Venture Outfit Explains Obsolescence to Main Stream Media, Amazon Twitch, and Google YouTube
December 8, 2020
I am delighted to admit that I am not involved with TikTok or other whizzy video confections. Ever try Neverthink? The name explains the service. I did, however, read “Live, Social, and Shoppable: The Future of Video.” This is a breezy, MBA, venture firm style report. More remarkable, the document appears to be available without registration hoops, crazy pop ups, or blandishments to call us for investment advice.
What the write up does do is make the poobahs stunned with the announcement that Wonder Woman is headed to streaming get another gut shot. You can work through the report, the jazzy graphics, and the little icon forests yourself.
I want to focus on a single section called “The Video First Future,” specifically, the education statements. The main idea is, in my opinion,
… video can enhance the excitement of mastering a subject and the motivation to learn.
What’s this mean? First, hasta la vista to the traditional textbook publishers, a group already tethered to revenue with a thin cotton cord. Second, YouTube variants like Udacity and its compatriots must confront change. Third, the TikTok thing is a harbinger of the future of learning.
Yep, TikTok. The write up points out:
These types of platforms take academic curriculum and mix it with fun. The resulting edutainment is a hit for both kids and parents. How can a customer churn when their kid likes their class as much as Saturday morning cartoons and video games? In these kid-friendly entertaining education platforms, kids get that immediate feedback and virtual rewards whenever they get an answer right.
The anigif example requires a knowledge of Chinese and a certain youthful spirit to appreciate.
Several observations:
- Cultural differences in managing hungry young minds play no part in the write up
- The issue of controlling the information generated from these platforms is not considered
- The future suggests that game-ification, psychological strokes and slaps, and fragmented attention are the new big thing.
Perfect for generating interest in new investment funds and for sending shock waves of fear through organizations not into the TikTok-ization of information. Perhaps there is an existential question which YouTube must answer, “Can we avoid the fate of the media our service has disrupted?”
Focus may be a challenge for thumbtypers, regardless of their age and Fortnite skills.
Stephen E Arnold, December 8, 2020
LinkedIn Analyzed: Verrry Interesting
December 4, 2020
I read “LinkedIn’s Alternate Universe.” I was poking around in an effort to find out how many social profiles are held by Microsoft. The write up provides a number 722 million. However, for my purposes I used a less robust estimate of 660 million. I ran out of space for decimal places. Check the story on Monday, and you will understand my space challenge. The story is Disinterest in Search and Retrieval Quantified.
I recommend this Divinations’ write up because it is amusing, and it helped me understand why the service has become some what peculiar in a social network world in which Ripley’s Believe It or Not! content has become normative.
Here are three examples:
- Posts by living people announcing that the author is dead. Ho, ho. Alive, not dead for the denizens of a personnel department site.
- Begging for dollars and attention. The two seem to be joined at the medulla for some LinkedIn members.
- The antics of recruiters become Twitter jokes.
What is fascinating is that we have a WordPress plug in that posts headlines to LinkedIn automatically. This creates some interesting reactions. First, the software bot has about 800 LinkedIn friends. Okay. I think that’s good. Second, the stories about the MSFT social network service have been filtered as I recall.
The article is worth a gander.
Stephen E Arnold, December 4, 2020
Want to Manipulate Humans? Try These Hot Buttons
December 3, 2020
Okay, thumb typing marketers, insights from academia. Navigate to “We Are All Behavioral, More or Less: A Taxonomy of Consumer Decision Making.” The write up is available from Dartmouth, home of behavioral economists and psychologists and okay pizza.
The write up is 70 pages in length and chock full of jargon and academic thinking. Nevertheless, the author, one Victor Stango, reveals some suggestive information.
Here are a couple of examples:
Table 3. Correlations among behavioral biases, and between biases and other decision inputs offers insight into pairings of bias factors
Table 5. Rotated 8-factor models and loadings of decision inputs on common factors provides a “look up table” with values to help guide a sales pitch
The list of hot button factors includes:
- Present bias
- Choice type
- Risk biases
- Confidence
- Math bias
- Attention
- Patience vs. risk aversion
- Cognitive skills
- Personality
Net net: Manipulate biases by combining factors. Launch those online marketing campaigns via social media with confidence, p-value lovers.
Stephen E Arnold, December 2, 2020
Younger Person Explains the Information Age
November 30, 2020
Do you pay attention to young people? Some have great ideas; others edge up to an idea and back away; and others just explain the world the way it really is. To test your receptivity to that I call the jejune ethos, navigate to “The Paradox of the Great Information Flood.” Note that the younger person does not go with the “tsunami” metaphor. This is no wave; this is a flood which means, according to Dictionary.com:
A great flowing or overflowing of water, especially over land not usually submerged. Any great outpouring or stream.
One minor point: Floods recede, but let’s look at other revelations.
- Central authority is not a hot ticket.
- More information produces more uncertainty.
- Existential wobbling and nihilism-on-the-rise are us.
How do these observations stack up against the reality of online information. I would point out a few modest differences; for example:
- Online information fosters surveillance ecosystems
- Online information erodes traditional structures; that is, the authority thing, the certainty thing, and the wobbling thing
- Online information evolves into monopolies; for example, Google in search and other FAANG centroids
- Online information requires deleting “old”, “historical,” and fungible data and information
- Online information is manipulable; that is, the deep fake capability is the norm
- Online information facilitates blurring the real with the construct; that is, gameification of data and experience.
Net net: The essay addresses observable facets of the information flood. Floods and tsunamis don’t capture what has been in operation since the mid 1970s. Floods go away; waves pass.
Digital information refines permanence. Hello, world. You are neither brave nor new. Thumb typers are justifiably uncertain, wobbly, and suspicious of “authority.”
Stephen E Arnold, November 30, 2020
Information Overload: Get Used to It
September 30, 2020
Modern humans have access to more information than any other generation before them. Better and more access to information is directly proportional to humanity’s technological progress. Scientific American’s article, “Unlimited Information Is Transforming Society” explores the correlation between technology and information.
Scientific and technological progress did not advance in the past as it does today. Any revelation was developed through craft traditions that contributed to humanity’s survival or daily tasks easier. Technology as we know it came about:
“In the late 1800s matters changed: craft traditions were reconstructed as “technology” that bore an important relation to science, and scientists began to take a deeper interest in applying theories to practical problems.”
Technology and science still did not work in tandem for years despite the parallels. For example, aviation was pioneered before scientists understand aeronautical science. The common belief was that machines weighing more than air could not fly.
What advanced science and technology the most in the past 175 years was the manipulation of energy and matter. The movement of energy and matter thus moved information and ideas. The best example of this is electricity, which led to then event of telecommunications devices, familiarly known as televisions, telegraphs, radios, and televisions. Electricity also changed manufacturing (moving factories away from water powered systems) and people’s daily lives from traveling to entertainment.
Computing would be the next big information mover and spreader. Nuclear energy and space travel were predicted to be the next big shake-ups, but the Cold War, a few nuclear meltdowns, and lack of funding for more space-related projects/earthly concerns were a few reasons they did not.
Everything is related (not in a conspiracy related way), but in how one sector of life affects another, such as electricity leading to television’s invention:
“That said, one change that is already underway in the movement of information is the blurring of boundaries between consumers and producers. In the past the flow of information was almost entirely one-way, from the newspaper, radio or television to the reader, listener or viewer. Today that flow is increasingly two-way—which was one of Tim Berners-Lee’s primary goals when he created the World Wide Web in 1990. We “consumers” can reach one another via Skype, Zoom and FaceTime; post information through Instagram, Facebook and Snapchat; and use software to publish our own books, music and videos—without leaving our couches.”
There is more information and access to it and this has also led to a more convenient way of life brought on by technological advances. Technology that also used to be available to a limited number of people, such as computers (remember big old monstrosities that took up entire building floors and processed 30 MB), are in the hands of children. Lines are blurring between the experts and the amateurs, public and private, male and female, etc. What does that mean for the future? One thing we do know is that we cannot predict that.
Whitney Grace, September 30, 2020
Modern Behavior
July 17, 2020
I read “The Modern Day Mind Killer.” The write up contained an interesting factoid. In a Rona world, the good old buffet line may become problematic. Nevertheless, here’s the item:
I recently came across a study of the behavior of people in a buffet line. The results blew me away. At the average breakfast buffet, the first item was taken by 75% of the diners (even when the order of the items was reversed). Two-thirds of all the food taken came from the first three items, regardless of how long the buffet was.
The author points out:
We are less in control of our actions and decisions than we think we are.
This seems like a useful observation.
Stephen E Arnold, July 17, 2020
Google and Social: Peanut Butter and Jelly?
July 10, 2020
We read with interest “Google+ Rebranded as Google Currents: Check New App Features.” Google’s Orkut was a fascinating service. Certain interesting users in Brazil made it a semi-hit, particularly among law enforcement officers. Then there were other social services, most notably Google + or Plus. Searching for symbols was clever. Close enough but I wrote out the plus. A word. Easy to search.
Google Plus bit the dust, but the write up points out that Google Plus is now Currents. Either electric chair type or flowing water. Maybe berries?
We noted this statement in the article:
Google+, although never exactly a successful platform, was marred by two major data leaks, potentially exposing data of tens of millions of users to outside developers. One leak that was kept secret for months, and the other one, which leaked the data of 52.5 million people, prompted Google to prepone [sic] the shutdown by four months.
“Prepone” caught our eye, but the write up does remind one about Google’s security capabilities.
The killer factoid in the write up warranted a blue circle with a pen and one exclamation point:
Google has, on multiple occasions, acknowledged that Google+ has not been able to meet the expectations. In a blog post in October, Google’s Ben Smith wrote that 90 percent of Google+ user sessions are less than five seconds long.
Five seconds. Interesting. Definitely not sticky.
Stephen E Arnold, July 10, 2020
Will Insurance Companies Tie Rates to Rage?
July 7, 2020
The community-driven navigation app Waze, owned by Google, has refreshed its design. The company changed up the color scheme, logos, icons, and typeface—the sort of tweaks one would expect to keep users engaged. One particular change, however, is more intriguing. Engadget reveals, “Waze Lets Drivers Display their Moods in the App.” That could prove to be very useful information for some advertisers, individuals, and government entities. Writer Christine Fisher reports:
“Waze is also adding something called Moods, a feature that will ‘capture users’ emotions.’ ‘Celebrating the passion and authenticity of its users, Waze hopes that the update will harness the “humanness” that can often be lost within inhumane traffic conditions,’ the company wrote in a press release. It’s unclear if Moods will be shared with nearby Waze users. Letting other drivers know how you feel doesn’t necessarily sound like a great idea, but for the most part the Mood icons look too cute to induce serious road rage. ‘Hopefully our new look reminds users of the magic of our community and the way we work together for better,’ said Jake Shaw, head of creative at Waze.”
The icons are indeed very cute, we’ll give them that, and touting the “magic of community” sounds delightful. But giving away even more personal data seems like a bad idea to those of us who understand how various entities can use seemingly benign personal details. Founded in 2007, Waze is based in the San Francisco Bay area. Google bought the company for $966 million in 2013.
Cynthia Murrell, July 7, 2020
Bloomberg on Trump and Twitter: News or Advice from Left Field?
June 1, 2020
I read “Twitter-Trump Spat Signals New Chapter for Social Media.” News, Dear Abby, or a wanna be consultant CxO memo? The write up has a news hook: “Twitter Inc. added a fact-check warning label to two of president’s posts about mail-in voting. In response, Trump threatened in a set of tweets Wednesday to “strongly regulate or close” down social-media platforms.”
What’s interesting about the write up is that the “news” story shoots into an interesting direction: Consulting and legal advice combined in one “real news” story:
Now, with another presidential election just months away, they made a calculated gamble that it was time to take a stand. It will be hard to retreat from here. When the dust settles, Trump’s threats will likely be seen as political theater without any lasting ramifications for Twitter’s business. Technology companies will challenge the president’s executive order in court on the grounds he can’t unilaterally change precedent without Congressional approval.
Is this Bloomberg’s official position? Nah, that would imply accountability for using news as a platform for a well written blog type commentary. The “author” has an email address, but Bloomberg adds:
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Fascinating. “Real news” with advice, a slightly “annoyed parent” tone, and a disclaimer. Hey, we published this, but we are not really backing up the writer or the content. Are we on the “Verge” of a new type of “real news”?
There you go.
Stephen E Arnold, June 1, 2020
Biased? You Betcha
March 11, 2020
Fact checkers probably have one of the hardest jobs, especially with today’s 24/7 access news stream. Determining what the facts are is difficult and requires proper research. Fact checkers, however, have a tougher nut to crack with confirmation bias a.k.a. this article from Nieman Lab: “The Fact-Checker’s Dilemma: Humans Are Hardwired To Dismiss Facts That Don’t Fit Their Worldview.”
The article opens with a poignant statement about polarized, insulated ideological communities ratified by their own beliefs. Some examples of these communities are autism is caused by vaccines, global warming is a hoax, and different political mish mash.
Refuting false information should be simple, especially with cold, hard facts, but that is not the case. Political, religion, ethnicity, nationality, and other factors influence how and what people believe. What is the cause behind this behavior?
“The interdisciplinary study of this phenomenon has exploded over just the past six or seven years. One thing has become clear: The failure of various groups to acknowledge the truth about, say, climate change, isn’t explained by a lack of information about the scientific consensus on the subject. Instead, what strongly predicts denial of expertise on many controversial topics is simply one’s political persuasion.”
What is astonishing is this:
“A 2015 metastudy showed that ideological polarization over the reality of climate change actually increases with respondents’ knowledge of politics, science, and/or energy policy. The chances that a conservative is a climate change denier is significantly higher if he or she is college-educated. Conservatives scoring highest on tests for cognitive sophistication or quantitative reasoning skills are most susceptible to motivated reasoning about climate science.”
While the above example is about conservatives, liberals also have their own confirmation bias dilemmas. This behavior is also linked to primal human behaviors, where, in order to join a social group, humans had to assimilate the group’s beliefs and habits. Personally held prejudices do affect factual beliefs and these can be anything from politics, religion, etc.
Unwelcome information also increases people to cling to wrong information. Anything that threatens an established system encourages close minded thinking. This also gives rise to deniers and conspiracy theories that can also be regarded as fact, when there is not any information to support it.
It is basic human behavior to reject anything that threatens strongly held interests, dogmas, or creeds giving way to denial. Politicians manipulate that behavior to their benefit and the average individual does not realize it. “Waking up “ or becoming aware how the human brain works in relation to confirmation bias is key to overcoming false facts.
Whitney Grace, March 11, 202
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
