Smart Software: Maybe Not What It Seems
January 27, 2019
Fast computers, memory, and bandwidth can make stupid software look smart. That’s one take away from Big Think’s AI debunker “Why A.I. Is a Big Fat Lie.” Marketers at the likes of IBM, Palantir Technologies, and similar companies are likely to take an opposing view. These firms’ software are magical, reduce the time required to make sense of information, and deliver the “fix” in to the “find, fix, and finish” crowd.
Among the weak spots in the AI defenders’ suit of armor are:
- AI as a buzzword is “BS”. I assume this acronym does not mean Beyond Search
- Machine learning is one thing but it is not autonomous. Humans are needed
- AI won’t terminate me.
The article tackles talking computers and fancy concepts like neural nets.
I learned:
There’s literally no meaningful definition whatsoever. AI poses as a field, but it’s actually just a fanciful brand. As a supposed field, AI has many competing definitions, most of which just boil down to “smart computer.” I must warn you, do not look up “self-referential” in the dictionary. You’ll get stuck in an infinite loop.
The problem is that venture capitalists desperately want a next big thing, lots of money, and opportunities to give talks at Davos. Therefore, smart software is, by golly, going down the bullet train’s rails.
The entrepreneurs who often believe that their innovation has cracked the AI problem have to tell the world. Enter marketers, PR people, biz dev types with actual suits or sport jackets. These folks cheer for the smart software team.
Finally, there are the overwhelmed, confused, and panicked software procurement teams who have to find a way to cut costs and improve efficiency, yada yada yada. The objective is to acquire something new, study it, realign, and repeat the process. Ah, complex smart software. A thing of beauty, right?
Take a look at this Big Think article. Interesting stuff.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2019
Thomson Reuters: Content Slicing and Dicing Chops People
December 6, 2018
A certain database company raked in the dough by pitching XML slicing and dicing as the way to piles of cash, happy customers, and reduced editorial costs. Thomson Reuters was “into” XML inspired slicing and dicing. Now the chopping up has moved from disparate content to staff.
According to a real news organization, the article “Thomson Reuters to cut 3,200 jobs by 2020, offer fewer products” states:
Thomson Reuters said it plans to cut its workforce by 12 percent, or 3,200 positions, by 2020 as part of a push to reduce spending.
Capital outlays as a share of revenue will be down about 30 percent by 2020, Thomson Reuters said Tuesday in a presentation for investors. By that year, Thomson Reuters expects to have about 11 percent fewer products and pare its number of locations by 30 percent. The pullback underscores efforts to exert cost discipline after third-quarter revenue came in 2.3 percent less than analysts had expected.
TR revenues have been less than exciting. Despite management’s heroic efforts, the company has not been able to shake the money tree with the vigor some stakeholders expect.
Thus, slicing and dicing of staff and products is underway. Nothing like a hefty reduction in force or RIF to brighten the individuals who can now look forward to finding their future elsewhere.
The larger question is, “What will TR do if the staff reductions and new points of focus do not generate revenue?” The account, lawyer, and MBA infused senior management may have to look for different sources of inspiration; for example:
- Seeking to pull the company into new markets with must have products and services. Not easy, I know, but TR will have to do more than follow the well worn grooves in the business models which are like the streets of Pompeii
- Selling itself to another large professional publishing outfit. What about a Thomson Elsevier or (perish the thought) an Ebsco Thomson?
- Selling the bits and pieces to investment banks or small companies eager to capitalize on TR’s missed penalty kicks. What would Bloomberg pay for the terminal business and maybe the Palantir inspired services? Perhaps Factset would toss a soccer boot on the pitch?
- Modifying its executive compensation methods so that TR unit managers actually cooperate on certain opportunities and initiatives.
There are, of course, other options, but many of these have been tried before; for instance, new units, new senior managers, new acquisitions, and new technologies.
Net net: TR may have to start thinking about life as a smaller, leaner, less profitable operation. Lord Thomson of Fleet may not be able to return and infuse the company. He’s needed in my opinion.
Stephen E Arnold, December 6, 2018
Amazon Opens a New Front in the Cloud Wars
November 30, 2018
A Microsoft “expert” has explained why Azure, the Microsoft cloud service, why the Azure cloud failed Thanksgiving week. Like the explanation for the neutralizing of some customers’ Windows 10 machines, three problems arose. You can work through the explanation at this link, but you may, like me, remain skeptical about Microsoft’s ability to keep its cloud sunny. Key point: Microsoft apologizes for its mistakes. Yada yada yada.
At about the same time, Amazon announced that its cloud service uses its own custom designed Arm server processors. How will Microsoft compete with a service that is not without flaws but promises lower costs? The GeekWire write up states:
Vice president of infrastructure Peter DeSantis introduced the AWS Graviton Processor Monday night, adding a third chip option for cloud customers alongside instances that use processors from Intel and AMD. The company did not provide a lot of details about the processor itself, but DeSantis said that it was designed for scale-out workloads that benefit from a lot of servers chipping away at a problem.
From our vantage point in Harrod’s Creek, the Amazon approach seems useful for certain types of data mining and data analytics tasks. Could these be the type of tasks which are common when using systems like Palantir Gotham’s?
The key point, however, is “low cost.”
But the important strategic move is that Amazon is now in the chip business. What other hardware are the folks at the ecommerce site exploring? Amazon network hardware?
Microsoft makes fuzzy tablet-laptops, right?
Stephen E Arnold, November 30, 2018
Amazon: Making the Fuzzy Laptop Maker Look Silly
November 29, 2018
In an upcoming DarkCyber and in my new series of lectures for LE and intel professionals, I will be exploring the implications of Amazon’s public admissions that the company is the beastie in the policeware kennel. The “few words are better” Jeff Barr has summarized some of the more public announcements in “AWS launches, Previews, and Pre-Announcements” which is a useful, if incomplete, checklist of what’s happening at the Zon. (Where is that policeware info by the way?)
But for Beyond Search and its handful of very gentle readers I want to point out that Microsoft’s furry laptop, Azure outages, and the ineptitude of updating Windows 10 looks bad.
Consider what Amazon has been doing for the past five years or so: Developing not one but two different custom chips, building a range of machine learning tools including free for now training programs, and rolling out features and function to keep the often creaky Amazon Web Services engine chugging along.
Microsoft has the furry laptop thing. Oh, I almost forgot. Microsoft brought back the Microsoft “IntelliMouse Explorer.” Plus Microsoft continues to play more nicely with Amazon Alexa as it tries to make sure it can be Number Two in the big cloud game. Google, HP, IBM, and a number of companies whose names I struggle to remember want to knock of the big dog. The breed is a Bezos I believe.
Net net: Amazon seems to be taking bits and pieces from the Google, Palantir, and IBM playbook. Chef Bezos mixes the ingredients and rolls out a mind boggling array of new stuff.
But which company looks a little behind the times? Here in Harrod’s Creek we see Microsoft and its fuzzy laptop tablet thing. By the way, how does one keep fuzzy stuff free from dirt, bacteria, and burrito juice?
Amazon probably sells some type of cleaner. Why not do a product search on Amazon. Product searches account for a hefty chuck of online search action. Perhaps there is an Amazon Basics to clean the furry gizmo? Better yet, there are ads on Amazon. Ads which once were the exclusive domain of the Google.
Google. That’s another story one can research on a furry Microsoft device using an “old is new mouse” too.
Stephen E Arnold, November 29, 2018
Thomson Reuters on a Privacy International Beat
November 26, 2018
I know that commercial database publishers can be profitable operations. But in order to keep pace with erosion of some traditional revenue streams, some professional publishers have been working to generate new databases which can be licensed to certain government agencies. In most cases, a researcher or librarian will not have these electronic files in their toolkit.
Privacy International published “Who Supplies the Data, Analysis, and Tech Infrastructure to US Immigration Authorities?” The report is available without charge, but I suggest that you download it promptly. Certain reports about some topics can go offline without notice.
I don’t want to dig through the references to references to Palantir. The information about that company is not particularly fresh. However, Privacy International has gathered some useful examples of Thomson Reuters’ products and services to law enforcement and other government agencies.
Privacy International seems unaware that many LE and intel entities routinely outsource work to third part, license a wide range of numeric and factual data, and tap into the talent pools at third party firms.
The Privacy International report does not provide much information about Thomson Reuters’ use of the Palantir technology. That might be an interesting topic for some young researcher to explore. We will do a short item about some of the Privacy International information in the DarkCyber for December 11, 2018.
Stephen E Arnold, November 26, 2018
Unstructured Data: Hey, Smart Software Is Supposed to Help
November 25, 2018
I read “5 Critical Steps for Identifying the Value in Your Unstructured Information.” The points in the write up are fine. In fact, anyone who has worked with unstructured data in the form of emails, tweets, Facebook posts, intercepts, etc. knows that a lot of work is required.
My problem with the write up in Datanami is that smart software keeps its nose tucked under the covers. I thought that smart software was able to perform collection (er, that’s a step not included in the list of five steps but let’s move on).
Smart software is supposed to discover important information. That’s fine but what is the process for configuring the smart software, checking to make sure that the system outputs useful or semi useful data, and presents it in a form which does not trigger another wave of manual effort? There are some systems which perform discovery; however, like today’s driverless autos, a human has to have his or her hands on the wheel. Otherwise a dead pedestrian or a dead driver can be an outcome. I recall a Tesla nuked a white truck because its LIDAR thought the truck was a cloud. Yeah, right.
The reality is that generalizations about what’s is required to make sense of unstructured data are only marginally useful. Anyone licensing a smart system from outfits like IBM, Palantir, BAE Systems, Textron, etc. must be prepared for the surprises which luck in the software.
For instance:
- Much of the work is manual. How does data get into Palantir Gotham?
- Setting up the system is iterative work. Have you ever heard about tuning?
- Creating and enforcing procedures for keeping data clean and happy is work. Automatic feeds and real time flows are super, but what happens when high value data is filtered and put in an exception folder?
- Analysis is work that needs a trained, attentive, subject matter expert. Who makes sense of the puzzle pieces and assembles them?
The real world requires that magic be confined to children’s books. Using the tools available today do not eliminate the need for manual work.
Smart software is a knee brace. The human has to carry the load. Omitting this reality creates false expectations and puts lives at risk or decision making in a higher risk setting. Smart software can do some functions well. Not all functions are smart.
Stephen E Arnold, November 25, 2018
Data Science Gets Political
November 20, 2018
With the near ubiquitous use of big data science in every industry short of rock hunting, it was inevitable that there would be blowback. Recently, many tech companies began to feel some political heat due to their involvement with immigration agencies. We learned more from a recent Mercury News story, “Bay Area Cities May Boycott Tech Giants Contracting With ICE.”
According to the story:
“The policy comes as the local immigration debate shifts toward several prominent tech companies — including Palo Alto’s Palantir Technologies, Vigilant Solutions in Livermore and Amazon, which have been criticized for contracting with federal immigration agencies. Last week, advocates descended on Salesforce’s annual conference in San Francisco with an 14-foot-tall cage symbolizing ICE detention to protest the company’s contract with Customs and Border Protection.”
If this sounds a little farfetched or even unlikely, pay close attention to similar actions in Europe. There, when people pushed back against the intersection of politics and big data, it began to impact finances. And when pocketbooks begin to suffer, you can guarantee companies take notice. We don’t yet know if the same will happen in America, but we have a hunch this issue won’t vanish quietly.
Patrick Roland, November 20, 2018
DarkCyber for November 6, 2018, Is Now Available: Part Two, Amazon’s Disruptive Thrust
November 6, 2018
DarkCyber for November 6, 2018, is now available at www.arnoldit.com/wordpress and on Vimeo at https://vimeo.com/298831585
In this program, DarkCyber explains how Amazon is using open source software and proprietary solutions to reinvent IBM’s concept of vendor lock in.
Decades ago, IBM used mainframes and their proprietary hardware and software to create a barrier to change for government agencies using the systems. Amazon’s approach is to provide a platform which makes use of open source software to allow the US government to make necessary changes to software.
Amazon also offers value added functionality ranging from hardware like the DeepLens smart surveillance devices to patented analytics for real time cross correlation of data. Government agencies using these proprietary components will find themselves dependent on Amazon despite the support for open source software. Stephen E Arnold, author of CyberOSINT, said: “Amazon’s use of open source makes it easy for customers to make changes to the Amazon policeware system. However, Amazon’s value adding proprietary software allows Amazon to lock in government agencies who want access to Amazon’s most advanced services, features, and functions. Amazon wants to reinvent IBM’s approach to lock in for the 21st century.”
An added twist is that many of the providers of policeware and advanced intelligence systems use the Amazon cloud platform to deliver their products and services to US government agencies. Examples include Palantir Technologies, 4iQ and Webhose. Companies leveraging Amazon’s platform have an advantage over firms which use other cloud solutions. However, in the longer terms, Amazon can exercise control over vendors, partners, and integrators as part of a lock in strategy tuned to the 21st century computing realities.
Watch for the third part of this four part series on November 13, 2018.
Kenny Toth, November 6, 2018
Cognos Gets a Rework
October 25, 2018
Cognos? Cognos?
Oh, right, that’s the Canadian analytics company founded in 1969. I think that works out to 49 years young. IBM has owned Cognos since 2008, Now after a decade of vast investment, savvy upgrades, and stellar management decisions, Cognos is going to get even better. Think of it as a US professional football player from the 1960s, suiting up and starting for the Kansas City Chiefs or the Chicago Bears. That’s a strategy that the opposing teams will find surprising.
Same with advanced analytics. Quid, Palantir, Recorded Future! Are you nervous about the new and improved Cognos revealed in “IBM Integrates Business Intelligence and Data Science with New Major Update to Cognos Analytics.”
What’s the fountain of youth?
According to the write up:
… Storytelling… allows users to create interactive narratives by assembling visualizations into a sequence and then enhancing it with media, web pages, images, shapes, and test.
And:
Smart exploration will help users be able to better understand what’s behind their results by analyzing it with machine learning and pattern detection.d then enhancing it with media, web pages, images, shapes, and test.
And:
advanced analytics that include predictive analytics, the ability to identify data patterns and variables driving a certain outcome, smart annotation, and natural language generated insights of data.
But the number one enhancement is… wait for it….
The key new features of this release are a new AI Assistant and pattern detection capability. The AI Assistant enables users to make queries and then receive results in natural language. According to IBM, this makes it easier to not only look for answers, but understand where they come in.
Ah, IBM. Making a product that is half a century young even more appealing to millennials.
Stephen E Arnold, October 25, 2018
Amazon: Not Yet Immune to Staff Push Back
October 18, 2018
I recall reading that Jeff Bezos suggested that high technology companies work for the US government. I thought about that suggestion, which was probably ignored by Google and Microsoft, when I read “I’m an Amazon Employee. My Company Shouldn’t Sell Facial Recognition Tech to Police.” Maybe Amazon will give in to employee democracy. On the other hand, the situation will be managed and employees encouraged to take one of the two paths identified below.
The write up explains (in and around the ads covering up the Medium article’s page):
A couple weeks ago, my co-workers delivered a letter to this effect, signed by over 450 employees, to Jeff Bezos and other executives. The letter also contained demands to kick Palantir, the software firm that powers much of ICE’s deportation and tracking program, off Amazon Web Services and to institute employee oversight for ethical decisions.
I am confident that these employees believe that the world’s richest man should do what a “group” of employees want.
On the other hand, Amazon has been chugging along in the policeware sector for a number of years. Rekognition and the Palantir Technologies’ use of the Amazon platform are pretty tiny fish. Amazon, as I demonstrate in my forthcoming four part series about Amazon’s policeware. (You can view the four short DarkCyber videos beginning on Tuesday, October 30, 2018. The second program becomes available on November 6, the third on November 13, and the final program on November 20.)
Amazon has an active contract with a major intelligence agency. Specialist vendors of policeware use the Amazon platform to serve their government customers with specific technology solutions. Examples range from an index of the Dark Web, social media, and the Surface Web updated hourly to crunching numbers to identify persons of interest involved in specific matters of interest to the United States. Furthermore, Amazon has been assembling or “growing” its own vendor, integrator, and contractor ecosystem. Furthermore Amazon is providing policeware services to certain UK agencies. I have heard that there is keen interest in the Amazon policeware services, the streaming data marketplace, the Sagemaker machine learning system, and the advanced analytics the company has integrated into the policeware suite. Do you think tax authorities and regulatory authorities will be interested in some of the policeware capabilities? The grousing employees are not I would wager.
Why?
Watch the DarkCyber Amazon policeware video series.
To sum up, I think that employees who object to what their employers pay them to do have some choices to make:
- Remain on the job. Do good work. Accept their paychecks, bonuses, healthcare and retirement benefits, and any perks that come their way from the employer.
- Find their future elsewhere.
- Transfer to a warehouse job in Indiana or Kentucky and enjoy the minimum wage, the facility breaks, and the opportunity to build those biceps.
i suppose I am old fashioned, but when once accepts money and has a job description which spells out what one does, I am not too keen on spending much time listening to suggestions about what products to make or what contracts to pursue.
Watch for the Amazon video series which is an exclusive on DarkCyber, my weekly news program about policeware, cybercrime, and related subjects. Links to the video will appear in this blog on each Tuesday.
Stephen E Arnold, October 18, 2018
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
