The Big Show from the Google: Meh
May 11, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I ran a query on You.com, asking where I could view the Google Big Show* (no Tallulah Bankhead, just Sundar and friends). You replied as the show was airing on YouTube Live, “I don’t know where the program is.” Love that smart software, right? I clicked off because it was not as good as what Microsoft hit the slopes with in Davos. After Paris, I figured the Googlers would enlist its industry leading smart software and the really thrilled merged Google Brain and DeepMind wizards and roll out a killer program. I was thinking a digital Steve Jobs explaining killer innovations and an ending with “one more thing.” Alas, no reality distortion field, just me too, me too, me too.
A sad amateur vaudeville performer holds a tomato thrown at him when his song and dance act flopped. The art was created by the helpful and available MidJourney system. I wanted to use Bing, but I am not comfortable with the alleged surveillance characteristics of Credge.
How do I know my reaction is semi-valid. Today’s Murdochy Wall Street Journal ran the story about the Big Show on page three with the headline “Google Unveils Search Revamped for AI Era.” That’s like a vaudeville billing toward the bottom with the dog act and phrase “exotic animals.” Page three for the company that ignores the fact that it is selling online advertising with a system that generates oodles of cash yet not enough to keep a full complement of staff? That’s amazing!
I listened — briefly — to the This Week in Google podcast. I can’t understand how a program about Google can beat up on the firm with such gentle punches. I recall the phrase “a lack of strategic vision.” That was it. Navigate away to Lawfare, a program which actually discusses topics with some intellectual body blows.
I spoke with one of my research team. That person’s comment was:
I think Sundar is hitting the applause button and nothing is happening.
I though Google smart music could generate an applause track. Failing that, why not snip an applause track from one of Steve Jobs’s presentations. I like the one with the computer in the envelope or the roll out of the iPhone. I wonder if the AI infused Google search could not locate the video? You.com couldn’t locate the Google in out or off on program, but that is understandable. It was definitely a “don’t fail to miss it” event.
And where was Prabhakar Raghavan, the head of search? Where was Danny Sullivan, Google’s “we deliver relevant results”. Where was the charming head of DeepMind, an executive beloved by his team? Where was Dr. Jeff Dean, the inventor of Chubby and champion of recipes?
I know that OpenAI has been enjoying the Google wizard who explained that Google cannot keep up. See this allegedly accurate report called “Google and OpenAI Will Lose the AI Arms Race to Open-Source Engineers, a Googler Said in a Leaked Document.” Microsoft is probably high fiving and holding Team meetings with happy faces on the Microsofties who are logged in.
* The Big Show was a big flop for NBC when it aired in the early 1950s. Ah, Tallulah and the endless recycling of Jimmy Durante, snippets of stage plays, and truly memorable performers whose talent is different from today’s rap and pop stars. Here’s a famous quote from Tallulah which may be appropriate for Google’s hurry and catch up approach to innovation:
“There’s less here than meets the eye.”
I love that Tallulah quote.
Stephen E Arnold, May 11, 2023
The Google Reorg. Will It Output Xooglers, Not Innovations?
April 25, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
My team and I have been talking about the Alphabet decision to merge DeepMind with Google Brain. Viewed from one angle, the decision reflects the type of efficiency favored by managers who value the idea of streamlining. The arguments for consolidation are logical; for example, the old tried-and-true buzzword synergy may be invoked to explain the realignment. The decision makes business sense, particularly for an engineer or a number-oriented MBA, accountant, or lawyer.
Arguing against the “one plus one equals three” viewpoint may be those who have experienced the friction generated when staff, business procedures, and projects get close, interact, and release energy. I use the term “energy” to explain the dormant forces unleashed as the reorganization evolves. When I worked at a nuclear consulting firm early in my career, I recall the acrimonious and irreconcilable differences between a smaller unit in Florida and a major division in Maryland. The fix was to reassign personnel and give up on the dream of one big, happy group.
This somewhat pathos-infused image was created using NightCafe Creator and Craiyon. The author (a dinobaby) added the caption which may appeal to large language model-centric start ups with money, ideas, and a “we can do this” vibe.
Over the years, my team and I have observed Google’s struggles to innovate. The successes have been notable. Before the Alphabet entity was constructed, the “old” Google purchased Keyhole, Inc. (a spin-off of the gaming company Intrinsic). That worked after the US government invested in the company. There have been some failures too. My team followed the Orkut product which evolved from a hire named Orkut Büyükkökten, who had developed an allegedly similar system while working at InCircle. Orkut was a success, particularly among users in Brazil and a handful of other countries. However, some Orkut users relied on the system for activities which some found unacceptable. Google killed the social networking system in 2014 as Facebook surged to global prominence as Google’s efforts fell to earth. The company was in a position to be a player in social media, and it botched the opportunity. Steve Ballmer allegedly described Google as a “one-trick pony.” Mr. Ballmer’s touch point was Google’s dependence on online advertising: One source of revenue; therefore, a circus pony able to do one thing. Mr. Ballmer’s quip illustrates the fact that over the firm’s 20-plus year history, Google has not been able to diversify its revenue. More than two-thirds of the company’s money comes directly or indirectly from advertising.
My team and I have watched Google struggle to accept adapt its free-wheeling style to a more traditional business approach to policies and procedures. In one notable incident, my team and I were involved in reviewing proposals to index the content of the US Federal government. Google was one of the bidders. The Google proposal did not follow the expected format of responding to each individual requirement in the request for proposal. In 2000, Google professionals made it clear its method did not require that the government’s statement of work be followed. Other vendors responded, provided the required technical commentary, and produced cost estimates in a format familiar to those involved in the contracting award process. Flash forward 23 years, and Google has figured out how to capture US government work.
The key point: The learning process took a long time.
Why is this example relevant to the Alphabet decision to blend the Brain and DeepMind units? Change — despite the myths of Silicon Valley — is difficult for Alphabet. The tensions at the company are well known. Employees and part-time workers grouse and sometimes carry signs and disturb traffic. Specific personnel matters become, rightly or wrongly, messages that say, Google is unfair. The Google management generated an international spectacle with its all-thumbs approach to human relations. Dr. Timnit Gebru was a co-author of a technical paper which identified a characteristic of smart software. She and several colleagues explained that bias in training data produces results which are skewed. Anyone who has used any of the search systems which used open source libraries created by Google know that outputs are variable, which is a charitable way of saying, “Dr. Gebru was correct.” She became a Xoogler, set up a new organization, and organized a conference to further explain her research — the same research which ruffled the feathers of some Alphabet big birds.
The pace of generative artificial intelligence is accelerating. Disruption can be smelled like ozone in an old-fashioned electric power generation station. My team and I attempt to continue tracking innovations in smart software. We cannot do it. I am prepared to suggest that the job is quite challenging because the flow of new ChatGPT-type products, services, applications, and features is astounding. I recall the early days of the Internet when in 1993 I could navigate to a list of new sites via Mosaic browser and click on the ones of interest. I recall that in a matter of months the list grew too long to scan and was eventually discontinued. Smart software is behaving in this way: Too many people are doing too many new things.
I want to close this short personal essay with several points.
First, mashing up different cultures and a history of differences will act like a brake and add friction to innovative work. Such reorganizations will generate “heat” in the form of disputes, overt or quiet quitting, and an increase in productivity killers like planning meetings, internal product pitches, and getting legal’s blessing on a proposed service.
Second, a revenue monoculture is in danger when one pest runs rampant. Alphabet does not have a mechanism to slow down what is happening in the generative AI space. In online advertising, Google has knobs and levers. In the world of creating applications and hooking them together to complete tasks, Alphabet management seems to lack a magic button. The pests just eat the monoculture’s crop.
Third, the unexpected consequence of merging Brain and DeepMind may be creating what I call a “Xoogler Manufacturing Machine.” Annoyed or “grass is greener” Google AI experts may go to one of the many promising generative AI startups. Note: A former Google employee is sometimes labeled a “Xoogler,” which is shorthand for ex-Google employee.
Net net: In a conversation in 2005 with a Google professional whom I cannot name due to the confidentiality agreement I signed with the firm, I asked, “Do you think people and government officials will figure out what Google is really doing?” This person, who was a senior manager, said to the best of my recollection, “Sure and when people do, it’s game.” My personal view is that Alphabet is in a game in which the clock is ticking. And in the process of underperforming, Alphabet’s advertisers and users of free and for-fee services will shift their attention elsewhere, probably to a new or more agile firm able to leverage smart software. Alphabet’s most recent innovation is the creation of a Xoogler manufacturing system. The product? Former Google employees who want to do something instead of playing in the Alphabet sandbox with argumentative wizards and several ill-behaved office pets.
Stephen E Arnold, April 24, 2023
Average and Smart Software
March 31, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I by pure serendipity clicked on a link to an essay called in true click-bait style “The Age of Average.” Snappy, eh?
The article by Alex Murrell presents compelling examples of “good enough.” Illustrations and explanations elaborate the idea; for example:
- AirBnB interiors look similar for up-scale listings
- Cities look the same
- American apartments … the same
- Automobiles … yep.
Other examples reinforce the point: Average, good enough, the big middle, blah.
My team and I have noticed several characteristics about the outputs of smart software.
- Illustrations of clowns … similar
- Explanations of technical concepts … like cheating college freshman in a dorm
- Video outputs … mirrors of sample clips from low-ball video editing programs.
Good enough? Absolutely. Original, delightful, surprising, and innovative?
No, more like meh.
The buzz about Elon Musk and other luminaries sounding alarms about smart software are in my opinion “good enough.”
What’s this “good enough” revolution say about innovation in 2023? Here are my preliminary thoughts:
- Me too products like smart software applied to a calendar are interesting but what? Certainly not innovative and not useful to me. This dinobaby uses a paper calendar, and it works well.
- Calls to stop development because of fear that the technology will lead to the end of the world tell me something about those advocating absolutist behavior. Yeah, that is going to work well today.
- The lemming like behavior, which if Mr. Murrell’s argument is to be believed, is innate. The idea is that we are more alike than different is troubling. Everyone gets a ribbon, Mr. Murrell, even losers in the sixth grade relay race.
Net net: I am troubled by the notion of “good enough.” Whether innate or imposed by existing cultural or technical forces, progress is a result of the exception. “Good enough” means that the unique is unacceptable. What’s more frightening, smart software that suggests a search result or a loss of outlier thinking?
Stephen E Arnold, March 31, 2023
Google: Poked Painfully in Its Snout
March 15, 2023
The essay “Why Didn’t DeepMind Build GPT3?” identifies three reasons for Google getting poked in its snout. According to the author, the reasons were [a] no specific problem to solve, [b] less academic hoo haa at OpenAI, and [c] less perceived risk. My personal view is that Googlers’ intelligence is directed at understanding their navels, not jumping that familiar Silicon Valley chasm. (Microsoft marketers spotted an opportunity and grabbed it. Boom. Score one for the Softies.)
Google’s management team reacting to ChatGPT’s marketing success. The art was created via https://scribblediffusion.com/ who owns the creative juices required to fabricate this interesting depiction of Google caught in a moment of management decision making.
These reasons make sense to me. I would suggest that several other Google characteristics played a role, probably bit parts, but roles nevertheless.
Since 2006, Google fragmented; that is, the idea of Google providing great benefit as an heir to the world of IBM and Microsoft gave Google senior managers a Droit du seigneur. However, the revenue for the company came from the less elevated world of online advertising. Thus, there was a disconnect after the fraught early years, the legal battle prior to the IPO, and the development of the mostly automated systems to make sure Google captured revenue in the buying and selling and brokering of online advertising. After 2006, the split between what Google management believed it had created and the reality of the business was institutionalized. Google and smart software was perceived as the one right way. Period. That way was a weird blend of group think and elite academic methods.
Also, Google failed to bring direction and focus to its products. I no longer remember how many messaging services Google offered. I cannot keep track of the company’s different and increasingly oblique investment arms. I have given up trying to recall the many new product and service incubators the company launched. I do remember that Google wanted to solve death. That, I believe, proved to be a difficult problem as if Loon balloons, digital games, and dealing with revenue challengers like Amazon and Facebook were no big deal. The fragmentation struck me as similar to the colored particles tossed during Holi, just with a more negative environmental effect. Googlers were vision impaired when it came to seeing what priorities to set.
Plus, from my point of view Google professionals lacked the ability to focus beyond getting more money, influence, and access to the senior managers. In short, Google demonstrated the inability to manage its people and the company. The last few years have been characterized by employee issues and other legal swamps. The management method has reminded me of my high school science club. Every member was a top student. Every member believed their view was correct. Every member believed that the traditional methods of teaching were stupid, boring, and irrelevant. The problem was that instead of chasing money and closeness to the “senior managers”, my high school science club was chasing validation and manifestation of superiority. That was baloney, of course, but what do 16 year olds actually understand. Google’s management is similar to my high school science club.
Are there other factors? Sure, and these include a wildly fluctuating moral compass, confusing personal objectives with ethical objectives, and giving into base instincts (baby making in the legal department, heroin on a yacht with a specialized contractor, and March Madness fun in Las Vegas).
Who will chronicle these Google gaffes? Perhaps someone will input a text string into ChatGPT to get the information many have either ignored, forgotten, or did not understand.
Stephen E Arnold, March xx, 2022
Grogu: Another Google Me Too
January 18, 2023
Google in my mind is associated with the breakthrough slam dunk home run idea of Forward Forward smart software “learning.” Yep, forward forward. Catchy.
If the information in “Google Reportedly Working on Grogu Tracker to Compete with Apple’s AirTags” is on the money, Apple’s Tim Cook may have to worry about more than cancelled headsets and reduced pay. The write up states:
Google is reportedly developing its own tracking accessory… The tracker is said to be in development under the codename “Grogu” — a reference to the popular Star Wars series “The Mandalorian” — alongside the alternate names “GR10” and “Groguaudio.” The only other tidbits that have been uncovered so far suggest that the Nest team is seemingly taking lead on the development and that the tracker may be available in multiple colors.
Now about the timing of the me-too. The Tile Bluetooth tracker showed up in 2016. Then Apple’s AirTag became available five years later. Now the Google is allegedly preparing its me too Grogu for release in 2023 or maybe 2024.
Several observations:
- Google’s me too products have not gained the revenue momentum of its Yahoo, GoT0, Overture inspired online advertising “innovation”
- I thought Google was engaged in Code Red, an effort to respond to ChatGPT with the super better greater smart software. Are trackers, which I think of as airline harassment devices and stalker tools, a priority at the online ad outfit?
- Acquisition and imitation may be competing for the Number One way for the Google to come up with great ideas.
Maybe Grogu, the baby Yoda, will use the force to neutralize the buzz about ChatGPT? Luke, Luke, use the Force.
Stephen E Arnold, January 18, 2023
Amazon Innovation: Me Too, Me Too
December 12, 2022
I read “Amazon Comes for TikTok with Its Own In App Shopping Feed.” The main idea is that me too appears to be a driver of technological and product innovation at the world’s mom and pop online store. The write up states:
The online retail giant has announced Inspire(opens in new tab), a new short-form video experience that allows consumers to explore and buy products through a shoppable feed…
But wait there’s more to the crack Amazon technologists’ pioneering breakthroughs:
Amazon’s Inspire adds photos to the mix, giving users more ways to discover products they may like from various content creators, brands, and even other customers.
What I found interesting is that Amazon has discovered that a mobile first strategy makes sense. What an astounding market insight! Who knew other than Google, app developers, large telcos, and outfits making mobile phones. Other than those few segments, the mobile revolution has gone unnoticed until now.
The write up points out that Amazon may tap influencers to pitch its new, breath taking service. My thought is that stressed out Twitch content creators could be induced to pitch the Amazon’s Eureka moment with more money from the mom and pop online retailer.
My reaction to this shotgun hook up of TikTok and the Zucker’s Instagram is that Amazon has achieved quantum mobile supremacy. Oh, wait. That supremacy claim is one that Google likes to use.
Amazon will come up with some brilliant Mad Ave lingo. I am thinking “next day delivery” or “customer service.” Oh, wait…
Stephen E Arnold, December 12, 2022
Eureka! The Google Phone Call Feature
October 27, 2022
Despite not being the preferred method of communication anymore, phone calls are still a vital part of society. One thing that has always plagued phone calls is clear reception. The Verge shares how Google is innovating once more, but on old-school phone calls: “Google Is Working On ‘Clear Calling’ For Android Phone Calls.”
The new Android 13 release includes a “clear calling” feature stated to reduce background noise during calls. Twitter user Mishaal Rahman told people how to enable it. Clear Calling is supposed to work on most mobile networks, but it is not available for Wi-Fi calling and it does not send information from your phone calls to Google.
Google has experimented with noise cancellation technology before:
“Google has been flexing its noise-canceling muscles (and custom six-core audio chips) for a while. First, and most impressively, by using AI to suppress background noises like the crackling of snack bags, keyboard clicks, and dogs barking in Google Meet. More recently with the $199 Pixel Buds Pro — the company’s first earbuds with active noise cancellation.”
Noise cancellation technology can always stand improvements, especially to drown out all the noise generated by today’s media. What’s next? More data capture? More fines from non Googley government busybodies? More trimming of staff?
Whitney Grace, October 27, 2022
Am I Reading the CNN Critique of Big Tech Correctly?
October 18, 2022
I read “With Product Innovation Lagging, Silicon Valley Bets on a Fresh Coat of Paint.” The article discusses some familiar companies, founded by wizards who became cultural icons of US innovation. The write up states:
The emphasis on a new color palette for devices isn’t unique to Google. As tech companies showed off their latest smartphones, tablets and laptops at splashy press events over the last two months, many of the products had only limited changes on the outside but boasted elaborately named color options.
Does this mean that the technology of Silicon Valley has become similar to paint chips at Home Depot? Have the engineers been repurposed as interior decorators? Is Silicon Valley pointing to recalibrating Silicon Valley as a fashion forward outfit with “taste” becoming more important than delivering compelling products. I am thinking about the sad empty place which may be a metaphor for Mr. Zuckerberg’s vision of the future — a future with attractive colors no doubt.
The write up identifies some of the innovations in the article; for example:
- Seafoam
- Lemongrass
- Snows
- Sapphire
- Forest
- Metal
- Sandstone
- Alpine
- Bora purple
The write up points out:
But just as basic black, white, gray and silver are the top colors in the automobile industry, these colors tend to resonate most with smartphone owners, according to Peggy Van Allen, a color anthropologist for the Color Marketing Group.
Does this mean that Silicon Valley engineer decorators are living in a color bubble just as they existed in crazy features and projects no one understood or wanted. What was the color of Google Glass? What is the color of the Zuck’s metaverse? What’s the tint of Microsoft security? Here’s my answer: Failure gray maybe?
Net net: Engineer decorators, in my opinion, sums up where Silicon Valley’s innovation finds inspiration. Is that what “real news” thinks about the touchstone for technology gods? Paint chip people selling subscriptions?
Stephen E Arnold, October 18, 2022
Innovation at the Tweeter Thing: Going in Circles?
September 29, 2022
It looks like Twitter may be infected with feature-it is, an unfortunate condition that afflicts most social-media platforms sooner or later. Gizmodo reports, “Twitter Circles Have Arrived, and Here’s How To Use Them.” Seemingly channeling the ghost of Google Plus, the tool allows users to restrict a tweet to a certain set of users. Writer David Nield tells us:
“Unlike the edit option, Circles isn’t exclusive to Twitter Blue subscribers, and everyone should be able to access the feature now (or in the very near future). The idea is that maybe you don’t want all of the friends, family, colleagues, strangers, bots and brand accounts that follow you on Twitter to see everything you post. Perhaps you want some tweets—your opinions on obscure folk music of the early 2000s, for example—to only reach a limited audience. That’s where Twitter Circles comes in, and the feature isn’t difficult to use. Unlike the Google Plus implementation, Twitter is only giving users one circle, at least for now. No doubt the hope is that it will get people to tweet more: Something private that you might have previously hesitated to share can now be posted to the timelines of a private and select group of people.”
Of course, boosting traffic is in Twitter’s best interests. We learn users cannot opt out of a Circle they’d like to avoid, unless they are willing to mute, block, or unfollow the sender. Again, no real surprise there. Nield describes how to use Twitter Circle on both mobile and desktop, complete with screenshots, so interested readers can see the write-up for those details.
Cynthia Murrell, September 30, 2022
Microsoft Viva: Live to Work, Work to Live
September 29, 2022
I read about a weird Microsoft innovation. No, it’s not about security. No, it’s not about getting a printer to work in Windows 11. No, it’s not about the bloat in Microsoft Edge. And — at least not yet — it’s not about the wild and extremely wonderful world of Microsoft Teams.
The title of the article in Computerworld is “Microsoft Viva Enhancements Address Employee Disconnect in Hybrid Work Environments.” After explaining why humans invented an office or factory to which employees went to complete tasks, the author provides to illustrate why the work from home approach is not a productivity home run. Employees like to get paid and fiddle around. Work is often hard. (I did spot one Italian government employee sitting in a one room office in Sienna doing absolutely nothing. I checked on the fellow three times over three days. Nothing. No visitors. No phone buzzing. Not even a computer in site. Now that’s a reliable worker… doing nothing with style.)
Let’s get to the Microsoft inventions, shall we?
The product/service is Microsoft Viva and it has the usual Redmond touch. There is Viva Pulse and there is Viva Amplify.
What’s up?
According to the write up:
Viva Pulse is designed to enable managers and team leaders to seek regular and confidential feedback on their team’s experience, using smart templates and research-backed questions to help managers pinpoint what’s working well, where to focus, and what actions could be undertaken to address team needs.
And next up:
Viva Amplify is meant to improve communication between leaders and employees. The app centralizes communications campaigns, offers writing guidance to improve message resonance, enables publishing across multiple channels and distribution groups in Microsoft 365, and provides metrics for improvement.
Other extensions may be Viva Answers, Viva Leadership Corner, Viva Engage, and my personal favorite People in Viva.
These products include Microsoft smart software which will perform such managerial magic as answer employee questions. Also the systems will put “collective knowledge to work for all employees.” (I love categorical affirmatives, don’t you. So universal.) There will be a Leadership Corner where employees “can interact directly with leadership, share ideas and perspectives, participate in organization initiatives, and more.”
Okay, I can’t summarize any more.
My take on this is that Microsoft got a group of 20 somethings together, possibly in a coffee shop, and asked them to conjure up a way for employees working on a project in their jammies to communicate. The result is Viva, and it will be pitched by certified partners to big customers as a productivity enhancement tool. If I were trying to sell this to a government agency, I would say, “This is an umbrella under which Teams can operate. Synergy. Shazam! Oh, the first year is free when you renew your existing Microsoft licenses.”
My concern is that the:
- Viva construct will expand the attack service for bad actors
- The numerous moving parts will not move in the way users expect
- Managers will find learning the constantly updating Viva components time consuming and just go walk to phone calls and managing by walking around.
Great innovation? Hardly. To Microsoft, however, this is the equivalent to discovering a new thing to sell and distract people from some of Microsoft’s more interesting issues. Example: Security challenges.
Stephen E Arnold, September 29, 2022
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