Count Bayesie Speaks Truth
September 10, 2020
Navigate to “Why Bayesian Stats Needs More Monte Carlo Methods.” Each time I read an informed write up about the 18th century Presbyterian minister who could do some math, I think about a fellow who once aspired to be the Robert Maxwell of content management. Noble objective is it not?
That person grew apoplectic when I explained how Autonomy in the early 1990s was making use of mathematical procedures crafted in the 18th century. I wish I have made a TikTok video of his comical attempt to explain that a human or software system should not under any circumstances inject a data point that was speculative.
Well, my little innumeric content management person, get used to Bayes. Plus there’s another method at which you can rage and bay. Yep, Monte Carlo. If you were horrified by the good Reverend’s idea, wait until you did into Monte Carlo. Strapping these two stastical stallions to the buggy called predictive analytics is commonplace.
The write up closes poetically, which may be more in line with the fuzzy wuzzy discipline of content management:
It may be tempting to blame the complexity of the details of Bayesian methods, but it’s important to realize that when we are taught the beauty of calculus and analytical methods we are often limited to a relatively small set of problems that map well to the solutions of calc 101. When trying to solve real world problems mathematically complex problems pop up everywhere and analytical solutions either escape or fail us.
Net net: Use what matches the problem. Also, understand the methods. Key word: Understand.
Stephen E Arnold, September 10, 2020
Oh, Oh, Millennials Want Their Words and Services Enhanced. Okay, Done!
September 9, 2020
A couple of amusing items caught my attention this morning. The first is Amazon’s alleged demand that a Silicon Valley real news outlet modify its word choice.
The Bezos bulldozer affects the social environment. The trillion horsepower Prime machine wants to make sure that its low cost gizmos are not identified with surveillance. Why is that? Perhaps because their inclusion of microphones, arrays, and assorted software designed to deal with voices in far corners performs surveillance? DarkCyber does not know. The solution? Amazon = surveillance. Now any word will do, right?
The second item is mentioned in “Microsoft Confirms Why Windows Defender Can’t Be Disabled via Registry.” The idea is that Microsoft’s system is now becoming Bob’s mom. You remember Bob, don’t you. User controls? Ho ho ho.
The third item is a rib tickler. You worry about censorship for text and videos, don’t you. Now you can worry about Google’s new user centric ability to filter your phone calls. That’s a howler. What if the call is from a person taking Google to court? Filtered. This benefits everyone. You can get the allegedly full story in “Google New Verified Calls Feature Will Tell You Why a Business Is Calling You.” Helpful.
Each of these examples amuse me. Shall we complain about Chinese surveillance apps?
These outfits are extending their perimeters as far as possible before the ever vigilant, lobbyist influenced political animals begin the great monopoly game.
Stephen E Arnold, September 9, 2020
Microsoft Channels the Google: Users Moved to Second Class Status
September 9, 2020
Microsoft is notorious for angering its users, no matter how loyal they are to the brand. Microsoft developers must get perverse pleasure from annoying their clients, because Fossbytes details how “New Microsoft Edge Support Page May Have Pissed Users Even More.”
Another thing Microsoft is notorious for is its support and help pages not being helpful at all. Apparently they have upped the ante on useless support information, because users cannot uninstall Microsoft Edge.
Microsoft Edge is Microsoft’s built-in Web browser and users do not like it. They want to remove it. Windows will not allow users to install it. The only way to get rid of Edge is to switch to a Mac or join the Linux community. Most computers come with default browsers. Apple products have Safari and Chromebooks from Google use Chrome.
It is SOP for computers to come with a preinstalled Web browser and doing otherwise would not be good marketing, especially for a company as big as Microsoft. What rankles users more than anything is the aggravation and taunting behavior:
“But the way it’s promoting Edge may be easily called as too pushy. Probably, Microsoft shouldn’t have just created a page called “Can’t Uninstall Microsoft Edge” and blatantly tell users they can’t uninstall Microsoft Edge at all. Surely, a user browsing the web to find a solution wouldn’t dance in joy after reading it. If you think your product is good, then you have to release it properly and then at least trust your users that they’ll eventually start using it.”
There is a way around using Microsoft Edge. Download another browser like Chrome or Firefox, then make it the default browser. You might not be able to delete Edge, but you can delete the icon from the desktop and not browse the Web with it.
Whitney Grace, September 9, 2020
Google: Putting Ads First. Users, Please, Step to the Rear of the Bus
September 9, 2020
DarkCyber spotted this item on the Google Chrome support page: “Can’t disable Chrome Mobile video autoplay. Have set to Blocked in Site Settings; still autoplaying.” The idea is that a person checking out a video on YouTube, for example, will be subjected to a stream of videos that just play. This is a variant of the Energizer Bunny, except that those batteries don’t die. The autoplay bunny is an almost forever thing. There are some amusing and interesting comments from users at the back of the digital bus; for instance:
You need to disable java feature in settings. Chrome forcing user playing videos in background for monetary reasons.
Imagine! Monetary reasons. Is the Google taking steps to get in front of the impending legal tussles looming from states, national governments, and now, maybe, users?
Oh, one more comment from a user who does not matter in the here and now Google context:
I hate that I have also had to leave Chrome but I can’t stand the autoplay videos. I want to be able to choose what I want to read and what I want to listen/watch. Will retire Chrome until it is fixed.
The driver of the chrome Google bus may say, “Pipe down or you will be banned.”
Would Google say that to a user?
Stephen E Arnold, September 9, 2020
A Push for ISYS Search. Sorry, Lexmark. Oh, Right, Hyland
September 9, 2020
Those 1980s and enterprise search were a combo. Ian Davies’ search and retrieval system was very good. In fact, a long time ago I visited the old Crow’s Nest offices and sold a small job. After all, how many people from rural Kentucky end up in Sydney wanting to talk about search? Answer: Not too many. I wrangled an invitation because I complained about how the system displayed PDF files in a results list.
Flash forward and ISYS Search moved some operations to the US. Eventually the excitement waned and ISYS Search became a property of Lexmark. Lexington, Kentucky, had spawned a weird enterprise wide content management system which fetched a pretty price, and I assumed that Lexmark wanted its own content-centric technology. The wheels of time turned like a grindstone and Lexmark was caught between the business ends of the grist wheel. ISYS Search was now getting long in the tooth, and the company was sold to Hyland, also in the content management business. At this time, Lexmark had looped the loop from IBM to Chinese ownership.
Hence I was surprised to read “Why a Government Agency Needs Enterprise Search in the Modern World.” This was a message ISYS in the late 1980s was emitting as it marketed its system to law enforcement agencies with reasonable success. The write up by the Hyland’s Australia manager states:
Enterprise Search is becoming an essential ‘uber tool’ for content organization and discovery. More than just adding yet another layer of applications to the department’s arsenal of tools, enterprise search allows for the organized creation, indexing and retrieval of data – both structured and unstructured – through one simple interface.
In an interview with me in 2008, Ian Davies said:
What defined search back then was the significance of the need — users were after information that truly was mission critical. Now , juxtapose that with today, where search has expanded to address usability and the need to leverage corporate knowledge. What we have is a keen demand for mission critical search and retrieval, content processing, and analysis. In addition, there are large numbers of organizations that are trying to make the best use of the information in digital form. Mission-critical search manipulates information to identify a criminal, which may be a matter of public safety, or extract the key fact from information related to a legal matter. Essential search helps employees find the answer or the information needed to do their work today. Both drive the growth of ISYS. I don’t see either need diminishing going forward.
Similar? Yep.
Observations:
- Enterprise search is a challenge and shall remain so
- The lingo used to explain enterprise search is almost timeless
- The technology and its “promises” have persisted at ISYS for more than two decades.
Why hasn’t ISYS generated greater traction? Why has the core plumbing remained the same for decades? Those are important questions because they reveal much about the enterprise search sector which seems like an easy way to generate oodles of cash.
One issue is that enterprise search, like most policeware and intelware systems as well, is that the market sector is a very difficult one. One of the most popular enterprise search systems is, for instance, open source and free of license fees. That’s new. The sales pitch and arguments for paying for search are not.
Stephen E Arnold, September 9, 2020
Yo, Kafka: Check Out This Bureaucratic Play
September 9, 2020
“Beijing Floats a Plan to Protect Chinese Companies from American Cyber Bullying” is an interesting news report. Let’s assume that it is accurate with nothing lost in translation. The write up states:
In a speech Tuesday, Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi proposed a set of international rules intended to increase trust and refute the Trump administration’s strategy to limit the reach of Chinese-made technologies. Wang said the “Global Initiative on Data Security” is a recognition that data protection techniques are increasingly politicized at a moment when “individual countries” are “bullying” others, sometimes “hunting” foreign-based companies.
The political questions are outside the scope of DarkCyber. The semantic issues are getting into the research team’s area of interest.
What’s important is that this is a content object which may be weaponized. Who is bullying whom? Has security become the equivalent of accosting a person of improper behavior? What’s hunting mean?
Worth noting.
Stephen E Arnold, September 9, 2020
Quick Bite: Apple Chomps into a Quibi Pro
September 8, 2020
DarkCyber spotted a news version of a quick bite. “Apple Hires Former Hulu/Quibi Hollywood Exec As It Explores Apple TV+ Bundle Deals.” The article highlights a business wizard named Tom Connolly and his Quibi experience. The article says:
… At Hulu, Connolly led negotiations with Spotify to bundle the music service with Hulu at no extra cost to the customer. He also worked on Hulu’s live TV deals and led advertising and partnerships at Quibi.
Quibi was available to DarkCyber because we have a T-Mobile account. No one ever accessed the service. But that’s just the quirky DarkCyber team. The real news outfit The Guardian did and published in the depth of Rona “The Fall of Quibi: How Did a Starry $1.75bn Netflix Rival Crash So Fast?”
The point is that Apple sees value in an executive with Quibi experience. DarkCyber wonders if other quick biters will covert their valuable experience with the quick biters into new opportunities.
Stephen E Arnold, September 8, 2020
Google Decides It Is Time To Play Cards
September 8, 2020
Innovation is part of Google’s mantra. Alphabet Inc. never stops developing ideas, especially when it comes to improving its trademark product: search. Mobile search and having seamless access between mobile and desktop devices is a key selling feature. Google decided to improve its activity cards feature says Engadget in the article, “Google Promises Better Search Results For Recipes, Jobs, And Shopping.”
The activity cards feature allows users to continue searches they started on mobile devices. The feature works like this:
“Let’s say you’re looking for iPad accessories. The shopping card will display products that you’ve been researching, and even some that you haven’t explicitly searched for. If they were featured in a review or a guide, Google might surface them in the card. That could help you to compare all of your options and reach a decision.
The jobs card could make it easier for you to keep on top of new openings in your field. It’ll display relevant job listings that have popped up since you last searched, so you don’t necessarily have to trawl through the same ones over and over.”
The recipe cards work similar by keeping content on searched for recipes updated. The activity cards act like personalized RSS feeds centered on specific topics: jobs, search, shopping, and recipes. They offer a unique and customizable browsing and search option.
However, their subject reach is limited. Dozens of other apps provide the same service, but they are not limited to four topics. The only special thing about Google’s activity cards is the Google name.
How about customizing activity cards so Google users can get the most out of this feature.
Whitney Grace, September 8, 2020
Machine Learning Like A Psychic: Sounds Scientific for 2020
September 8, 2020
DarkCyber thinks most psychics are frauds. They are observers and manipulators of human behavior. They take people’s weaknesses and turn it into profit for themselves. In other words, they do not know the winning lottery numbers, they cannot predict stock options, and they cannot find missing pets.
Machine learning algorithms built on artificial intelligence, however, might have the “powers” psychics claim to have. EurekaAlert! Has a brand new: “Study: Machine Learning Can Predict Market Behavior.” Machine learning algorithms are smart, because they were programmed to find and interpret patterns. They can also assess how effective mathematical tools are predicting financial markets.
Cornell University researchers used a large dataset to determine if a machine learning algorithm could predict future financial events. It is a large task to undertake, because financial markets have tons of information and high volatility. Maureen O’Hara, the Robert W. Purcell Professor of Management at the SC Johnson College of Business said:
“ ‘Trying to estimate these sorts of things using standard techniques gets very tricky, because the databases are so big. The beauty of machine learning is that it’s a different way to analyze the data,’ O’Hara said. ‘The key thing we show in this paper is that in some cases, these microstructure features that attach to one contract are so powerful, they can predict the movements of other contracts. So we can pick up the patterns of how markets affect other markets, which is very difficult to do using standard tools.’”
Companies exist solely on the basis of understanding how financial markets work and they have developed their own machine learning algorithms for that very purpose. Cornell’s study used a random forest machine learning algorithm to examine these models using a dataset with 87 future contracts. The study used every single trade, tens of millions, for their analysis. They discovered that some of the variables worked, while others did not.
There are millions of datasets available since every trade has been recorded since 1980. Machine learning interprets this data and makes predictions, but it acts more like a black box. In other words, the algorithms predict patterns but it does not reveal the determinations.
Psychics have tried to predict the future for centuries and have failed. Machine learning algorithms are better at it, but they still are not 100% accurate. Predicting the future still remains consigned to fantasy and science fiction.
Whitney Grace, September 8, 2020
Thought Leaders Thought Lead: Better Late Than Never
September 8, 2020
I read “Scale Digital Technologies to Thrive in New Reality: KPMG.” This document is what I would characterize as a “thought leader piece.” The idea is that consulting firms have to give the impression that their sales pitches are in step with most business thought just a tiny bit ahead. Then the thought leader becomes an expert on the subject and can use that perception to sell consulting work. The method has worked since the efficiency studies of Frederick Winslow Taylor and the Gnostic message of the buggy whip case study.
This particular blue chip consulting firm output tackles the importance of being digital by Oscar Obvious Wilde, who wears upscale casual clothing, has a family confident in its wealth and connections, and a day time TV star smile. What’s not to like?
The write up states:
Improved decision-making is the top criteria for investments in emerging technologies…More than 90 per cent of companies are investing across emerging technologies as enterprises believe more in combined use of emerging technologies.
I think this means invest to make better decisions. Don’t worry about silver bullet technologies. Combine technologies.
Let’s go back to “what’s not to like”.
Sticking or combining technologies together is not magnetic. Two magnets will either snap together or push one another away. Now dump 12 magnets on the table and push them together. What happens? That’s tough to predict, so one has to be prepared to run tests, then fit the data to a pattern.
Does that sound like a sure fire way to spend a lot of time without having a result on which one can depend?
Yep, that’s the purpose of being a thought leader. Sell time and services. Does the approach create improved decision making. Sometimes. The client learns to be less accepting of some experts’ pronouncements.
Transformation can be hard and digital ones can be harder if we are not bold to question the status quo. It is a reboot/reset moment for all of us. We either ride the wave or get drowned.
There is an alternative, particularly for firms which embraced digital solutions years ago. Another option is to stay out of the water. Not everyone wants to be a surfer writing big checks.
Stephen E Arnold, September 8, 2020
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