Oracle and Java: An Potential Hitch in the Google Get Along
April 22, 2009
Let me acknowledge that the love and kisses outlook for Oracle and its newest acquisition, Sun Microsystems is wonderful. The sun is bright. The weather is perfect. Life is good. Okay, now you have the optimist’s view of how Oracle’s owning Java, MySQL, and other assorted useful bits and pieces of technology will work out. There are some cheerful analyses such as PCWorld’s “Microsoft Could Be a Winner in Sun Oracle Deal” here and more pragmatic analyses such as “Winners and Losers from Oracle Sun” in Seeking Alpha here.
Now, let me outline several issues that have been the subject of much discussion among my colleagues and advisors. The focal point of our discussions is Google. Oracle and Google are pals. Here are the items that may conflate to become a hitch in the get along:
First, control. Google supports Java up to a point in its very important Google Apps service. Google Apps supports Python, but in Googley fashion, support is not how Google approaches its mission critical enterprise initiatives. To make sure that Python is truly Googley, Google hired the person who is the “owner” of Python, Guido Van Rossum. Not surprisingly Google’s support for Python is more than good; it is outstanding. Google’s support of Java is what in my opinion warrants the phrase “sort of”. The idea behind Java, which is not perfect by any means, is that those who embrace Java love it all. Google likes some of Java, preferring to rely on its own systems and methods for the odd bits that Google engineers don’t support. Why is Google going whole hog with Python but only part of the hog with Java? In my research, this approach accomplishes two things. First, Google makes the App Engine service more approachable by Java developers. More developers means more pressure on Microsoft, faster uptake for the App Engine, and more “hooks” into the enterprise whales. Second, Google Apps is a one way street. Google wants those applications running in the GOOG’s belly. Migrating from Google is not part of the present game plan. Oracle will have to confront this “sort of Java” support sooner or later. Either way, there could be significant consequences for Oracle and Google. What if IBM goes off the Java reservation? What if Google gets significant traction in the enterprise and Java becomes one of the nails in Oracle’s database highway? What if the open source community goes crazy with the “sort of Java” approach by the GOOG?
Second, newer technology. in 2007 and early 2008 I talked with various database gurus. Some of these folks were suits from the giants of the database world. Others were entrepreneurs who were rushing to commercialize database and data management systems that could address some of the Oracle challenges licensees of that RDBMS face. Some of those with whom I spoke were familiar with the data management systems at Googzilla offered other information. The result of this primary data collection was to make my analysis of Google’s open source technical papers and public documents more nuanced. I formulated this hypothesis: The Google wants a piece of the revenue from the enterprise data management cash flow. The money in the database world pools around the ankles of IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle. Sure, there are other players such as Information Builders and Sybase among others, but in the Fortune 500 database evokes images of IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle logos. If correct, Google will push into data management and almost certainly cause a reaction from IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle. Microsoft will just fight back. IBM and Oracle will have to have a meeting to figure out what the cost of splitting from the GOOG will be. I don’t think that the GOOG will lose much sleep over annoying the Big Three. The Big Three will be more concerned about Google. The concern right now does not exist. My research revealed that none of these three big database players see Google as “industrial strength”. That brings us back to the App Engine and Java.
Finally, operating costs. The financial climate is not brightening based on the information flowing to me and my goslings. As financial pressure mounts, enterprise licensees will be looking for a way to get out from under: [a] increasing maintenance fees for databases, [b] the headcounts required to manage the enterprise database systems, [c] slash lease or capital expenses for the storage and other gizmos these systems demand. The appetite for more hardware is not easily slaked. Oracle won’t be in a hurry to provide solutions that do not require Sun hardware in my opinion. IBM and Microsoft will have to get in gear to make their cloud computing solutions more than marketing collateral. That leaves Oracle exposed and Oracle’s best friend ideally positioned to use its Googley technology to make the pain somewhat less troublesome. That “sort of Java” support may make the Google option more attractive in my opinion.
To sum up, I see stress and potential fractures in the future. I hope the sunny day and warm weather persists. I think a storm front may be building. I think I need a decaf Java to sip as I watch the weather change.
Stephen Arnold, April 22, 2009
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