The Android Ecosystem: A Road with One Less Toll Booth?
August 15, 2011
I read “Motorola’s Sanjay Jha Openly Admits They Plan to Collect IP Royalties from Other Android Makers.” I am reasonably confident that the Googlers knew there would be various monetization plays coalescing around the “free” Android operating system. (I almost type “free and open”, but that would be a bit of a misstatement.) Microsoft is charging Android bounties and collecting. One of the goslings told me that Microsoft is making more from Android bounties than from Windows Phone 7, a fact which I doubt. Now Motorola wants to slap another booth on the Android super highway. Here’s a passage that strikes me as important:
If Google loses in this fight, Android vendors might have to pay $60 per device in patent fees eventually. It’s no wonder many people are worried about Android right now. Amidst this Android patent insecurity, Motorola recently started touting the strength of its IP portfolio. Nothing surprising here. Motorola is one of the oldest players, with one of the strongest patent portfolios in the industry.
Google lose? That’s a thought I had not entertained. If the fees become sufficiently burdensome, then maybe the iPhone and iOS start to look more attractive. Nah, Google has anticipated this and has a response.
What was the response? Google made headlines with its “we don’t have much choice” acquisition of Motorola Mobility. You can read about the deal in the Official Google Blog and then work through the punditry at your leisure.
I selected one write up as representative of the thinking in the Silicon Valley world of business analysis: “Google’s $12.5 Billion Motorola Mobility Bet: 6 Reasons Why It Makes Sense.” Of the six reasons, one resonated with me–patents. The other five sounded off key.
My take is pretty simple. Google missed on the Nortel patent deal. Tactical cuteness backfired and the price tag jumped to $12.5 billion which is Warren Buffet territory. I think the scale is interesting but lacks the type of Buffet genius for big deals.
So what?
Google’s quick and easy “open source” play is now changing direction. There are even more interesting implications for mobile outfits who may be thinking about how to create a mobile operating system with a unique fingerprint. The fragmentation which Google insists does not pose a challenge may also check its technology road map.
Motorola does not arrive fresh and sweet like an ear of spring corn in Illinois. Motorola brings some genetically modified stuff to the table along with partners, management challenges, litigation, and financial challenges. Google remake Libertyville, Illinois, or will Libertyville, Illinois, do what Illinois does best?
Think Motorola’s late entrance into digital phones. Think the Illinois debt. Think about Illinois politics. Oh, think about Illinois’ track record in generating winners in the digital economy. Think about buying a company like Motorola Mobility because of the options, this one was the best of the crop.
I am thinking and I hazard the guess that Google will be thinking as well. My final thought is that the final stage of the Microsoftization of Google is now underway.
Stephen E Arnold, August 15, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com, publishers of The New Landscape of Enterprise Search
FTC Narrows Focus in Google Investigation
August 15, 2011
The US Federal Trade Commission is moving forward with its Google investigation. The Wall Street Journal announces, “FTC Sharpens Google Probe.” Sounds painful.
The agency is honing in on certain areas of the company’s operations, like the lucrative Android and Web search services. Writers Thomas Catan and Amir Efrati report that, according to their sources, FTC lawyers:
have been asking whether Google prevents smartphone manufacturers that use its Android operating system from using competitors’ services, these people said. They also have inquired whether Google grants preferential placement on its website to its own products. . . . And they’re looking into allegations that Google unfairly takes information collected by rivals, such as reviews of local businesses, to use on its own specialized site and then demotes the rivals’ services in its search results, the people said.
Some weighty charges, all of which Google denies. The company suggests investigations here and abroad are spurred by competitors threatened by its legitimate success. Even so, it has modified some of its behavior in response to the concerns.
It’s still early in the process. Along the way, the investigation is likely to be subject to the good old fashioned American way of sophisticated lobbying.
Some Googzilla loving pundits assert that Google will escape with little more than a slap on the claw. Our view is that whenever the wheels of justice turn, the consequences can be surprising. Consider President Obama’s health care initiative and the fun loving Atlanta judge. Quite a surprise.
For pundits with little first hand experience with a Federal inquiry, uttering reassurances is such a nifty way to coo to the Google.
Cynthia Murrell August 14, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com, publishers of The New Landscape of Enterprise Search
The App Approach: A Dead End?
August 11, 2011
From the amazing statements department. Flash. Venture Beat’s “Nokia Exec: Android and iPhone Focus on the App Is “Outdated” caught my attention. For this write up, let;s assume the fellow is dead wrong. I am okay with headlines written for Bing and Google indexing subsystems. I am also okay with wild and crazy statements from cash strapped azure chip consultants, search vendors worried about making the next payment on the CEO’s company car, and unemployed English majors explaining that they are really social media experts. In an economic depression, words are worthless. When one has nothing to lose, is the approach “Go for broke?’
The assertion reported by Venture Beat’s Mobile Beat online publication was quite interesting. First, Nokia is not hitting any financial home runs. Say what you will about Apple, the outfit has a nifty balance sheet. Even the Google which is a giant ad system is able to “give away” a mobile operating system and make big waves. One example is the factoid that hundreds of thousands of Android-based devices are sold every time I check the weather in Harrod’s Creek.
A happy quack to http://zekjevets.blogspot.com/2010/02/alternative-racism.html
Here’s the statement that snagged me. (This is a longer quote than we normally use, but I want to get the context right. Please, navigate to the Venture Beat original for the full story. Also, note that I have put in bold face the items upon which I wish to comment.)
Nokia’s future phones will merge the latest Microsoft Windows Phone software based on the Mango update (which Weber said has had great reviews) with Nokia’s hardware, which he said boasts reliability and phone call quality. Weber cited state-of-the-art imaging technology and battery performance as areas Nokia phones would excel in. Weber also said Nokia may beat competitors on pricing, thanks to the company’s significant global reach, which gives it economies of scale. Moreover, Weber said the company will launch its superphone portfolio with a focus on U.S. market, because he said winning in the U.S. market is what it takes to win globally. He also confirmed that Nokia will back the launch with the company’s largest marketing effort to date, though wouldn’t go into specifics. Weber called Android and the iOS phone platforms “outdated.” While Apple’s iPhone, and its underlying iOS operating system, set the standard for a modern user interface with “pinch and zoom,” Weber conceded, it also forces people to download multiple applications which they then have to navigate between. There’s a lot of touching involved as you press icons or buttons to activate application features. Android essentially “commoditized” this approach, Weber said.
Whew. Let me do an addled goose style run down.
- Reliability and call quality. In my experience the phone is only part of the reliability and call quality equation. There are networks involved. I have worked throughout the world and reliability and call quality has more to do with where I am than the handset. In the arctic circle my Treo 650 worked like a champ. In the hollow near my pond, I can’t get a coherent squawk from my BlackBerry. So how’s Nokia going to fix this? Nokia can’t. Baloney.
- Imaging and battery performance. Whoa, horsey. Putting a better camera in a phone is a question of economics and technical tradeoffs. The battery issue is a big deal. As crazy as Research in Motion’s present management set up is, the company does have good battery technology as does Apple. Nokia? Better get that pony aimed at the battery corral is my advice.
Are Panda and Android Influencing One Another?
August 5, 2011
I admit that the juxtaposition of the Panda initiative to improve Google search results and Android mobile operating system juggernaut are an odd couple. What gave me the idea was the article “Windows Phone Revenue “Abysmal”, Still Better Than Android.” The article explains that the Windows Phone is not generating a great deal of revenue in terms of Microsoft’s cash throughput. Here’s the passage that caught my attention:
Nick Eaton of the Seattle PI calls this “abysmal” and depending on how you look at it, perhaps. Compared to Xbox, sure. Compared to Android? Not so much. After all, Google makes $0 from Android sales, though they do take in some money through the limited advertising on the phone. In that sense, making money off of the OS is not Google’s goal, but market saturation is. The same is the same for Microsoft at this point. While they do charge for licenses, it’s not exactly an area of revenue for them, nor are they banking on it (pun alert). However, neither was Xbox which took 5 years to turn a profit (and after losing billions). [Emphasis added.]
My thought is that Panda may be a significant step because the changes are designed to keep traditional online Web ad revenues pumping cash. My hunch is that my juxtapositions are often off the bull’s eye. On the other hand, my idea is anchored in what seems to be a simple assertion in the Phone Revenue Abysmal write up.
I am now at lunch (August 1, 2011) and here are the three points from the goslings (my code work for my colleagues):
- Panda and Android are not related. Google will monetize Android at some point in the future.
- Panda is more important as a signal that Google has work to do with its core relevance method.
- Google has to get more money from Panda because Android and other mobile devices forces a different approach to search.
I am going to stick with the revenue issue and I like the point about changing search behavior. Stay tuned.
Stephen E Arnold, August 5, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com, publishers of The New Landscape of Enterprise Search
Why Patents Are the Tech Homecoming King and Queen
July 9, 2011
Patents are king because they are content. Patents are queen because they have value. Put the two together and you have a high stakes game between Oracle and Google. I just read “Oracle Win Would Strain Android Growth.” I agree.
Android is an interesting business because it is decidedly non-Googley. Following in the path worn by Treo and Apple is not too tough conceptually. I knew how to get from my home to my grade school without much mental effort. So we have a me-too play.
The article adds some spice to my view with this passage:
If Oracle wins the lawsuit that it brought against the software giant, the consequences for Google and the entire Android market could be dire, analysts say. Oracle likely won’t settle for a lump payment but instead will want a cut of each phone sold. That added cost changes the economics for handset makers such that many will take a second look at their commitments to the Android platform. While manufacturers are unlikely to abandon Android for a couple dollars per handset, they might begin to find other platforms, like Windows Phone, more attractive and begin to reduce the number of Android phones they make in favor of other platforms.
So a free mobile OS adds some costs. Let’s assume that the Oracle Google legal hassle fizzles out and neither side gets what it wants. Then what?
First, Oracle is not likely to give up. So Google is going to be looking at more slogging through the courts as Oracle grinds through every patent in its portfolio to find the garlic ball that drives away the Mountain View vampire.
Second, Microsoft is going to keep finding ways to slap fees on anyone using an Android device. This way of making money has to be more satisfying that punching out Zune MP3 players and Microsoft home wireless hardware that doesn’t work very well.
Third, Google is going to have to find a way to cope with the margins that Apple is managing to squeeze from its gizmos. Apple may not sell many units, but it sure does get a lot of dough from what it does sell.
Fourth, with open source Android in the clammy R&D facilities in far off places, I think there will be some “partners” who go Android without involving the Google. Whatever fragmentation exists in the Google “an Android in every pocket” approach will look like a sheet of Inconel 235 compared to off the reservation Android devices.
So what’s the deal with patents? The battle for the next MS DOS and Windows type franchise is going to be fought over intellectual property. Bottom line: If you want to double date to the mobile prom, go with the king and queen: Patents.
Here’s the dilemma that Google must resolve:
However, Oracle may not be alone in asking OEMs to pay to use technology in Android. Microsoft, which also says it has technology used in Android, has announced licensing deals for technology in Android devices with HTC and a few other smaller names. It is also reportedly asking Samsung for $15 per handset for Android phones. While Microsoft could find a healthy revenue stream from Android, it most likely would instead prefer success of its own Windows Phone platform, which offers more potential for revenue from services. That means Microsoft doesn’t have the incentive Oracle does to keep the Android licensing fee affordable for OEMs.
The Android OS is free from Google which needs the “advertising tax.” But companies like Oracle and Microsoft will work to get dough from each Android gizmo sold, which may make the free Android OS too expensive for some. With a free and semi open source OS floating around, variants may emerge, producing a fragmented mess for customers. How will Google manage this situation? Maybe controlled chaos will be the only Googley attribute of a business sector that is definitely not algorithmic in nature?
Stephen E Arnold, July 9, 2011
I had hoped to get this write up sponsored by the world’s leader in agile and scalable patent research, ArticleOnePartners.com. I find the firm’s service quite useful for patent research.
Google Voice Search is Here
July 8, 2011
First reading fell to audio and video. Now typing may give way to talking a search query. In the roar about Google +1, we can’t overlook Google voice search. As Kelly Clay at LockerGnome’s News and Views declares, “Google’s Voice Search Opens the Door to New Possibilities.” Naturally, the ability to search without typing is the main draw. We learned:
“Google’s Voice Search is a fun new way for Google Chrome users to search for just about anything using voice commands. . . . The Google Voice Search feature works by simply clicking the microphone next to the text input box on Google.com (which only appears in Chrome at the moment) and speaking your search.”
A long-awaited tool, and useful– as long as one is in a setting where talking is okay.
Clay seems most excited, though, about the developers who are running with this advance in new directions. For example, BreakfastNewYork has built The Verbalizer, an open source dev board that allows one to introduce a physical component to the voice searches. It looks like lots of fun—see the video embedded in the article or at the Verbalizer page. I don’t yet see much in the way of practical application with such experiments, but maybe someone will prove me wrong.
Cynthia Murrell July 8, 2011
You can read more about enterprise search and retrieval in The New Landscape of Enterprise Search, published by Pandia in Oslo, Norway, in June 2011.
Protected: Mavention SharePoint Site Checker Guarantees Top Quality
July 7, 2011
Amazon and RIM: Sour Grapes Day and Its Whines
June 30, 2011
Long day for the goose. Most folks heading toward 67 do the golf thing, maybe drink a lunch, or hang out at the mall and check out the walkers. Not me. I was checking out the latest in news and info on the rapidly deteriorating Internet. It is not just the lousy throughput here in Harrod’s Creek, it is the increase in the whine volume. Yep, sour grapes make whine.
The first example is the anonymous letter about the management woes at Research in Motion. Based in Waterloo, the BlackBerry whine maker criticized policies, procedures, innovation, and the furniture. Yep, griping about the office decorations will fix up the BlackBerry orchard in a nonce. You will want to read “Open Letter to BlackBerry Bosses: Senior RIM Exec Tells All as Company Crumbles around Him.” There are some great lines in the letter. The passage I found most amusing was:
Let’s obsess about what is best for the end user. We often make product decisions based on strategic alignment, partner requests or even legal advice — the end user doesn’t care. We simply have to admit that Apple is nailing this and it is one of the reasons they have people lining up overnight at stores around the world, and products sold out for months. These people aren’t hypnotized zombies, they simply love beautifully designed products that are user centric and work how they are supposed to work. Android has a major weakness — it will always lack the simplicity and elegance that comes with end-to-end device software, middleware and hardware control. We really have a great opportunity to build something new and “uniquely BlackBerry” with the QNX platform. Let’s start an internal innovation revival with teams focused on what users will love instead of chasing “feature parity” and feature differentiation for no good reason (Adobe Flash being a major example). When was the last time we pushed out a significant new experience or feature that wasn’t already on other platforms? Rather than constantly mocking iPhone and Android, we should encourage key decision makers across the board to use these products as their primary device for a week or so at a time — yes, on Exchange! This way we can understand why our users are switching and get inspiration as to how we can build our next-gen products even better! It’s incomprehensible that our top software engineers and executives aren’t using or deeply familiar with our competitor’s products.
The snippet has some interesting assertions. Let me squeeze those grapes:
- RIM takes guidance from partners and lawyers. Hey, partners and lawyers know what to do. Partners resell and lawyers bill by the hour. A sharp outfit like RIM not be able to climb much higher up the innovation jungle gym unless it pays more attention to partners and lawyers. RIM is on the right track.
- Android has “a weakness.” That is one reason why the whiner is not working at Google. Google is the top dog. Android. Weakness. Oxymoron.
- Features. Look. Features made Microsoft Word the outstanding product it is. I find the intelligent reformatting, the wonderful numbering function, the intuitive placement of images, and the lightning fast response regardless of computing platform nearly perfect. RIM needs to work harder to add complex functionality. Stop whining and starting adding more icons, earthworm menus, and ever-so-precise trackball ALT key thingies.
Now read “An Open Letter To Jeff Bezos On Terminating The Amazon Affiliate Program In California.” Like the high pitched scree of the RIM letter, this epistle makes my ear drums bleed and my frontal lobes throb throb throb. The issue is that a high traffic Web site gets a piece of the action, a commission, a kick back, a bounty, a beak dip, or a cut of what ever a visitor to an affiliate site spends on Amazon. The world’s smartest man may struggle with uptime for its blend of open source and proprietary software for webby services things, but TWSM, aka Jeff Bezos, knows how to make money. Here’s a passage I found amusing:
Not only are you [The World’s Smartest Man] sucking purchases (and thus potentially jobs) out of my state and undermining those retailers, but you’re also not letting the state earn off the sales tax like those retailers who actually are based here do. That makes me feel really good as a Californian.
Why should Amazon pay sales tax?
Amazon is a sort of virtual company. It does not drive on the roads of California too often. It does not use the California school or sewer systems all that much, and it does not provide fire protection for TWSM’s Seattle area properties. Why pay for what you do not use, do not need, and do not acknowledge as being relevant to the Amazon implementation of the Walton retail vision built of bits, not bricks?
So what’s with the whining about Amazon’s doing what a company is supposed to do in post crash America? Any nibbling at the edges of Amazon’s revenue is bad. What is bad for Amazon is bad for Mr. Bezos. Mr. Bezos wants his way in a manner similar to other tech titans’ perception of right and proper behavior. This whiner wants an entity in America to be fair. Get with the program. Join Prime. Suck it up and get back to search engine optimization, a field of great value and promise.
So there you have it. Two whines. If I drank, I suppose I could slurp some whine too. I am more of a commenter and from a goose pond at that. These two whiners are muddying the waters of the way business is conducted in the US today. Get with the program and put a stopper in the whine bottle, please. Honk.
Stephen E Arnold, July 1, 2011
Stephen E Arnold, described by super real news person Ken Auletta as gruff is the author of the New Landscape of Search, published by Pandia in Oslo, Norway. The monograph is not available for the BlackBerry (I cannot read my screen’s type. Too small.) and not available through Amazon either. I often wonder why I bother to write candid and objective analyses of enterprise search systems. Whining is where it is at for today.
The GOOG MSFT User Experience
June 23, 2011
One of the goslings asked me to take a quick look at US7966638, “ Interactive Media Display across Devices.” Here’s the abstract:
A computer-implemented method includes identifying a computer-based portable program module, automatically altering code in the portable program module to permit display of the module on a television-based display so that the displayed module has a substantially similar appearance on the television-based display as on a computer display, and providing the altered code for execution on a processor connected to a television-based display.
The question today at lunch is, “How likely is it that Google will be on the same Windows 8 interface bicycle?”
My view: Google has struggled to make use of its plethora of interesting inventions. Assume this invention moves to the “one interface” across any of a user’s devices or veers in another direction. Will Google be forced to buy a company that has been able to connect the dots? The example of which I am thinking is the Sage TV buy. The issue may be internal communication about available technology regardless of the team originating the system and method.
Stephen E Arnold, June 23, 2011
From the leader in next-generation analysis of search and content processing, Beyond Search.
Nifty New Mobile Search App
June 20, 2011
Mashable reports, “Mobile Search Startup Do@ Queries Apps Instead of the Web.” Is this the beginning of the end for AltaVista.com style search? Perhaps, especially as PCs go the way of the VCR.
Here’s how Do@ works:
[On one’s mobile device,] the user types in a keyword, subject or topic, including movies, music, foods, products and more. The app then recognizes what categories the keyword fits into. . . . Once you tap the query that fits your needs, Do@ loads your results, which will appear as mobile web apps from a carefully curated selection of the best publishers and app developers. You can quickly swipe from one app with relevant content to the next until you spot the exact tidbit of information or functionality you seek. In addition to predictable categories like movies, news, and shopping, Do@ is introducing some innovative classifications of their own, like @near.me and @play.online.
In my opinion, this type of system simplify the search process. Instead of wrestling with quotes, plus and minus signs, and exacting turns of phrase, you just type the most basic of subjects and select the appropriate realm. Very convenient. Both the article and the Do@ site contain a demonstration video that illustrates the process well.
My only concern: what will we lose as we move away from the (comparatively) free-flowing Web-wide search to a “curated” set of options?
Cynthia Murrell June 20, 2011
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, the resource for enterprise search information and current news about data fusion
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
