A Signal That Money People Are Really Worried about AI Payoffs
July 8, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
“AI’s $600B Question” is an interesting signal. The subtitle for the article is the pitch that sent my signal processor crazy: The AI bubble is reaching a tipping point. Navigating what comes next will be essential.”
Executives on a thrill ride seem to be questioning the wisdom of hopping on the roller coaster. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough.
When money people output information that raises a question, something is happening. When the payoff is nailed, the financial types think about yachts, Bugatti’s, and getting quoted in the Financial Times. Doubts are raised because of these headline items: AI and $600 billion.
The write up says:
A huge amount of economic value is going to be created by AI. Company builders focused on delivering value to end users will be rewarded handsomely. We are living through what has the potential to be a generation-defining technology wave. Companies like Nvidia deserve enormous credit for the role they’ve played in enabling this transition, and are likely to play a critical role in the ecosystem for a long time to come. Speculative frenzies are part of technology, and so they are not something to be afraid of.
If I understand this money talk, a big time outfit is directly addressing fears that AI won’t generate enough cash to pay its bills and make the investors a bundle of money. If the AI frenzy was on the Money Train Express, why raise questions and provide information about the tough-to-control costs for making AI knock off the hallucination, the product recalls, the lawsuits, and the growing number of AI projects which just don’t work?
The fact of the article’s existence makes it clear to me that some folks are indeed worried. Does the write up reassure those with big bucks on the line? Does the write up encourage investors to pump more money into a new AI start up? Does the write up convert tests into long-term contracts with the big AI providers?
Nope, nope, and nope.
But here’s the unnerving part of the essay:
In reality, the road ahead is going to be a long one. It will have ups and downs. But almost certainly it will be worthwhile.
Translation: We will take your money and invest it. Just buckle up, butter cup. The ride on this roller coaster may end with the expensive cart hurtling from the track to the asphalt below. But don’t worry about us venture types. We will surf on churn and the flows of money. Others? Not so much.
Stephen E Arnold, July 8, 2024
Googzilla, Man Up, Please
July 8, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I read a couple of “real” news stories about Google and its green earth / save the whales policies in the age of smart software. The first write up is okay and not to exciting for a critical thinker wearing dinoskin. “The Morning After: Google’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climbed Nearly 50 Percent in Five Years Due to AI” states what seems to be a PR-massaged write up. Consider this passage:
According to the report, Google said it expects its total greenhouse gas emissions to rise “before dropping toward our absolute emissions reduction target,” without explaining what would cause this drop.
Yep, no explanation. A PR win.
The BBC published “AI Drives 48% Increase in Google Emissions.” That write up states:
Google says about two thirds of its energy is derived from carbon-free sources.
Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough.
Neither these two articles nor the others I scanned focused on one key fact about Google’s saying green and driving snail darters to their fate. Google’s leadership team did not plan its energy strategy. In fact, my hunch is that no one paid any attention to how much energy Google’s AI activities were sucking down. Once the company shifted into Code Red or whatever consulting term craziness it used to label its frenetic response to the Microsoft OpenAI tie up, absolutely zero attention was directed toward the few big eyed tunas which might be taking their last dip.
Several observations:
- PR speak and green talk are like many assurances emitted by the Google. Talk is not action.
- The management processes at Google are disconnected from what happens when the wonky Code Red light flashes and the siren howls at midnight. Shouldn’t management be connected when the Tapanuli Orangutang could soon be facing the Big Ape in the sky?
- The AI energy consumption is not a result of AI. The energy consumption is a result of Googlers who do what’s necessary to respond to smart software. Step on the gas. Yeah, go fast. Endanger the Amur leopard.
Net net: Hey, Google, stand up and say, “My leadership team is responsible for the energy we consume.” Don’t blame your up-in-flames “green” initiative on software you invented. How about less PR and more focus on engineering more efficient data center and cloud operations? I know PR talk is easier, but buckle up, butter cup.
Stephen E Arnold, July 8, 2024
Happy Fourth of July Says Microsoft to Some Employees
July 8, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
I read “Microsoft Lays Off Employees in New Round of Cuts.” The write up reports:
Microsoft conducted another round of layoffs this week in the latest workforce reduction implemented by the Redmond tech giant this year… Posts on LinkedIn from impacted employees show the cuts affecting employees in product and program management roles.
I wonder if some of those Softies were working on security (the new Job One at Microsoft) or the brilliantly conceived and orchestrated Recall “solution.”
The write up explains or articulates an apologia too:
The cutbacks come as Microsoft tries to maintain its profit margins amid heavier capital spending, which is designed to provide the cloud infrastructure needed to train and deploy the models that power AI applications.
Several observations:
- A sure-fire way to solve personnel and some types of financial issues is identifying employees, whipping up some criteria-based dot points, and telling the folks, “Good news. You can find your future elsewhere.”
- Dumping people calls attention to management’s failure to keep staff and tasks aligned. Based on security and reliability issues Microsoft evidences, the company is too large to know what color sock is on each foot.
- Microsoft faces a challenge, and it is not AI. With more functions working in a browser, perhaps fed up individuals and organizations will re-visit Linux as an alternative to Microsoft’s products and services?
Net net: Maybe firing the security professionals and those responsible for updates which kill Windows machines is a great idea?
Stephen E Arnold, July 8, 2024
Doom Scrolling Fixed by Watching Cheers Re-Runs
July 5, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I spotted an article which provided a new way to think about lying on a sofa watching reruns of “Cheers.” The estimable online news resource YourTango: Revolutionizing Your Relationships published “Man Admits he Uses TV to Heal His Brain from Endless Short-Form Content. And Experts Agree He’s onto Something.” Amazing. The vast wasteland of Newton Minnow has morphed into a brain healing solution. Does this sound like craziness? (I must admit the assertion seems wacky to me.) Many years ago in Washington, DC, there was a sports announcer who would say in a loud voice while on air, “Let’s go to the videotape.” Well, gentle reader, let’s go to the YourTango “real” news article.
Will some of those mobile addicts and doom scrolling lovers take the suggestions of the YouTango article? Unlikely. The fellow with lung cancer continues to fiddle around, ignoring the No Smoking sign. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. How’s that Windows 11 update going?
The write up states:
A Gen Z man said he uses TV to ‘unfry’ his brain from endless short-form content — ‘Maybe I’ll fix the damage.’ It all feels so incredibly ironic that this young man — and thousands of other Gen Zers and millennials online — are using TV as therapy.
The individual who discovered this therapeutic use of OTA and YouTubeTV-type TV asserts:
I’m trying to unfry my brain from this short-form destruction.”
I admit. I like the phrase “short-form destruction.”
The write up includes this statement:
Not only is it keeping people from reading books, watching movies, and engaging in conversation, but it is also impacting their ability to maintain healthy relationships, both personal and professional. The dopamine release resulting from watching short-form content is why people become addicted to or, at the very least, highly attached to their screens and devices.
My hunch is that YourTango is not an online publication intended for those who regularly read the Atlantic and New Yorker magazines. That’s what makes these statement compelling. An online service for a specific demographic known to paw their mobile devices a thousand times or more each day is calling attention to a “problem.”
Now YourTango’s write up veers into the best way to teach. The write up states:
For young minds, especially kids in preschool and kindergarten, excessive screen time isn’t healthy. Their minds are yearning for connection, mobility, and education, and substituting iPad time or TV time isn’t fulfilling that need. However, for teenagers and adults in their 20s and 30s, the negative effects of too much screen time can be combated with a more balanced lifestyle. Utilizing long-form content like movies, books, and even a YouTube video could help improve cognitive ability and concentration.
The idea that watching a “YouTube video” can undo what flowing social media has done in the last 20 years is amusing to me. Really. To remediate the TikTok-type of mental hammering, one should watch a 10 minute video about the Harsh Trust of Big Automotive YouTube Channels. Does that sound effective?
Let’s look at the final paragraph in the “report”:
If you can’t read a book without checking your phone, catch a film without dozing off, or hold a conversation on a first date without allowing your mind to wander, consider some new habits that help to train your brain — even if it’s watching TV.
I love that “even if it’s watching TV.”
Net net: I lost attention after reading the first few words of the write up. I am now going to recognize my problem and watch a YouTube video called ”Dubai Amazing Dubai Mall. Burj Khalifa, City Center Walking Tour.” I feel less flawed just reading the same word twice in the YouTube video’s title. Yes. Amazing.
Stephen E Arnold, July 5, 2024
AI: Hurtful and Unfair. Obviously, Yes
July 5, 2024
It will be years before AI is “smart” enough to entirely replace humans, but it’s in the immediate future. The problem with current AI is that they’re stupid. They don’t know how to do anything unless they’re trained on huge datasets. These datasets contain the hard, copyrighted, trademarked, proprietary, etc. work of individuals. These people don’t want their work used to train AI without their permission, much less replace them. Futurism shares that even AI engineers are worried about their creations, “Video Shows OpenAI Admitting It’s ‘Deeply Unfair’ To ‘Build AI And Take Everyone’s Job Away.”
The interview with an AI software engineer’s admission of guilt originally appeared in The Atlantic, but their morality is quickly covered by their apathy. Brian Wu is the engineer in question. He feels about making jobs obsolete, but he makes an observation that happens with progress and new technology: things change and that is inevitable:
“It won’t be all bad news, he suggests, because people will get to ‘think about what to do in a world where labor is obsolete.’
But as he goes on, Wu sounds more and more unconvinced by his own words, as if he’s already surrendered himself to the inevitability of this dystopian AI future.
‘I don’t know,’ he said. ‘Raise awareness, get governments to care, get other people to care.’ A long pause. ‘Yeah. Or join us and have one of the few remaining jobs. I don’t know. It’s rough.’”
Wu’s colleague Daniel Kokotajlo believes human will invent an all-knowing artificial general intelligence (AGI). The AGI will create wealth and it won’t be distributed evenly, but all humans will be rich. Kokotaljo then delves into the typical science-fiction story about a super AI becoming evil and turning against humanity. The AI engineers, however, aren’t concerned with the moral ambiguity of AI. They want to invent, continuing building wealth, and are hellbent on doing it no matter the consequences. It’s pure motivation but also narcissism and entitlement.
Whitney Grace, July 5, 2024
Smart Software and Knowledge Skills: Nothing to Worry About. Nothing.
July 5, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
I read an article in Bang Premier (an estimable online publication with which I had no prior knowledge). It is now a “fave of the week.” The story “University Researchers Reveal They Fooled Professors by Submitting AI Exam Answers” was one of those experimental results which caused me to chuckle. I like to keep track of sources of entertaining AI information.
A doctor and his surgical team used smart software to ace their medical training. Now a patient learns that the AI system does not have the information needed to perform life-saving surgery. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough.
The Bang Premier article reports:
Researchers at the University of Reading have revealed they successfully fooled their professors by submitting AI-generated exam answers. Their responses went totally undetected and outperformed those of real students, a new study has shown.
Is anyone surprised?
The write up noted:
Dr Peter Scarfe, an associate professor at Reading’s school of psychology and clinical language sciences, said about the AI exams study: “Our research shows it is of international importance to understand how AI will affect the integrity of educational assessments. “We won’t necessarily go back fully to handwritten exams, but the global education sector will need to evolve in the face of AI.”
But the knee slapper is this statement in the write up:
In the study’s endnotes, the authors suggested they might have used AI to prepare and write the research. They stated: “Would you consider it ‘cheating’? If you did consider it ‘cheating’ but we denied using GPT-4 (or any other AI), how would you attempt to prove we were lying?” A spokesperson for Reading confirmed to The Guardian the study was “definitely done by humans”.
The researchers may not have used AI to create their report, but is it possible that some of the researchers thought about this approach?
Generative AI software seems to have hit a plateau for technology, financial, or training issues. Perhaps those who are trying to design a smart system to identify bogus images, machine-produced text and synthetic data, and nifty videos which often look like “real” TikTok-type creations will catch up? But if the AI innovators continue to refine their systems, the “AI identifier” software is effectively in a game of cat-and-mouse. Reacting to smart software means that existing identifiers will be blind to the new systems’ outputs.
The goal is a noble one, but the advantage goes to the AI companies, particularly those who want to go fast and break things. Academics get some benefit. New studies will be needed to determine how much fakery goes undetected. Will a surgeon who used AI to get his or her degree be able to handle a tricky operation and get the post-op drugs right?
Sure. No worries. Some might not think this is a laughing matter. Hey, it’s AI. It is A-Okay.
Stephen E Arnold, July 5, 2024
Microsoft Recall Continues to Concern UK Regulators
July 4, 2024
A “feature” of the upcoming Microsoft Copilot+, dubbed Recall, looks like a giant, built-in security risk. Many devices already harbor software that can hunt through one’s files, photos, emails, and browsing history. Recall intrudes further by also taking and storing a screenshot every few seconds. Wait, what? That is what the British Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) is asking. The BBC reports, “UK Watchdog Looking into Microsoft AI Taking Screenshots.”
Microsoft asserts users have control and that the data Recall snags is protected. But the company’s pretty words are not enough to convince the ICO. The agency is grilling Microsoft about the details and will presumably update us when it knows more. Meanwhile, journalist Imran Rahman-Jones asked experts about Recall’s ramifications. He writes:
“Jen Caltrider, who leads a privacy team at Mozilla, suggested the plans meant someone who knew your password could now access your history in more detail. ‘[This includes] law enforcement court orders, or even from Microsoft if they change their mind about keeping all this content local and not using it for targeted advertising or training their AIs down the line,’ she said. According to Microsoft, Recall will not moderate or remove information from screenshots which contain passwords or financial account information. ‘That data may be in snapshots that are stored on your device, especially when sites do not follow standard internet protocols like cloaking password entry,’ said Ms. Caltrider. ‘I wouldn’t want to use a computer running Recall to do anything I wouldn’t do in front of a busload of strangers. ‘That means no more logging into financial accounts, looking up sensitive health information, asking embarrassing questions, or even looking up information about a domestic violence shelter, reproductive health clinic, or immigration lawyer.’”
Calling Recall a privacy nightmare, AI and privacy adviser Dr Kris Shrishak notes just knowing one’s device is constantly taking screenshots will have a chilling effect on users. Microsoft appears to have “pulled” the service. But data and privacy expert Daniel Tozer made a couple more points: How will a company feel if a worker’s Copilot snaps a picture of their proprietary or confidential information? Will anyone whose likeness appears in video chat or a photo be asked for consent before the screenshot is taken? Our guess—not unless it is forced to.
Cynthia Murrell, July 4, 2024
Google YouTube: The Enhanced Turtle Walk?
July 4, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
I like to figure out how a leadership team addresses issues lower on the priority list. Some outfits talk a good game when a problem arises. I typically think of this as a Microsoft-type response. Security is job one. Then there’s Recall and the weird de-release of a Windows 11 update. But stuff is happening.
A leadership team decides to lead my moving even more slowly, possibly not at all. Turtles know how to win by putting one claw in front of another…. just slowly. Thanks, MSFT Copilot.
Then there are outfits who just ignore everything. I think of this as the Boeing-type of approach to difficult situations. Doors fall off, astronauts are stranded, and the FAA does its government is run like a business thing. But can a cash-strapped airline ground jets from a single manufacturer when the company’s jets come from one manufacturer. The jets keep flying, the astronauts are really not stranded yet, and the government runs like a business.
Google does not fit into either category. I read “Two Years after an Open Letter to YouTube, Fact-Checkers Remain Dissatisfied with the Platform’s Inaction.” The write up describes what Google YouTube to do a better job at fact checking the videos it hoses to people and kids worldwide:
Two years ago, fact-checkers from all over the world signed an open letter to YouTube with four solutions for reducing disinformation and misinformation on the platform. As they convened this year at GlobalFact 11, the world’s largest annual fact-checking summit, fact-checkers agreed there has been no meaningful change.
This suggests that Google is less dynamic than a government agency and definitely not doing the yip yap thing associated with Microsoft-type outfits. I find this interesting.
The [YouTube] channel continued to publish livestreams with falsehoods and racked up hundreds of thousands of views, Kamath [the founder of Newschecker] said.
Google YouTube is a global resource. The write up says:
When YouTube does present solutions, it focuses on English and doesn’t give a timeline for applying it to other languages, [Lupa CEO Natália] Leal said.
The turtle play perhaps?
The big assertion in the article in my opinion is:
[The] system is ‘loaded against fact-checkers’
Okay, let’s summarize. At one end of the leadership spectrum we have the talkers and go slow or do nothing. At the other end of the spectrum we have the leaders who don’t talk and allegedly retaliate when someone does talk with the events taking place under the watchful eye of US government regulators.
The Google YouTube method involves several leadership practices:
- Pretend avoidance. Google did not attend the fact checking conference. This is the ostrich principle I think.
- Go really slow. Two years with minimal action to remove inaccurate videos.
- Don’t talk.
My hypothesis is that Google can’t be bothered. It has other issues demanding its leadership time.
Net net: Are inaccurate videos on the Google YouTube service? Will this issue be remediated? Nope. Why? Money. Misinformation is an infinite problem which requires infinite money to solve. Ergo. Just make money. That’s the leadership principle it seems.
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2024
Satire or Marketing: Let Smart Software Decide
July 3, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
What’s PhD level intelligence? In 1962, I had a required class in one of the -ologies. I vaguely remember that my classmates and I had to learn about pigeons, rats, and people who would make decisions that struck me as off the wall. The professor was named after a Scottish family from the Highlands. I do recall looking up the name and finding that it meant “crooked nose.” But the nose, as nice as it was, was nothing to the bed springs the good professor suspended from a second story window. I asked him, “What’s the purpose of the bed springs?” (None of the other students in the class cared, but I found the sight interesting.) His reply was, “I am using it as an antenna.” Okay, that is one example of PhD-level intelligence. I have encountered others, but I will not regale you with are somewhat idiosyncratic behaviors.
The illustration demonstrates the common sense approach to problem solving. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Chugging away on Recall and security over the holiday. Yep, I bet you are.
Why am I thinking about a story about bedsprings suspend from a second story window? I just read “ChatGPT Now Has PhD Level Intelligence, and the Poor Personal Choices to Prove It.” The write up states:
ChatGPT has become indispensable to plagiarists and spambots worldwide. Now, OpenAI is thrilled to introduce ChatGPT 5.0, the most advanced version of the popular virtual assistant to date. With groundbreaking improvements, GPT-5 is like having a doctor of philosophy right at your fingertips.
The write up (in a humorous vein I really hope) identifies some characteristics of the next big thing from Sam AI-Man, the Apple partner he hopes. The article suggests that ChatGPT 5 can cherish a saloon mug with this snappy phrase printed on the container:
Suck it up, liver.
No, I don’t want the mug, nor have I abused my liver as an undergraduate. I actually enjoyed spending time in the so-called university’s library.
The write up includes an short commentary about the ethical concerns or guardrails Sam AI-Man has on the Information Highway populated with smart vehicles and presumably less smart humans who are confident the zeros and ones don’t get scrambled:
Numerous questions have arisen regarding the ethics and legality of training ChatGPT on copyrighted text data without permission. In this latest version, however, reliance on authors’ intellectual property has been dramatically reduced. While GPT-5 started training from a knowledge base of millions of texts, it got around to reading only Frankenstein, plus maybe half of a Donna Haraway book. It basically bluffed its way through prelims by talking about “embodiment” a lot.
I get the Mary Shelly reference. But Donna Haraway forced me to ask Claude Sonnet 3.5, “Please, explain Donna Haraway’s contribution to ethical discourse.” Here’s what I received from the smart system competing with Sam AI-Man’s presumably smarter system:
Here’s Donna Haraway’s contribution to ethical discourse in three sentences:
- Donna Haraway challenged traditional ideas about what it means to be human by introducing the concept of a “cyborg” – a blend of human and machine.
- She argued that the lines between nature and culture, human and animal, and physical and non-physical are not as clear as we think, which forces us to rethink our ethical responsibilities.
- Her work encourages us to consider how technology and science affect our understanding of ourselves and our relationships with other living things, pushing us to develop new ethical frameworks for our changing world.
Thank you, Claude Sonnet 3.5! I have stated that my IQ score pegs me in the “Dumb Cod” percentile. I think Ms. Haraway is into the Ray Kurzweil and Elon Musk concept space. I know I am looking forward to nanodevices able to keep me alive for many, many years. I want to poke fun at smart software, and I quite like to think about PhD level software.
To close, I want to quote the alleged statement of a very smart person who could not remember if OpenAI used YouTube-type content to train ChatGPT. (Hey, even crooked nose remembered that he suspended the bed springs to function like an antenna.) The CTO of OpenAI allegedly said:
“If you look at the trajectory of improvement, systems like GPT-3 were maybe toddler-level intelligence… and then systems like GPT-4 are more like smart high-schooler intelligence. And then, in the next couple of years, we’re looking at PhD intelligence…” — Open AI CTO Mira Murati, in an interview with Dartmouth Engineering
I wonder if a person without a PhD can recognize “PhD intelligence”? Sure. Why not? It’s marketing.
Stephen E Arnold, July 3, 2024
Another Open Source AI Voice Speaks: Yo, Meta!
July 3, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
The open source software versus closed source software demonstrates ebbs and flows. Like the “go fast” with AI and “go slow” with AI, strong opinions suggest that big money and power are swirling like the storms on a weather app for Oklahoma in tornado season. The most recent EF5 is captured in “Zuckerberg Disses Closed-Source AI Competitors As Trying to Create God.” The US government seems to be concerned about open source smart software finding its way into the hands of those who are not fans of George Washington-type thinking.
Which AI philosophy will win the big pile of money? Team Blue representing the Zuck? Or, the rag tag proprietary wizards? Thanks, MSFT Copilot. You are into proprietary, aren’t you?
The “move fast and break things” personage of Mark Zuckerberg is into open source smart software. In the write up, he allegedly said in a YouTube bit:
“I don’t think that AI technology is a thing that should be kind of hoarded and … that one company gets to use it to build whatever central, single product that they’re building,” Zuckerberg said in a new YouTube interview with Kane Sutter (@Kallaway).
The write up includes this passage:
In the conversation, Zuckerberg said there needs to be a lot of different AIs that get created to reflect people’s different interests.
One interesting item in the article, in my opinion, is this:
“You want to unlock and … unleash as many people as possible trying out different things,” he continued. “I mean, that’s what culture is, right? It’s not like one group of people getting to dictate everything for people.”
But the killer Meta vision is captured in this passage:
Zuckerberg said there will be three different products ahead of convergence: display-less smart glasses, a heads-up type of display and full holographic displays. Eventually, he said that instead of neural interfaces connected to their brain, people might one day wear a wristband that picks up signals from the brain communicating with their hand. This would allow them to communicate with the neural interface by barely moving their hand. Over time, it could allow people to type, too. Zuckerberg cautioned that these types of inputs and AI experiences may not immediately replace smartphones, though. “I don’t think, in the history of technology, the new platform — it usually doesn’t completely make it that people stop using the old thing. It’s just that you use it less,” he said.
In short, the mobile phone is going down, not tomorrow, but definitely to the junk drawer.
Several observations which I know you are panting to read:
- Never under estimate making something small or re-invented as a different form factor. The Zuck might be “right.”
- The idea of “unleash” is interesting. What happens if employees at WhatsApp unleash themselves? How will the Zuck construct react? Like the Google? Something new like blue chip consulting firms replacing people with smart software? “Unleash” can be interpreted in different ways, but I am thinking of turning loose a pack of hyenas. The Zuck may be thinking about eager kindergartners. Who knows?
- The Zuck’s position is different from the government officials who are moving toward restrictions on “free and open” smart software. Those hallucinating large language models can be repurposed into smart weapons. Close enough for horseshoes with enough RDX may do the job.
Net net: The Zuck is an influential and very powerful information channel owner. “Unleash” what? Hungry predators or those innovating children? Perhaps neither. But as OpenAI seems to be closing; the Zuck AI is into opening. Ah, uncertainty is unfolding before my eyes in real time.
Stephen E Arnold, July 3, 2024
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