AI Startup Launches First LLM Built Exclusively for Advertising Copy.”
Advertising professionals consult the book about trust and ethical behavior. Both are baffled at the concepts. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. You are an expert in trust and ethical behavior, right?
Yep, advertising arrives with smart manipulation, psycho-metric manipulative content, and shaped data. The write up explains:
French startup AdCreative.ai has launched a new large language model build exclusively for advertising. Named AdLLM Spark, the system was built to craft ad text with high conversion rates on every major advertising platform. AdCreative.ai said the LLM combines two unique features: instant text generation and accurate performance prediction.
Let’s assume those French wizards have successfully applied probabilistic text generation to probabilistic behavior manipulation. Every message can be crafted by smart software to work. If an output does not work, just fiddle around until you hit the highest performing payload for the doom scrolling human.
The first part of the evolution of smart software pivoted on the training data. Forget that privacy hogging, copyright ignoring approach. Advertising copy is there to be used and recycled. The write up says:
The training data encompasses every text generated by AdCreative.ai for its 2,000,000 users. It includes information from eight leading advertising platforms: Facebook, Instagram, Google, YouTube, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Pinterest, and TikTok.
The second component involved tuning the large language model. I love the way “manipulation” and “move to action” becomes a dataset and metrics. If it works, that method will emerge from the analytic process. Do that, and clicks will result. Well, that’s the theory. But it is much easier to understand than making smart software ethical.
Does the system work? The write up offers this “proof”:
AdCreative.ai tested the impact on 10,000 real ad texts. According to the company, the system predicted their performance with over 90% accuracy. That’s 60% higher than ChatGPT and at least 70% higher than every other model on the market, the startup said.
Just for fun, let’s assume that the AdCreative system works and performs as “advertised.”
- No message can be accepted at face value. Every message from any source can be weaponized.
- Content about any topic — and I mean any — must be viewed as shaped and massaged to produce a result. Did you really want to buy that Chiquita banana?
- The implications of automating this type of content production begs for a system to identify something hot on a TikTok-type service, extract the words and phrases, and match those words with a bit of semantic expansion to what someone wants to pitch, promote, occur, and what not. The magic is that the volume of such messages is limited only by one’s machine resources.
Net net: The future of smart software is not solving problems for lawyers or finding a fix for Aunt Milli’s fatigue. The future is advertising, and AdCreative.ai is making the future more clear. Great work!
Stephen E Arnold, July 17, 2024
Bots Have Invaded The World…On The Internet
July 23, 2024
Robots…er…bots have taken over the world…at least the Internet…parts of it. The news from Techspot is shocking but when you think about it really isn’t: “Almost Half Of All Web Traffics Is Bots, And They Are Mostly Malicious In Nature.” Akamai is the largest cloud computing platform in the world. It recently released a report that 42% of web traffic is from bots and 65% of them are malicious.
Akamai said that most of the bots are scrapper bots designed to gather data. Scrapper bots collect content from Web sites. Some of them are used to form AI data sets while others are designed to steal information to be used in hacker, scams, and other bad acts. Commerce Web sites are negatively affected the most, because scrapper bots steal photos, prices, descriptions, and more. Bad actors then make fake Web sites imitating the real McCoy. They make money by from ads by ranking on Google and stealing traffic.
Bots are nasty little buggers even the most benign:
“Even non-malicious scraping bots can degrade a website’s performance, impact search engine metrics, and increase computing and hosting costs.
Companies now face increasingly sophisticated bots that use AI algorithms, headless browser technology, and other advanced solutions. These new threats require novel, more complex mitigation approaches beyond traditional methods. A robust firewall is now only the beginning of the numerous security measures needed by website owners today.”
Akamai should have dedicated part of their study to investigate the Dark Web. How many bots or law enforcement officials are visiting that shrinking part of the Net?
Whitney Grace, July 23, 2024
The Logic of Good Enough: GitHub
July 22, 2024
What happens when a big company takes over a good thing? Here is one possible answer. Microsoft acquired GitHub in 2018. Now, “‘GitHub’ Is Starting to Feel Like Legacy Software,” according Misty De Méo at The Future Is Now blog. And by “legacy,” she means outdated and malfunctioning. Paint us unsurprised.
De Méo describes being unable to use a GitHub feature she had relied on for years: the blame tool. She shares her process of tracking down what went wrong. Development geeks can see the write-up for details. The point is, in De Méo’s expert opinion, those now in charge made a glaring mistake. She observes:
“The corporate branding, the new ‘AI-powered developer platform’ slogan, makes it clear that what I think of as ‘GitHub’—the traditional website, what are to me the core features—simply isn’t Microsoft’s priority at this point in time. I know many talented people at GitHub who care, but the company’s priorities just don’t seem to value what I value about the service. This isn’t an anti-AI statement so much as a recognition that the tool I still need to use every day is past its prime. Copilot isn’t navigating the website for me, replacing my need to the website as it exists today. I’ve had tools hit this phase of decline and turn it around, but I’m not optimistic. It’s still plenty usable now, and probably will be for some years to come, but I’ll want to know what other options I have now rather than when things get worse than this.”
The post concludes with a plea for fellow developers to send De Méo any suggestions for GitHub alternatives and, in particular, a good local blame tool. Let us just hope any viable alternatives do not also get snapped up by big tech firms anytime soon.
Cynthia Murrell, July 23, 2024
Soft Fraud: A Helpful List
July 18, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
For several years I have included references to what I call “soft fraud” in my lectures. I like to toss in examples of outfits getting cute with fine print, expiration dates for offers, and weasels on eBay asserting that the US Post Office issued a bad tracking number. I capture the example, jot down the vendor’s name, and tuck it away. The term “soft fraud” refers to an intentional practice designed to extract money or an action from a user. The user typically assumes that the soft fraud pitch is legitimate. It’s not. Soft fraud is a bit like a con man selling an honest card game in Manhattan. Nope. Crooked by design (the phrase is a variant of the publisher of this listing).
I spotted a write up called “Catalog of Dark Patterns.” The Hall of Shame.design online site has done a good job of providing a handy taxonomy of soft fraud tactics. Here are four of the categories:
- Privacy Zuckering
- Roach motel
- Trick questions
The Dark Patterns write up then populates each of the 10 categories with some examples. If the examples presented are not sufficient, a “View All” button allows the person interested in soft fraud to obtain a bit more color.
Here’s an example of the category “Confirmshaming”:
My suggestion to the Hall of Shame team is to move away from “too cute” categories. The naming might be clever, person searching for examples of soft fraud might not know the phrase “Privacy Zuckering.” Yes, I know that I have been guilty of writing phrases like the “zucked up,” but I am not creating a useful list. I am a dinobaby having a great time at 80 years of age.
Net net: Anyone interested in soft fraud will find this a useful compilation. Hopefully practitioners of soft fraud will be shunned. Maybe a couple of these outfits would be subject to some regulatory scrutiny? Hopefully.
Stephen E Arnold, July 18, 2024
AI and Human Workers: AI Wins for Now
July 17, 2024
When it come to US employment news, an Australian paper does not beat around the bush. Citing a recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, The Sydney Morning Herald reports, “Nearly Half of US Firms Using AI Say Goal Is to Cut Staffing Costs.” Gee, what a surprise. Writer Brian Delk summarizes:
“In a survey conducted earlier this month of firms using AI since early 2022 in the Richmond, Virginia region, 45 per cent said they were automating tasks to reduce staffing and labor costs. The survey also found that almost all the firms are using automation technology to increase output. ‘CFOs say their firms are tapping AI to automate a host of tasks, from paying suppliers, invoicing, procurement, financial reporting, and optimizing facilities utilization,’ said Duke finance professor John Graham, academic director of the survey of 450 financial executives. ‘This is on top of companies using ChatGPT to generate creative ideas and to draft job descriptions, contracts, marketing plans, and press releases.’ The report stated that over the past year almost 60 per cent of companies surveyed have ‘have implemented software, equipment, or technology to automate tasks previously completed by employees.’ ‘These companies indicate that they use automation to increase product quality (58 per cent of firms), increase output (49 per cent), reduce labor costs (47 per cent), and substitute for workers (33 per cent).’”
Delk points to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for a bit of comfort. Its data shows the impact of AI on employment has been minimal at the nearly 40% of Texas firms using AI. For now. Also, the Richmond survey found manufacturing firms to be more likely (53%) to adopt AI than those in the service sector (43%). One wonders whether that will even out once the uncanny valley has been traversed. Either way, it seems businesses are getting more comfortable replacing human workers with cheaper, more subservient AI tools.
Cynthia Murrell, July 17, 2024
OpenAI Says, Let Us Be Open: Intentionally or Unintentionally
July 12, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
I read a troubling but not too surprising write up titled “ChatGPT Just (Accidentally) Shared All of Its Secret Rules – Here’s What We Learned.” I have somewhat skeptical thoughts about how big time organizations implement, manage, maintain, and enhance their security. It is more fun and interesting to think about moving fast, breaking things, and dominating a market sector. In my years of dinobaby experience, I can report this about senior management thinking about cyber security:
- Hire a big name and let that person figure it out
- Ask the bean counter and hear something like this, “Security is expensive, and its monetary needs are unpredictable and usually quite large and just go up over time. Let me know what you want to do.”
- The head of information technology will say, “I need to license a different third party tool and get those cyber experts from [fill in your own preferred consulting firm’s name].”
- How much is the ransom compared to the costs of dealing with our “security issue”? Just do what costs less.
- I want to talk right now about the meeting next week with our principal investor. Let’s move on. Now!
The captain of the good ship OpenAI asks a good question. Unfortunately the situation seems to be somewhat problematic. Thanks, MSFT Copilot.
The write up reports:
ChatGPT has inadvertently revealed a set of internal instructions embedded by OpenAI to a user who shared what they discovered on Reddit. OpenAI has since shut down the unlikely access to its chatbot’s orders, but the revelation has sparked more discussion about the intricacies and safety measures embedded in the AI’s design. Reddit user F0XMaster explained that they had greeted ChatGPT with a casual "Hi," and, in response, the chatbot divulged a complete set of system instructions to guide the chatbot and keep it within predefined safety and ethical boundaries under many use cases.
Another twist to the OpenAI governance approach is described in “Why Did OpenAI Keep Its 2023 Hack Secret from the Public?” That is a good question, particularly for an outfit which is all about “open.” This article gives the wonkiness of OpenAI’s technology some dimensionality. The article reports:
Last April [2023], a hacker stole private details about the design of Open AI’s technologies, after gaining access to the company’s internal messaging systems. …
OpenAI executives revealed the incident to staffers in a company all-hands meeting the same month. However, since OpenAI did not consider it to be a threat to national security, they decided to keep the attack private and failed to inform law enforcement agencies like the FBI.
What’s more, with OpenAI’s commitment to security already being called into question this year after flaws were found in its GPT store plugins, it’s likely the AI powerhouse is doing what it can to evade further public scrutiny.
What these two separate items suggest to me is that the decider(s) at OpenAI decide to push out products which are not carefully vetted. Second, when something surfaces OpenAI does not find amusing, the company appears to zip its sophisticated lips. (That’s the opposite of divulging “secrets” via ChatGPT, isn’t it?)
Is the company OpenAI well managed? I certainly do not know from first hand experience. However, it seems to be that the company is a trifle erratic. Imagine the Chief Technical Officer did not allegedly know a few months ago if YouTube data were used to train ChatGPT. Then the breach and keeping quiet about it. And, finally, the OpenAI customer who stumbled upon company secrets in a ChatGPT output.
Please, make your own decision about the company. Personally I find it amusing to identify yet another outfit operating with the same thrilling erraticism as other Sillycon Valley meteors. And security? Hey, let’s talk about August vacations.
Stephen E Arnold, July 12, 2024
Big Plays or Little Plays: The Key to AI Revenue
July 11, 2024
I keep thinking about the billions and trillions of dollars required to create a big AI win. A couple of snappy investment banks have edged toward the idea that AI might not pay off with tsunamis of money right away. The fix is to become brokers for GPU cycles or “humble brags” about how more money is needed to fund the next big thing in what venture people want to be the next big thing. Yep, AI: A couple of winners and the rest are losers at least in terms of the pay off scale whacked around like a hapless squash ball at the New York Athletic Club.
However, a radical idea struck me as I read a report from the news service that oozes “trust.” The Reuters’ story is “China Leads the World in Adoption of Generative AI Survey Shows.” Do I trust surveys? Not really. Do I trust trusted “real” news outfits? Nope, not really. But the write up includes an interesting statement, and the report sparked what is for me a new idea.
First, here’s the passage I circled:
“Enterprise adoption of generative AI in China is expected to accelerate as a price war is likely to further reduce the cost of large language model services for businesses. The SAS report also said China led the world in continuous automated monitoring (CAM), which it described as “a controversial but widely-deployed use case for generative AI tools”.”
I interpreted this to mean:
- Small and big uses of AI in somewhat mundane tasks
- Lots of small uses with more big outfits getting with the AI program
- AI allows nifty monitoring which is going to catch the attention of some Chinese government officials who may be able to repurpose these focused applications of smart software
With models available as open source like the nifty Meta Facebook Zuck concoction, big technology is available. Furthermore the idea of applying smart software to small problems makes sense. The approach avoids the Godzilla lumbering associated with some outfits and, second, fast iteration with fast failures provides useful factoids for other developers.
The “real” news report does not provide numbers or much in the way of analysis. I think the idea of small-scale applications does not make sense when one is eating fancy food at a smart software briefing in mid town Manhattan. Small is not going to generate that. big wave of money from AI. The money is needed to raise more money.
My thought is that the Chinese approach has value because it is surfing on open source and some proprietary information known to Chinese companies solving or trying to solve a narrow problem. Also, the crazy pace of try-fail, try-fail enables acceleration of what works. Failures translate to lessons about what lousy path to follow.
Therefore, my reaction to the “real” news about the survey is that China may be in a position to do better, faster, and cheaper AI applications that the Godzilla outfits. The chase for big money exists, but in the US without big money, who cares? In China, big money may not be as large as the pile of cash some VCs and entrepreneurs argue is absolutely necessary.
So what? The “let many flowers bloom” idea applies to AI. That’s a strength possibly neither appreciated or desired by the US AI crowd. Combined with China’s patent surge, my new thought translates to “oh, oh.”
Stephen E Arnold, July 11, 2024
Oxygen: Keep the Bait Alive for AI Revenue
July 10, 2024
Andreessen Horowitz published “Who Owns the Generative AI Platform?” in January 2023. The rah-rah appeared almost at the same time as the Microsoft OpenAI deal marketing coup. In that essay, the venture firm and publishing firm stated this about AI:
…there is enough early data to suggest massive transformation is taking place. What we don’t know, and what has now become the critical question, is: Where in this market will value accrue?
Now a partial answer is emerging.
The Information, an online information service with a paywall revealed “Andreessen Horowitz Is Building a Stash of More Than 20,000 GPUs to Win AI Deals.” That report asserts:
The firm has secured thousands of AI chips, including Nvidia H100 graphics processing units, and is renting them to portfolio companies, according to a person who has discussed the initiative with the firm’s partners…. Andreessen Horowitz has told startup founders the initiative is called “oxygen.”
The initiative reflects what might be a way to hook promising AI outfits and plop them into the firm’s large foldable floating fish basket for live caught gill-bearing vertebrate animals, sometimes called chum.
This factoid emerges shortly after a big Silicon Valley venture outfit raved about the oodles of opportunity AI represents. Plus reports about Blue Chip consulting firms’ through-the-roof AI consulting has encouraged a couple of the big outfits to offer AI services. In addition to opining and advising, the consulting firms are moving aggressively into the AI implementing and operating business.
The morphing of a venture firm into a broker of GPU cycles complements the thinking-for-money firms’ shifting gears to a more hands-on approach.
There are several implications from my point of view:
- The fastest way to make money from the AI frenzy is to charge people so they can “do” AI
- Without a clear revenue stream of sufficient magnitude to foot the bill for the rather hefty costs of “doing” AI with a chance of making cash, selling blue jeans to the miners makes sense. But changing business tactics can add an element of spice to an unfamiliar restaurant’s special of the day
- The move from passive (thinking and waiting) to a more active (doing and charging for hardware and services) brings a different management challenge to the companies making the shift.
These factors suggest that the best way to cash in on AI is to provide what Andreessen Horowitz calls oxygen. It is a clear indication that the AI fish will die without some aggressive intervention.
I am a dinobaby, sitting in my rocker on the porch of the rest home watching the youngsters scramble to make money from what was supposed to be a sure-fire winner. What we know from watching those lemonade stand operators is that success is often difficult to achieve. The grade school kids setting up shop in a subdivision where heat and fatigue take their toll give up and go inside where the air is cool and TikTok waits.
Net net: The Andreessen Horowitz revelation is one more indication that the costs of AI and the difficulty of generating sufficient revenue is starting to hit home. Therefore, advisors’ thoughts seems to be turning to actions designed to produce cash, magnetism, and success. Will the efforts produce the big payoffs? I wonder if these tactical plays are brilliant moves or another neighborhood lemonade stand?
Stephen E Arnold, July 10, 2024
Microsoft Security: Big and Money Explain Some Things
July 10, 2024
I am heading out for a couple of day. I spotted this story in my newsfeed: “The President Ordered a Board to Probe a Massive Russian Cyberattack. It Never Did.” The main point of the write up, in my opinion, is captured in this statement:
The tech company’s failure to act reflected a corporate culture that prioritized profit over security and left the U.S. government vulnerable, a whistleblower said.
But there is another issue in the write up. I think it is:
The president issued an executive order establishing the Cyber Safety Review Board in May 2021 and ordered it to start work by reviewing the SolarWinds attack. But for reasons that experts say remain unclear, that never happened.
The one-two punch may help explain why some in other countries do not trust Microsoft, the US government, and the cultural forces in the US of A.
Let’s think about these three issues briefly.
A group of tomorrow’s leaders responding to their teacher’s request to pay attention and do what she is asking. One student expresses the group’s viewpoint. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. How the Recall today? What about those iPhones Mr. Ballmer disdained?
First, large technology companies use the word “trust”; for example, Microsoft apparently does not trust Android devices. On the other hand, China does not have trust in some Microsoft products. Can one trust Microsoft’s security methods? For some, trust has become a bit like artificial intelligence. The words do not mean much of anything.
Second, Microsoft, like other big outfits needs big money. The easiest way to free up money is to not spend it. One can talk about investing in security and making security Job One. The reality is that talk is cheap. Cutting corners seems to be a popular concept in some corporate circles. One recent example is Boeing dodging trials with a deal. Why? Money maybe?
Third, the committee charged with looking into SolarWinds did not. For a couple of years after the breach became known, my SolarWinds’ misstep analysis was popular among some cyber investigators. I was one of the few people reviewing the “misstep.”
Okay, enough thinking.
The SolarWinds’ matter, the push for money and more money, and the failure of a committee to do what it was asked to do explicitly three times suggests:
- A need for enforcement with teeth and consequences is warranted
- Tougher procurement policies are necessary with parallel restrictions on lobbying which one of my clients called “the real business of Washington”
- Ostracism of those who do not follow requests from the White House or designated senior officials.
Enough of this high-vulnerability decision making. The problem is that as I have witnessed in my work in Washington for decades, the system births, abets, and provides the environment for doing what is often the “wrong” thing.
There you go.
Stephen E Arnold, July 10, 2024
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