FOGINT: Telegram Sends Message: We Are Coming to America!
January 15, 2025
A short blog post from the FOGINT team.
In 1988, Eddie Murphy starred in the film Coming to America. The film features this bit of dialogue:
- Lisa McDowell: So why did you come here?
- Prince Akeem: To find something special.
- Lisa McDowell: It’s a long way to travel.
- Prince Akeem: No journey is too great when one finds what he seeks.
What Telegram and its wing man, the Open Network Foundation, seek is a new market. Telegram, since the detainment of Pavel Durov (Telegram’s founder) has been pushing crypto. Pushing hard. Now the organization with more than 900 million users is coming to America. “No journey is too great when one finds what he seeks.” And what Pavel Durov seeks is a market for online gambling linked to crypto currency. Online gambling, link ups with organizations mostly unknown in the US, and a messaging system with a mind-boggling range of features.
Pavel Durov is coming to the New World, a land of opportunity for crypto and certain interests unlikely to be aligned with those of the United States and its allies. Thanks, creative You.com. Good enough.
Bloomberg published “Telegram Linked TON Blockchain to Expand in US As Trump Courts Crypto.” Similar stores have appeared in Cryptobriefing, Cryptotimes, and Cryptonews, among others. For example, “Telegram-Linked TON Eyeing U.S. Expansion” reports:
The TON Foundation, associated with Telegram Messenger, is planning to expand into the U.S. market, anticipating more favorable regulatory conditions under President-elect Donald Trump. As part of its U.S. expansion strategy, the foundation has appointed Manuel Stotz, founder of Kingsway Capital Partners, as its new president.
The film was a comedy. Telegram’s return to the United States is an important step. Telegram is not just a messenger service used by warfighters, purveyors of contraband, and goofy pitches for get rich schemes originating in Myanmar. Telegram is different from Signal, Threema, and WhatsApp. The decentralized organized organization has a social media component, a recruitment program, a venture fund, some smart software, and a conceptual commitment to ideas somewhat different from those in the US and some countries in Western Europe, including France where Pavel Durov is confined to the country as a legal proceeding involving him moves forward through the French judicial system.
As Prince Akeem said, “No journey is too great when one finds what he seeks.” Mr. Durov has found what he seeks. Telegram in America.
Stephen E Arnold, January 15, 2025
FOGINT: Are Secure Communications Possible? DekkoSecure Says, “Yes
January 15, 2025
Prepared by the FOGINT research team.
For a project in 2023 and 2024, the FOGINT team worked on secure communications. We discovered that most of the alleged end-to-end messaging systems were not secure. The firm commissioning our report seemed surprised when we identified common points of vulnerability in existing E2EE systems. Furthermore, the FOGINT team itself was impressed with a handful of organizations resolving secure messaging issues in well-engineered ways. Furthermore, we noted that some of the most significant secure communication tools were drowned out by the consumer-centric solutions available. The idea that by making certain software available as open source was proof that these tools were indeed secure.
A telling example is the perception of Telegram Messenger as an end-to-end solution. It is not. And what about Zoom, a service which exploded during the Covid panic. Presumably hiring a “security guru” solved its problems of Zoom bombing and delivered “total security” addressed Zoom’s issues. That high profile hiring delivered PR, not security.
FOGINT wants to provide some information about a secure communications service that does provide a secure way to share content in image, audio, video, or text form. The solution was developed by Dmytro Bablinyuk and Jay Haybatov. In 2015 DekkoSecure began marketing its system. In the last decade DekkoSecure has emerged as a reliable provider of secure communication and collaboration tools, with a specialization in encrypted solutions tailored for the law enforcement, legal, healthcare, defense and government sectors. Their comprehensive platform seamlessly integrates four main product lines, each designed to address critical security and usability needs.
The firm’s Digital Signature Software offers robust features such as audit trails for document tracking, mobile signature support, customizable templates, automated reminder systems, and strong authentication protocols. This software ensures that document signing processes are both secure and efficient, meeting the stringent requirements of various industries. Key features of the solution include:
- Secure File Sharing is another cornerstone of DekkoSecure’s platform, providing end-to-end encryption for files both in transit and at rest. It supports real-time collaboration, version control, integrated workflow management, and a user-friendly drag-and-drop interface. These features enable secure and efficient file management and collaboration across teams.
- The company’s Cloud Storage Service boasts granular access controls, cross-device synchronization, compliant archiving and retention, and version history management. This service ensures that sensitive data is stored securely, accessible when needed, and meets regulatory compliance standards. The firm’s Zero Trust/Zero Knowledge encryption is new to the U.S. law enforcement market and provides clients comfort that only authorized and authenticated users can access files, which includes DekkoSecure not having access to the files.
- Security Software — The company incorporates
Key competitive advantages of DekkoSecure include its all-in-one platform integration, user-friendly interface, strong security focus, and a comprehensive feature set. These strengths make it an attractive option for various target markets, including small to medium-sized businesses, large enterprises, government agencies, and remote workforces.
However, DekkoSecure faces certain challenges. The system is tailored to the needs of law enforcement, courts, and healthcare. The company employs a data usage pricing structure and does not limit the number of users in an organization. Also, although the system is easy-to-use, the firm’s engineers work with clients to ensure that the platform has the processes, look and feel they require prior to implementation. And, looking ahead to 2025, DekkoSecure will benefit from the US FBI’s suggestion that encrypted communications become the standard for organizations and individuals.
Net net: DekkoSecure’s focus on encryption and user experience, combined with its broad feature set, makes it particularly appealing to organizations handling sensitive data. Despite the platform’s complexity posing challenges for some users, its integrated approach to secure communication and collaboration offers significant value for businesses seeking to consolidate their security tools.
Stephen E Arnold, January 15, 2025
FOGINT: A Shocking Assertion about Israeli Intelligence Before the October 2023 Attack
January 13, 2025
A post from the FOGINT team.
One of my colleagues alerted me to a new story in the Jerusalem Post. The article is “IDF Could’ve Stopped Oct. 7 by Monitoring Hamas’s Telegram, Researchers Say.” The title makes clear that this is an “after action” analysis. Everyone knows that thinking about the whys and wherefores right of bang is a safe exercise. Nevertheless, let’s look at what the Jerusalem Post reported on January 5, 2025.
First, this statement:
“These [Telegram] channels were neither secret nor hidden — they were open and accessible to all.” — Lt.-Col. (res.) Jonathan Dahoah-Halevi
Telegram puts some “silent” barriers to prevent some third parties from downloading in real time active discussions. I know of one Israeli cyber security firm which asserts that it monitors Telegram public channel messages. (I won’t ask the question, “Why didn’t analysts at that firm raise an alarm or contact their former Israeli government employers with that information? Those are questions I will sidestep.)
Second, the article reports:
These channels [public Telegram channels like Military Tactics] were neither secret nor hidden — they were open and accessible to all. The “Military Tactics” Telegram channel even shared professional content showcasing the organization’s level of preparedness and operational capabilities. During the critical hours before the attack, beginning at 12:20 a.m. on October 7, the channel posted a series of detailed messages that should have raised red flags, including: “We say to the Zionist enemy, [the operation] coming your way has never been experienced by anyone,” “There are many, many, many surprises,” “We swear by Allah, we will humiliate you and utterly destroy you,” and “The pure rifles are loaded, and your heads are the target.”
Third, I circled this statement:
However, Dahoah-Halevi further asserted that the warning signs appeared much earlier. As early as September 17, a message from the Al-Qassam Brigades claimed, “Expect a major security event soon.” The following day, on September 18, a direct threat was issued to residents of the Gaza border communities, stating, “Before it’s too late, flee and leave […] nothing will help you except escape.”
The attack did occur, and it had terrible consequences for the young people killed and wounded and for the Israeli cyber security industry, which some believe is one of the best in the world. The attack suggested that marketing rather than effectiveness created an impression at odds with reality.
What are the lessons one can take from this report? The FOGINT team will leave that to you to answer.
Stephen E Arnold, January 13, 2025
FOGINT: The French Method for Communicating with Telegram Works
January 8, 2025
A post from the FOGINT team.
Direct action by French authorities has had a visible impact on Telegram. The FOGINT team noted a report in Arab News which provides some color to this observation. “Surge in Telegram User Data Passed to French Authorities.” The article reports:
Messaging service Telegram passed vastly more data on its users to French authorities in the second half of 2024 following founder Pavel Durov’s arrest in Paris, figures published by the platform showed.
The company said it handed over IP addresses or telephone numbers that Paris asked for in 210 cases in July-September and 673 in October-December.
Prior to the action by French authorities, Telegram had the reputation of ignoring legitimate requests from government authorities in the EU and elsewhere. The company explained that it stood for free speech. However, in April 2024, Telegram blocked Ukrainian government messages from Ukraine to Telegram users in Russia.
According to the article, Telegram explained:
He [Mr. Durov] and his supporters have claimed that most French and European authorities’ requests for user data were simply not being sent to the right department at the company and therefore received no response.
Several observations from the FOGINT team are warranted:
- Direct action by French authorities has been productive. Consequently Telegram has responded.
- Mr. Durov remains under observation by the French government with his legal proceedings moving at the speed of the French bureaucracy; that is, in a methodical manner.
- Mr. Durov’s releasing of user names associated with active investigations has pushed Telegram into a course change for 2025. The company is now emphasizing its crypto currency features, functions, and services.
Consequently Telegram’s technical platform and its ability to take advantage of growing interest in online gambling provide a new challenge to investigators. Its flurry of deals with crypto centric organizations in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia pose a new challenge to investigators. Tracking financial transactions facilitated by Telegram’s global decentralized and distributed design becomes more costly and time intensive. Telegram’s smart automation allows transactions to move from crypto currency wallet to crypto currency wallet under different identities quickly. The likely use case for Telegram’s crypto services may be money laundering.
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
FOGINT: Russia Reveals How Important Telegram Is to Its Propaganda Program
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
Telegram that messaging service is important to Russia’s European propaganda efforts. Russia suggested that Telegram block messages from the Ukrainian government to Russians using Telegram April 2024. The filtering was big news in Ukraine; in the US, the Telegram action was lost in the cacophony of 24×7 digital information flows. This means that few Americans knew or cared about this Telegram acquiescence to the Kremlin.
A number of news outlets have reported that Telegram is more important to the Putin regime than many realized. Jurist.org reported in “Russia Threatens Retaliation Over Blocking of State Media Telegram Channels Across EU.” The write up states:
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that users attempting to access the Telegram channels of Russian state broadcasters, including RIA Novosti, Izvestia and RT, are being notified of limited access in the EU. Russia characterized the blockage as “political censorship” in violation of international obligations on free information access. Moscow warned that “specialized international organizations should duly evaluate these actions” and demanded a response from UN human rights mechanisms and UNESCO leadership.
The Jurist article adds:
This latest dispute over media access follows a pattern of escalating restrictions between Russia and the EU since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war prompted the EU to impose massive and unprecedented sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on state media outlets accused of spreading propaganda. In June 2024, Russia blocked access to 81 European media websites from 25 European countries, affecting outlets like France’s Agence France-Presse (AFP), Le Monde, and Liberation. This action came after the EU banned four Russian state media outlets in May 2024. The EU accused the outlets Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta of disseminating propaganda about the war in Ukraine.
The question the article does not address is, “What are the likely retaliatory measures?” Russia has blocked major European news Web sites, including Der Spiegel and El Pais, among others. Mr. Putin’s “threats” have been characterized as verbal assertions, not cyber attacks designed to cripple key EU countries or direct kinetic action against the United Kingdom.
Several observations are warranted:
- Telegram is a big player for Russia’s propaganda machine
- The Kremlin’s grousing makes it clear that some Telegram marketing verbiage is baloney when asserting that the organization operates without compromising “freedom of speech”
- The frantic push by Telegram in the crypto space can be interpreted as part of the Russia-supported effort to undermine the US dollar and get around sanctions imposed on Russia as a consequence of the three-year special operation.
Net net: Telegram warrants close observation in 2025.
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
FOGINT: Divergent Trajectories for Facebook and Telegram
January 7, 2025
A post from the FOGINT team.
The Techmeme splash page featured several Meta (Facebook, WhatsApp, etc.) stories. Here’s a mini-version of the home page with the Zuck-related stories identified:
The separate “stories” presented one theme: Free speech. Here’s a representative item from today’s Techmeme page at 9 20 am US Eastern: “Meta Is Ending Its Fact-Checking Program in Favor of a Community Notes System Similar to X.” The news item from NBC reports:
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a series of major changes to the company’s moderation policies and practices Tuesday, citing a shifting political and social landscape and a desire to embrace free speech. Zuckerberg said that Meta will end its fact-checking program with trusted partners and replace it with a community-driven system similar to X’s Community Notes. The company is also making changes to its content moderation policies around political topics and undoing changes that reduced the amount of political content in user feeds, Zuckerberg said.
For me, this says, “Cut some costs and respond to “a shifting political and social landscape.” The direction in which Meta is moving seems to be “freer speech,” albeit within whatever Silly Putty guardrails Mr. Zuckerberg decrees.
In contrast, Telegram — which has out-innovated Meta for many years — is taking a different path through environmental changes in the datasphere. Since France required that Mr. Durov, founder and “owner” of Telegram remain in France until his company’s behavior has been dissected, Telegram is moving on a different trajectory. A few details of this charge have been reported in “Telegram Hands U.S. Authorities Data on Thousands of Users.” This exposé declares:
Telegram, the popular social network and messaging application which has also become a hotbed for all sorts of serious criminal activity, provided U.S. authorities with data on more than 2,200 users last year, according to newly released data from Telegram. The news shows a massive spike in the number of data requests fulfilled by Telegram after French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in August, in part because of the company’s unwillingness to provide user data in a child abuse investigation. Between January 1 and September 30, 2024, Telegram fulfilled 14 requests “for IP addresses and/or phone numbers” from the United States, which affected a total of 108 users, according to Telegram’s Transparency Reports bot. But for the entire year of 2024, it fulfilled 900 requests from the U.S. affecting a total of 2,253 users, meaning that the number of fulfilled requests skyrocketed between October and December, according to the newly released data. “Fulfilled requests from the United States of America for IP address and/or phone number: 900,” Telegram’s Transparency Reports bot said when prompted for the latest report by 404 Media. “Affected users: 2253,” it added.
Since France’s direct action, Telegram has apparently become even more cooperative with law enforcement. Plus, Telegram agreed to participate in activities designed to identify human traffickers. On the surface, it appears that Telegram is becoming more agreeable to legitimate requests from law enforcement. Telegram has become associated with a number of interesting and possibly illegal activities in some countries. Examples range from groups (private and public) discussing terrorism and child pornography.
But that “shift” to cooperation distracts from what is a major change at Telegram and its affiliated entities like The Open Network Foundation, Ton.social, and assorted investment vehicles. Specifically, Telegram is doubling down on crypto currency. The Telegram infrastructure is being shaped and in some cases repurposed to host services, features, and distributed applications related to crypto. The idea, as the FOGINT team understands it, is to provide a hub or nexus for traditional financial services built on crypto, not the US dollar, euros, or “traditional” and regulated currencies.
A second effect of this shift at Telegram is its push to provide a home for a wide range of seemingly harmless online games. On the surface, a parent or a person as old as the producer of this blog, would glance at the display and think, “Oh, another child’s game.” Those individuals would be incorrect. Telegram “click to earn” games include addictive hooks and the upside of playing are points which can be converted to crypto currency. Gambling and the downstream financial services required by big winners or “whales” are the customers. The addictive element is just part of Telegram’s marketing activities.
Net net: Meta wants free speech or at least to appear to be lining up with the “shifting political and social landscape.” Telegram is using social as a way to speed use of crypto as an alternative to the US dollar. Social media giants are similar in some ways, but at this point in time, the two companies are on divergent trajectories.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
Dubai: The 21st Century Crypto “Silicon Valley”
January 7, 2025
Information from the FOGINT research team.
How prescient was Telegram when it selected Dubai as headquarters of a decentralized, distributed company? After Pavel Durov bounced from Moscow to Berlin, to Singapore to San Francisco, and ended up in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, his judgment seems good. FOGINT’s view is that he listened to UAE government officials and determined that that country wanted to become the financial hub for crypto currency. The goal of both UEA and Telegram aligned: Both wanted to exploit a desire of many countries and financial entrepreneurs from the US-centric financial system to one based on crypto currency, largely unregulated crypto currency cut loose from the shackles of the US financial system. A standard other than and competitive with the US dollar promised a shift of finance from Wall Street to Sheikh Zayed Road.
The plan is not a secret. “UAE to Attract Crypto Ventures Amid EU’s Stringent MiCA Regulation: Experts” reports that regulations in Western Europe are adding a kick in the pants for some crypto-centric innovators. The regulation is Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). Its purpose is to establish a legal framework — that is, uniform rules for crypto assets — across the EU. MiCA might be the booster that the United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern states want. A more supportive regulatory environment and a thriving crypto community exist in the United Arab Emirates.
According to the Crypto News’ report:
The MiCA regulation introduces a pan-European licensing and supervisory regime for crypto-assets, exchanges, and service providers… Among its stringent requirements, small stablecoin issuers must hold 30% of their reserves in low-risk EU-based commercial banks, while major players like Tether face a mandate to maintain 60% or more in similar institutions. While aimed at ensuring market stability, these rules are seen as increasing operational costs, potentially undermining the financial viability of many firms.
The FOGINT team wants to point out that the UAE provides a “crucible” for crypto innovation; specifically:
- A regulatory environment different from that in the US and Western Europe; for example, a Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in Dubai oversees the regulation, licensing, and governance of virtual assets
- Tax benefits because there is currently no direct taxation on cryptocurrencies in the UAE
- Infrastructure provides a “Silicon Valley”-type of magnetic pull situated almost equidistant from Asian financial hubs and Western European money centers
- The UAE supports the crypto industry via the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre and the Dubai International Financial Centre
The UAE has cultivated a robust ecosystem for crypto and blockchain innovation with more than 500 crypto startups are now based in Dubai’s free zones. One poster child for Dubai’s flexibility is Telegram’s choice of the city as the location for its “headquarters.” (Keep in mind that Telegram is a distributed and decentralized organization, so the “staff” in Dubai is modest in size for the company’s size.) Plus, the UAE has implemented measures to ensure investor protection and market stability with Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements. Also, the Central Bank of the UAE approved a custodial insurance product to protect financial institutions and their clients from potential losses due to hacks or internal fraud.
One key question: Are there technical professionals with crypto experience in Dubai? The answer, in part, can be approached via the attendance at the November 2024 TON Foundation Gateway Conference. The conference attracted about 400 people in 2023. In November 2024, more than 2000 crypto savvy professionals participated in two day program held in Dubai. The UAE may be on the path to becoming the hot spot for crypto innovation.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
FOGINT: What Do the Most Recent Telegram Function Enhancements Portend for 2025?
January 2, 2025
This is a report from the FOGINT research team.
For a company without a permanent office with staff who show up everyday, Telegram has been busy in December 2024. One good example is Telegram’s chopping up the video stream from its Gateway Conference held in early November 2024. The individual talks with their unique Telegram / TON Foundation quirkiness are available on YouTube at this link. One can mostly parse some speakers’ content using the Google caption function.
Also, a “real” news service has collected several other Telegram and its ecosystem announcement in “Telegram Rolls Out Third-Party Account Verification, Filters.” For those unfamiliar with Telegram, the service offered a verification process. That service remains, and “has now launched a new project to let already-verified third-party authorities, such as food quality regulators or educational consortiums, verify an account.” The article also points out that Telegram has added “filters” to the baked in search and retrieval service. FOGINT wants to point out that the search service is not very good. Retrieval remains spotty. The only way to find certain content is to monitor specific public and private groups. The content from these groups can then be downloaded or sucked from the service with a well-crafted script tuned to observe Telegram’s quite specific blocks on bulk downloading. According to the cited article, Telegram has added:
- Emoji reactions
- Sending gifts (this is a money generating angle)
- Search filters for private chats, group chats, and channels.
The write up does not ask the question, “What is the direction these features suggest Telegram and its associated entities are heading in 2025?”
Here’s FOGINT’s take on the path Telegram is likely to follow:
- Freeing Pavel will be a top priority
- Amping up Telegram and the TON Foundation’s crypto activities. (Telegram is the platform for TON Foundation; the Foundation is the marketing and developer magnet for the TONcoin.)
- Provide functions and services like third party verification to show the French judiciary and others that Telegram does have “real” users and can provide investigators with some useful information maybe.
But the big priority after the “Free Pavel” action is crypto; specifically, making the Telegram platform the hub for crypto gaming and possibly some allied services like automating the movement of crypto from one coin and wallet to other wallets and coins. Tie ups with the Ku Group and other organizations providing crypto alternatives to traditional and regulated financial systems are on board and rolling out integrated services at this time.
Stephen E Arnold, January 2, 2025
FOGINT: TOMA Abandoning Telegram in Sharp U Turn
December 24, 2024
Observations from the FOGINT research team.
Pressure is building on Telegram’s vision for Messenger to become the hub for game crypto currency. Bitnewsbot published allegedly accurate information in “Popular Telegram Game Tomarket Ditches TON, Picks Aptos for Token Launch.” The article asserts:
Telegram-based gaming platform Tomarket announced it will launch its TOMA token on the Aptos blockchain network, abandoning initial plans to deploy on The Open Network (TON). The decision affects millions of users ahead of the December 20 token launch, marking a significant shift in the Telegram mini-app ecosystem.
One of the reasons given for the switch, according to Bitnewsbot, is the “speed and infrastructure capabilities” of Aptos’s blockchain network. The article continues:
The decision stands out as most Telegram-based cryptocurrency applications, including prominent names like Hamster Kombat and Notcoin, typically deploy on TON. The TON blockchain has seen substantial growth, currently ranking as the 16th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to CoinGecko with, a price increase of approximately 190% over the past year.
The online information service Decrypt.io adds some additional information which suggests that the Telegram infrastructure is not as supple as the Aptos offering; specifically:
Tomarket has handed out allocations of tokens across multiple airdrop waves, but players have been unable to withdraw or trade the token. The app’s developers previously said that the TOMA token was generated, but clarified afterwards that the term was used to describe token allocations within the app. And now, Tomarket won’t ultimately deploy to TON.
Decrypt.io reports:
Tomarket isn’t the first game to choose an alternative path, however: tap-to-earn combat game MemeFi recently launched its token on Sui, after pivoting from its original chain of Ethereum layer-2 network Linea.
The FOGINT team thinks that this Tonmarket abrupt change of direction may increase the pressure on Telegram at a time the organization is trying to wriggle free from the French red tape ensnaring Pavel Durov. Mr. Durov is on a legal tightrope. Defections like Tonmarket may spark some unpredictable actions by the Telegram collections of “organizations.”
Stephen E Arnold, December 24, 2024
Telegram: Pressure Mounting on the TON Entities
December 23, 2024
Observations from the Telegram research team.
Two apparently unrelated news items provide tantalizing hints about what Telegram will do in 2025. The phrase “cornered animal” is typically not used to describe a 40 year old person with a lot of money, a large technical company, and allegedly more than 100 children. The FOGINT team thinks that the two word phrase may apply to Pavel Durov, the founder of VKontakte and Telegram.
Mr. Durov has been under the control of the French judiciary since August 2024. French legal proceeding can be slow and painstaking. Via his attorneys’ interaction with the French authorities and his own one-on-one discussions, Mr. Durov has indicated that he wants to cooperate with investigators in matters deemed to be illegal.
How has Telegram changed in the three months? One excellent run down of Telegram’s behavior appeared in the “report” published by Telegram. “Telegram Moderation Overview” provides some detail about Telegram’s “cooperation” in some law enforcement activities. The cited report covers Telegram’s view of banning CSAM, some terrorist communities (the term is, however, not defined by the Telegram author), and some general information about how many groups and channels have been blocked.
What’s notable is that the graphics in the write up illustrate that Telegram has been a consistent upholder of the “law” for a month:
A second item of information illustrates that despite the Telegram crypto push, resistance remains. Navigate to the “2024 Crypto Developer Report.” One interesting observation about Telegram and its “foundation’s” TONcoin is that it is not listed. Solana seems to be perking along. However, the TON developer outreach program lack magnitude to bump the needle in these data published by Electric Capital.
What happens if one views these two loosely related pieces of information together? Here are some ideas generated by the FOGINT team:
- Mr. Durov is not a “free” person, and he is making an effort to say, “Hey, we cooperate with law enforcement.”
- The November 2024 Telegram Foundation Gateway Conference was like a light show at a French chateau in the summer. There was what looked like big progress in partnerships, developer uptake, and financial performance. However, the Electric Capital report did not pay much attention.
- The TONcoin seems to be chugging along without much value movement. Hamsters in “kombat” may be excited. Actual uptake seems flat among developers in the Electric Capital sample.
Net net: Telegram is in a vulnerable position. Will Mr. Durov perceive himself as his next big thing in jeopardy? If so, he may become more problematic in 2025. A cornered ferret can be a quite dangerous beast.
Stephen E Arnold, December 23, 2024
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