Yes or No: Unicorns in the Time of Pandemic
May 24, 2020
Each tech startup has little more chance of becoming a unicorn than you have of stumbling upon the animal version on your next nature walk. In venture capital speak, a unicorn is a privately held startup that has undergone hyper-growth in a new or changing market and is valued at over $1 billion. Such companies, when they do occur, often redefine (or “disrupt”) a market through their innovations. Journalist John Gallagher reminds us that fewer than 1% of companies reach this position in, “It’s Time We Outgrew our Fairytale Fascination with Tech Unicorns” at TNW.
“Unicorns are very eye-catching and we all love to read about them. I followed the drama surrounding WeWork with fascination, with the founder walking off with several hundred million dollars, an extremely rare outcome for a founder whose investors are in the red. Was there a different way to build the company which would have seen real value built for all involved? I certainly think so. Sustainable growth and keeping control of your company has a much higher likelihood of success for founders. Dreaming big is certainly a powerful mindset for entrepreneurs, but keeping your feet on the ground is also important for those who want to build businesses that will have a high chance of lasting more than a few funding rounds.”
Sure, it would be great to be (or invest in) a unicorn, but as we know the chances of success are slim. The more likely outcome, writes Gallagher, is that founders will burn through tens of millions of dollars in a few years only to have investors demand they sell the company with nothing to show for it but failure. The sustainable-growth journey may be boring compared to chasing unicorns, but it is much more likely to lead to a happy ending.
Cynthia Murrell, May 24, 2020
DarkCyber Exclusive: Steele Aims for the Hearts of Wall Street Short Sellers
May 23, 2020
We posted a follow up interview with Robert David Steele, a former CIA professional. This video expands on the allegations of wide spread, systemic fraud. Steele explains why a government task force is needed. He describes the scope of the audit, involving six financial giants and a back office operation. If you are interested in learning about alleged skyscraper-sized financial misbehavior, you can view the video on Vimeo at this link.
Stephen E Arnold, May 23, 2020
Microsoft: What Is the Inspiration for Google Action Blocks?
May 22, 2020
Years ago, an outfit connected to the Microsofties invited me to a meeting. The meeting took place before the zippy Windows phone tile interface took the world like a mild mist on a spring morning. The big colorful tiles appeared in the Windows desktop interface. One thing for sure: Flashing tiles catch the eye and suck up bandwidth and CPU cycles like a fast growing dandelion.
I thought of this Windows tile thing when I read “Google Action Blocks Would Make iPhone Simple Again.” The title makes it clear that hurling digital tiles in an action filled way will klonk the iPhone and nick the Redmond empire.
The article reported:
Google Action Blocks can turn several steps into a single step – one button tap.
Tap on what?
Good question. The action block thing converts an iPhone into a semi Windows phone. Android phones are just so easy to use the way the Google intended.
The article is definitely excited about this latest me too from the Googlers:
But why, you might ask, would I need a button to open an app? Can’t I just tap the app icon? Yes, you can, but Action Block buttons can be made large. Action Blocks creates Widgets, Widgets that are resizable – as resizable as you desire. You could open a specific app with a button that’s as large as your display – it could be massive!
Innovation is alive and well at Alphabet. Users of the iPhone who work at Microsoft will experience a moment of nostalgia when Action Blocks are tackled.
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
IBM: Watson, What Is Happening?
May 22, 2020
I like to think about the wisdom of IBM Watson. A large company developed smart software able to beat mere humans in a TV game show. Amazing, but I asked myself after Watson “won” jeopardy, “What about that post production process?”
Now IBM’s actual production process is visible. A new Big Blue dog Arvind Krishna is controlling the pack of huskies. Such is the success of the racing sled in a time of Covid that IBM will not cut its five percent dividend, according to the “real news” service Fox Business.
IBM hedged by declining to make a forecast for 2020. IBM’s future is bright, but apparently it is not that bright.
“IBM to Cut Thousands of Jobs As Coronavirus Plays Out” reveals that some surplus employees will be reduced in force. Fox reported:
“IBM’s work in a highly competitive marketplace requires flexibility to constantly remix to high-value skills, and our workforce decisions are made in the long-term interests of our business. Recognizing the unique current conditions, IBM is offering subsidized medical coverage to all affected U.S. employees through June 2021” a company spokesman said in a statement.
If one is not terminated, what’s the people process at IBM look like? Think bare knuckles boxing maybe? “IBM Says It’s Giving Employees the Opportunity to Compete for Positions” explains:
“As part of IBM’s regular assessment of how we work, we are simplifying how we operate to position our business for high value growth opportunities and better meet client demand,” a spokesperson said. “Employees will have the opportunity to re-skill and compete for positions where roles are available.”
Unlike some Silicon Valley outfits, having employees work from home is the first step (a generally gentle one) in eliminating surplus. The office space will go and then the less productive work from homers will be invited to a Zoom meeting for a “Find Your Future” elsewhere session.
Big Blue is more direct, more gladiatorial: Get terminated or get into the octagon. Fight Ralph, the slightly overweight and near sighted OmniFind expert for a paycheck.
Wouldn’t it be more interesting to have Watson battle Facebook, Google, and Microsoft in a smart software battle to prove which company is Number One?
Watson, what do you think of my suggestion? IBM’s approach to returning to glory is interesting, but it seems old fashioned: Layoffs and internal competition. Very Darwin.
Watson, you know about Darwin, right?
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
Microsoft and Its Latest Search Innovation: Moving Past Fast? Nope
May 22, 2020
I read “Microsoft Search: Search Your Document Like You Search the Web.” Perhaps Microsoft did not get the reports about the demise of the Google Search Appliance. That “invention” made clear that searching a corporate content collection like you search the Web was not exactly the greatest thing since sliced bread. There were a number of reasons for the failure of the GSA. It was a black box. You know that mere mortals could not tune the relevance component. You know that it produced results that left employees wondering, “Where is the document I wrote yesterday?” You know that the corpus of Web content is different from the fruit cake of corporate content. Web search returns something because the system is rigged to find a way to display ads to the hapless searcher.
Contrast this with documents in the cloud, in different systems like that old AS/400 Ironsides application used by the warehouse supervisors, and content tucked away on employees’ USB drives, mobile phones, the oldest kid’s iPad, and on services a go to sales professional uses to store PowerPoints for “special” customers. Then there are the documents in the corporate legal office. The consultants’ reports scanned and stored on the Market Department’s computer kept for interns.
Nevertheless, the article explains:
We’re utilizing well-established web search technologies, such as query and document understanding, and adding deep learning based natural language models. This allows us to handle a much broader set of search queries beyond “exact match.”
Okay, query expansion, synonym look up, and Fast Search’s concept feature. But there’s more:
With the recent breakthroughs in deep learning techniques, you can now go beyond the common search term-based queries. The result is answers to your questions based on the document content. This opens a whole new way of finding knowledge. When you’re looking at a water quality report, you can answer questions like “where does the city water originate from? How to reduce the amount of lead in water?”
May I suggest that Microsoft and dozens of other enterprise search vendors have promised magical retrieval?
May I point out that the following content types are usually outside the ken of the latest and great enterprise search confection; for example:
- Quality control data on parts stored in an Autodesk engineering document
- Real time data flowing into an organization from sensors
- Video content, audio content, and rich media like photographs
- Classified or content restricted by certain constraints. (Access controls are often best implemented by specialized systems unknown to the greedy enterprise search indexing system.)
- Documents obtained through an eDiscovery process for legal matters.
Has Microsoft solved these problems? Sure, if everything (note the logically impossible categorical affirmative) is in an Azure repository, it is conceivable that a user query could return a particular content object.
But that’s Microsoft fantasy land, and it is about as likely as Mr. Nadella arriving at work on the back of a unicorn.
Microsoft feels compelled to reinvent search every year or two. The longest journey begins with a single step. It is just that Microsoft took those steps decades ago and still has not reached the now rubbelized Fred Harvey’s.
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
Facebook: Reducing Overhead and Maybe Management Oversight
May 22, 2020
NBC News (I know “real news” is thriving) published “Mark Zuckerberg: Half of Facebook May Work Remotely by 2030.” The article quotes the fellow who was not really in touch with Cambridge Analytica’s activities as saying:
“We are going to be the most forward-leaning company on remote work at our scale,” the Facebook CEO said in an interview.
The article points out:
Still, Facebook’s move — and Zuckerberg’s expectation of a 50-50 split between in-office and at-home workers by 2030 — marks a seismic shift for Silicon Valley and American business generally, especially if other companies are inspired to follow suit.
One obvious point is that Facebook is aiming to reduce the costs for office space, heat, electricity, and related facility services.
The motivation may be simpler than the complex verbal gymnastics reveal: Facebook can be more profitable, distance itself from certain office behaviors, and use monitoring technology to keep the gerbils running.
How many commercial real estate professionals agree with me? Yep, that’s what I thought.
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
European Union: Feeling Macho?
May 22, 2020
Big technology carries a lot of political clout in the United States, but not as much in the European Union. The TRT World explains that, “EU Looks For Evidence To Rein In US Tech Giants” and force them end rivalries and their share data and standards among each other. The EU apparently does not joke around when it comes to Internet gatekeepers, because they do not like them.
The EU does not want Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook controlling information and services, rather new legislation could close their gate keeping practices. Before the legislation is considered, the EU launched a $649,800 study to collect evidence about the gate keeping. The study will search for self-referencing practices and:
“The study should also focus on tech companies’ use of data from one market to expand into other markets, making it difficult for current or new rivals to compete, the paper said, citing the example of Facebook and its WhatsApp unit.
Another area of interest is information asymmetries characterized by social media platforms and search engines amassing vast amounts of data via free services, resulting in users reluctant to switch to a competing company.”
Arguments against the proposed legislation are that the EU would be limited in Internet related services and benefits, plus it would make the economy an uneven playing field.
The report is currently progressing with a three month interim report and the final report due in five months.
When big companies are broken up that usually means there is more business and less monopolies. In most mixed economies, monopolies are illegal.
Whitney Grace, May 22, 2020
Smartphones: Surveillance Facilitated?
May 22, 2020
A recent study published in the Journal of Marketing suggests we tend to reveal more about ourselves when we communicate through our smartphones than when we are on our desktops. The research was performed at the University of Pennsylvania by Shiri Melumad and Robert Meyer. Scienmag explores the tendency in, “Why Smartphones Are Digital Truth Serum.” We learn:
“For example, Tweets and reviews composed on smartphones are more likely to be written from the perspective of the first person, to disclose negative emotions, and to discuss the writer’s private family and personal friends. Likewise, when consumers receive an online ad that requests personal information (such as phone number and income), they are more likely to provide it when the request is received on their smartphone compared to their desktop or laptop computer.”
But why would we do this? For one thing, users seem to be subconsciously affected by the challenges inherent in using a smaller device:
“[The smaller size] makes viewing and creating content generally more difficult compared with desktop computers. Because of this difficulty, when writing or responding on a smartphone, a person tends to narrowly focus on completing the task and become less cognizant of external factors that would normally inhibit self-disclosure, such as concerns about what others would do with the information.”
Then there is the fact that most of us keep our phones on our person or near us constantly—they have become a modern comfort item (or “adult pacifiers,” as Melumad puts it). The article explains:
“The downstream effect of those feelings shows itself when people are more willing to disclose feelings to a close friend compared to a stranger or open up to a therapist in a comfortable rather than uncomfortable setting. As Meyer says, ‘Similarly, when writing on our phones, we tend to feel that we are in a comfortable “safe zone.” As a consequence, we are more willing to open up about ourselves.’”
The researchers analyzed thousands of social media posts and online reviews, responses to web ads, and controlled laboratory studies using both natural-language processing and human analysts. They also examined responses to nearly 20,000 “call to action” web ads that asked users for private info—such ads deployed on smartphones were consistently more successful at raking in personal data than those aimed at PCs. So consumers beware—do not give in to the tendency get too chummy with those on the other end of your phone just because you are comfortable with the phone itself.
Cynthia Murrell, May 22, 2020
Dark Patterns: A Partial Explanation
May 21, 2020
Manipulation is a rich, multi-layered concept. DarkCyber noted “Dark Patterns: Past, Present, and Future: The Evolution of Tricky User Interfaces” is a slice of a manipulative pie, but the bakery has not been fully sampled. (Note: You may have to pay to read the article.) That poorly lit patisserie can be explored by future computer, scholar, analyst philosophers.
The pie slice at hand look good and seems tasty.
The article is the work of a number of computer, scholar, analyst philosophers. The main point is:
Dark patterns are user interfaces that benefit an online service by coercing users into making decisions they might not otherwise make.
The authors have ingested the thinking of the economist, scholar, and analysts Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein. The idea is that “helpful” suggestions, facts, comments, opinions, or other message payloads can cause a person to react. This is the Newtonian approach to manipulation. Like the pie, there is a quantum world of manipulation waiting to be documented; for example, a shaped experience slightly more subtle that a nun’s whacking an inattentive choir boy on the head with a hymnal.
The write up includes diagrams, an origin story, and a nod to the Google. Like many aspiring experts, the authors offer suggestions or recommendations presented in adulting language; for instance:
Let’s urge the design community to set standards for itself, both to avoid onerous regulation and because it’s the right thing to do.
Yep, that will work. The datasphere may be slightly more intractable for users unable to figure out a log scale.
Stephen E Arnold, May 21, 2020
Google: App Quality Control?
May 21, 2020
It appears APT group OceanLotus, believed to originate in Vietnam, managed to play Google Play and other app marketplaces for half a decade. DarkReading reports, “5-Year-Long Cyber Espionage Campaign Hid in Google Play.” The attack campaign, dubbed “PhantomLance” by Kaspersky and called “Operation Oceanmobile” by BlackBerry researchers, mainly targeted Android users in Southeast Asia. The malware managed to evade detection in part by changing up its code over time. BlackBerry published their investigation last October, while Kaspersky recently revealed new details. The malicious code was hidden in utility apps like ad blockers, Flash plug-ins, and cache cleaners as well as (interestingly) Vietnamese apps for finding local churches and bars. Writer Kelly Jackson Higgins cites Kaspersky researcher Alexey Firsh:
“Firsh says he and his team decided to dig deeper into a Trojan backdoor that was first revealed in a July 2019 report by researchers at Dr. Web. The relatively unusual backdoor, they found, dated back to at least December 2015, the registration date of one of the domains used in the campaign, according to Firsh. The latest sample of the spying malware was present in apps on Google Play in November 2019, he says, when Kaspersky notified Google. … The attackers created several versions of the backdoor, with dozens of samples, and when an app first went up in Google Play or other app stores, it didn’t contain malware: That was added later in the form of an update, after the user had installed it.”
Sneaky. The attackers also used different encryption keys and separate infrastructures. They even went to the trouble of writing realistic privacy policies for each app, maintaining customer service emails addresses where they actually answered questions, and creating a fake developer profile on GitHub to look legit. Higgins explains what the software was up to:
“The malware performs the usual spy stuff, gathering geolocation information, call logs, contact lists, and SMS messages, as well as information on the victim’s device, such as model, operating system, and installed apps. ‘But we see that it also has the ability to execute special shell commands from the [C2] server and download additional payloads on the victim’s device,’ Firsh explains.”
Also known as APT32, OceanLotus has targeted Vietnamese dissidents, journalists, and other citizens as well as industries in China, the Philippines, Germany, the UK, and the US.
Cynthia Murrell, May 21, 2020
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
