Will Mobile Be Microsoft Downfall in AI Field?
January 12, 2018
We are startled to see Computerworld levy such a blow to Microsoft, but here we go— see their article, “The Missing Link in Microsoft’s AI Strategy.” Writer Preston Gralla insists that the company’s weakness lies in mobile tech—and it could prove to be a real problem as Microsoft competes against the likes of Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon in the growing field of AI. Galla acknowledges Microsoft’s advantages here—its vast quantities of valuable data and its AI system, Cortana, already built into Windows. However, she writes:
Microsoft is missing something very big in A.I. as well: a significant mobile presence. Google and Apple, via Android and iOS, gather tremendous amounts of useful data for their A.I. work. And gathering the data is just the starting point. Hundreds of millions of people around the world use the A.I.-powered Siri, Google Assistant and Google Now on their mobile devices. So Google and Apple can continue to improve their A.I. work, based on how people use their devices. Given that the future (and to a great extent, the present) is mobile, all this means serious problems for Microsoft in A.I. A.I. is likely a big part of the reason that Microsoft kept Windows Phone on life support for so many years, spending billions of dollars while it died a slow, ugly, public death.
The article outlines a few things Microsoft has been doing to try to catch up to its rivals, like developing (little-used) versions of Cortana for iOS and Android, working with hardware makers on Cortana-powered speakers, and partnering with Amazon’s Alexa for any tasks Cortana is not quite up to (yet). Will this need to play catch-up seriously hamper Microsoft’s AI prominence? We shall see.
Cynthia Murrell, January 12, 2018
Two Senior Citizens Go Steady: IBM and British Telecom Hug in the Cloud
January 10, 2018
I read “BT Offers businesses Direct Access to IBM Cloud Services.” That sounds like an interesting idea. However, BT (the new version of British Telecom) has joined hands with Amazon’s cloud as well. See this Telecompaper item, please.
These tie ups are interesting.
When I learned of BT’s partnering, I thought of an image which I saw on a Knoxville, Tennessee, TV news program. I dug through Bing and located the story “Couple Renews Vows in Nursing Home after 70 Years of Marriage” and this image:
British Telecom open for business in maybe as far back as 1880, depending on how one interprets the history of the British post office. IBM, of course, flipped on its lights in 1911.
The idea that those with some life experience find partnering rewarding underscores the essence of humanity.
Will the going steady evolve into significant, sustainable new revenues?
Where there is a will there is a way. I am tempted to state boldly, “Let’s ask Watson.” But I think I will go with Amazon’s Alexa which will be installed in some Lexus automobiles.
But age has its virtues. A happy quack to WVLT in Knoxville. No pix of the new couple (BT and IBM) were available to me. Darn.
Stephen E Arnold, January 10, 2018
Google Just Caught the Amazon Ad Disease
January 3, 2018
The ideas are good. Build up revenue from online sales. Diversity revenue and offset infrastructure costs, the bane of Alphabet Google. Open new channels with consumer hardware. Then look around for a competitor with a back injury or a wobbly knee and run plays at that weak spot.
Football American style?
Nope. Just Amazon’s apparent 2018 game plan.
I read “What It Means That Amazon Is Bringing Ads to Alexa.” (I must admit the working of the title was interesting with the phrase “means that”.)
The point of the write up focuses on the consumer “experience.” Sigh. I learned from the write up:
Amazon is reportedly testing out various ad types, including videos and promoted paid search results (a la Google). CNBC reports that Amazon is preparing for a “serious run at the ad market” that could begin as soon as this year.
I understand the counter argument: Google’s ad revenue is “safe.” See, for example, the analyst think in “Amazon’s Advertising Push Will Not Threaten Google’s Search Business, Analyst Says.”
My view is that Google is dependent upon online advertising. In the company’s two decades of making relevance irrelevant, Google lacks Amazon’s revenue diversity.
I may be a simplistic hick living in rural Kentucky, but it seems to be that the cost to Amazon to probe online ad revenues poses few risks and comparatively cost-free opportunities for the digital behemoth.
Let’s assume that Amazon is only partially successful; that is, the company lands a few big advertisers and confines its efforts to ads in Amazon search results and to Alexa outputs.
Google will have to spend big or cost costs in order to make up for the loss of a handful of big advertisers. The problem is similar to that Westlaw and LexisNexis face when a big law firm dies or merges with another firm. The revenues are expensive, time consuming, and difficult to replace.
Assume that Amazon is quite successful. The erosion of Google revenue may be modest at first and then map into one of those nifty diagrams for the spread of cancer. My recollection is that Sartwell’s Law may be germane. See “Sartwell’s Incubation Period Model Revisited in the Light of Dynamic Modeling.”
Amazon advertising may be a form of cancer. If it gains traction, the cancer will spread. Unpleasant metaphor, but it illustrates how Amazon can undermine Google and either [a] force Alphabet Google to spend more to remain healthy, [b] weaken Google so that it cannot resist other “infectious” incursions like governmental actions related to taxes and allegations of unfair practices, or [c] set Google up for gradual stagnation followed by a phase change (collapse).
In short, whether one is pro or anti Amazon, the testing of Amazon ads warrants watching.
Stephen E Arnold, January 3, 2018
The Google Imperative 2018: Do Not Survive. Thrive
January 1, 2018
At a New Year’s celebration, a well-meaning person buttonholed me and asked, “What’s going to happen to Google in 2018?” The person does not search like a high-powered information professional nor like an analyst laboring in the bowels of Shin Bet. I think the fellow wanted a stock tip presented as a query about the GOOG.
I don’t do stock tips.
I shared with the person my opinion that Google is not one company. How many firms have multiple overlapping applications to perform the same function? Want to search for online videos from antsy teens? Use either GoogleVideo.com or YouTube.com? Need to chat online? You have Google Duo and Google Groups and — what? — eight, nine, or more? Need high-speed communications in Puerto Rico? Pick either the Loon balloon or the laser method if you can.
I mentioned to the person who was guzzling bubbly while I sipped my lukewarm bottle of orange flavored Ice Water: “I think Google wants to build bridges, not walls.” I was thinking about the opinions and real news in “Google Looks to Mend Fences after Rocky 2017.” The article suggests or hypothesizes that
the GOOG In 2017, though, the company consistently found itself in damage control mode as it dealt with one controversy after another.
That’s a good thing I suggested.
I mentioned that Google seems to be struggling in relationship with Amazon, the Bezos behemoth which appears to have diversified its revenues, managed to change some business school professors’ thinking about supply chains, and created a gadget business which tells off color jokes much to the delight of 11 year old boys.
Speaking of children, I had in mind this article from Forbes: “Google And Amazon’s Childish Little Fight Is Spilling Into Your Home.” The operative idea is encapsulated in the word “childish.”
What happens when the high school science club gets into a down and out with the high school math club? Well, let me tell you that seating arrangements in the cafeteria change. Friendships are strained. Snide remarks can be heard in hallways.
Net net: Google is operating with a bicameral mind. On one hand, the company wants to do something “big.” On the other, it is scrambling to become pals with China. Recall that Google suggested to China’s leadership that the country should “change.” Now that was about as successful as a Loon balloon in a Category 3 storm I believe. Google’s million dollar lobbying machine is sputtering. Google is embroiled in an expensive battle with the European Union
Three observations:
- The spat with Amazon is an issue, and I am not sure that either company can be completely happy with the other. Let’s hope I am wrong because a teacher whom I know relies on YouTube and Amazon video for entertainment. What’s the adage, “When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.”
- The problems with governments are going be difficult to wind down. The writing of checks and the promises of being a better corporate citizen have to be sold, then demonstrated. The problem is complicated because some countries see Google like an automated teller machine which spits out money when the lawyers enter the pass code “fines.”
- The diversification of revenue is likely to be a challenge. Google has been trying to come up with additional, high margin, sustainable revenue streams for more than 15 years. Plug those non online ad revenues in Excel. Use the “prediction” function, and what do you get? The result is a curve which does not match what Google has to do to achieve growth nirvana. Reality, unfortunately, is not the same as spreadsheet fever, public relations, and apologizing.
At the party, the person said, “So do I buy or sell Google shares?”
I smiled and said, “Ask Alexa.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 1, 2018
Artificial Intelligence: Horse Feathers?
December 25, 2017
I read “Artificial Intelligence More Hype Than Reality: Narayana Murthy.” The individual expressing this view is Infosys co-founder N.R. Narayana Murthy. I am not sure some of the folks at Facebook, Google, IBM, Microsoft, and the hundreds of other companies touting smart software agree with Mr. Murthy’s opinion.
I found this comment interesting:
“There is this whole thing about automation and artificial intelligence. That is much more hype than the reality, at least in the software services.”
Let’s ask IBM Watson, Cortana, and Alexa. Well, maybe not. Those systems are engaged in more substantive matters.
Stephen E Arnold, December 25, 2017
The Thing Holding AI Back Is the Thing It Needs Most, Data
November 30, 2017
Here’s an interesting problem: for artificial intelligence and machine learning to thrive, it needs a massive amount of information. However, they need so much data that it causes hiccups in the system. Google has a really interesting solution to this problem, as we learned in the Reuter’s article, “Google’s Hinton Outlines New AI Advance That Requires Less Data.”
The bundling of neurons working together to determine both whether a feature is present and its characteristics also means the system should require less data to make its predictions.
The leader of Google Brain said, “The hope is that maybe we might require less data to learn good classifiers of objects, because they have this ability of generalizing to unseen perspectives or configurations of images.
Less data for big data? It’s just crazy enough to work. In fact, some of the brightest minds in the business are trying to, as ComputerWorld said, “do less with more.” The piece focuses on Fuzzy LogiX and their attempts to do exactly what Google is hypothetically saying. It will be interesting to see what happens, but we are betting on technology cracking this nut.
Patrick Roland, November 30, 2017
Voice Search: Bing vs Google
November 3, 2017
We all know that Microsoft’s Bing has struggled to compete with Google Search. Will voice search level the field? Search Engine Watch ponders, “How Does Bing’s Voice Search Compare to Google’s?” Writer Clark Boyd acknowledges it does not seem Bing will eclipse Google as a whole anytime soon, but points to Microsoft’s new partnership with Amazon’s Alexa as evidence of change. The article delves into specifics about Microsoft’s voice-search technology, mostly with details on Cortana but also citing the voice search now found in their Edge browser. It also examines the company’s apparent strategy, which involves that partnership with Amazon and integration into popular platforms like Spotify.
Boyd next examines specific differences between the companies’ voice searches. For example, he states Cortana is better at understanding his Irish accent, and Cortana’s tie-in with Windows lends efficiency to task management. It is Boyd’s analysis of context, though, that I found most interesting. He writes:
When a user is logged in across Windows products, Cortana can serve accurate contextual results. See below for an example of the same phrase [“who are Leeds playing today?”] searched by voice on a Windows laptop using Cortana and Google. The differences are slight but telling. Cortana knows that I am currently in Spain (I am using a Windows laptop), and therefore provides the kick-off in my local time. Google is not privy to this information and serves the result in Eastern Time, as my account is based in the US. When results default to Bing, it all gets a little hairier. I follow up by asking who will be in the starting lineup and receive a bizarre result about the USA soccer team, a news story about a Leeds starting lineup from three years ago, and some news about the Leeds music festival. Google does a better job of this, but both lack the immediacy that integration with a social media feed would provide.
This same pattern plays out across a wide range of travel, weather, and commercial queries. When Cortana can pull an immediate answer, it does so very capable; when it resorts to providing a list of search results from Bing, the quality varies. Google, therefore, represents a much more consistent, reliable option.
Those last two sentences serve the differences in a nutshell. The article concludes with a handy graphic that compares and contrasts Microsoft’s and Google’s voice search pros, cons, and other differences. Will an alliance with Amazon help Bing narrow the distance between it and Google Search? Stay tuned.
Cynthia Murrell, November 3, 2017
Report Assesses Todays Voice Assistant Landscape
November 2, 2017
Having observed the recent boom in AI-powered voice-assistant products, Business Insider’s research service, BI Intelligence, has conducted a study on the issue. The site promotes their findings in their preview, “The Voice Assistant Landscape Report.” Writer Jessica Smith begins with an overview of recent developments: AI has become more accurate; mobile networks are more powerful; and smart appliances (aka the “internet of things”) supply more opportunities for voice-command control. By 2015, she reports, 65% of those with smartphones in the U.S. used voice assistants with those devices. Also, sales of Google Home and Amazon Echo are expected to triple this year, to 24.5 million units. Still, we’re told there remain significant obstacles, both social and technical, to widespread adoption just yet.
Smith shares some findings from the report. Among them:
Technological advances are making voice assistants more capable. These improvements fall into two categories: improvements in AI, specifically natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning; and gains in computing and telecommunications infrastructure, like more powerful smartphones, better cellular networks, and faster cloud computing.
Changes in consumer behavior and habits are also leading to greater adoption. Chief among these are increased overall awareness and a higher level of comfort demonstrated by younger consumers.
The voice assistant landscape is divided between smartphone- and speaker-based assistants. These distinctions, while important now, will lose relevance in the long run as more assistants can be used on both kinds of devices. The primary players in the space are Apple’s Siri, Microsoft’s Cortana, Google Assistant, Amazon’s Alexa, and Samsung’s Viv.
Stakes in the competition for dominance in the voice assistant market are high. As each assistant becomes more interconnected with an ecosystem of devices that it can control, more popular platforms will have a sizable advantage.
Naturally, the article concludes by telling us how to get our hands on the full report. You could invest in the BI Intelligence “All-Access” pass if you are really, really into research reports. Or, you could just purchase and download this particular report here for $495.
Cynthia Murrell, November 2, 2017
Google Home: A Content Vacuum?
October 12, 2017
i read “Google Is Nerfing All Home Minis Because Mine Spied on Everything I Said.” The write up is interesting because it documents a Google product which has a flaw; that is, the Google Home device in question acts like a content vacuum cleaner. The device allegedly copies what it hears without the user’s permission. Google continues to assume me that it wants to do “better”. I think that doing better is a great idea, particularly when a smart assistant functions as a listening and recording device in a way that surprises a user. The original post cited above contains some nice words for Google, screenshots, and a gentle presentation of the alleged spy function. The European Union may find this device an interesting one to evaluate for privacy regulation compliance. I think “nerf” as a verb means “kill” or more colloquially “brick”; that is, the digital equivalent of shooting a horse. Alexa, what does nerfing mean? I think it means that Google is killing this “great idea”.
Stephen E Arnold, October 12, 2017
Amazon Factoids: Match Game for Google, IBM, and MSFT?
September 18, 2017
I am not sure if the data in this Amazon write up are accurate. Navigate to “Prime Day 2017 – Powered by AWS” and make your own decision. I noted these “factoids” about Amazon’s cloud Olympic winning dead lift:
Block Storage – Use of Amazon Elastic Block Store (EBS) grew by 40% year-over-year, with aggregate data transfer jumping to 52 petabytes (a 50% increase) for the day and total I/O requests rising to 835 million (a 30% increase). The team told me that they loved the elasticity of EBS, and that they were able to ramp down on capacity after Prime Day concluded instead of being stuck with it.
NoSQL Database – Amazon DynamoDB requests from Alexa, the Amazon.com sites, and the Amazon fulfillment centers totaled 3.34 trillion, peaking at 12.9 million per second. According to the team, the extreme scale, consistent performance, and high availability of DynamoDB let them meet needs of Prime Day without breaking a sweat.
Stack Creation – Nearly 31,000 AWS CloudFormation stacks were created for Prime Day in order to bring additional AWS resources on line.
API Usage – AWS CloudTrail processed over 50 billion events and tracked more than 419 billion calls to various AWS APIs, all in support of Prime Day.
Configuration Tracking – AWS Config generated over 14 million Configuration items for AWS resources.
Is Amazon reminding customers or competitors that it does more than sell books and buy grocery stores? Is Amazon doing PR?
Stephen E Arnold, September 18, 2017
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