The London Times Blocks Newsnow.co.uk
January 10, 2010
The big experiment is underway. News Corp believes that its content is worth money. Outfits indexing public Web sites find that certain content is no longer available for spidering and indexing. Newsnow.co.uk—a UK based news headline service—posted a message I saw earlier today (January 8, 2010).
In my experience, a shift from one medium to another does not automatically bring the former customers along. In fact, there is attrition. The question is, “How many users of aggregation sites or Web indexing services like Google will change their information grazing habits and pay for the content?” In my experience, each medium attracts a user base with a distinct fingerprint.
Online services are tricky beasts. A spreadsheet jockey can plug in assumptions to make a move like the pay wall around certain content work on paper. Getting those assumptions right is a much more difficult task. It is sufficiently difficult that there are more failures than successes.
Can Rupert Murdoch make his online strategy generate enough money to make up for rising costs and declining print advertisements? The name of the game in online is getting lots of information. The content then works like a magnet, pulling users to the information. Mr. Murdoch is betting that his online strategy which other content producers seem to be emulating will work.
My experience suggests that the cost may be very high and lead to severe cost reduction actions. I don’t think he will fire himself. Others may not be so lucky.
Stephen E Arnold, January 10, 2010
This is a freebie. No one paid me to point out the long odds that News Corp faces. I suppose I must report this to the Jockeys Club. Quite a risky wager in my opinion.
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