Overhyped Science Stuff
December 30, 2015
After Christmas, comes New Year’s Eve and news outlets take the time to reflect on the changes in the past year. Usually they focus on celebrities who died, headlining news stories, technology advancements, and new scientific discoveries. One of the geeky news outlets on the Internet is Gizmodo and they took their shot at highlighting things that happened in 2015, but rather than focusing on new advances they check off “The Most Overhyped Scientific Discoveries In 2015.”
There was extreme hype about an alien megastructure in outer space that Neil deGrasse Tyson had to address and tell folks they were overreacting. Bacon and other processed meats were labeled as carcinogens and caused cancer! The media, of course, took the bacon link and ran with it causing extreme panic, but in the long run everything causes cancer from cellphones to sugar.
Global warming is a hot topic that always draws arguments and it appears to be getting worse the more humans release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Humans are always ready for a quick solution and a little ice age would rescue Earth. It would be brought on by diminishing solar activity, but it turns out carbon dioxide pollution does more damage than solar viability can fix. Another story involved the nearly indestructible tardigrades and the possibility of horizontal gene transfer, but a dispute between two rival labs about research on tardigrades ruined further research to understanding the unique creature.
The biggest overblown scientific discovery, in our opinion, is NASA’s warp drive. Humans are desperate for breakthroughs in space travel, so we can blast off to Titan’s beaches for a day and then come home within our normal Earth time. NASA experimented with an EM Drive:
“Apparently, the engineers working on the EM Drive decided to address some of the skeptic’s concerns head-on this year, by re-running their experiments in a closed vacuum to ensure the thrust they were measuring wasn’t caused by environmental noise. And it so happens, new EM Drive tests in noise-free conditions failed to falsify the original results. That is, the researchers had apparently produced a minuscule amount of thrust without any propellant.
Once again, media reports made it sound like NASA was on the brink of unveiling an intergalactic transport system.”
NASA might be working on warp drive prototype, but the science is based on short-term experiments, none of it has been peer reviewed, and NASA has not claimed that the engine even works.
The media takes the idea snippets and transforms them into overblown news pieces that are based more on junk science than real scientific investigation.
Whitney Grace, December 30, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Another Good Reason for Diversity in Tech
December 29, 2015
Just who decides what we see when we search? If we’re using Google, it’s a group of Google employees, of course. The Independent reports, “Google’s Search Results Aren’t as Unbiased as You Think—and a Lack of Diversity Could Be the Cause.” Writer Doug Bolton points to a TEDx talk by Swedish journalist Andreas Ekström, in which Ekström describes times Google has, and has not, counteracted campaigns to deliberately bump certain content. For example, the company did act to decouple racist imagery from searches for “Michelle Obama,” but did nothing to counter the association between a certain Norwegian murderer and dog poop. Boldon writes:
“Although different in motivation, the two campaigns worked in exactly the same way – but in the second, Google didn’t step in, and the inaccurate Breivik images stayed at the top of the search results for much longer. Few would argue that Google was wrong to end the Obama campaign or let the Breivik one run its course, but the two incidents shed light on the fact that behind such a large and faceless multi-billion dollar tech company as Google, there’s people deciding what we see when we search. And in a time when Google has such a poor record for gender and ethnic diversity and other companies struggle to address this imbalance (as IBM did when they attempted to get women into tech by encouraging them to ‘Hack a Hairdryer’), this fact becomes more pressing.”
The article notes that only 18 percent of Google’s tech staff worldwide are women, and that it is just two percent Hispanic and one percent black. Ekström’s talk has many asking what unperceived biases lurk in Google’s algorithms, and some are calling on the company anew to expand its hiring diversity. Naturally, though, any tech company can only do so much until more girls and minorities are encouraged to explore the sciences.
Cynthia Murrell, December 29, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Analytics Predictions for 2016
December 28, 2015
Well, there is one omission: Predictive analytics. The truth is revealed in “Top 5 Analytics Predictions for 2016.” I like the idea of focusing on five prognostications.
Here is what’s ahead in the analytics sector. Close the flap on your SAS disks:
- Machine learning is “established” in the enterprise.
- The Internet of Things “hits reality.”
- Big Data enriches modeling.
- Cybersecurity is improved via analytics.
- Analytics drives increased industry academic interaction.
A few observations.
Machine learning is a synonym for artificial intelligence and smart software. My experience is that software has included smarter functions for years. Remember Clippy? Don’t you love those disappearing options in Adobe “creative” products?
The Internet of Things remains a bit of a baffler to me. I am not sure about a smart refrigerator, but I am okay with machine tools reporting their “health” to a person who wants to keep downtime to a minimum. Unfortunately that type of IoT application is moving, just not with the pace of an intrepid millennial on the Stairmaster.
The notion of enriching modeling is interesting. The push is to make intelligence systems deliver outputs in a semi or automated fashion. Focusing on the intermediary—that is, the modeler—reminds me of the non user friendly tasks an analyst must perform before outputs are available.
On the cybersecurity front, analytics have been a major thrust for years. I assume that when one predicts the future, information about the past and what’s currently in use are not pre-requisites.
The academic industry thing is an interesting way to make clear that folks with knowledge of math, statistics, and related expertise are in short supply. Universities are in the financial services business. I am not sure their core competency is producing more math types quickly. Well, maybe the Kahn Academy can pick up the slack. C* algebras are really trivial and can be learned in a four minute video.
Quite a list.
Stephen E Arnold, December 30, 2015
Cyber Threat Intelligence Across the Enterprise
December 28, 2015
A blog series from iSightPartners aims to help organizations make the most of Cyber Threat Intelligence. The series is introduced in, “How CTI Helps Six Groups Do Their Jobs Better: A New Blog Series!” Writer Christina Jasinski explains:
“The importance of Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) has become more widely recognized in the past year. But not many people realize how many different ways threat intelligence can be utilized across an enterprise. That’s why now is a good time to drill down and describe the wide range of use cases for employing threat intelligence for many different functions within an IT organization.
“Are you a CISO, SOC Analyst or an Incident Responder? Stay tuned….
“This is the first post in an iSIGHT Partners blog series that will delve into how IT security professionals in each of six distinct roles within an organization’s information security program can (and should) apply threat intelligence to their function. Each post will include 3-4 use cases, how CTI can be used by professionals in that role, and the type of threat intelligence that is required to achieve their objectives.”
Jasinski goes on to describe what her series has to offer professionals in each of those roles, and concludes by promising to reveal practical solutions to CTI quandaries. Follow her blog posts to learn those answers.
Cynthia Murrell, December 28, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Blue Chip Consulting Firm and Its Predictions for 2016
December 27, 2015
I read “10 Business and Technology Trends to Watch in 2016.” These prognostications come from a unit of Accenture called Fjord.
What’s interesting about this list of which horses will win assorted races is that the forecast does not include the phrase “artificial intelligence.” Also, missing in action is the IoT mantra. You know, gentle reader, that your refrigerator will phone home to your health insurance provider when you snag a sugar and fat infused snack during March Madness.
Here’s the list. How many of these buzzwords do you recognize? Hint: Not many. The object of the listing is to stimulate you to hire Fjord to cleave the glacier of your understanding with the white hot heat of the consulting firm’s insight:
- Micromoments
- Services with manner
- The employee experience
- Disappearing apps
- Flattening of privilege
- Government for the people
- Health in our own hands
- Virtual reality
- The return of simplicity
- Design from within.
Quite a list. I am still puzzled with the micromoments thing. Perhaps this is a reflection of the “quality time” blue chip consultants try to set aside for appropriate interaction with their families. Some of the other predictions are Zen like; for example, flat privilege except for those with platinum airline reward cards and the return of simplicity to partner office decorations. And there is no reference to search, content processing, or predictive analytics. There are subsumed under the metaphors used to predict the future. Delphic in a way I surmise.
There you have it. Enjoy your employee experience when you miss your goals for the quarter, gentle reader.
Stephen E Arnold, December 27, 2015
Technical Debt: Financial Disaster
December 25, 2015
Adoption of cloud-based services provides the enterprise with I read “Treat Technical Debt Like a Bad Relationship.” Googlers called attention to technical debt. I wrote about that Google paper earlier in 2015. The idea is not a new one. The idea is that today’s technology requires on-going investment.
That investment is necessary if the product is to be kept working and in step with what competitors offer. What happens if one ignores the technical debt, the local bean counter points out that the amount of dough required to keep a product is greater than its revenue. End of story. Some products can chug along for years. I don’t think too much about my refrigerator unless it stops working. I don’t repair it if it is 11 years old. I get a new one. That’s what happens with search and content processing. A recent example is GoDaddy. The company bought Enterprise (yes, I know that your friendly mid tier consultant does not know about this system. But GoDaddy decided after 11 years to get a new one.
In the write up, the notion of a bad relationship speaks more about the author than about how the finances of a technology work out over time. Perhaps an expensive divorce would be more apt. Plenty of organizations license a search and content processing technology and then figure out that a new one is needed. Expensive? Yep.
The write up points out:
Adoption of cloud-based services provides the enterprise with the ability to minimize technical debt by striking a balance between continuously delivered cloud solutions and existing controls necessary to remain compliant with security requirements. Experienced technical personnel must assess those requirements against available cloud offerings. Increased cloud adoption will free technical security personnel from managing software, empowering them to spend more time on assessments and adoption of technology to stay ahead of evolving threats.
What happens if the cloud solution delivers the same cost burdens as any other enterprise application?
The answer is, “Get a new one.”
That’s what IBM itself does. The company coded up STAIRS III, converted it, and still sells the technology today. IBM bought iPhrase, bought Vivisimo, invested in home brew content processing initiatives like Web Fountain. Now IBM has wrapped scripts around a basket of technologies.
If one buys into the IBM solution, will the technical debt become a tiny part of the information technology budget? I don’t think so. The customer pays for its decisions. The vendor loses a client. A technology failure can impair or cause a business failure.
Technological debt is very different from having a bad friend. The divorce metaphor works well: Pain, lawyers, and brutal costs.
How does one deal with technical debt? Well, buy cloud services from IBM, after you, gentle reader, query Watson for guidance.
Stephen E Arnold, December 25, 2015
Alphabet Google Makes Cheerful Robot Reindeer
December 24, 2015
Short honk: I love reindeer. Brown creatures. Nice eyes. Well, Alphabet Google has a different take on these Santa friendly mammals. Remember, gentle reader, the Googlers like robots. What could be better than combining a mammal loved by children and a robot? Here’s a snap of the Googler’s improvement on Mother Nature.
Would this frighten a three year old? No. Look at the blade runner legs, the red decorations, and the absence of a head. I wonder if the reindeer robots have a red LED for a nose. Ho ho ho.
I think these robots would be useful in third world countries to help deal with poverty, disease, a shortage of troops, and what not.
Stephen E Arnold, December 24, 2015
Google Clamps down on Surprise Costs in BigQuery
December 23, 2015
The article titled Google Promises to Rein in Runaway Query Costs on Fortune discusses the obstacles facing Google’s BigQuery data tool. Google hopes to make BigQuery a major resource for big companies considering cloud technology, but unpredictable costs are getting in the way of the “low-cost big data analytics option” marketing that Google has deployed. Hence, the introduction of “custom quota” and Query Explain,
“Google is now offering potential inquisitors a way to set a “custom quota” to ensure that the number crunching on a specified project does not exceed a pre-set daily limit. In addition, a Query Explain feature promises to lay out, how BigQuery will go about processing the question on the table in advance. That way, in theory, you can see if your questions will be “write, read, or compute heavy” and better anticipate where performance bottlenecks could lurk…”
One might fairly ask why there was any delay in these services, since customers are not known for their fondness of mobile phone type billing surprises. Amazon is also standing next to Google waving at RedShift, a BigQuery competitor in the air. But the simpler pricing and efficiency of BigQuery might be more appealing to many companies, especially with the more controlled processes now available.
Chelsea Kerwin, December 23, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Top Trends for Cyber Security and Analytics in 2016
December 23, 2015
With the end of the year approaching, people try to predict what will happen in the New Year. The New Year brings on a sort of fortunetelling, because if companies are able to correctly predict what will happen in 2016 then it serves for positive profit margins and a healthier customer base. The IT industry has its own share of New Year soothsayers and the Executive Biz blog shares that “Booz Allen Cites Top Cyber, Analytics Trends In 2016; Bill Stewart Comments” with possible trends in cyber security and data analytics for the coming year.
Booz Allen Hamilton says that companies will want to merge analytical programs with security programs to receive data sets that show network vulnerabilities; they have been dubbed “fusion centers.”
“ ‘As cyber risk and advanced analytics demand increasing attention from the C-suite, we are about to enter a fundamentally different period,’ said Bill Stewart, executive vice president and leader of commercial cyber business at Booz Allen. ‘The dynamics will change… Skilled leaders will factor these changing dynamics into their planning, investments and operations.’”
The will also be increased risks coming from the Dark Web and risks that are associated with connected systems, such as cloud storage. Booz Allen also hints that companies will need skilled professionals who know how to harness cyber security risks and analytics. That suggestion is not new, as it has been discussed since 2014. While the threat from the Internet and vulnerabilities within systems has increased, the need for experts in these areas as well as better programs to handle them has always been needed. Booz Allen is restating the obvious, the biggest problem is that companies are not aware of these risks and they usually lack the budget to implement preemptive measures.
Whitney Grace, December 23, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
The Importance of Google AI
December 23, 2015
According to Business Insider, we’ve all been overlooking something crucial about Google. Writer Lucinda Shen reports, “Top Internet Analyst: There Is One Thing About Google that Everyone Is Missing.” Shen cites an observation by prominent equity analyst Carlos Kirjner. She writes:
“Kirjner, that thing [that everyone else is missing] is AI at Google. ’Nobody is paying attention to that because it is not an issue that will play out in the next few quarters, but longer term it is a big, big opportunity for them,’ he said. ‘Google’s investments in artificial intelligence, above and beyond the use of machine learning to improve character, photo, video and sound classification, could be so revolutionary and transformational to the point of raising ethical questions.’
“Even if investors and analysts haven’t been closely monitoring Google’s developments in AI, the internet giant is devoted to the project. During the company’s third-quarter earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai told investors the company planned to integrate AI more deeply within its core business.”
Google must be confident in its AI if it is deploying it across all its products, as reported. Shen recalls that the company made waves back in November, when it released the open-source AI platform TensorFlow. Is Google’s AI research about to take the world by storm?
Cynthia Murrell, December 23, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
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