Who Knew? A Perfect Bribery Vehicle, According to Ethereum Creator
January 30, 2025
A blog post from an authentic dinobaby. He’s old; he’s in the sticks; and he is deeply skeptical.
I read “Ethereum Creator Vitalik Buterin: Politician Issued Coins Perfect Bribery Vehicle.” Isn’t Mr. Buterin a Russian Canadian? People with these cultural influences can spot a plastic moose quickly in experience.
The write up reports:
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has criticized cryptocurrencies issued by politicians as “a perfect bribery vehicle.” “If a politician issues a coin, you do not even need to send them any coins to give them money,” Buterin explained in a tweet. “Instead, you just buy and hold the coin, and this increases the value of their holdings passively.” He added that one of the reasons these “politician coins” are potentially excellent tools for bribery is the element of “deniability.”
Mr. Buterin is quoted in the write up as saying:
“I recommend politicians do not go down this path.”
Who knew that a plastic moose would become animated and frighten the insightful Russian Canadian? What sound does a plastic moose make? Hee haw hee haw.
Nope, that’s a jackass. Easy mistake.
Stephen E Arnold, January 30, 2025
What Do DeepSeek, a Genius Girl, and Temu Have in Common? Quite a Lot
January 28, 2025
A write up from a still-living dinobaby.
The Techmeme for January 28, 2024, was mostly Deepseek territory. The China-linked AI model has roiled the murky waters of the US smart software fishing hole. A big, juicy AI creature has been pulled from the lake, and it is drawing a crowd. Here’s a small portion of the datasphere thrashing on January 28, 2025 at 0700 am US Eastern time:
I have worked through a number of articles about this open source software. I noted its back story about a venture firm’s skunk works tackling AI. Armed with relatively primitive tools due to the US restriction of certain computer components, the small team figured out how to deliver results comparable to the benchmarks published about US smart software systems.
Genius girl uses basic and cheap tools to repair an old generator. Americans buy a new generator from Harbor Freight. Genius girl repairs old generator proving the benefits of a better way or a shining path. Image from the YouTube outfit which does work the American way.
The story is torn from the same playbook which produces YouTube “real life” stories like “The genius girl helps the boss to repair the diesel generator, full of power!” You can view the one-hour propaganda film at this link. Here’s a short synopsis, and I want you to note the theme of the presentation:
- Young-appearing female works outside
- She uses primitive tools
- She takes apart a complex machine
- She repairs it
- The machine is better than a new machine.
The videos are interesting. The message has not been deconstructed. My interpretation is:
- Hard working female tackles tough problem
- Using ingenuity and hard work she cracks the code
- The machine works
- Why buy a new one? Use what you have and overcome obstacles.
This is not the “Go west, young man” or private equity approach to cracking an important problem. It is political and cultural with a dash of Hoisin technical sauce. The video presents a message like that of “plum blossom boxing.” It looks interesting but packs a wallop.
Here’s a point that has not been getting much attention; specifically, the AI probe is designed to direct a flow of energy at the most delicate and vulnerable part of the US artificial intelligence “next big thing” pumped up technology “bro.”
What is that? The answer is cost. The method has been refined by Shein and Temu by poking at Amazon. Here’s how the “genius girl” uses ingenuity.
- Technical papers are published
- Open source software released
- Basic information about using what’s available released
- Cost information is released.
The result is that a Chinese AI app surges to the top of downloads on US mobile stores. This is a first. Not even the TikTok service achieved this standing so quickly. The US speculators dump AI stocks. Techmeme becomes the news service for Chinese innovation.
I see this as an effective tactic for demonstrating the value of the “genius girl” approach to solving problems. And where did Chinese government leadership watch the AI balloon lose some internal pressure. How about Colombia, a three-hour plane flight from the capital of Central and South America. (That’s Miami in the event my reference was too oblique.)
In business, cheaper and good enough are very potent advantages. The Deepseek AI play is indeed about a new twist to today’s best method of having software perform in a way that most call “smart.” But the Deepseek play is another “genius girl” play from the Middle Kingdom.
How can the US replicate the “genius girl” or the small venture firm which came up with a better idea? That’s going to be touch. While the genius girl was repairing the generator, the US AI sector was seeking more money to build giant data centers to hold thousands of exotic computing tools. Instead of repairing, the US smart software aficionados were planning on modular nuclear reactors to make the next-generation of smart software like the tail fins on a 1959 pink Cadillac.
Deepseek and the “genius girl” are not about technology. Deepseek is a manifestation of the Shein and Temu method: Fast cycle, cheap and good enough. The result is an arm flapping response from the American way of AI. Oh, does the genius girl phone home? Does she censor what she says and does?
Stephen E Arnold, January 28, 2025
China Smart, US Dumb: Some AI Readings in English
January 28, 2025
A blog post from an authentic dinobaby. He’s old; he’s in the sticks; and he is deeply skeptical.
I read a short post in YCombinator’s Hacker News this morning (January 23, 2025). The original article is titled “Deepseek and the Effects of GPU Export Controls.” If you are interested in the poli sci approach to smart software, dive in. However, in the couple of dozen comments on Hacker News to the post, a contributor allegedly named LHL posted some useful links. I have pulled these from the comments and displayed them for your competitive intelligence large language model. On the other hand, you can read them because you are interested in what’s shaking in the Lin-gang Free Trade Zone in the Middle Kingdom:
Deepseek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning
Deepseek Coder V2: Breaking the Barrier of Closed Source Models in Code Intelligence
Deepseek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model
Deepseek LLM Scaling Open-Source Language Models with Longtermism
First, a thanks to the poster LHL. The search string links timed out, so you may already be part of the HN herd who is looking at the generated bibliography.
Second, several observations:
- China has lots of people. There are numerous highly skilled mathematicians, Monte Carlo and gradient descent wonks, and darned good engineers. One should not assume that wizardry ends with big valuations and tie ups among Oracle, Open AI and the savvy funder of Banjo, an intelware outfit of some repute.
- Computing resource constraints translate into one outcome. Example: Howard Flank, one of my team members, received the Information Industry Association Award decades ago for cramming a searchable index of the Library of Congress’ holdings. Remember those wonderful machines in the early 1980s. Yeah, Howard did wonders with limited resources. The Chinese professionals can too and have. (Note to US government committee members: Keep Howard and similar engineering whiz kids in mind when thinking about how curtailing computer resources will stop innovation.)
- Deepseek’s methods are likely to find there way into some US wrapper products presented as groundbreaking AI. Nope. These innovations are enabled by an open source technology. Now what happens if an outfit like Telegram or one of the many cyber gangs which Microsoft’s Brad Smith references? Yeah. Innovation of a type that is not salubrious.
- The authors of the papers are important. Should these folks be cross correlated with other information about grants, academic affiliations with US institutions, and conference attendance?
In case anyone is curious, from my dinobaby point of view, the most important paper in the bunch is the one about a “mixture of experts.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 28, 2025
National Security: A Last Minute Job?
January 20, 2025
On its way out the door, the Biden administration has enacted a prudent policy. Whether it will persist long under the new administration is anyone’s guess. The White House Briefing Room released a “Fact Sheet: Ensuring U.S. Security and Economic Strength in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.” The rule provides six key mechanisms on the diffusion of U.S. Technology. The statement specifies:
“In the wrong hands, powerful AI systems have the potential to exacerbate significant national security risks, including by enabling the development of weapons of mass destruction, supporting powerful offensive cyber operations, and aiding human rights abuses, such as mass surveillance. Today, countries of concern actively employ AI – including U.S.-made AI – in this way, and seek to undermine U.S. AI leadership. To enhance U.S. national security and economic strength, it is essential that we do not offshore this critical technology and that the world’s AI runs on American rails. It is important to work with AI companies and foreign governments to put in place critical security and trust standards as they build out their AI ecosystems. To strengthen U.S. security and economic strength, the Biden-Harris Administration today is releasing an Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion. It streamlines licensing hurdles for both large and small chip orders, bolsters U.S. AI leadership, and provides clarity to allied and partner nations about how they can benefit from AI. It builds on previous chip controls by thwarting smuggling, closing other loopholes, and raising AI security standards.”
The six mechanisms specify 18 key allies to whom no restrictions apply and create a couple trusted statuses other entities can attain. They also support cooperation between governments on export controls, clean energy, and technology security. As for “countries of concern,” the rule seeks to ensure certain advanced technologies do not make it into their hands. See the briefing for more details.
The measures add to previous security provisions, including the October 2022 and October 2023 chip controls. We are assured they were informed by conversations with stakeholders, bipartisan members of Congress, industry representatives, and foreign allies over the previous 10 months. Sounds like it was a lot of work. Let us hope it does not soon become wasted effort.
Cynthia Murrell, January 20, 2025
FOGINT: Russia Reveals How Important Telegram Is to Its Propaganda Program
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
Telegram that messaging service is important to Russia’s European propaganda efforts. Russia suggested that Telegram block messages from the Ukrainian government to Russians using Telegram April 2024. The filtering was big news in Ukraine; in the US, the Telegram action was lost in the cacophony of 24×7 digital information flows. This means that few Americans knew or cared about this Telegram acquiescence to the Kremlin.
A number of news outlets have reported that Telegram is more important to the Putin regime than many realized. Jurist.org reported in “Russia Threatens Retaliation Over Blocking of State Media Telegram Channels Across EU.” The write up states:
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that users attempting to access the Telegram channels of Russian state broadcasters, including RIA Novosti, Izvestia and RT, are being notified of limited access in the EU. Russia characterized the blockage as “political censorship” in violation of international obligations on free information access. Moscow warned that “specialized international organizations should duly evaluate these actions” and demanded a response from UN human rights mechanisms and UNESCO leadership.
The Jurist article adds:
This latest dispute over media access follows a pattern of escalating restrictions between Russia and the EU since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war prompted the EU to impose massive and unprecedented sanctions against Russia, including restrictions on state media outlets accused of spreading propaganda. In June 2024, Russia blocked access to 81 European media websites from 25 European countries, affecting outlets like France’s Agence France-Presse (AFP), Le Monde, and Liberation. This action came after the EU banned four Russian state media outlets in May 2024. The EU accused the outlets Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta of disseminating propaganda about the war in Ukraine.
The question the article does not address is, “What are the likely retaliatory measures?” Russia has blocked major European news Web sites, including Der Spiegel and El Pais, among others. Mr. Putin’s “threats” have been characterized as verbal assertions, not cyber attacks designed to cripple key EU countries or direct kinetic action against the United Kingdom.
Several observations are warranted:
- Telegram is a big player for Russia’s propaganda machine
- The Kremlin’s grousing makes it clear that some Telegram marketing verbiage is baloney when asserting that the organization operates without compromising “freedom of speech”
- The frantic push by Telegram in the crypto space can be interpreted as part of the Russia-supported effort to undermine the US dollar and get around sanctions imposed on Russia as a consequence of the three-year special operation.
Net net: Telegram warrants close observation in 2025.
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
Identifying Misinformation: A Task Not Yet Mastered
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
On New Year’s eve the US Department of Treasury issued a news release about Russian interference in the recent US presidential election. Tucked into the document “Treasury Sanctions Entities in Iran and Russia That Attempted to Interfere in the U.S. 2024 Election” was this passage:
GRU-AFFILIATED ENTITY USES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TOOLS TO INTERFERE IN THE U.S. 2024 ELECTION
The Moscow-based Center for Geopolitical Expertise (CGE), founded by OFAC-designated [Office of Foreign Asset Control — Editor] Aleksandr Dugin, directs and subsidizes the creation and publication of deepfakes and circulated disinformation about candidates in the U.S. 2024 general election. CGE personnel work directly with a GRU unit that oversees sabotage, political interference operations, and cyberwarfare targeting the West. Since at least 2024, a GRU officer and CGE affiliate directed CGE Director Valery Mikhaylovich Korovin (Korovin) and other CGE personnel to carry out various influence operations targeting the U.S. 2024 presidential election. At the direction of, and with financial support from, the GRU, CGE and its personnel used generative AI tools to quickly create disinformation that would be distributed across a massive network of websites designed to imitate legitimate news outlets to create false corroboration between the stories, as well as to obfuscate their Russian origin. CGE built a server that hosts the generative AI tools and associated AI-created content, in order to avoid foreign web-hosting services that would block their activity. The GRU provided CGE and a network of U.S.-based facilitators with financial support to: build and maintain its AI-support server; maintain a network of at least 100 websites used in its disinformation operations; and contribute to the rent cost of the apartment where the server is housed. Korovin played a key role in coordinating financial support from the GRU to his employees and U.S.-based facilitators. In addition to using generative AI to construct and disseminate disinformation targeting the U.S. electorate in the lead up to the U.S. 2024 general election, CGE also manipulated a video it used to produce baseless accusations concerning a 2024 vice presidential candidate in an effort to sow discord amongst the U.S. electorate. Today, OFAC is designating CGE and Korovin pursuant to E.O. 13848 for having directly or indirectly engaged in, sponsored, concealed, or otherwise been complicit in foreign malign influence in the 2024 U.S. election. Additionally, OFAC is designating CGE pursuant to E.O. 13694, as amended, E.O. 14024, and section 224 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act of 2017 (CAATSA) for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the GRU, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 13694, as amended, E.O. 14024, and section 224 of CAATSA. OFAC is also designating Korovin pursuant to E.O. 14024 for being or having been a leader, official, senior executive officer, or member of the board of directors of CGE, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 14024.
Several questions arise:
- Was the smart software open source or commercial? What model or models powered the misinformation effort?
- What functions could intermediaries / service providers add to their existing systems to identify and block the actions of an adversary’s operative? (Obviously existing software to identify “fake” content do not work particularly well.)
- What safeguard standards can be used to prevent misuse of smart software? Are safeguard standards possible or too difficult to implement in a “run fast and break things” setting?
- What procedures and specialized software are required to provide security professionals with a reliable early warning system? The fact of this interference illustrates that the much-hyped cyber alert services do not function in a way sufficiently accurate to deal with willful misinformation “factories.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
UK The Register Emits News of Chinese Cyber Excreta
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
I loved this write up from the UK’s The Register online information service: “China’s Cyber Intrusions Took a Sinister Turn in 2024.” The write up gathers together some notable cyber events and links them to the Middle Kingdom. Examples include:
- Router exploits
- Compromising infrastructure of major American cities
- The exfiltration of data from US telephony companies
The write up includes the zippy names cyber security researchers give these exploits and their perpetrators; for example, Volt Typhoon and Vanguard Panda.
Perhaps the most important statement in the article is, in my opinion:
“We cannot say with certainty that the adversary has been evicted, because we still don’t know the scope of what they’re doing,” Jeff Greene, CISA’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, told reporters during a Salt Typhoon briefing in early December.
Several observations:
- The attacks are not confined to the estimable Microsoft software; more commercial software is providing warm, comfortable havens for attacking systems and stealing data
- The existing cyber security systems — no matter what the marketers say in sales material and at law enforcement / intelligence conferences — does not work very well
- Different cyber investigators discover novel, unknown, and possibly unique exploits unearthed and exploited by bad actors in China. Other countries enjoy the fruits of lousy security too I want to add.
So what? What happens if one shoots enough bullets at Butch Cassidy’s and the Sundance Kids’ adobe hideout? Answer: It falls down. Each exploit is a digital bullet hole. Without remediation — serious remediation — the US may suffer some structural collapses. PR, smarmy talk, and excuses won’t do the job.
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
China Smart, US Dumb: The Deepseek Interview
January 6, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. I used AI to assist me in this AI. In fact, I used the ChatGPT system which seems to be the benchmark against which China’s AI race leader measures itself. This suggests that Deepseek has a bit of a second-place mentality, a bit of jealousy, and possibly a signal of inferiority, doesn’t it?
“Deepseek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race” is a good example of what the Middle Kingdom is revealing about smart software. The 5,000 word essay became available as a Happy New Year’s message to the US. Like the girl repairing broken generators without fancy tools, the message is clear to me: 2025 is going to be different.
Here’s an abstract of the “interview” generated by a US smart software system. I would have used Deepseek, but I don’t have access to it. I used the ChatGPT service which Deepseek has surpassed to create the paragraph below. Make sure the summary is in line with the ChinaTalk original and read the 5,000 word original and do some comparisons.
Deepseek, a Chinese AI startup, has emerged as an innovator in the AI industry, surpassing OpenAI’s o1 model with its R1 model on reasoning benchmarks. Backed entirely by High-Flyer, a top Chinese quantitative hedge fund, Deepseek focuses on foundational AI research, eschewing commercialization and emphasizing open-source development. The company has disrupted the AI market with breakthroughs like the multi-head latent attention and sparse mixture-of-experts architectures, which significantly reduce inference and computational costs, sparking a price war among Chinese AI developers. Liang Wenfeng, Deepseek CEO, aims to achieve artificial general intelligence through innovation rather than imitation, challenging the common perception that Chinese companies prioritize commercialization over technological breakthroughs. Wenfeng’s background in AI and engineering has fostered a bottom-up, curiosity-driven research culture, enabling the team to develop transformative models. Deepseek Version 2 delivers unparalleled cost efficiency, prompting major tech giants to reduce their API prices. Deepseek’s commitment to innovation extends to its organizational approach, leveraging young, local talent and promoting interdisciplinary collaboration without rigid hierarchies. The company’s open-source ethos and focus on advancing the global AI ecosystem set it apart from other large-model startups. Despite industry skepticism about China’s capacity for original innovation, Deepseek is reshaping the narrative, positioning itself as a catalyst for technological advancement. Liang’s vision highlights the importance of confidence, long-term investment in foundational research, and societal support for hardcore innovation. As Deepseek continues to refine its AGI roadmap, focusing on areas like mathematics, multimodality, and natural language, it exemplifies the transformative potential of prioritizing innovation over short-term profit.
I left the largely unsupported assertions in this summary. I also retained the repeated emphasis on innovation, originality, and local talent. With the aid of smart software, I was able to retain the essence of the content marketing propaganda piece’s 5,000 words.
You may disagree with my viewpoint. That’s okay. Let me annoy you further by offering several observations:
- The release of this PR piece coincides with additional information about China’s infiltration of the US telephone network and the directed cyber attack on the US Treasury.
- The multi-pronged content marketing / propaganda flow about China’s “local talent” is a major theme of these PR efforts. From the humble brilliant girl repairing equipment with primitive tools because she is a “genius” to the notion that China’s young “local talent” have gone beyond what the “imported” talent in the US has been able to achieve are two pronged. One tine of the conceptual pitchfork is that the US is stupid. The other tine is that China just works better, smarter, faster, and cheaper.
- The messaging is largely accomplished using free or low cost US developed systems and methods. This is definitely surfing on other people’s knowledge waves.
Net net: Mr. Putin is annoyed that the European Union wants to block Russia-generated messaging about the “special action.” The US is less concerned about China’s propaganda attacks. The New Year will be interesting, but I have lived through enough “interesting times” to do much more than write blogs posts from my outpost in rural Kentucky. What about you, gentle reader? China smart, US dumb: Which is it?
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2025
Chinese AI Lab Deepseek Grinds Ahead…Allegedly
December 31, 2024
Is the world’s most innovative AI company a low-profile Chinese startup? ChinaTalk examines “Deepseek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race.” The Chinese-tech news site shares an annotated translation of a rare interview with DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng. The journalists note the firm’s latest R1 model just outperformed OpenAI’s o1. In their introduction to the July interview, they write:
“Before Deepseek, CEO Liang Wenfeng’s main venture was High-Flyer, a top 4 Chinese quantitative hedge fund last valued at $8 billion. Deepseek is fully funded by High-Flyer and has no plans to fundraise. It focuses on building foundational technology rather than commercial applications and has committed to open sourcing all of its models. It has also singlehandedly kicked off price wars in China by charging very affordable API rates. Despite this, Deepseek can afford to stay in the scaling game: with access to High-Flyer’s compute clusters, Dylan Patel’s best guess is they have upwards of ‘50k Hopper GPUs,’ orders of magnitude more compute power than the 10k A100s they cop to publicly. Deepseek’s strategy is grounded in their ambition to build AGI. Unlike previous spins on the theme, Deepseek’s mission statement does not mention safety, competition, or stakes for humanity, but only ‘unraveling the mystery of AGI with curiosity’. Accordingly, the lab has been laser-focused on research into potentially game-changing architectural and algorithmic innovations.”
For example, we learn:
“They proposed a novel MLA (multi-head latent attention) architecture that reduces memory usage to 5-13% of the commonly used MHA architecture. Additionally, their original DeepSeekMoESparse structure minimized computational costs, ultimately leading to reduced overall costs.”
Those in Silicon Valley are well aware of this “mysterious force from the East,” with several AI head honchos heaping praise on the firm. The interview is split into five parts. The first examines the large-model price war set off by Deepseek’s V2 release. Next, Wenfeng describes how an emphasis on innovation over imitation sets his firm apart but, in part three, notes that more money does not always lead to more innovation. Part four takes a look at the talent behind DeepSeek’s work, and in part five the CEO looks to the future. Interested readers should check out the full interview. Headquartered in Hangzhou, China, the young firm was founded in 2023.
Cynthia Murrell, December 31, 2024
OpenAI Partners with Defense Startup Anduril to Bring AI to US Military
December 27, 2024
No smart software involved. Just a dinobaby’s work.
We learn from the Independent that “OpenAI Announces Weapons Company Partnership to Provide AI Tech to Military.” The partnership with Anduril represents an about-face for OpenAI. This will excite some people, scare others, and lead to remakes of the “Terminator.” Beyond Search thinks that automated smart death machines are so trendy. China also seems enthused. We learn:
“‘ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and high-tech defense startup Anduril Industries will collaborate to develop artificial intelligence-inflected technologies for military applications, the companies announced. ‘U.S. and allied forces face a rapidly evolving set of aerial threats from both emerging unmanned systems and legacy manned platforms that can wreak havoc, damage infrastructure and take lives,’ the companies wrote in a Wednesday statement. ‘The Anduril and OpenAI strategic partnership will focus on improving the nation’s counter-unmanned aircraft systems (CUAS) and their ability to detect, assess and respond to potentially lethal aerial threats in real-time.’ The companies framed the alliance as a way to secure American technical supremacy during a ‘pivotal moment’ in the AI race against China. They did not disclose financial terms.”
Of course not. Tech companies were once wary of embracing military contracts, but it seems those days are over. Why now? The article observes:
“The deals also highlight the increasing nexus between conservative politics, big tech, and military technology. Palmer Lucky, co-founder of Anduril, was an early, vocal supporter of Donald Trump in the tech world, and is close with Elon Musk. … Vice-president-elect JD Vance, meanwhile, is a protege of investor Peter Thiel, who co-founded Palantir, another of the companies involved in military AI.”
“Involved” is putting it lightly. And as readers may have heard, Musk appears to be best buds with the president elect. He is also at the head of the new Department of Government Efficiency, which sounds like a federal agency but is not. Yet. The commission is expected to strongly influence how the next administration spends our money. Will they adhere to multinational guidelines on military use of AI? Do PayPal alums have any hand in this type of deal?
Cynthia Murrell, December 27, 2024
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