Google Netscape: What the Dickens!
December 14, 2008
I read Joe Wilcox’s articles for the eWeek Microsoft Watch section. I noticed “The Ghost of Netscape Past Is Google.” I must admit the allusions confused me. Netscape, a company without a means of generating sufficient revenue to stay alive. Netscape is no Marley. Netscape died because its business model could not withstand the shock of Microsoft’s giving away Internet Explorer. The passage I most enjoyed in Mr. Wilcox’s write up was:
The Ghost of Netscape Past later comes and hauls the goosebumped Steve Ballmer from his bed—gads, clothed only in an XXL Microsoft Softwear T-Shirt and boxer shorts. The ghost takes Steve to Netscape’s headquarters in late 1995, where employees celebrate an amazing IPO. Time moves forward some months to meetings where Netscape employees brainstorm about creating a Web-based operating system.
Microsoft’s retro clothing makes an appropriate entrance, but the metaphors did not illuminate; they darkened. The checklist of notable developments that plague Microsoft is interesting. But the dénouement is not satisfying. Mr. Wilcox’s last sentence is supposed to be the kicker: “He [Steve Ballmer] will go back in time and buy start up Google.”
Microsoft’s real problem is the ghost of Christmas Yet to Come. Will the firm survive the Google of the now and tomorrow?
This doesn’t do much for me. Here’s my take.
First, Netscape lacked a business model and was easy to Microsoft to deprive of oxygen. Google has a business model that is disruptive and, as it turns out, not so easy to derail or duplicate. The Google business model is the “now” for Microsoft. The Dickens’ Ghost of Christmas presence has effectiveness because the main character is excluded. Scrooge, in Mr. Wilcox’s article, is on the outside looking in. The mention of Scrooge’s name throws water on the Cratchit’s celebration. Scrooge starts to “get it”, but I don’t see any significant understanding in Mr. Wilcox’s protagonist (Steve Ballmer).
Second, the real problem is the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come. The ghost for the future presages death, oblivion, and emptiness. When Scrooge understands the fate he will face, he begs for another chance. Microsoft in Mr. Wilcox’s version of this story does not have a second chance. The company has its “now” and decisions are not remediable; for example, who can undo the acquisition of Fast Search & Transfer with its complexity and police troubles. Who can undo the whipping that Nintendo continues to administer to the Xbox? Who can fix the Vista gaffe? Who can address performance issues with certain Microsoft cloud services? Who can address Internet Explorer security?
Third, the miserable Scrooge changes. Scrooge reforms himself, which is deeply satisfying to both Victorian readers and today’s readers who lap up sentimental porridge. Unfortunately, Microsoft Mr. Ballmer (whom I assume is Scrooge in Mr. Wilcox’s article) exists within a bubble. Cultural shifts are glacial, and I don’t think Dickens would feel comfortable with the notion of buying Google to survive. If — and it is a big “if”– Microsoft could go back to 1998. Microsoft would try to squash Google like a tick plucked from a show dog. What was there to buy? Search. Search was a loser in 1998, and Microsoft was riding the portal bandwagon while collecting millions for upgrades to its desktop software.
Here’s one possible way to create a “21st Century Digital Christmas Carol”.
The math club takes over the world. A new application platform replaces windows. Amazon, Apple and Google divide up the spoils and yesterday’s leaders get satisfying jobs as Wal*Mart greeters. What do you think?
Stephen Arnold, December 13, 2008
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