The AI Bandwagon: A Hoped for Lawyer Billing Bonanza
November 8, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The AI bandwagon is picking up speed. A dark smudge appears in the sky. What is it? An unidentified aerial phenomenon? No, it is a dense cloud of legal eagles. I read “U.S. Regulation of Artificial Intelligence: Presidential Executive Order Paves the Way for Future Action in the Private Sector.”
A legal eagle — aka known as a lawyer or the segment of humanity one of Shakespeare’s characters wanted to drown — is thrilled to read an official version of the US government’s AI statement. Look at what is coming from above. It is money from fees. Thanks, Microsoft Bing, you do understand how the legal profession finds pots of gold.
In this essay, which is free advice and possibly marketing hoo hah, I noted this paragraph:
While the true measure of the Order’s impact has yet to be felt, clearly federal agencies and executive offices are now required to devote rigorous analysis and attention to AI within their own operations, and to embark on focused rulemaking and regulation for businesses in the private sector. For the present, businesses that have or are considering implementation of AI programs should seek the advice of qualified counsel to ensure that AI usage is tailored to business objectives, closely monitored, and sufficiently flexible to change as laws evolve.
Absolutely. I would wager a 25 cents coin that the advice, unlike the free essay, will incur a fee. Some of those legal fees make the pittance I charge look like the cost of chopped liver sandwich in a Manhattan deli.
Stephen E Arnold, November 8, 2023
Missing Signals: Are the Tools or Analysts at Fault?
November 7, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Returning from a trip to DC yesterday, I thought about “signals.” The pilot — a specialist in hit-the-runway-hard landings — used the word “signals” in his welcome-aboard speech. The word sparked two examples of missing signals. The first is the troubling kinetic activities in the Middle East. The second is the US Army reservist who went on a shooting rampage.
The intelligence analyst says, “I have tools. I have data. I have real time information. I have so many signals. Now which ones are important, accurate, and actionable?” Our intrepid professionals displays the reality of separating the signal from the noise. Scary, right? Time for a Starbuck’s visit.
I know zero about what software and tools, systems and informers, and analytics and smart software the intelligence operators in Israel relied upon. I know even less about what mechanisms were in place when Robert Card killed more than a dozen people.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published “Experts React: Assessing the Israeli Intelligence and Potential Policy Failure.” The write up stated:
It is incredible that Hamas planned, procured, and financed the attacks of October 7, likely over the course of at least two years, without being detected by Israeli intelligence. The fact that it appears to have done so without U.S. detection is nothing short of astonishing. The attack was complex and expensive.
And one more passage:
The fact that Israeli intelligence, as well as the international intelligence community (specifically the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network), missed millions of dollars’ worth of procurement, planning, and preparation activities by a known terrorist entity is extremely troubling.
Now let’s shift to the Lewiston Maine shooting. I had saved on my laptop “Six Missed Warning Signs Before the Maine Mass Shooting Explained.” The UK newspaper The Guardian reported:
The information about why, despite the glaring sequence of warning signs that should have prevented him from being able to possess a gun, he was still able to own over a dozen firearms, remains cloudy.
Those “signs” included punching a fellow officer in the US Army Reserve force, spending some time in a mental health facility, family members’ emitting “watch this fellow” statements, vibes about issues from his workplace, and the weapon activity.
On one hand, Israel had intelligence inputs from just about every imaginable high-value source from people and software. On the other hand, in a small town the only signal that was not emitted by Mr. Card was buying a billboard and posting a message saying, “Do not invite Mr. Card to a church social.”
As the plane droned at 1973 speeds toward the flyover state of Kentucky, I jotted down several thoughts. Like or not, here these ruminations are:
- Despite the baloney about identifying signals and determining which are important and which are not, existing systems and methods failed bigly. The proof? Dead people. Subsequent floundering.
- The mechanisms in place to deliver on point, significant information do not work. Perhaps it is the hustle bustle of everyday life? Perhaps it is that humans are not very good at figuring out what’s important and what’s unimportant. The proof? Dead people. Constant news releases about the next big thing in open source intelligence analysis. Get real. This stuff failed at the scale of SBF’s machinations.
- The uninformed pontifications of cyber security marketers, the bureaucratic chatter flowing from assorted government agencies, and the cloud of unknowing when the signals are as subtle as the foghorn on cruise ship with a passenger overboard. Hello, hello, the basic analysis processes don’t work. A WeWork investor’s thought processes were more on point than the output of reporting systems in use in Maine and Israel.
After the aircraft did the thump-and-bump landing, I was able to walk away. That’s more than I can say for the victims of analysis, investigation, and information processing methods in use where moose roam free and where intelware is crafted and sold like canned beans at TraderJoe’s.
Less baloney and more awareness that talking about advanced information methods is a heck of a lot easier than delivering actual signal analysis.
Stephen E Arnold, November 7, 2023
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Is Utah a Step Behind As Meta Threads Picks Up Steam?
November 3, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Now that TikTok has become firmly embedded in US culture, regulators are finally getting around to addressing its purported harms. Utah joins Arkansas and Indiana in suing parent company ByteDance even as the US Supreme Court considers whether social-media regulation violates the US Constitution. No, it is not the threat of Chinese spying that has Utah’s Division of Consumer Protection taking action this time. Rather, Digital Trends reports, “TikTok Sued by Utah Over Alleged Child Addiction Harm.” Yes, that’s a big concern too. Writer Treavor Mogg tells us:
“Utah’s filing focuses on the app’s alleged negative impact on children, claiming that TikTok ‘surreptitiously designed and deployed addictive features to hook young users into endlessly scrolling through the company’s app.’ It accused TikTok of wanting Utah citizens to ‘spend as much time on its app as possible so it can place advertisements in front of them more often,’ and alleges that the company ‘misled young users and their parents about the app’s dangers.’ In damning comments shared in a statement on Tuesday, Utah Attorney General Sean D. Reyes said: ‘I’m tired of TikTok lying to Utah parents. I’m tired of our kids losing their innocence and even their lives addicted to the dark side of social media. TikTok will only change if put at legal risk — and ‘at risk’ is where they have left our youth in exchange for profit and greed. Immediate and pervasive threats require swift and bold responses. We have a compelling case against TikTok. Our kids are worth the fight.’”
Reyes is not bluffing. The state has already passed laws to limit minors’ social media usage, with measures such as verified parental consent required for sign-ups and even making accounts and messages accessible to parents. Though many are concerned the latter is a violation of kids’ privacy, the laws are scheduled to go into effect next year.
But what about the other social media apps? Elon is not dragging his heels. And the Zuck? Always the Zuck.
Cynthia Murrell, November 3, 2023
Does a UK Facial Recognition Case Spell Trouble for AI Regulation?
October 30, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
I noted this Politico article in my feed today (October 30, 2023). I am a dinobaby and no legal eagle. Consequently I may be thinking incorrectly about the information in “An AI Firm Harvested Billions of Photos without Consent. Britain Is Powerless to Act.” The British government has been talking about smart software. French government officials seem to be less chatty. The US government has ideas as well. What’s the Politico write up say that has me thinking that AI regulation, AI industry cooperation, and AI investors will not be immediately productive?
“Where did my horse go?” asks the farmer. Thanks, Microsoft Bing. The image is not of a horse out of a barn, but it is good enough… just like most technology today. Good enough is excellence.
Here’s the statement which concerns the facial recognition company Clearview, and its harvesting of image data. Those data are used to assist enforcement agencies in their work. The passage I circled was:
The judgment, issued by the three-member tribunal at the First-tier Tribunal, agreed with Clearview’s assertion that the ICO lacked jurisdiction in the case because the data processing in question was carried out on behalf of foreign government agencies. The ICO failed “not because this isn’t monitoring and not because in other circumstances, this might not be in breach of U.K. GDPR, but because it’s foreign law enforcement. It’s outside of the scope of European Union law so it doesn’t apply,” said James Moss, privacy and data protection partner at the law firm Bird & Bird.
Could AI regulation in the EU find itself caught in the same thicket? Furthermore, efforts in the US to curb or slow down the pace of AI innovation may collide with the reality of other countries’ efforts to expand business and military use of AI. Common sense suggests that nation states like China are unlikely to inhibit their interests in AI. What will Britain and US do?
My thought is that much effort will be expended in meetings, writing drafts, discussing the ideas, and promulgating guidelines. The plain fact is that both commercial and investor interests will find a way to push forward. Innovations like AI and the downstream applications have considerable potential for law enforcement and military professionals.
Net net: AI, despite its flaws and boundary breaking, is now out of the barn. Time travel is an interesting idea, but the arrow of time is here and now like the lawyers and bureaucrats.
Stephen E Arnold, October 30, 2023
Making Chips: What Happens When Sanctions Spark Work Arounds
October 25, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
Maybe the Japanese outfit Canon is providing an example of the knock on effects of sanctions. On the other hand, maybe this is just PR. My hunch is more information will become available in the months ahead. “Nanoimprint Lithography Semiconductor Manufacturing System That Covers Diverse Applications with Simple Patterning Mechanism” discloses:
On October 13, 2023, Canon announced today the launch of the FPA-1200NZ2C nanoimprint semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which executes circuit pattern transfer, the most important semiconductor manufacturing process.
“This might be important,” says a technologically oriented animal in rural Kentucky. Thanks, MidJourney, continue to descend gradiently.
The idea is small and printing traces of a substance. The application is part of the expensive and delicate process of whipping out modern chips.
The write up continues:
By bringing to market semiconductor manufacturing equipment with nanoimprint lithography (NIL) technology, in addition to existing photolithography systems, Canon is expanding its lineup of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to meet the needs of a wide range of users by covering from the most advanced semiconductor devices to the existing devices.
Several observations are warranted:
- Oh, oh. A new process may be applicable to modern chip manufacturing.
- The system and method may be of value to countries dealing with US sanctions.
- Clever folks find ways to do things that regulatory language cannot anticipate.
Is this development important even if the Canon announcement is a bit fluffy? Yep, because the information about the system and method provide important road signs on the information superhighway. Canon does cameras, owns some intelware technology, and now allegedly provides an alternative to the traditional way to crank out advanced semiconductors.
Stephen E Arnold, October 25, 2023
Video Analysis: Do Some Advanced Systems Have Better Marketing Than Technology?
October 16, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I am tempted to list some of the policeware and intelware companies which tout video analysis capabilities. If we narrow our focus to Israel, there are a number of companies which offer software and systems that can make sense of video data. Years ago, I attended a briefing and the company (which I will not name) showed that its system could zip through a 90 minute video of a soccer (football) match and identify the fouls and the goals. Like most demonstrations, the system worked perfectly. In actual real world situations, the system did not work. Video footage is a problem, but there are companies which assert their developers’ confection.
Aggressive bunnies get through the farmer’s fence. The smart surveillance cameras emit a faint beep. The bunnies are having a great time. The farmer? Not so much. Thank you, MidJourney. You do a nice bunny.
Here’s the results of the query “video analysis Israel.” Notice that I am not including the name of a company nor a specific country. Google returned ads and video thumbnails and this result:
The cited article is from Israel21c 2013 write up “Israel’s Top 12 Video Surveillance Advances.” The cited article reports as actual factual:
Combing such vast amounts of material [from the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013] would have taken months, or even years in the past, but with new video analytics technologies developed by Israel’s BriefCam, according to the publication IsraelDefense, it took authorities just a few days to identify and track Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarneav, the two main suspects in the attack which killed three, and wounded 183. Within five days one of the terrorists was dead, the other arrested after a 22-hour manhunt.
BriefCam is now owned by Canon, the Japanese camera maker. Imagine the technical advances in the last 10 years.
I don’t know if Israel had a BriefCam system at its disposal in the last six months. My understanding is that the Israel Defense Force and related entities have facial recognition systems. These can work on still pictures as well as digital video.
Why is this important?
The information in the San Francisco Chronicle article “Hamas Practiced in Plain Sight, Posting Video of Mock Attack Weeks Before Border Breach” asserts:
A slickly produced two-minute propaganda video posted to social media by Hamas on Sept. 12 shows fighters using explosives to blast through a replica of the border gate, sweep in on pickup trucks and then move building by building through a full-scale reconstruction of an Israeli town, firing automatic weapons at human-silhouetted paper targets. The Islamic militant group’s live-fire exercise dubbed operation “Strong Pillar” also had militants in body armor and combat fatigues carrying out operations that included the destruction of mock-ups of the wall’s concrete towers and a communications antenna, just as they would do for real in the deadly attack last Saturday.
If social media monitoring systems worked, the video should have been flagged and routed to the IDF. If the video analysis and facial recognition systems worked, an alert to a human analyst could have sparked a closer look. It appears that neither of these software-intermediated actions took place and found their way to a human analyst skilled in figuring out what the message payload of the video was. Who found the video? Based on the tag line to the cited article, the information was located by reporters for the Associated Press.
What magical research powers did the AP have? None as it turns out. The article reports:
The Associated Press reviewed more than 100 videos Hamas released over the last year, primarily through the social media app Telegram. Using satellite imagery, the AP was able to verify key details, as well as identify five sites Hamas used to practice shooting and blowing holes in Israel’s border defenses. The AP matched the location of the mocked-up settlement from the Sept 12 video to a patch of desert outside Al-Mawasi, a Palestinian town on the southern coast of the Gaza Strip. A large sign in Hebrew and Arabic at the gate says “Horesh Yaron,” the name of a controversial Israeli settlement in the occupied Palestinian West Bank.
I don’t want to be overly critical of tools like BriefCam or any other company. I do want to offer several observations from my underground office in rural Kentucky:
- The Hamas attack was discernable via humans who were paying attention. Were people in the IDF and related agencies paying attention? Apparently something threw a wrench in a highly-visible, aggressively marketed intelligence capability, right?
- What about home grown video and facial recognition systems? Yes, what about them. My hunch is that the marketing collateral asserts some impressive capabilities. What is tough to overlook is that for whatever reason (human or digital), the bunny got through the fence and did damage to some precious, fragile organic material.
- Are other policeware and intelware vendors putting emphasis on marketing instead of technical capabilities? My experience over the last half century says, “When sales slow down and the competition heats up, marketing takes precedence over the actual product.”
Net net: Is it time for certification of cyber security technology? Is it time for an external audit of intelligence operations? The answer to both questions, I think, is, “Are you crazy?”
Stephen E Arnold, October 16, 2023
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India: Okay, No More CSAM or Else the Cash Register Will Ring
October 12, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
X (the Tweeter thing), YouTube, and Telegram get a tough assignment. India wants child sexual abuse material or CSAM for those who want to do acronym speak scrubbed from content or services delivered in the great nation of India. There are some interesting implications for these US technology giants. First, the outfits are accustomed to just agreeing and not doing much to comply with government suggestions. In fact, most of the US high-tech firms offer promises, and those can be slippery fish. Second, determining what is and what is not CSAM can be a puzzler as well. Bad actors are embracing smart software and generating some realistic images and videos without having to find, coerce, film, and pay off humans involved in the distasteful but lucrative business. Questions about the age of a synthetic child porno star are embarrassing to ask and debate. Remember the need for a diverse group to deliberate about such matters. Also, the advent of smart software invites orchestration so that text prompts can be stuffed into a system. The system happily outputs videos with more speed than a human adult industry star speeding to a shoot after a late call. Zeros and ones are likely to take over CSAM because … efficiency.
“India Tells X, YouTube, Telegram to Remove Any Child Sexual Abuse Material from Platforms” reports:
The companies could be stripped of their protection from legal liability if they don’t comply, the government said in a statement. The notices, sent by the federal Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY), emphasized the importance of prompt and permanent removal of any child sexual abuse material on these platforms.
My dinobaby perspective is that [a] these outfits cannot comply because neither smart software nor legions of human content curators can keep up with the volume of videos and images pumped by these systems. [b] India probably knows that the task is a tough one and may be counting on some hefty fines to supplement other sources of cash for a delightful country. [c] Telegram poses a bit of a challenge because bad actors use Dark Web and Clear Web lures to attract CSAM addicts and then point to a private Telegram group to pay for and get delivery of the digital goods. That encryption thing may be a sticky wicket.
Net net: Some high-tech outfits may find doing business in India hotter than a Chettinad masala.
Stephen E Arnold, October 13, 2023
Intelware: Some Advanced Technology Is Not So New
October 11, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read “European Spyware Consortium Supplied Despots and Dictators.” The article is a “report” about intelware vendors. The article in Spiegel International is a “can you believe this” write up. The article identifies a number of companies past and present. Plus individuals are identified.
The hook is technology that facilitates exfiltration of data from mobile devices. Mobile phones are a fashion item and a must have for many people. It does not take much insight to conclude that data on these ubiquitous gizmos can provide potentially high value information. Even better, putting a software module on a mobile device of a person of interest can save time and expense. Modern intelligence gathering techniques are little more than using technology to minimize the need for humans sitting in automobiles or technicians planting listening devices in interesting locations. The other benefits of technology include real time or near real time data acquisition, geo-location data, access to the digital information about callers and email pals, and data available to the mobile’s ever improving cameras and microphones.
The write up points out:
One message, one link, one click. That’s all it takes to lose control of your digital life, unwittingly and in a matter of seconds.
The write up is story focused, probably because a podcast or a streaming video documentary was in the back of the mind of the writers and possibly Spiegel International itself. If you like write ups that have a slant, you will find the cited article interesting.
I want to mentions several facets of the write up which get less attention from “real” journalists.
First, the story of the intelware dates back to the late 1970s. Obviously some of the technology has been around for decades, although refined over time. If this “shady” technology were a problem, why has it persisted, been refined, and pressed into service around the world by many countries? It is tempting to focus on a current activity because it makes a good story, but the context and longevity of some of the systems and methods are interesting to me. But 40 years?
Second, in the late 1970s and the block diagrams I have seen presenting the main features of the Amesys system (i2e Technologies) and its direct descendants have had remarkable robustness. In fact, were one to look at the block diagram for a system provided to a controversial government in North Africa and one of the NSO Group Pegasus block diagrams, the basics are retained. Why? A good engineering solution is useful even thought certain facets of the system are improved with modern technology. What’s this mean? From my point of view, the clever individual or group eager to replicate this type of stealth intelware can do it, just with modern tools and today’s robust cloud environment. The cloud was not a “thing” in 1980, but today it is a Teflon for intelware. This means quicker, faster, better, cheaper, and smarter with each iteration.
Source: IT News in Australia
Third, this particular type of intelware is available from specialized software companies worldwide. Want to buy a version from a developer in Spain? No problem. How about a Chinese variety? Cultivate your contacts in Hong Kong or Singapore and your wish will be granted. What about a version from an firm based in India? No problem, just hang out at telecommunications conference in Mumbai.
Net net: Newer and even more stealthy intelware technologies are available today. Will these be described and stories about the use of them be written? Yep. Will I identify some of these firms? Sure, just attend one of my lectures for law enforcement and intelligence professionals. But the big question is never answered, “Why are these technologies demonstrating such remarkable magnetic appeal?” And a related question, “Why do governments permit these firms to operate?”
Come on, Spiegel International. Write about a more timely approach, not one that is decades old and documented in detail on publicly accessible sources. Oh, is location tracking enabled on your phone to obviate some of the value of Signal, Telegram, and Threema encrypted messaging apps?
PS. Now no clicks are needed. The technology can be deployed when a mobile number is known and connected to a network. There is an exception too. The requisite code can be pre-installed on one’s mobile device. Is that a story? Nah, that cannot be true. I agree.
Stephen E Arnold, October 11, 2023
Newly Emerged Snowden Revelations Appear in Dutch Doctoral Thesis
October 10, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
One Eddie Snowden (a fine gent indeed) rumor said that 99 percent of the NSA data Edward Snowden risked his neck to expose ten years ago remains unpublished. Some entities that once possessed that archive are on record as having destroyed it. This includes The Intercept, which was originally created specifically to publish its revelations. So where are the elusive Snowden files now? Could they be In the hands of a post-PhD researcher residing in Berlin? Computer Weekly examines three fresh Snowden details that made their way into a doctoral thesis in its article, “New Revelations from the Snowden Archive Surface.” The thesis was written by American citizen Jacob Applebaum, who has since received his PhD from the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands. Reporter Stefania Maurizi summarizes:
“These revelations go back a decade, but remain of indisputable public interest:
- The NSA listed Cavium, an American semiconductor company marketing Central Processing Units (CPUs) – the main processor in a computer which runs the operating system and applications – as a successful example of a ‘SIGINT-enabled’ CPU supplier. Cavium, now owned by Marvell, said it does not implement back doors for any government.
- The NSA compromised lawful Russian interception infrastructure, SORM. The NSA archive contains slides showing two Russian officers wearing jackets with a slogan written in Cyrillic: ‘You talk, we listen.’ The NSA and/or GCHQ has also compromised Key European LI [lawful interception] systems.
- Among example targets of its mass surveillance program, PRISM, the NSA listed the Tibetan government in exile.”
Of public interest, indeed. See the write-up for more details on each point or, if you enjoy wading through academic papers, the thesis itself [pdf]. So how and when did Applebaum get his hands on information from the Snowden docs? Those details are not revealed, but we do know this much:
“In 2013, Jacob Appelbaum published a remarkable scoop for Der Spiegel, revealing the NSA had spied on Angela Merkel’s mobile phone. This scoop won him the highest journalistic award in Germany, the Nannen Prize (later known as the Stern Award). Nevertheless, his work on the NSA revelations, and his advocacy for Julian Assange and WikiLeaks, as well as other high-profile whistleblowers, has put him in a precarious condition. As a result of this, he has resettled in Berlin, where he has spent the past decade.”
Probably wise. Will most of the Snowden archive remain forever unpublished? Impossible to say, especially since we do not know how many copies remain and in whose hands.
Cynthia Murrell, October 10, 2023
Canada vs. Google: Not a Fair Hockey Game
October 9, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I get a bit of a thrill when sophisticated generalist executives find themselves rejected by high-tech wizards. An amusing example of “Who is in charge here?” appears in “Google Rejects Trudeau’s Olive Branch, Threatens News Link Block Over New Law.”
A seasoned high-tech executive explains that the laptop cannot retrieve Canadian hockey news any longer. Thanks, Microsoft Bing. Nice maple leaf hat.
The write up states:
Alphabet Inc.’s Google moved closer to blocking Canadians from viewing news links on its search engine, after it rejected government regulations meant to placate its concerns about an impending online content law.
Yep, Canada may not be allowed into the select elite of Google users with news. Why? Canada passed a law with which Google does not agree. Imagine. Canada wants Google to pay for accessing, scraping, and linking to Canadian news.
Canada does not understand who is in charge. The Google is the go-to outfit. If you don’t believe me, just ask some of those Canadian law enforcement and intelligence analysts what online system is used to obtain high-value information. Hint. It is not yandex.ru.
The write up adds:
Google already threatened to remove links to news, and tested blocking such content for a small percentage of users in Canada earlier this year. On Friday, it went further, implying a block could be imminent as the current regulations would force the company to participate in the mandatory bargaining process while it applies for exemption.
Will the Google thwart the Canadian government? Based on the importance of the Google system to certain government interests, a deal of some sort seems likely. But Google could just buy Canada and hire some gig workers to run the country.
Stephen E Arnold, October 9, 2023