Fat Apps. What Happened to the Cloud?

February 5, 2012

If it seems like a step backward, that’s because it is: Network Computing declares,  “Fat Apps Are Where It’s At.” At least for now.

Writer Mike Fratto makes the case that, in the shift from desktop to mobile, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Cloud-based applications that run only the user interface on mobile devices are a great way to save space– if you can guarantee constant wireless access to the Web. That’s not happening yet. Wi-Fi is unreliable, and wireless data plans with their data caps can become very expensive very quickly.

Besides, says Fratto, services that aim to place the familiar desktop environment onto mobile devices, like Citrix XenApp or VMware ThinApp, are barking up the wrong tree. The article asserts:

There isn’t the screen real estate available on mobile devices–certainly not on phones–to populate menus and pull downs. . . . But that is how desktop apps are designed. Lots of features displayed for quick access because you have the room to do it while still providing enough screen space to write a document or work on a spreadsheet. Try using Excel as a thin app on your phone or tablet. See how long it takes for you to get frustrated.

So, Fratto proposes “fat apps” as the temporary alternative, applications designed for mobile use with local storage that let you continue to work without a connection. Bloatware is back, at least until we get affordable, universal wireless access worked out.

I am getting some app fatigue. What’s the next big thing?

Cynthia Murrell, February 5, 2012

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Amazon: Big Bucks from Bogus Books

May 3, 2024

Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_tNote: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.

Anyone who shops for books on Amazon should proceed with caution now that “Fake AI-Generated Books Swarm Amazon.” Good e-Reader’s Navkiran Dhaliwal cites an article from Wired as she describes one author’s somewhat ironic experience:

“In 2019, AI researcher Melanie Mitchell wrote a book called ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans’. The book explains how AI affects us. ChatGPT sparked a new interest in AI a few years later, but something unexpected happened. A fake version of Melanie’s book showed up on Amazon. People were trying to make money by copying her work. … Melanie Mitchell found out that when she looked for her book on Amazon, another ebook with the same title was released last September. This other book was much shorter, only 45 pages. This book copied Melanie’s ideas but in a weird and not-so-good way. The author listed was ‘Shumaila Majid,’ but there was no information about them – no bio, picture, or anything online. You’ll see many similar books summarizing recently published titles when you click on that name. The worst part is she could not find a solution to this problem.”

It took intervention from WIRED to get Amazon to remove the algorithmic copycat. The magazine had Reality Defender confirm there was a 99% chance it was fake then contacted Amazon. That finally did the trick. Still, it is unclear whether it is illegal to vend AI-generated “summaries” of existing works and sell them under the original title. Regardless, asserts Mitchell, Amazon should take steps to prevent the practice. Seems reasonable.

And Amazon cares. No, really. Really it does.

Cynthia Murrell, April 29, 2024

Search Metrics: One Cannot Do Anything Unless One Finds the Info

May 2, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

The search engine optimization crowd bamboozled people with tales of getting to be number one on Google. The SEO experts themselves were tricked. The only way to appear on the first page of search results is to buy an ad. This is the pay-to-play approach to being found online. Now a person cannot do anything, including getting in the building to start one’s first job without searching. The company sent the future wizard an email with the access code. If the new hire cannot locate the access code, she cannot work without going through hoops. Most work or fun is similar. Without an ability to locate specific information online, a person is going to be locked out or just lost in space.

image

The new employee cannot search her email to locate the access code. No job for her. Thanks, MSFT Copilot, a so-so image without the crazy Grandma says, “You can’t get that image, fatso.”

I read a chunk of content marketing called “Predicted 25% Drop In Search Volume Remains Unclear.” The main idea (I think) is that with generative smart software, a person no longer has to check with Googzilla to get information. In some magical world, a person with a mobile phone will listen as the smart software tells a user what information is needed. Will Apple embrace Microsoft AI or Google AI? Will it matter to the user? Will the number of online queries decrease for Google if Apple decides it loves Redmond types more than Googley types? Nope.

The total number of online queries will continue to go up until the giant search purveyors collapse due to overburdened code, regulatory hassles, or their own ineptitude. But what about the estimates of mid tier consulting firms like Gartner? Hello, do you know that Gartner is essentially a collection of individuals who do the bidding of some work-from-home, self-anointed experts?

Face facts. There is one alleged monopoly controlling search. That is Google. It will take time for an upstart to siphon significant traffic from the constellation of Google services. Even Google’s own incredibly weird approach to managing the company will not be able to prevent people from using the service. Every email search is a search. Every direction in Waze is a search. Every click on a suggested YouTube TikTok knock off is a search. Every click on anything Google is a search. To tidy up the operation, assorted mechanisms for analyzing user behavior provide a fingerprint of users. Advertisers, even if they know they are being given a bit of a casino frippery, have to decide among Amazon, Meta, or, or … Sorry. I can’t think of another non-Google option.

If you want traffic, you can try to pull off a Black Swan event as OpenAI did. But for most organizations, if you want traffic, you pay Google. What about SEO? If the SEO outfit is a Google partner, you are on the Information Highway to Google’s version of Madison Avenue.

But what about the fancy charts and graphs which show Google’s vulnerability? Google’s biggest enemy is Google’s approach to managing its staff, its finances, and its technology. Bing or any other search competitor is going to find itself struggling to survive. Don’t believe me? Just ask the founder of Search2, Neeva, or any other search vendor crushed under Googzilla’s big paw. Unclear? Are you kidding me? Search volume is going to go up until something catastrophic happens. For now, buy Google advertising for traffic. Spend some money with Meta. Use Amazon if you sell fungible things. Google owns most of the traffic. Adjust and quit yapping about some fantasy cooked up by so-called experts.

Stephen E Arnold, May 2, 2024

Big Tech and Their Software: The Tent Pole Problem

May 1, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

I remember a Boy Scout camping trip. I was a Wolf Scout at the time, and my “pack” had the task of setting up our tent for the night. The scout master was Mr. Johnson, and he left it us. The weather did not cooperate; the tent pegs pulled out in the wind. The center tent pole broke. We stood in the rain. We knew the badge for camping was gone, just like a dry place to sleep. Failure. Whom could we blame? I suggested, “McKinsey & Co.” I had learned that third-parties were usually fall guys. No one knew what I was talking about.

4 27 tent collapse

Okay, ChatGPT, good enough.

I thought about the tent pole failure, the miserable camping experience, and the need to blame McKinsey or at least an entity other than ourselves. The memory surfaced as I read “Laws of Software Evolution.” The write up sets forth some ideas which may not be firm guidelines like those articulated by the World Court, but they are about as enforceable.

Let’s look at the laws explicated in the essay.

The first law is that software is to support a real-world task. As result (a corollary maybe?) is that the software has to evolve. That is the old chestnut ““No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.” The problem is change, which consumes money and time. As a result, original software is wrapped, peppered with calls to snappy new modules designed to fix up or extend the original software.

The second law is that when changes are made, the software construct becomes more complex. Complexity is what humans do. A true master makes certain processes simple. Software has artists, poets, and engineers with vision. Simple may not be a key component of the world the programmer wants to create. Thus, increasing complexity creates surprises like unknown dependencies, sluggish performance, and a giant black hole of costs.

The third law is not explicitly called out like Laws One and Two. Here’s my interpretation of the “lurking law,” as I have termed it:

Code can be shaped and built upon.

My reaction to this essay is positive, but the link to evolution eludes me. The one issue I want to raise is that once software is built, deployed, and fiddled with it is like a river pier built by Roman engineers.  Moving the pier or fixing it so it will persist is a very, very difficult task. At some point, even the Roman concrete will weather away. The bridge or structure will fall down. Gravity wins. I am okay with software devolution.

The future, therefore, will be stuffed with software breakdowns. The essay makes a logical statement:

… we should embrace the malleability of code and avoid redesign processes at all costs!

Sorry. Won’t happen. Woulda, shoulda, and coulda cannot do the job.

Stephen E Arnold, May 1, 2024

NSO Pegasus: No Longer Flying Below the Radar

April 29, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

I read “AP Exclusive: Polish Opposition Senator Hacked with Spyware.” I remain fearful of quoting the AP or Associated Press. I think it is a good business move to have an 89 year old terrified of an American “institution, don’t you. I think I am okay if I tell you the AP recycled a report from the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab. Once again, the researchers have documented the use of what I call “intelware” by a nation state. The AP and other “real” news outfits prefer the term “spyware.” I think it has more sizzle, but I am going to put NSO Group’s mobile phone system and method in the category of intelware. The reason is that specialized software like Pegasus gathers information for a nation’s intelligence entities. Well, that’s the theory. The companies producing these platforms and tools want to answer such questions as “Who is going to undermine our interests?” or “What’s the next kinetic action directed at our facilities?” or “Who is involved in money laundering, human trafficking, or arms deals?”

image

Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Cutting down the cycles for free art, are you?

The problem is that specialized software is no longer secret. The Citizen Lab and the AP have been diligent in explaining how some of the tools work and what type of information can be gathered. My personal view is that information about these tools has been converted into college programming courses, open source software tools, and headline grabbing articles. I know from personal experience that most people do not have a clue how data from an iPhone can be exfiltrated, cross correlated, and used to track down those who would violate the laws of a nation state. But, as the saying goes, information wants to be free. Okay, it’s free. How about that?

The write up contains an interesting statement. I want to note that I am not plagiarizing, undermining advertising sales, or choking off subscriptions. I am offering the information as a peg on which to hang some observations. Here’s the quote:

“My heart sinks with each case we find,” Scott-Railton [a senior researcher at UT’s Citizen Lab] added. “This seems to be confirming our worst fear: Even when used in a democracy, this kind of spyware has an almost immutable abuse potential.”

Okay, we have malware, a command-and-control system, logs, and a variety of delivery mechanisms.

I am baffled because malware is used by both good and bad actors. Exactly what does the University of Toronto and the AP want to happen. The reality is that once secret information is leaked, it becomes the Teflon for rapidly diffusing applications. Does writing about what I view an “old” story change what’s happening with potent systems and methods? Will government officials join in a kumbaya moment and force the systems and methods to fall into disuse? Endless recycling of an instrumental action by this country or that agency gets us where?

In my opinion, the sensationalizing of behavior does not correlate with responsible use of technologies. I think the Pegasus story is a search for headlines or recognition for saying, “Look what we found. Country X is a problem!” Spare me. Change must occur within institutions. Those engaged in the use of intelware and related technologies are aware of issues. These are, in my experience, not ignored. Improper behavior is rampant in today’s datasphere.

Standing on the sidelines and yelling at a player who let the team down does what exactly? Perhaps a more constructive approach can be identified and offered as a solution beyond Pegasus again? Broken record. I know you are “just doing your job.” Fine but is there a new tune to play?

Stephen E Arnold, April l29, 2024

Telegram Barks, Whines, and Wants a Treat

April 25, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Tucker Carlson, an American TV star journalist lawyer person, had an opportunity to find his future elsewhere after changes at Rupert Murdoch’s talking heads channel. The future, it seems, is for Mr. Carlson to  present news via Telegram, which is an end-to-end-encrypted messaging platform. It features selectable levels of encryption. Click enough and the content of the data passed via the platform is an expensive and time consuming decryption job. Mr. Carlson wanted to know more about his new broadcast home. It appears that as part of the tie up between Mr. Carlson and Mr. Durov, the latter would agree to a one-hour interview with the usually low profile, free speech flag waver Pavel Durov. You can watch the video on YouTube and be monitored by those soon-to-be-gone cookies or on Telegram and be subject to its interesting free speech activities.

image

A person dressed in the uniform of an unfriendly enters the mess hall of a fighting force engaged in truth, justice, and the American way. The bold lad in red forgets he is dressed as an enemy combatant and does not understand why everyone is watching him with suspicion or laughter because he looks like a fool or a clueless dolt. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough. Any meetings in DC today about security?

Pavel Durov insists that he not as smart as his brother. He tells Mr. Carlson [bold added for emphasis. Editor]:

So Telegram has been a tool for those to a large extent. But it doesn’t really matter whether it’s opposition or the ruling party that is using Telegram for us. We apply the rules equally to all sides. We don’t become prejudiced in this way. It’s not that we are rooting for the opposition or we are rooting for the ruling party. It’s not that we don’t care. But we think it’s important to have this platform that is neutral to all voices because we believe that the competition of different ideas can result in progress and a better world for everyone. That’s  in stark contrast to say Facebook which has said in public. You know we tip the scale in favor of this or that movement and this or that country all far from the west and far from Western media attention. But they’ve said that what do you think of that tech companies choosing governments? I think that’s one of the reasons why we ended up here in the UAE out of all places right? You don’t want to be geopolitically aligned. You don’t want to select the winners in any of these political fights and that’s why you have to be in a neutral place.  … We believe that Humanity does need a neutral platform like Telegram that would be respectful to people’s privacy and freedoms.

Wow, the royal “we.” The word salad. Then the Apple editorial control.

Okay, the flag bearer for secure communications yada yada. Do I believe this not-as-smart-as-my-brother guy?

No.

Mr. Pavlov says one thing and then does another, endangering lives and creating turmoil among those who do require secure communications. Whom you may ask? How about intelligence operatives, certain war fighters in Ukraine and other countries in conflict, and experts working on sensitive commercial projects. Sure, bad actors use Telegram, but that’s what happens when one embraces free speech.

Now it seems that Mr. Durov has modified his position to sort-of free speech.

I learned this from articles like “Telegram to Block Certain Content for Ukrainian Users” and “Durov: Apple Demands to Ban Some Telegram Channels for Users with Ukrainian SIM Cards.”

In the interview between two estimable individuals, Mr. Durov made the point that he was approached by individuals working in US law enforcement. In very nice language, Mr. Durov explained they were inept, clumsy, and focused on getting access to the data in his platform. He pointed out that he headed off to Dubai, where he could operate without having to bow down, lick boots, sell out, or cooperate with some oafs in law enforcement.

But then, I read about Apple demanding that Telegram curtail free speech for “some” individuals. Well, isn’t that special? Say one thing, criticize law enforcement, and then roll over for Apple. That is a company, as I recall, which is super friendly with another nation state somewhat orthogonal to the US. Furthermore, Apple is proud of its efforts to protect privacy. Rumors suggest Apple is not too eager to help out some individuals investigating crimes because the sacred iPhone is above the requirements of a mere country… with exceptions, of course. Of course.

The article “Durov: Apple Demands to Ban Some Telegram Channels for Users with Ukrainian SIM Cards” reports:

Telegram founder Pavel Durov said that Apple had sent a request to block some Telegram channels for Ukrainian users. Although the platform’s community usually opposes such blocking, the company has to listen to such requests in order to keep the app available in the App Store.

Why roll over? The write up quotes Mr. Durov as saying:

…, it doesn’t always depend on us.

Us. The royal we again. The company is owned by Mr. Durov. The smarter brother is a math genius like two PhDs and there are about 50 employees. “Us.” Who are the people in the collective consisting of one horn blower?

Several observations:

  1. Apple has more power or influence over Telegram than law enforcement from a government
  2. Mr. Durov appears to say one thing and then do the opposite, thinking no one will notice maybe?
  3. Relying on Telegram for secure communications may not be the best idea I have heard today.

Net net: Is this a “signal” that absolutely no service can be trusted? I don’t have a scorecard for trust bandits, but I will start one I think. In the meantime, face-to-face in selected locations without mobile devices may be one option to explore, but it sure is easy to use Telegram to transmit useful information to a drone operator in order to obtain a desire outcome. Like Mr. Snowden, Mr. Durov has made a decision. Actions have consequences; word sewage may not.

Stephen E Arnold, April 25, 2024

Kicking Cans Down the Street Is Not Violence. Is It a Type of Fraud Perhaps?

April 25, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Ah, spring, when young men’s fancies turn to thoughts of violence. Forget the Iran Israel dust up. Forget the Russia special operation. Think about this Bloomberg headline:

Tech’s Cash Crunch Sees Creditors Turn ‘Violent’ With One Another

image

Thanks, ChatGPT. Good enough.

Will this be drones? Perhaps a missile or two? No. I think it will be marketing hoo hah. Even though news releases may not inflict mortal injury, although someone probably has died from bad publicity, the rhetorical tone seems — how should we phrase it — over the top maybe?

The write up says:

Software and services companies are in the spotlight after issuing almost $30 billion of debt that’s classed as distressed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the most in any industry apart from real estate.

How do wizards of finance react to this “risk”? Answer:

“These two phenomena, coupled with the covenant-lite nature of leveraged loans today, have been the primary drivers of the creditor-on-creditor violence we’re seeing,” he [Jason Mudrick, founder of distressed credit investor Mudrick Capital] said.

Shades of the Sydney slashings or vehicle fires in Paris.

Here’s an example:

One increasingly popular maneuver these days, known as non-pro rata uptiering, sees companies cut a deal with a small group of creditors who provide new money to the borrower, pushing others further back in the line to be repaid. In return, they often partake in a bond exchange in which they receive a better swap price than other creditors.

Does this sound like “Let’s kick the can down the road.” Not articulated is the idea, “Let’s see what happens. If we fail, our management team is free to bail out.”

Nifty, right?

Financial engineering is a no harm, no foul game for some. Those who lose money? Yeah, too bad.

Stephen E Arnold, April 25, 2024

AI Transforms Memories Into Real Images

April 25, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Human memory is unreliable. It’s unreliable because we forget details, remember things incorrectly, believe things happened when they didn’t, and have different perspectives. We rely on human memory for everything, especially when it comes to recreating the past. The past can be recorded and recreated but one company is transforming photos into real images. The Technology Review explains how in, “Generative AI Can Turn Your Most Precious Memories Into Photos That Never Existed.”

Synthetic Memories is a studio that takes memories and uses AI to make them real. Pau Garcia founded the studio and got the idea to start Synthetic Memories after speaking with Syrian refugees. An elderly Syrian wanted to capture her memories for her descendants and Garcia graffitied a building to record them. His idea has taken off:

"Dozens of people have now had their memories turned into images in this way via Synthetic Memories, a project run by Domestic Data Streamers. The studio uses generative image models, such as OpenAI’s DALL-E, to bring people’s memories to life. Since 2022, the studio, which has received funding from the UN and Google, has been working with immigrant and refugee communities around the world to create images of scenes that have never been photographed, or to re-create photos that were lost when families left their previous homes.”

Domestic Data Streamers are working in a building next to the Barcelona Design Museum to record and recreate people’s memories of the city. Anyone is allowed to add a memory to the archive.

In order to recreate a memory, Garcia and his team developed a simple process. An interviewer sits with a subject, who then asks them to recount a memory. A prompt engineer writes a prompt for a model on a laptop to generate an image. Garcia’s team have written an entire glossary of prompting terms. The terms need to be edited to be accurate, so the engineers work with the subjects.

Garcia and his team learned that older subjects connect better with physical copies of their images. Images that are also blurry and warped resonate more with people too, because memories aren’t remembered in crisp detail. Garcia also stresses it is important to remember the difference between synthetic images and real photography. He says synthetic memories aren’t meant to be factual. He worries that if a larger company use better versions of DALL-E they’ll forgo older models for photorealism.

Whitey Grace, April 25, 2024

Is Grandma Google Making Erratic Decisions?

April 24, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Clowny Fish TV is unknown to me. The site published a write up which I found interesting and stuffed full of details I had not seen previously. The April 18, 2024,  essay is “YouTubers Claim YouTube is Very Broken Right Now.” Let’s look at a handful of examples and see if these spark any thoughts in my dinobaby mind. As Vladimir Shmondenko says, “Let’s go.”

image

Grandma Googzilla has her view of herself. Nosce teipsum, right? Thanks, MSFT Copilot. How’s your security today?

Here’s a statement to consider:

Over the past 72 hours, YouTubers have been complaining on X about everything from delayed comments to a noticeable decline in revenue and even videos being removed by Google for nebulous reasons after being online for years.

Okay, sluggish functions from the video ad machine. I have noticed either slow-loading or dead video ads; that is, the ads take a long time (maybe a second or two to 10 seconds to show up) or nothing happens and a “Skip” button just appears. No ad to skip. I wonder, “Do the advertisers pay for a non-displayed ad followed by a skip?” I assume there is some fresh Google word salad available in the content cafeteria, but I have not spotted it. Those arrests have, however, caught my attention.

Another item from the essay:

In fact, many longtime YouTube content creators have announced their retirements from the platform over the past year, and I have to wonder if these algorithm changes aren’t a driving force behind that. There’s no guarantee that there will be room for the “you” in YouTube six months from now, let alone six years from now.

I am not sure I know many of the big-time content creators. I do know that the famous Mr. Beast has formed a relationship with the Amazon Twitch outfit. Is that megastar hedging his bets? I think he is. Those videos cost big bucks and could be on broadcast TV if there were a functioning broadcast television service in the US.

How about this statement:

On top of the algorithm shift, and on top of the monetization hit, Google is now reportedly removing old videos that violate their current year Terms of Service.

Shades of the 23andMe approach to Terms of Service. What struck me is that one of my high school history teachers  — I think his name was Earl Skaggs — railed against Joseph Stalin’s changing Russian history and forcing textbooks to be revised to present Mr. Stalin’s interpretation of reality. Has Google management added changing history to their bag of tricks. I know that arresting employees is a useful management tool, but I have been relying on news reports. Maybe those arrests were “fake news.” Nothing surprises me where online information is in the mix.

I noted this remarkable statement in the Clown Fish TV essay:

Google was the glue that held all these websites together and let people get found. We’re seeing what a world looks like without Google. Because for many content creators and journalists, it’ll be practically worthless going forward.

I have selected a handful of items. The original article includes screenshots, quotes from people whom I assume are “experts” or whatever passes as an authority today, and a of Google algorithm questioning. But any of the Googlers with access to the algorithm can add a tweak or create a “wrapper” to perform a specific task. I am not sure too many Googlers know how to fiddle the plumbing anymore. Some of the “clever” code is now more than 25 years old. (People make fun of mainframes. Should more Kimmel humor be directed at 25 year old Google software?)

Observations are indeed warranted:

  1. I read Google criticism on podcasts; I read criticism of Google online. Some people are falling out of love with the Google.
  2. Google muffed the bunny with its transformer technology. By releasing software as open source, the outfit may have unwittingly demonstrated how out of touch its leadership team is and opened the door to some competitors able to move more quickly than Grandma Google. Microsoft. Davos. AI. Ah, yes.
  3. The Sundar & Prabhakar School of Strategic Thinking has allowed Google search to become an easy target. Metasearch outfits recycling poor old Bing results are praised for being better than Google. That’s quite an achievement and a verification that some high-school science club management methods don’t work as anticipated. I won’t mention arresting employees again. Oh, heck. I will. Google called the police on its own staff. Slick. Professional.

Net net: Clown Fish TV definitely has presented a useful image of Grandma Google and her video behaviors.

Stephen E Arnold, April 24, 2024

AI RIFing Financial Analysts (Juniors Only for Now). And Tomorrow?

April 19, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

I read “Bill Gates Worries AI Will Take His Job, Says, ‘Bill, Go Play Pickleball, I’ve Got Malaria Eradication’.” Mr. Gates is apparently about becoming farmer. He is busy buying land. He took time out from his billionaire work today to point out that AI will nuke lots of jobs. What type of jobs will be most at risk? Amazon seems to be focused on using robots and smart software to clear out expensive, unreliable humans.

But the interesting profession facing what might be called an interesting future are financial analysts. “AI Is Coming for Wall Street: Banks Are Reportedly Weighing Cutting Analyst Hiring by Two-Thirds” asserts:

Incoming classes of junior investment-banking analysts could up being cut as much as two-thirds, some of the people suggested, while those brought on board could fetch lower salaries, on account of their work being assisted by artificial intelligence.

Okay, it is other people’s money, so no big deal if the smart software hallucinates as long as there is churn and percentage scrapes. But what happens when the “senior” analysts leave or get fired? Will smart software replace them, or it the idea that junior analyst who are “smart” will move up and add value “smart” software cannot?

image

Thanks, OpenAI. This is a good depiction of the “best of the best” at a major Wall Street financial institution after learning their future was elsewhere.

The article points out:

The consulting firm Accenture has an even more extreme outlook for industry disruption, forecasting that AI could end up replacing or supplementing nearly 75% of all working hours in the banking sector.

Let’s look at the financial sector’s focus on analysts. What other industrial sectors use analysts? Here are several my team and I track:

  1. Intelligence (business and military)
  2. Law enforcement
  3. Law
  4. Medical subrogation
  5. Consulting firms (niche, general, and technical)
  6. Publishing.

If the great trimming at McKinsey and the big New York banks deliver profits, how quickly will AI-anchored software and systems diffuse across organizations?

The answer to the question is, “Fast.”

Stephen E Arnold, April 19, 2024

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