Google Management: What Happens When Science Club Management Methods Emulate Secret Societies?
January 27, 2021
A secret society is one with special handshakes, initiation routines, and a code of conduct which prohibits certain behavior. Sometimes even a secret society has a trusted, respected member whose IQ and personal characteristics are what might be called an “issue.” My hunch is that the write up “Google Hired a Lawyer to Probe Bullying Claims about DeepMind Cofounder Mustafa Suleyman and Shifted His Role” may be a good example — if the real news is indeed accurate — of mostly adult judgment. [The linked document resides behind a paywall … because money.]
As I understand the information in this write up, uber wizard Mustafa Suleyman allegedly engaged in behavior the Googlers found out of bounds. Note, however, that the alleged perpetrator was not terminated. Experts in smart software are tough to locate and hire. Mr. Suleyman was given a lateral arabesque. First defined by Laurence J. Peter is that some management issues can be resolved by shifts to a comparable level of the hierarchy just performing different management or job functions. A poor manager could be encouraged to accept a position as chief quality officer in an organization’s new office in Alert, in the Qikiqtaaluk Region, Nunavut, Canada. (Bring a Google sweater.)
DeepMind is known for crushing a human Go player, who may now be working as a delivery person for Fanji Braised Meat in Preserved Sauce on Zhubashi in Xian, China. The company developed software able to teach itself the game of checkers. Allegedly DeepMind performed magic with protein folding calculations, but it seems to have come up short on problems for solving death and providing artificial general intelligence for a user of Google calendar.
These notable technical accomplishments may have produced a sinkhole brimming with red ink. The 2019 Google financials indicate that about $1 billion in debt has been written off. Revenue appears to be a bit of a challenge for the Googlers working on technology that will generate sustainable revenue for Google’s next 20 years.,
And what about those management methods channeling how high school science clubs operated in the 1950s:
- Generate fog to make it difficult to discern exactly what happened and why Google’s in house people professionals could not gather the information about alleged bullying? Why a lawyer? Why not a private investigative group? There are some darned good ones in merrie olde Angleland.
- Mixed signals are emitted. If something actionable occurred, why not let the aggrieved go through appropriate legal and employee oversight channels to resolve the matter? Answer: Let someone else have the responsibility. The science club does science, not human like stuff.
- The dodge-deflect-apologize pattern is evident to me in rural Kentucky. How long will this adolescent tactic remain functional?
To sum up, the science club did something. What is fuzzy? Why is fuzzy? Keep folks guessing maybe? What will those bright sprouts in the high school science club do next? Put a cow on top of Big Ben?
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2021
KPMG: Ignoring the HR Block Case Example or That Will Not Happen at the Exceptional KPMG
January 19, 2021
Here’s a fact of life at allegedly blue chip consulting and service firms. Miss those billability goal, and you are invited to find your future elsewhere.
I read “KPMG’s Marisa Ferrara Boston embraces Auditing Disruption with Watson.” My immediate reaction was id the capable, dutiful Marisa Ferrara Boston overlook this article in Beyond Search: “Watson and Block: Tax Preparation and Watson.” Probably. Business analysis from rural Kentucky is not on the KPMG list of suggested readings.
The point of my write up was in early 2017:
The idea is that H&R Block paid cash money to IBM to integrate Watson into the H&R Block proprietary tax preparation system.
The problem, based on information available to me, the Block Watson service added complexity to the tax workflow.
Oh, oh.
Here’s what KPMG has in mind:
KPMG has partnered with IBM to integrate Watson Discovery and Watson Machine Learning into the auditing workflow. KPMG uses Watson as a backbone to a question-answering pipeline for auditors and risk analysts, enabling KPMG audit professionals to better review, classify, and search across documents to extract important attribute values.
Interesting idea. Replace billable humans with super smart, reliable, fast IBM software.
What could go wrong?
If the Block IBM deal went nowhere, the resistance came from the tax professionals the system was supposed to help. Block and IBM parted company.
At KPMG, the litmus test will be billability. Unless the smart software generates more billable hours (regardless of how the bean counters fiddle the calculations), the KPMG IBM deal is likely to be found wanting. Nothing creates more waves in a blue chip professional services firm than a partner responsible for a number who misses his/her bonus. Nothing.
This quote from the IBM blog misses the point for a big time consulting firm. IBM writes:
“I feel really lucky to be able to be in a position where I’m still in the fight to be able to help push these things along,” says Marisa. But deployment is only half the battle. When it comes to maintaining innovation in automation over time, “it’s never over,” she says. “These AIs are living. They need to be nurtured in an appropriate environment. They’re not just something that you create and consider the job to be done. If so, you have failed, and probably in a very expensive way.”
Notice that employee revenue is not mentioned. Cost control is not mentioned. The partner bonuses are not mentioned. The ire of an unhappy KPMG client who is “surprised” is not mentioned. What about the managing partner who learns that a baby Enron or Autonomy has been birthed by the energetic Watson? Exciting? Yep. Very.
Perhaps some KPMG wizards who will find themselves working at HR Block will be able to ask their new colleagues, “What did you think of that IBM Watson integration?”
Stephen E Arnold, January 19, 2021
IBM, Canned Noise, but No Moan from the Injured Line Judge: IBM Watson, What Is Happening?
September 10, 2020
As it has done since 2015, IBM has shared details about the AI tech it is using to support the US Open tennis championship. This year’s tournament, though, is different from most due to the pandemic. VentureBeat reports, “IBM Will Use AI to Pipe in Simulated Crowd Noise During the U.S. Open.” We think IBM is making the project more complicated than necessary. A sound bed can be accomplished with sound snips on a laptop. Need sound, click a link. IBM’s solution? Bring an F 35, its support team, and a truck filled with spares. Writer Kyle Wiggers reports:
“The first [addition] is AI Sounds, which aims to recreate the ambient noise normally emanating from the stadium. IBM says it leveraged its AI Highlights platform to digest video from last year’s U.S. Open and rank the ‘excitement level’ of various clips, which it compiled into a reel and classified to give each a crowd reaction score. IBM used hundreds of hours of footage to extract crowd sounds, which it plans to make available to ESPN production teams that will serve it dynamically based on play. How natural these AI-generated sounds will be remains a question. Some fans have taken issue with the artificiality of noises produced by platforms like Electronic Arts’ Sounds of the Stands, which simulates crowd sounds using technology borrowed from the publishers’ FIFA game series. The NBA has reportedly considered mixing in audio from NBA 2K during its broadcasts, and the NFL is expected to use artificial fan noise for its live games this year if they’re played in empty stadiums.”
Whether fake crowd noise sounds authentic, do viewers really want to pretend there is a live crowd when there is not? Perhaps; the pandemic is affecting people in strange ways. There has even been a call to bring back canned laughter while it is too risky to gather live studio audiences for sit coms.
The other technology IBM hopes will garner attention at the Open is Watson Discovery, which we’re told will facilitate tennis debates between online viewers by feeding them questions and researching the validity of resulting arguments. The same platform will supply factoids about upcoming matches through the smartphone app. It seems Watson is auditioning for the job of sport commentator.
Ouch! Was that Watson or the line judge? Watson? Watson?
Cynthia Murrell, September 10, 2020
IBM: Watson, What Is Happening?
May 22, 2020
I like to think about the wisdom of IBM Watson. A large company developed smart software able to beat mere humans in a TV game show. Amazing, but I asked myself after Watson “won” jeopardy, “What about that post production process?”
Now IBM’s actual production process is visible. A new Big Blue dog Arvind Krishna is controlling the pack of huskies. Such is the success of the racing sled in a time of Covid that IBM will not cut its five percent dividend, according to the “real news” service Fox Business.
IBM hedged by declining to make a forecast for 2020. IBM’s future is bright, but apparently it is not that bright.
“IBM to Cut Thousands of Jobs As Coronavirus Plays Out” reveals that some surplus employees will be reduced in force. Fox reported:
“IBM’s work in a highly competitive marketplace requires flexibility to constantly remix to high-value skills, and our workforce decisions are made in the long-term interests of our business. Recognizing the unique current conditions, IBM is offering subsidized medical coverage to all affected U.S. employees through June 2021” a company spokesman said in a statement.
If one is not terminated, what’s the people process at IBM look like? Think bare knuckles boxing maybe? “IBM Says It’s Giving Employees the Opportunity to Compete for Positions” explains:
“As part of IBM’s regular assessment of how we work, we are simplifying how we operate to position our business for high value growth opportunities and better meet client demand,” a spokesperson said. “Employees will have the opportunity to re-skill and compete for positions where roles are available.”
Unlike some Silicon Valley outfits, having employees work from home is the first step (a generally gentle one) in eliminating surplus. The office space will go and then the less productive work from homers will be invited to a Zoom meeting for a “Find Your Future” elsewhere session.
Big Blue is more direct, more gladiatorial: Get terminated or get into the octagon. Fight Ralph, the slightly overweight and near sighted OmniFind expert for a paycheck.
Wouldn’t it be more interesting to have Watson battle Facebook, Google, and Microsoft in a smart software battle to prove which company is Number One?
Watson, what do you think of my suggestion? IBM’s approach to returning to glory is interesting, but it seems old fashioned: Layoffs and internal competition. Very Darwin.
Watson, you know about Darwin, right?
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
Google Ad Revenue: What Happens When the One Trick Pony Gets Seedy Toe?
May 1, 2020
Seedy toe?
What’s that? If you live in Kentucky, home of the abandoned Derby you know. If not, your child’s pony is going to be in discomfort. And the costs? You don’t want to know what large animal vets in horse country charge, do you?
“CEO Sundar Pichai Spells Out Alphabet’s Positives, but COVID-19 Damage to Ad Revenues Is Only Going to Get Worse” presents a key point articulated by the chief Googler Sundar Pichai:
In March, we experienced a significant and sudden slowdown in ad revenues. The timing of the slowdown correlated to the locations and sectors impacted by the virus and related shutdown orders…Overall, recovery in ad spend will depend on a return to economic activity.
The article also quotes the Google chief financial officer as observing: The second quarter will be “a difficult one.” Google’s CFO did not elaborate on Google cost control measures. Yep, cost control. Important DarkCyber believes.
But back to seedy toe and a lame pony.
The bulk of Google revenues come from online advertising. Amazon is doing a good job of capturing product search and that means that Amazon product ad revenue is likely to track those clicks. That’s bad news for Google as the bad news from the virus disruption affects large swaths of the global economy. Facebook’s ad revenues may have taken a hit in the most recent quarter, but that outstanding, other-directed manager Mark Zuckerberg hungers for more ad revenue as well.
Google may be able to kick sand in the face of dead tree outfits, but the datasphere is a different sort of construct.
Limping ponies will not be invited to parade at birthday parties. Lame ponies can be expensive to make well again.
Here in Kentucky there are only so many places at the Old Friends Farm. Then what? A one way ticket to Fiji? Ponies are a treat of sorts in Oceania. Bula!
Google needs to avoid seedy toe. Amazon and Facebook are not ponies. These outfits are tigers with a hunger for easy prey; for example, a lame pony.
Stephen E Arnold, May 1, 2020
What Happens When MBAs Embrace Open Source?
February 24, 2020
Paul Stovell, founder of the open source product-deployment platform Octopus Deploy, explains in a blog post, “Why We Terminated Our Partnership with Microsoft—Re: Next Decade of Open Source.” Microsoft tends to adopt ideas from other projects and incorporate them into its behemoth software ecosystem. Not surprisingly, it does not make the effort to inform consumers where their ideas came from. In fact, such developments tend to eclipse the original product. We’re told:
“There’s a saying in business that if you want to displace a competitor, you need to build a product that’s at least 10x better. It’s not enough to be ‘just as good’. Customers will say ‘why should I use you, we’ve been successful with ‘. You need a really good reason to overcome that. However, in the .NET ecosystem, if you’re Microsoft, that’s not generally true. If Microsoft wants to make a document database, a messaging framework, a unit test framework or a deployment automation tool, it only needs to be 1/10th as good before the conversation immediately becomes ‘why should we use you over the Microsoft thing?’ Microsoft become the default option, even if they’re the last to the game.”
The post notes some ways Microsoft could play more fairly, but also describes why they are unlikely to do so. Octopus Deploy had maintained a healthy working relationship with Microsoft’s Azure team—until Azure Pipelines came out looking remarkably similar to Octopus. It was bundled with Visual Studio and promoted heavily. Stovell writes:
“We suddenly found ourselves competing with a product from Microsoft that looked similar, that was being given away (perception, at least), that was integrated with VS, and that was being pushed in every Azure keynote. Overnight it became the default. We were exhibiting at Build 2016 at the time much of this was announced, and I remember people coming to our booth asking ‘so why should we use you over the Microsoft thing?’. The ‘Microsoft thing’ was announced only 5 minutes prior!”
Is this the future of open source—is it doomed to be co-opted by companies? Maybe it is too late?
Cynthia Murrell, February 24, 2020
What Happens When Economists Think about AI?
January 27, 2020
Navigate to “The Economics of AI Today” and you may find some answers to this question. The article is a collection of conference notes assembled for publication in the Gradient. No single answer is offered, presumably because economic information does not provide clarity.
What emerges from information presented are several themes. DarkCyber noted these as interesting:
- Predictions. These will become “better.”
- Employment. It is good to be smart, rich, and AI savvy.
- Interconnectedness. The idea is that monopolistic services are under the glossy technology surface.
- Changes are coming: Research, medicine, etc.
- Benefits. Yes, less discrimination and the unicorns are romping in a green pasture.
- Skynet or a dark future. Nope.
DarkCyber found the article and its ideas a reminder about the vagaries of professional economists. I mean just look at the major economies. Humming right along, propelled by…economists and some lesser disciplines.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2020
Amazon Alexa: What Happened? Who Knew?
November 26, 2019
I read a somewhat disingenuous tale of Amazon’s Alexa. Navigate to “We Never Anticipated Alexa to Have Such a Profound Impact on Society” and make your own determination. Note: You will need to disable your ad blocker to view this article from Hindu Business Line. Lucky you! Extra work. Surprises abound.
The main idea in the story is that Amazon created Alexa. Everything that took place was a bit of a shock. That includes, I suppose, the surveillance potential, the data stream value, and the willingness of people to put Jeff Bezos’ ear in their homes and offices. Yep, a surprise. Wow.
The write up includes a statement or two from an Amazonian, who remains surprised; for instance:
We have onboarded a lot of such training data. Hindi seemed like the next logical step. We’ll keep pushing the envelope. What has really caught our attention in India is the fact that Alexa and Echo devices are used by a lot of schools to teach kids English, general knowledge and other subjects. This is really inspiring and we will try bringing services and skills to enhance this process. We never anticipated this device which started off as a fancy geeky Star Trek-inspired tool to have such a profound impact on the society. Today, we are trying to make it more useful to students, teachers, people with vision challenges and so on.
Ah, surprise.
Stephen E Arnold, November 26, 2019
IBM: Watson, What Happened?
October 18, 2018
I read “IBM Surprises Investors with Quarterly Revenue Decline.” The write up states:
The company broke its three-quarter string of revenue growth with a 2 percent drop in total revenue to $18.76 billion, down from $19.15 billion a year ago.
The article pointed out:
Most notably, Cognitive Solutions revenues fell 5 percent, to $4.15 billion, against analyst estimates of $4.3 billion. That division, which includes IBM’s analytics business as well as the Watson cognitive computing platform, was pulled down by weakness in some horizontal categories such as collaboration, commerce and talent management.
Watson, what happened?
But IBM pointed out that it is starting to see “green shoots.” I think this means that growth is evident in some sectors.
IBM is a consulting company which still sells mainframes. Enough said.
Stephen E Arnold, October 18, 2018
What Has Happened to Enterprise Search?
June 28, 2018
I read “Enterprise Search in 2018: What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been.” I found the information presented interesting. The thesis is that enterprise search has been on a journey almost like a “Wizard of Oz” experience.
The idea of consolidation, from my point of view, boils down to executives who want to cash in, get out, and move on. The reasons are not far to seek: Over promising and under delivering, financial manipulations, and positioning a nuts and bolts utility as something that solves information problems.
Some, maybe many, licensees of proprietary enterprise search systems may have viewed their investment as an opportunity that delivered an unexpected but inevitable outcome. Where is that lush scenery? Where’s the beach?
The reality is that enterprise search vendors were aced by Shay Banon. His Act II of Compass: A Finding Story was Elasticsearch and the company Elastic. Why not use free and open source software. At least the code gets some bugs fixed unlike old school proprietary enterprise search systems. Bug fixes? Yep, good luck with your Fast Search & Retrieval ESP platform idiosyncrasies.
The landscape today is a bit like the volcanic transformation of Hawaii’s Vacationland. Real estate agents will be explaining that the lava flows have created new beach views, promising that eruptions are a low probability event.
The write up does not highlight one simple fact: Enterprise search has given way to “roll up” services or what I call “meta-plays.” The idea is that search is tucked inside systems like Diffeo, Palantir Gotham, and other “intelligence” platforms.
Why aren’t these enterprise grade solutions sold as “enterprise search” or “enterprise business intelligence and discovery solutions”?
The answer is that the information retrieval nest has been marginalized by the actions of vendors stretching back to the Smart system and to the present with “proprietary” solutions which actually include open source technology. These systems are anchored in the past.
Consider Diffeo?
Why offer enterprise search when one can provide a solution that delivers information in context, provides collaboration tools, and displays information in different ways with a single mouse click?
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