Israel Military: An Alleged Lapse via the Cloud
April 23, 2025
No AI, just a dinobaby watching the world respond to the tech bros.
Israel is one of the countries producing a range of intelware and policeware products. These have been adopted in a number of countries. Security-related issues involving software and systems in the country are on my radar. I noted the write up “Israeli Air Force Pilots Exposed Classified Information, Including Preparations for Striking Iran.” I do not know if the write up is accurate. My attempts to verify did not produce results which made me confident about the accuracy of the Haaretz article. Based on the write up, the key points seem to be:
- Another security lapse, possibly more severe than that which contributed to the October 2023 matter
- Classified information was uploaded to a cloud service, possibly Click Portal, associated with Microsoft’s Azure and the SharePoint content management system. Haaretz asserts: “… it [MSFT Azure SharePoint Click Portal] enables users to hold video calls and chats, create documents using Office applications, and share files.”
- Documents were possibly scanned using CamScanner, A Chinese mobile app rolled out in 2010. The app is available from the Russian version of the Apple App Store. A CamScanner app is available from the Google Play Store; however, I elected to not download the app.
Modern interfaces can confuse users. Lack of training rigor and dashboards can create a security problem for many users. Thanks, Open AI, good enough.
Haaretz’s story presents this information:
Officials from the IDF’s Information Security Department were always aware of this risk, and require users to sign a statement that they adhere to information security guidelines. This declaration did not prevent some users from ignoring the guidelines. For example, any user could easily find documents uploaded by members of the Air Force’s elite Squadron 69.
Regarding the China-linked CamScanner software, Haaretz offers this information:
… several files that were uploaded to the system had been scanned using CamScanner. These included a duty roster and biannual training schedules, two classified training presentations outlining methods for dealing with enemy weaponry, and even training materials for operating classified weapons systems.
Regarding security procedures, Haaretz states:
According to standard IDF regulations, even discussing classified matters near mobile phones is prohibited, due to concerns about eavesdropping. Scanning such materials using a phone is, all the more so, strictly forbidden…According to the Click Portal usage guidelines, only unclassified files can be uploaded to the system. This is the lowest level of classification, followed by restricted, confidential, secret and top secret classifications.
The military unit involved was allegedly Squadron 69 which could be the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit. The group might be involved in war planning and fighting against the adversaries of Israel. Haaretz asserts that other units’ sensitive information was exposed within the MSFT Azure SharePoint Click Portal system.
Several observations seem to be warranted:
- Overly complicated systems involving multiple products increase the likelihood of access control issues. Either operators are not well trained or the interfaces and options confuse an operator so errors result
- The training of those involved in sensitive information access and handling has to be made more rigorous despite the tendency to “go through the motions” and move on in many professionals undergoing specialized instruction
- The “brand” of Israel’s security systems and procedures has taken another hit with the allegations spelled out by Haaretz. October 2023 and now Squadron 69. This raises the question, “What else is not buttoned up and ready for inspection in the Israel security sector?
Net net: I don’t want to accept this write up as 100 percent accurate. I don’t want to point the finger of blame at any one individual, government entity, or commercial enterprise. But security issues and Microsoft seem to be similar to ham and eggs and peanut butter and jelly from this dinobaby’s point of view.
Stephen E Arnold, April 23, 2025
Management Challenges in Russian IT Outfits
April 23, 2025
Believe it or not, no smart software. Just a dumb and skeptical dinobaby.
Don’t ask me how, but I stumbled upon a Web site called PCNews.ru. I was curious, so fired up the ever-reliable Google Translate and checked out what “news” about “PCs” meant to the Web site creator. One article surprised me. If I reproduce the Russian title it will be garbled by the truly remarkable WordPress system I have been using since 2008. The title of this article in English courtesy of the outfit that makes services available for free is, “Systemic Absurdity: How Bureaucracy and Algorithms Replace Meaning.”
One thing surprised me. The author was definitely annoyed by bureaucracy. He offers some interesting examples. I can’t use these in my lectures, but I found sufficiently different to warrant my writing this blog post.
Here are three examples:
- “Bureaucracy is the triumph of reason, where KPIs are becoming a new religion. According to Harvard Business Review (2021), 73% of employees do not see the connection between their actions and the company’s mission.”
- 41 percent of the time “military personnel in the EU is spent on complying with regulations”
- “In 45% of US hospitals, diagnoses are deliberately complicated (JAMA Internal Medicine, 2022)”
Sporty examples indeed.
The author seems conversant with American blue chip consultant outputs; for example, and I quote:
- 42% of employees who regularly help others face a negative performance evaluation due to "distraction from core tasks". Harvard Business Review (2022)
- 82% of managers believe cross-functional collaboration is risky (Deloitte, Global Human Capital Trends special report 2021).
- 61% of managers believe that cross-functional assistance “reduces personal productivity.” “The Collaboration Paradox” Deloitte (2021)
Where is the author going with his anti-bureaucracy approach? Here’s a clue:
I once completed training under the MS program and even thought about getting certified? Do they teach anything special there and do they give anything that is not in the documentation on the vendor’s website/books/Internet? No.
I think this means that training and acquiring certifications is another bureaucratic process disconnected from technical performance.
The author then brings up the issue of competence versus appearance. He writes or quotes (I can’t tell which):
"A study by Hamermesh and Park (2011) showed that attractive people earn on average 10-15% more than their less attractive colleagues. The work of Timasin et al. (2017) found that candidates with an attractive appearance are 30% more likely to receive job offers, all other things being equal. In a study by Harvard Business Review (2019), managers were more likely to recommend promotion to employees with a "successful appearance", associating them with leadership qualities"
The essay appears to be heading toward a conclusion about technical management, qualifications, and work. The author identifies “remedies” to these issues associated with technical work in an organization. The fixes include:
- Meta regulations; that is, rules for creating rules
- Qualitative, not just quantitative, assessments of an individual’s performance
- Turquoise Organizations
This phrase refers to an approach to management which emphasizes self management and an organic approach to changing an organization and its processes.
The write up is interesting because it suggests that the use of a rigid bureaucracy, smart software, and lots of people produces sub optimal performance. I would hazard a guess that the author feels as though his/her work has not been valued highly. My hunch is that the inclusion of the “be good looking to get promoted” suggests the author is unlikely to be retained to participate in Fashion Week in Paris.
An annoyed IT person, regardless of country and citizenship, can be a frisky critter if not managed effectively. I wonder if the redactions in the documents submitted by Meta were the work of a happy camper or an annoyed one? With Google layoffs, will some of these capable individuals harbor a grudge and take some unexpected decisions about their experiences.
Interesting write up. Amazing how much US management consulting jibber jab the author reads and recycles.
Stephen E Arnold, April 23, 2025
Honesty and Integrity? Are You Kidding Me?
April 23, 2025
No AI, just the dinobaby himself.
I read a blog post which begins with a commercial and self promotion. That allowed me to jump to the actual write up which contains a couple of interesting comments. The write up is about hiring a programmer, coder, or developer right now.
The write up is “Tech Hiring: Is This an Inflection Point?” The answer is, “Yes.” Okay, now what is the interesting part of the article? The author identifies methods of “hiring” which includes interviewing and determining expertise which no longer work.
These methods are:
- Coding challenges done at home
- Exercises done remotely
- Posting jobs on LinkedIn.
Why don’t these methods work?
The answer is, “Job applicants doing anything remotely and under self-supervision cheat. Okay, that explains the words “honesty” and “integrity” in the headline to my blog post.
It does not take a rocket scientist or a person who gives one lecture a year to figure out what works. In case you are wondering, the article says, “Real person interviews.” Okay, I understand. That’s the way getting a job worked before the remote working, Zoom interviews, and AI revolutions took place. Also, one must not forget Covid. Okay, I remember. I did not catch Covid, and I did not change anything about my work routine or daily life. But I did wear a quite nifty super duper mask to demonstrate my concern for others. (Keep in mind that I used to work at Halliburton Nuclear, and I am not sure social sensitivity was a must-have for that work.)
Several observations:
- Common sense is presented as a great insight. Sigh.
- Watching a live prospect do work yields high value information. But the observer must not doom scroll or watch TikToks in my opinion.
- Allowing the candidate to speak with other potential colleagues and getting direct feedback delivers another pick up truck of actionable information.
Now what’s the stand out observation in the self-promotional write up?
LinkedIn is losing value.
I find that interesting. I have noticed that the service seems to be struggling to generate interest and engagement. I don’t pay for LinkedIn. I am 80, and I don’t want to bond, interact, or share with individuals whom I will never meet in the short time I have left to bedevil readers of this Beyond Search post.
I think Microsoft is taking the same approach to LinkedIn that it has to the problem of security for its operating systems, the reliability of its updates, and the amazingly weird indifference to flaws in the cloud synchronization service.
That’s useful information. And, no, I won’t be attending the author’s one lecture a year, subscribing to his for fee newsletter, or listening to his podcast. Stating the obvious is not my cup of tea. But I liked the point about LinkedIn and the implications about honesty and integrity.
Stephen E Arnold, April 23, 2025
HP and Dead Printers: Hey, Okay, We Will Not Pay
April 8, 2025
HP found an effective way to ensure those who buy its printers also buy its pricy ink: Firmware updates that bricked the printers if a competitor’s cartridge was installed. Not all customers appreciated the ingenuity. Ars Technica reports, "HP Avoids Monetary Damages Over Bricked Printers in Class-Action Settlement." Reporter Scharon Harding writes:
"In December 2020, Mobile Emergency Housing Corp. and a company called Performance Automotive & Tire Center filed a class-action complaint against HP [PDF], alleging that the company ‘wrongfully compels users of its printers to buy and use only HP ink and toner supplies by transmitting firmware updates without authorization to HP printers over the Internet that lock out its competitors’ ink and toner supply cartridges.’ The complaint centered on a firmware update issued in November 2020; it sought a court ruling that HP’s actions broke the law, an injunction against the firmware updates, and monetary and punitive damages. ‘HP’s firmware "updates" act as malware—adding, deleting or altering code, diminishing the capabilities of HP printers, and rendering the competitors’ supply cartridges incompatible with HP printers,’ the 2020 complaint reads."
Yikes. The name HP gave this practice is almost Orwellian. We learn:
"HP calls using updates to prevent printers from using third-party ink and toner Dynamic Security. The term aims to brand the device bricking as a security measure. In recent years, HP has continued pushing this claim, despite security experts that Ars has spoken with agreeing that there’s virtually zero reason for printer users to worry about getting hacked through ink."
No kidding. After nearly four years of litigation, the parties reached a settlement. HP does not admit any wrongdoing and will not pay monetary relief to affected customers. It must, however, let users decline similar updates; well, those who own a few particular models, anyway. It will also put disclaimers about Dynamic Security on product pages. Because adding a couple lines to the fine print will surely do the trick.
Harding notes that, though this settlement does not include monetary restitution, other decisions have. Those few million dollars do not seem to have influenced HP to abolish the practice, however.
Cynthia Murrell, April 8, 2025
Looking Busy, While Slacking
April 3, 2025
Another dinobaby blog post. Eight decades and still thrilled when I point out foibles.
I am fascinated by people who delegate routine, courteous business functions to software and then to other people. The idea is that a busy person can accomplish much more if they are really busy but organized. I find this laughable.
In my experience, the people with full-time jobs with whom I interact are in a perpetual rush to go from one mostly pointless activity to their mobile phone and back again. Here’s an approach that has worked for some successful people. I exclude myself because I am an 80-year-old dinobaby loser.
The secret sauce consists of:
- Knowing what is important by day, week, month, and year. Do what’s important yourself. If you delegate, delegate with intelligence of the goal and expected outcome.
- Set priorities but have sufficient situational intelligence to adapt to the endlessly changing business environment. (Software just does stuff; it is not — despite the AI hype — inherently intelligent. And, no, I don’t want to discuss this perception of mine. I do not believe in made up baloney from marketing people or pressured CEOs.
- Recognize that how you interact with other people defines [a] your intelligence, [b] your management and social capabilities, and [c] your professional persona.
I had an email exchange a couple of days ago from a person who told me an individual would contact me. The statement was made two weeks ago. The message was, “Oh, just use our online appointment system and set up an available time.” No kidding. I am now supposed to move from “we will contact you” to navigate to our system and pick an available time. Sorry. That will not happen.
A day ago, a person who said 11 months ago, “I will call you early next week.” I received an email as it was indeed a week later, not 11 months later. Amazing. Both are considerably younger than I am, but neither person is aware of their behavior. This weird approach to business is the norm.
I read “Slack: The Art of Being Busy Without Getting Anything Done” resonated with me. I have an idea: Send the link to the article to these two people who say, “Let’s have lunch” and never call. (That’s a Manhattan trope, by the way. It means, “Hey, you, I will never call you for lunch.” Business life has become a “let’s have lunch” world. Saying something is tantamount to actually doing something.
The write up puts this in terms of a weird information sharing service which is a closed group social media thing. The write up says:
Slack brought channels and channels bought a level of almost voyeurism into what other teams were doing. I knew exactly what everyone was doing all the time, down to I knew where the marketing team liked to go for lunch. Responsiveness became the new corporate religion and I was a true believer.
To me, I think the organizations that function so that a tool like Slack is necessary have some management issues. But that’s the bias of a person who worked at a blue-chip consulting firm for longer than I thought humanly possible.
Here’s a passage I found interesting for a person paid to deliver outputs and meet objectives:
My days had become a never-ending performance of “work”. I was constantly talking about the work, planning the work, discussing the requirements of the work, and then in a truly Sisyphean twist, linking new people to old conversations where we had already discussed the work to get them up to speed on our conversation. All the while diligently monitoring my channels, a digital sentry ensuring no question went unanswered, no emoji not +1’d. That was it, that was the entire job.
What are the markers for this process of doing something that yields no deliverable that matches a job description or a task assigned by a manager to a worker?
Let me highlight a few I have noticed:
- Talking about doing replaces doing itself
- Meetings and follow ups are the work. It goes without saying that delivering an output that generates revenue is not part of the actual activity of the meeting and its follow up
- The mental effort required to do essentially meaningless tasks instead of satisfying deliverables of high quality burns a person out. “There is no there there.” I am not talking about Oakland, California. I am talking about the actual value to the person of doing meaningful work and getting money and mental rewards.
- The organization delivers increasingly degrading outputs. One wordsmith invoked feces to describe how the entity deconstructs. Microsoft shipped an update that killed its AI wunderkind Copilot. More information about new malware hit my in box today. The Epic data form for a routine visit lost the inputs I provided six months ago. My local bank charged my home checking account for over $600,000 and was unable to stop the automated fraud for two weeks.
Net net: Manage effectively and do actual work to deliver the outputs for which you are paid. Understand that both are hard. That’s why people pay you to do work. The craziness of pretending to work will make the worker crazy. If that type of person interacts with me, I just forget it. Dinobabies can do that.
Stephen E Arnold, April 3, 2025
An Econ Paper Designed to Make Most People Complacent about AI
March 19, 2025
Yep, another dinobaby original.
I zipped through — and I mean zipped — a 60 page working paper called “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market.” I have to be upfront. I detested economics, and I still do. I used to take notes when Econ Talk was actually discussing economics. My notes were points that struck me as wildly unjustifiable. That podcast has changed. My view of economics has not. At 80 years of age, do you believe that I will adopt a different analytical stance? Wow, I hope not. You may have to take care of your parents some day and learn that certain types of discourse do not compute.
This paper has multiple authors. In my experience, the more authors, the more complicated the language. Here’s an example:
“Labor demand decreases in the average exposure of workers’ tasks to AI technologies; second, holding the average exposure constant, labor demand increases in the dispersion of task exposures to AI, as workers shift effort to tasks that are not displaced by AI.” ?
The idea is that the impact of smart software will not affect workers equally. As AI gets better at jobs humans do, humans will learn more and get a better job or integrate AI into their work. In some jobs, the humans are going to be out of luck. The good news is that these people can take other jobs or maybe start their own business.
The problem with the document I reviewed is that there are several fundamental “facts of life” that make the paper look a bit wobbly.
First, the minute it is cheaper for smart software to do a job that a human does, the human gets terminated. Software does not require touchy feely interactions, vacations, pay raises, and health care. Software can work as long as the plumbing is working. Humans sleep which is not productive from an employer’s point of view.
Second, government policies won’t work. Why? Government bureaucracies are reactive. By the time, a policy arrives, the trend or the smart software revolution has been off to the races. One cannot put spilled radioactive waste back into its containment vessel quickly, easily, or cheaply. How’s that Fukushima remediation going?
Third, the reskilling idea is baloney. Most people are not skilled in reskilling themselves. Life long learning is not a core capability of most people. Sure, in theory anyone can learn. The problem is that most people are happy planning a vacation, doom scrolling, or watch TikTok-type videos. Figuring out how to make use of smart software capabilities is not as popular as watching the Super Bowl.
Net net: The AI services are getting better. That means that most people will be faced with a re-employment challenge. I don’t think LinkedIn posts will do the job.
Stephen E Arnold, March 19, 2025
Now I Get It: Duct Tape Jobs Are the Problem
February 19, 2025
A dinobaby post. No smart software involved.
“Is Ops a Bullsh&t Job?” appears to address the odd world of fix it people who work on systems of one sort of anther. The focus in the write up is on software, but I think the essay reveals broader insight into work today. First, let’s look at a couple of statements in this very good essay, and, second, turn our attention briefly to the non-software programming sector.
I noted this passage attributed to an entity allegedly named Pablo:
Basically, we have two kinds of jobs. One kind involves working on core technologies, solving hard and challenging problems, etc. The other one is taking a bunch of core technologies and applying some duct tape to make them work together. The former is generally seen as useful. The latter is often seen as less useful or even useless, but, in any case, much less gratifying than the first kind. The feeling is probably based on the observation that if core technologies were done properly, there would be little or no need for duct tape.
The distinction strikes me as important. The really good programmers work on the “core” part of a system. A number of companies embrace this stratification of the allegedly most talented programmers and developers. This is a spin on what my seventh grade teacher called a “caste system.” I do remember thinking, “It is very important to get to the top of the pyramid; otherwise, life will be a chore.”
Another passage warranted a blue circle:
A “duct taper” is a role that only exists to solve a problem that ought not to exist in the first place.
The essay then provides some examples. Here are three from the essay:
-
- “My job was to transfer information about the state’s oil wells into a different set of notebooks than they were currently in.”
- “My day consisted of photocopying veterans’ health records for seven and a half hours a day. Workers were told time and again that it was too costly to buy the machines for digitizing.”
- “I was given one responsibility: watching an in-box that received emails in a certain form from employees in the company asking for tech help, and copy and paste it into a different form.”
Good stuff.
With that as background, here’s what I think the essay suggests.
The reason so many gratuitous changes, lousy basic services, and fights at youth baseball games are evident is a lack of meaningful work. Undertaking a project which a person and everyone else around the individual knows is meaningless, creates a persistent sense of unease.
How is this internal agitation manifested? Let me identify several from my experiences this week. None is directly “technical” but lurking in the background is the application of information to a function. When that information is distorted by the duct tape wrapped around a sensitive area, these are what happens in real life.
First, I had to get a tax sticker for my license plate. The number of people at the state agency was limited. More people entered than left. The cycle time for a sticker issuing professional was about 75 minutes. When I reached the desk of the SIP I presented my documents. I learned that my proof of insurance was a one page summary of the policy I had on my auto. I learned, “We can only accept insurance cards. This is a sheet of paper, not a card. You come back when you have the card. Next.” Nifty. Duct tape wrapped around a procedure that required a policy number and the name of the insurance provider.
Second, I bought three plastic wrapped packages of bottled water. I picked up a quart of milk. I put a package of raisins in my basket. I went through the self check out because no humans worked at the check out jobs at the time I visited. I scanned my items and placed them on the “Put purchases here” area. I inserted my credit card and the system honked and displayed, “Stay here a manager is coming.” Okay, I stayed there and noted that the other three self check outs had similar messages and honks coming from those self check out systems. I watched as a harried young person tried to determine if each of the four customers had stolen items. The fix he implemented was to have the four of us rescan the items. My system honked. My milk was not in the store’s system as a valid product. He asked me to step aside, and he entered the product number manually. Success for him. Utter failure for the grocery store.
Third, I picked up two shirts from the cleaners. I like my shirts with heavy starch. The two shirts had no starch. The young person had no idea what to do. I said, “Send the shirts through the process again and have your colleagues dip them in starch. The young worker told me, “We can’t do that. You have to pay the bill and then I will create a new work order.” Sorry. I paid the bill and went to another company’s store.
I am not sure these are duct tape jobs. If I needed money, I would certainly do the work and try to do my best. The message in the essay is that there are duct tape jobs. I disagree. The worker sees the job as beneath him or her and does not put physical, emotional, or intellectual effort in providing value to the employer or the customer.
Instead we get silly interface changes in Windows. We get truly stupid explanations about why a policy number cannot be entered from a sheet of paper, not a “card.” We get non-functioning check out systems and employees who don’t say, “Come to the register. I will get these processed and you out of here as fast as I can.”
Duct tape in the essay is about software. I think duct tape is a mind set issue. Use duct tape to make something better.
Stephen E Arnold, February 19, 2025
Teenie Boppers and Smart Software: Yep, Just Have Money
January 23, 2025
This blog post is the work of an authentic dinobaby. Sorry. No smart software can help this reptilian thinker.
I scanned the research summary “About a Quarter of U.S. Teens Have Used ChatGPT for Schoolwork – Double the Share in 2023.” Like other Pew data, the summary contained numerous numbers. I was not sufficiently motivated to dig into the methodology to find out how the sample was assembled nor how Pew got the mobile addicted youth were prompted to provide presumably truthful answers to direct questions. But why nit pick? We are at the onset of an interesting year which will include forthcoming announcements about how algorithms are agentic and able to fuel massive revenue streams for those in the know.
Students doing their homework while their parents play polo. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Good enough. I do like the croquet mallets and volleyball too. But children from well-to-do families have such items in abundance.
Let’s go to the video tape, as the late and colorful Warner Wolf once said to his legion of Washington, DC, fan.
One of the highlights of the summary was this finding:
Teens who are most familiar with ChatGPT are more likely to use it for their schoolwork. Some 56% of teens who say they’ve heard a lot about it report using it for schoolwork. This share drops to 18% among those who’ve only heard a little about it.
Not surprisingly, the future leaders of America embrace short cuts. The question is, “How quickly will awareness reach 99 percent and usage nosing above 75 percent?” My guesstimate is pretty quickly. Convenience and more time to play with mobile phones will drive the adoption. Who in America does not like convenience?
Another finding catching my eye was:
Teens from households with higher annual incomes are most likely to say they’ve heard about ChatGPT. The shares who say this include 84% of teens in households with incomes of $75,000 or more say they’ve heard at least a little about ChatGPT.
I found this interesting because it appears to suggest that if a student comes from a home where money does not seem to be a huge problem, the industrious teens are definitely aware of smart software. And when it comes to using the digital handmaiden, Pew finds apparently nothing. There is no data point relating richer progeny with greater use. Instead we learned:
Teens who are most familiar with the chatbot are also more likely to say using it for schoolwork is OK. For instance, 79% of those who have heard a lot about ChatGPT say it’s acceptable to use for researching new topics. This compares with 61% of those who have heard only a little about it.
My thought is that more wealthy families are more likely to have teens who know about smart software. I would hypothesize that wealthy parents will pay for the more sophisticated smart software and smile benignly as the future intelligentsia stride confidently to ever brighter futures. Those without the money will get the opportunity to watch their classmates have more time for mobile phone scrolling, unboxing Amazon deliveries, and grabbing burgers at Five Guys.
I am not sure that the link between wealth and access to learning experiences is a random, one-off occurrence. If I am correct, the Pew data suggest that smart software is not reinforcing democracy. It seems to be making a digital Middle Ages more and more probable. But why think about what a dinobaby hypothesizes? It is tough to scroll zippy mobile phones with old paws and yellowing claws.
Stephen E Arnold, January 23, 2025
AI Doom: Really Smart Software Is Coming So Start Being Afraid, People
January 20, 2025
Prepared by a still-alive dinobaby.
The essay “Prophecies of the Flood” gathers several comments about software that thinks and decides without any humans fiddling around. The “flood” metaphor evokes the streams of money about which money people fantasize. The word “flood” evokes the Hebrew Biblical idea’s presentation of a divinely initiated cataclysm intended to cleanse the Earth of widespread wickedness. Plus, one cannot overlook the image of small towns in North Carolina inundated in mud and debris from a very bad storm.
When the AI flood strikes as a form of divine retribution, will the modern arc be filled with humans? Nope. The survivors will be those smart agents infused with even smarter software. Tough luck, humanoids. Thanks, OpenAI, I knew you could deliver art that is good enough.
To sum up: A flood is bad news, people.
The essay states:
the researchers and engineers inside AI labs appear genuinely convinced they’re witnessing the emergence of something unprecedented. Their certainty alone wouldn’t matter – except that increasingly public benchmarks and demonstrations are beginning to hint at why they might believe we’re approaching a fundamental shift in AI capabilities. The water, as it were, seems to be rising faster than expected.
The signs of darkness, according to the essay, include:
- Rising water in the generally predictable technology stream in the park populated with ducks
- Agents that “do” something for the human user or another smart software system. To humans with MBAs, art history degrees, and programming skills honed at a boot camp, the smart software is magical. Merlin wears a gray T shirt, sneakers, and faded denims
- Nifty art output in the form of images and — gasp! — videos.
The essay concludes:
The flood of intelligence that may be coming isn’t inherently good or bad – but how we prepare for it, how we adapt to it, and most importantly, how we choose to use it, will determine whether it becomes a force for progress or disruption. The time to start having these conversations isn’t after the water starts rising – it’s now.
Let’s assume that I buy this analysis and agree with the notion “prepare now.” How realistic is it that the United Nations, a couple of super powers, or a motivated individual can have an impact? Gentle reader, doom sells. Examples include The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, The Shifts and Shocks: What We’ve Learned – and Have Still to Learn – from the Financial Crisis, and Too Big to Fail: How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System from Crisis – and Themselves, and others, many others.
Have these dissections of problems had a material effect on regulators, elected officials, or the people in the bank down the street from your residence? Answer: Nope.
Several observations:
- Technology doom works because innovations have positive and negative impacts. To make technology exciting, no one is exactly sure what the knock on effects will be. Therefore, doom is coming along with the good parts
- Taking a contrary point of view creates opportunities to engage with those who want to hear something different. Insecurity is a powerful sales tool.
- Sending messages about future impacts pulls clicks. Clicks are important.
Net net: The AI revolution is a trope. Never mind that after decades of researchers’ work, a revolution has arrived. Lionel Messi allegedly said, “It took me 17 years to become an overnight success.” (Mr. Messi is a highly regarded professional soccer player.)
Will the ill-defined technology kill humans? Answer: Who knows. Will humans using ill-defined technology like smart software kill humans? Answer: Absolutely. Can “anyone” or “anything” take an action to prevent AI technology from rippling through society. Answer: Nope.
Stephen E Arnold, January 20, 2025
Microsoft: Marketing and Semi Functional Technology Amuse Some People
January 17, 2025
Prepared by a still-alive dinobaby.
With support for Windows 10 ending, Microsoft is understandably eager for users to upgrade before then. Its latest nudge, however, may not have the desired effect. TechRadar reports, "Microsoft Embarrasses Itself with Windows 10 Pop-Up that Hogs the Desktop Urging an Upgrade to Windows 11—then Promptly Crashes." Oh dear. Writer Darren Allen elaborates:
"In a rather embarrassing turn of events for Microsoft, its latest bid to urge Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11 has gone awry because the pop-up in question crashes. This is a full-screen pop-up, of which we’ve seen very similar (if not identical) variants before, which urges you to ‘Start planning for Windows 10 end of support’ ahead of the End of Life date for the OS which is October 2025. … The fresh wrinkle here, though, as Windows Latest reports, is that this pop-up is crashing for some Windows 10 users, as flagged up by a denizen of X (@ems_konto). So, what we have here is a message urging you to start planning what you’ll do when Windows 10 support runs out, telling you to prepare now, and that the Windows Backup app can help you transfer all your files to a new Windows 11 PC. And then the pop-up window immediately freezes, becomes unresponsive, and informs the user that ‘Reusable UX Interaction Manager is not working’ – whoops."
Not great for a company trying to usher users into the next iteration of its OS. Will users lose confidence and look elsewhere? A few Windows alternatives do exist, though none that are both cheap and easy to migrate to. Will more folks consider the adventure of using Linux? Perhaps a few will ditch the PC altogether for a Mac. We suspect most will just stick with the company they know, embarrassing glitches and all. Inertia, marketing, and good enough engineering are hallmarks of the company absolutely everyone eager to have a digital mom reminding them to do what is right and proper. Does mom follow the rules? Nah, my mother was a PTA cookie hustler. Who knows that one’s mom really did?
Stephen E Arnold, January 17, 2025
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