Harvard University: William James Continues Spinning in His Grave

March 15, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

William James, the brother of a novelist which caused my mind to wander just thinking about any one of his 20 novels, loved Harvard University. In a speech at Stanford University, he admitted his untoward affection. If one wanders by William’s grave in Cambridge Cemetery (daylight only, please), one can hear a sound similar to a giant sawmill blade emanating from the a modest tombstone. “What’s that horrific sound?” a by passer might ask. The answer: “William is spinning in his grave. It a bit like a perpetual motion machine now,” one elderly person says. “And it is getting louder.”

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William is spinning in his grave because his beloved Harvard appears to foster making stuff up. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Working on security today or just getting printers to work?

William is amping up his RPMs. Another distinguished Harvard expert, professor, shaper of the minds of young men and women and thems has been caught fabricating data. This is not the overt synthetic data shop at Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Lab and the commercial outfit Snorkel. Nope. This is just a faculty member who, by golly, wanted to be respected it seems.

The Chronicle of Higher Education (the immensely popular online information service consumed by thumb typers and swipers) published “Here’s the Unsealed Report Showing How Harvard Concluded That a Dishonesty Expert Committed Misconduct.” (Registration required because, you know, information about education is sensitive and users must be monitored.) The report allegedly required 1,300 pages. I did not read it. I get the drift: Another esteemed scholar just made stuff up. In my lingo, the individual shaped reality to support her / its vision of self. Reality was not delivering honor, praise, rewards, money, and freedom from teaching horrific undergraduate classes. Why not take the Excel macro to achievement: Invent and massage information. Who is going to know?

The write up says:

the committee wrote that “she does not provide any evidence of [research assistant] error that we find persuasive in explaining the major anomalies and discrepancies.” Over all, the committee determined “by a preponderance of the evidence” that Gino “significantly departed from accepted practices of the relevant research community and committed research misconduct intentionally, knowingly, or recklessly” for five alleged instances of misconduct across the four papers. The committee’s findings were unanimous, except for in one instance. For the 2012 paper about signing a form at the top, Gino was alleged to have falsified or fabricated the results for one study by removing or altering descriptions of the study procedures from drafts of the manuscript submitted for publication, thus misrepresenting the procedures in the final version. Gino acknowledged that there could have been an honest error on her part. One committee member felt that the “burden of proof” was not met while the two other members believed that research misconduct had, in fact, been committed.

Hey, William, let’s hook you up to a power test dynamometer so we can determine exactly how fast you are spinning in your chill, dank abode. Of course, if the data don’t reveal high-RPM spinning, someone at Harvard can be enlisted to touch up the data. Everyone seems to be doing from my vantage point in rural Kentucky.

Is there a way to harness the energy of professors who may cut corners and respected but deceased scholars to do something constructive? Oh, look. There’s a protest group. Let’s go ask them for some ideas. On second thought… let’s not.

Stephen E Arnold, March 15, 2024

AI Limits: The Wind Cannot Hear the Shouting. Sorry.

March 14, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

One of my teachers had a quote on the classroom wall. It was, I think, from a British novelist. Here’s what I recall:

Decide on what you think is right and stick to it.

I never understood the statement. In school, I was there to learn. How could I decide whether what I was reading was correct. Making a decision about what I thought was stupid because I was uninformed. The notion of “stick” is interesting and also a little crazy. My family was going to move to Brazil, and I knew that sticking to what I did in the Midwest in the 1950s would have to change. For one thing, we had electricity. The town to which we were relocating had electricity a few hours each day. Change was necessary. Even as a young sprout, trying to prevent something required more than talk, writing a Letter to the Editor, or getting a petition signed.

I thought about this crazy quote as soon as I read “AI Bioweapons? Scientists Agree to Policies to Reduce Risk of Human Disaster.” The fear mongering note of the write up’s title intrigued me. Artificial intelligence is in what I would call morph mode. What this means is that getting a fix on what is new and impactful in the field of artificial intelligence is difficult. An electrical engineering publication reported that experts are not sure if what is going on is good or bad.

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Shouting into the wind does not work for farmers nor AI scientists. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Busy with security again?

The “AI Bioweapons” essay is leaning into the bad side of the AI parade. The point of the write up is that “over 100 scientists” want to “prevent the creation of AI bioweapons.” The article states:

The agreement, crafted following a 20230 University of Washington summit and published on Friday, doesn’t ban or condemn AI use. Rather, it argues that researchers shouldn’t develop dangerous bioweapons using AI. Such an ask might seem like common sense, but the agreement details guiding principles that could help prevent an accidental DNA disaster.

That sounds good, but is it like the quote about “decide on what you think is right and stick to it”? In a dynamic environment, change is appears to accelerate. Toss in technology and the potential for big wins (either financial, professional, or political), and the likelihood of slowing down the rate of change is reduced.

To add some zip to the AI stew, much of the technology required to do some AI fiddling around is available as open source software or low-cost applications and APIs.

I think it is interesting that 100 scientists want to prevent something. The hitch in the git-along is that other countries have scientists who have access to AI research, tools, software, and systems. These scientists may feel as thought their reminding people that doom is (maybe?) just around the corner or a ruined building in an abandoned town on Route 66.

Here are a few observations about why individuals rally around a cause, which is widely perceived by some of those in the money game as the next big thing:

  1. The shouters perception of their importance makes it an imperative to speak out about danger
  2. Getting a group of important, smart people to climb on a bandwagon makes the organizers perceive themselves as doing something important and demonstrating their “get it done” mindset
  3. Publicity is good. It is very good when a speaking engagement, a grant, or consulting gig produces a little extra fame and money, preferably in a combo.

Net net: The wind does not listen to those shouting into it.

Stephen E Arnold, March 14, 2024

AI Deepfakes: Buckle Up. We Are in for a Wild Drifting Event

March 14, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

AI deepfakes are testing the uncanny valley but technology is catching up to make them as good as the real thing. In case you’ve been living under a rock, deepfakes are images, video, and sound clips generated by AI algorithms to mimic real people and places. For example, someone could create a deepfake video of Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a sumo wrestling match. While the idea of the two presidential candidates duking it out on a sumo mat is absurd, technology is that advanced.

Gizmodo reports the frustrating news that “The AI Deepfakes Problem Is Going To Get Unstoppably Worse”. Bad actors are already using deepfakes to wreak havoc on the world. Federal regulators outlawed robocalls and OpenAI and Google released watermarks on AI-generated images. These aren’t doing anything to curb bad actors.

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Which is real? Which is fake? Thanks, MSFT Copilot, the objects almost appear identical. Close enough like some security features. Close enough means good enough, right?

New laws and technology need to be adopted and developed to prevent this new age of misinformation. There should be an endless amount of warnings on deepfake videos and soundbites, not to mention service providers should employ them too. It is going to take a horrifying event to make AI deepfakes more prevalent:

"Deepfake detection technology also needs to get a lot better and become much more widespread. Currently, deepfake detection is not 100% accurate for anything, according to Copyleaks CEO Alon Yamin. His company has one of the better tools for detecting AI-generated text, but detecting AI speech and video is another challenge altogether. Deepfake detection is lagging generative AI, and it needs to ramp up, fast.”

Wired Magazine missed an opportunity to make clear that the wizards at Google can sell data and advertising, but the sneaker-wearing marvels cannot manage deepfake adult pictures. Heck, Google cannot manage YouTube videos teaching people how to create deepfakes. My goodness, what happens if one uploads ASCII art of a problematic item to Gemini? One of my team tells me that the Sundar & Prabhakar guard rails, don’t work too well in some situations.

Not every deepfake will be as clumsy as the one the “to be maybe” future queen of England finds herself ensnared. One can ask Taylor Swift I assume.

Whitney Grace’s March 14, 2024

Can Your Job Be Orchestrated? Yes? Okay, It Will Be Smartified

March 13, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

My work career over the last 60 years has been filled with luck. I have been in the right place at the right time. I have been in companies which have been acquired, reassigned, and exposed to opportunities which just seemed to appear. Unlike today’s young college graduate, I never thought once about being able to get a “job.” I just bumbled along. In an interview for something called Singularity, the interviewer asked me, “What’s been the key to your success?” I answered, “Luck.” (Please, keep in mind that the interviewer assumed I was a success, but he had no idea that I did not want to be a success. I just wanted to do interesting work.)

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Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Will smart software do your server security? Ho ho ho.

Would I be able to get a job today if I were 20 years old? Believe it or not, I told my son in one of our conversations about smart software: “Probably not.” I thought about this comment when I read today (March 13, 2024) the essay “Devin AI Can Write Complete Source Code.” The main idea of the article is that artificial intelligence, properly trained, appropriately resourced can do what only humans could do in 1966 (when I graduated with a BA degree from a so so university in flyover country). The write up states:

Devin is a Generative AI Coding Assistant developed by Cognition that can write and deploy codes of up to hundreds of lines with just a single prompt.  Although there are some similar tools for the same purpose such as Microsoft’s Copilot, Devin is quite the advancement as it not only generates the source code for software or website but it debugs the end-to-end before the final execution.

Let’s assume the write up is mostly accurate. It does not matter. Smart software will be shaped to deliver what I call orchestrated solutions either today, tomorrow or next month. Jobs already nuked by smartification are customer service reps, boilerplate writing jobs (hello, McKinsey), and translation. Some footloose and fancy free gig workers without AI skills may face dilemmas about whether to pursue begging, YouTubing the van life, or doing some spelunking in the Chemical Abstracts database for molecular recipes in a Walmart restroom.

The trajectory of applied AI is reasonably clear to me. Once “programming” gets swept into the Prada bag of AI, what other professions will be smartified? Once again, the likely path is light by dim but visible Alibaba solar lights for the garden:

  1. Legal tasks which are repetitive even though the cases are different, the work flow is something an average law school graduate can master and learn to loathe
  2. Forensic accounting. Accountants are essentially Ground Hog Day people, because every tax cycle is the same old same old
  3. Routine one-day surgeries. Sorry, dermatologists, cataract shops, and kidney stone crunchers. Robots will do the job and not screw up the DRG codes too much.
  4. Marketers. I know marketing requires creative thinking. Okay, but based on the Super Bowl ads this year, I think some clients will be willing to give smart software a whirl. Too bad about filming a horse galloping along the beach in Half Moon Bay though. Oh, well.

That’s enough of the professionals who will be affected by orchestrated work flows surfing on smartified software.

Why am I bothering to write down what seems painfully obvious to my research team?

I just wanted another reason to say, “I am glad I am old.” What many young college graduates will discover that despite my “luck” over the course of my work career, smartified software will not only kill some types of work. Smart software will remove the surprise  in a serendipitous life journey.

To reiterate my point: I am glad I am old and understand efficiency, smartification, and the value of having been lucky.

Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2024

AI Bubble Gum Cards

March 13, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

A publication for electrical engineers has created a new mechanism for making AI into a collectible. Navigate to “The AI apocalypse: A Scorecard.” Scroll down to the part of the post which looks like the gems from the 1050s:

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The idea is to pick 22 experts and gather their big ideas about AI’s potential to destroy humanity. Here’s one example of an IEEE bubble gum card:

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© by the estimable IEEE.

The information on the cards is eclectic. It is clear that some people think smart software will kill me and you. Others are not worried.

My thought is that IEEE should expand upon this concept; for example, here are some bubble gum card ideas:

  • Do the NFT play? These might be easier to sell than IEEE memberships and subscriptions to the magazine
  • Offer actual, fungible packs of trading cards with throw-back bubble gum
  • Create an AI movie about AI experts with opposing ideas doing battle in a video game type world. Zap. You lose, you doubter.

But the old-fashioned approach to selling trading cards to grade school kids won’t work. First, there are very few corner stores near schools in many cities. Two, a special interest group will agitate to block the sale of cards about AI because the inclusion of chewing gum will damage children’s teeth. And, three, kids today want TikToks, at least until the service is banned from a fast-acting group of elected officials.

I think the IEEE will go in a different direction; for example, micro USBs with AI images and source code on them. Or, the IEEE should just advance to the 21st-century and start producing short-form AI videos.

The IEEE does have an opportunity. AI collectibles.

Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2024

Want Clicks: Do Sad, Really, Really Sorrowful

March 13, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

The US is a hotbed of negative news. It’s what drives the media and perpetuates the culture of fear that (arguably) has plagued the country since colonial times. US citizens and now the rest of the world are so addicted to bad news that a research team got the brilliant idea to study what words people click. Nieman Lab wrote about the study in, “Negative Words In News Headlines Generate More Clicks-But Sad Words Are More Effective Than Angry Or Scary Ones.”

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Thanks, MSFT Copilot. One of Redmond’s security professionals I surmise?

Negative words are prevalent in headlines because they sell clicks. The Nature Human Behavior(u)r journal published a study called “Negativity Drives Online News Consumption.” The study analyzed the effect of negative and emotional words on news consumption and the research team discovered that negativity increased clickability. These findings also confirm the well-documented behavior of humans seeking negativity in all information-seeking.

It coincides with humanity’s instinct to be vigilant of any danger and avoid it. While humans instinctually gravitate towards negative headlines, certain negative words are more popular than others. Humans apparently are driven to click on sad-related synonyms, avoid anything resembling joy or fear, and angry words don’t have any effect. It all goes back to survival:

“And if we are to believe “Bad is stronger than good” derives from evolutionary psychology — that it arose as a useful heuristic to detect threats in our environment — why would fear-related words reduce likelihood to click? (The authors hypothesize that fear and anger might be more important in generating sharing behavior — which is public-facing — than clicks, which are private.)

In any event, this study puts some hard numbers to what, in most newsrooms, has been more of an editorial hunch: Readers are more drawn to negativity than to positivity. But thankfully, the effect size is small — and I’d wager that it’d be even smaller for any outlet that decided to lean too far in one direction or the other.”

It could also be a strict diet of danger-filled media too.

Whitney Grace, March 13, 2024

Thomson Reuters Is Going to Do AI: Run Faster

March 11, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Thomson Reuters, a mostly low profile outfit, is going to do AI. Why’s this interesting to law schools, lawyers, accountants, special librarians, libraries, and others who “pay” for “real” information? There are three reasons:

  1. Money
  2. Markets
  3. Mania.

Thomson Reuters has been a tech talker for decades. The company created skunk works. It hired quirky MIT wizards. I bought businesses with information technology. But underneath the professional publishing clear coat, the firm is the creation of Lord Thomson of Fleet. The firm has a track record of being able to turn a profit on its $7 billion in revenues. But the future, if news reports are accurate, is artificial intelligence or smart software.

image

The young publishing executive says, “I have go to get ahead of this AI bus before it runs over me.” Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Working on security today?

But wait! What makes Thomson Reuters different from the New York Times or (heaven forbid the question) Rupert Murdoch’s confections? The answer is in my opinion: Thomson Reuters does the trust thing and is a professional publisher. I don’t want to explain that in the world of Lord Thomson of Fleet that publishing is publishing. Nope. Not going there. Thomson Reuters is a custom made billiard cue, not one of those bar pool cheapos.

As appropriate to today’s Thomson Reuters, the news appeared in Thomson’s own news releases first; for example, “Thomson Reuters Profit Beats Estimates Amid AI Push.” Yep, AI drives profits. That’s the “m” in money. Plus, Thomson late last year this article found its way to the law firm market (yep, that’s the second “m”): “Morgan Lewis and Thomson Reuters Enter into Partnership to Put Law Firms’ Needs at the Heart of AI Development.

Now the third “m” or mania. Here’s a representative story, “Thomson Reuters to Invest US$8 billion in a Substantial AI-Focused Spending Initiative.” You can also check out the Financial Times’s report at this link.

Thomson Reuters is a $7 billion corporation. If the $8 billion number is on the money, the venerable news outfit is going to spend the equivalent on one year’s revenue acquiring and investing in smart software. In terms of professional publishing, this chunk of change is roughly the equivalent of Sam AI-Man’s need for trillions of dollars for his smart software business.

Several thoughts struck me as I was reading about the $8 billion investment in smart software:

  1. In terms of publishing or more narrowly professional publishing, $8 billion will take some time to spend. But time is not on the side of publishing decision making processes. When the check is written for an AI investment, there may be some who ask, “Is this the correct investment? After all, aren’t we professional publishers serving lawyers, accountants, and researchers?”
  2. The US legal processes are interesting. But the minor challenge of Crown copyright adds a bit of spice to certain investments. The UK government itself is reluctant to push into some AI areas due to concerns that certain information may not be available unless the red tape about copyright has been trimmed, rolled, and put on the shelf. Without being disrespectful, Thomson Reuters could find that some of the $8 billion headed into its clients pockets as legal challenges make their way through courts in Britain, Canada, and the US and probably some frisky EU states.
  3. The game for AI seems to be breaking into two what a former Greek minister calls the techno feudal set up. On one hand, there are giant technology centric companies (of which Thomson Reuters is not one of the club members). These are Google- and Microsoft-scale outfits with infrastructure, data, customers, and multiple business models. On the other hand, there are the Product Watch outfits which are using open source and APIs to create “new” and “important” AI businesses, applications, and solutions. In short, there are some barons and a whole grab-bag of lesser folk. Is Thomson Reuters going to be able to run with the barons. Remember, please, the barons are riding stallions. Thomson Reuter-type firms either walk or ride donkeys.

Net net: If Thomson Reuters spends $8 billion on smart software, how many lawyers, accountants, and researchers will be put out of work? The risks are not just bad AI investments. The threat maybe to gut the billing power of the paying customers for Thomson Reuters’ content. This will be entertaining to watch.

PS. The third “m”? It is mania, AI mania.

Stephen E Arnold, March 11, 2024

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In Tech We Mistrust

March 11, 2024

While tech firms were dumping billions into AI, they may have overlooked one key component: consumer faith. The Hill reports, “Trust in AI Companies Drops to 35 Percent in New Study.” We note that 35% figure is for the US only, while the global drop was a mere 8%. Still, that is the wrong direction for anyone with a stake in the market. So what is happening? Writer Filip Timotija tells us:

So it is not just AI we mistrust, it is tech companies as a whole. That tracks. The study polled 32,000 people across 28 countries. Timotija reminds us regulators in the US and abroad are scrambling to catch up. Will fear of consumer rejection do what neither lagging lawmakers nor common decency can? The write-up notes:

“Westcott argued the findings should be a ‘wake up call’ for AI companies to ‘build back credibility through ethical innovation, genuine community engagement and partnerships that place people and their concerns at the heart of AI developments.’ As for the impacts on the future for the industry as a whole, ‘societal acceptance of the technology is now at a crossroads,’ he said, adding that trust in AI and the companies producing it should be seen ‘not just as a challenge, but an opportunity.’” “Multiple factors contributed to the decline in trust toward the companies polled in the data, according to Justin Westcott, Edelman’s chair of global technology. ‘Key among these are fears related to privacy invasion, the potential for AI to devalue human contributions, and apprehensions about unregulated technological leaps outpacing ethical considerations,’ Westcott said, adding ‘the data points to a perceived lack of transparency and accountability in how AI companies operate and engage with societal impacts.’ Technology as a whole is losing its lead in trust among sectors, Edelman said, highlighting the key findings from the study. ‘Eight years ago, technology was the leading industry in trust in 90 percent of the countries we study,’ researchers wrote, referring to the 28 countries. ‘Now it is most trusted only in half.’”

Yes, an opportunity. All AI companies must do is emphasize ethics, transparency, and societal benefits over profits. Surely big tech firms will get right on that.

Cynthia Murrell, March 11, 2024

ACM: Good Defense or a Business Play?

March 8, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Professional publishers want to use the trappings of peer review, standards, tradition, and quasi academic hoo-hah to add value to their products; others want a quasi-monopoly. Think public legal filings and stuff in high school chemistry book. The customers of professional publishers are typically not the folks at the pizza joint on River Road in Prospect, Kentucky. The business of professional publishing in an interesting one, but in the wild and crazy world of collapsing next-gen publishing, professional publishing is often ignored. A publisher conference aimed at professional publishers is quite different from the Jazz Age South by Southwest shindig.

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Yep, free. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. How’s that security today?

But professional publishers have been in the news. Examples include the dust up about academics making up data. The big time president of the much-honored Stanford University took intellectual short cuts and quit late last year. Then there was the some nasty issue about data and bias at the esteemed Harvard University. Plus, a number of bookish types have guess-timated that a hefty percentage of research studies contain made-up data. Hey, you gotta publish to get tenure or get a grant, right?

But there is an intruder in the basement of the professional publishing club. The intruder positions itself in the space between the making up of some data and the professional publishing process. That intruder is ArXiv, an open-access repository of electronic preprints and postprints (known as e-prints) approved for posting after moderation, according to Wikipedia. (Wikipedia is the cancer which killed the old-school encyclopedias.) Plus, there are services which offer access to professional content without paying for the right to host the information. I won’t name these services because I have no desire to have legal eagles circle about my semi-functioning head.

Why do I present this grade-school level history? I read “CACM Is Now Open Access.” Let’s let the Association of Computing Machinery explain its action:

For almost 65 years, the contents of CACM have been exclusively accessible to ACM members and individuals affiliated with institutions that subscribe to either CACM or the ACM Digital Library. In 2020, ACM announced its intention to transition to a fully Open Access publisher within a roughly five-year timeframe (January 2026) under a financially sustainable model. The transition is going well: By the end of 2023, approximately 40% of the ~26,000 articles ACM publishes annually were being published Open Access utilizing the ACM Open model. As ACM has progressed toward this goal, it has increasingly opened large parts of the ACM Digital Library, including more than 100,000 articles published between 1951–2000. It is ACM’s plan to open its entire archive of over 600,000 articles when the transition to full Open Access is complete.

The decision was not an easy one. Money issues rarely are.

I want to step back and look at this interesting change from a different point of view:

  1. Getting a degree today is less of a must have than when I was a wee dinobaby. My parents told me I was going to college. Period. I learned how much effort was required to get my hands on academic journals. I was a master of knowing that Carnegie-Mellon had new but limited bound volumes of certain professional publications. I knew what journals were at the University of Pittsburgh. I used these resources when the Duquesne Library was overrun with the faithful. Now “researchers” can zip online and whip up astonishing results. Google-type researchers prefer the phrase “quantumly supreme results.” This social change is one factor influencing the ACM.
  2. Stabilizing revenue streams means pulling off a magic trick. Sexy conferences and special events complement professional association membership fees. Reducing costs means knocking off the now, very very expensive printing, storing, and shipping of physical journals. The ACM seems to have figured out how to keep the lights on and the computing machine types spending.
  3. ACM members can use ACM content the way they do a pirate library’s or the feel good ArXiv outfit. The move helps neutralize discontent among the membership, and it is good PR.

These points raise a question; to wit: In today’s world how relevant will a professional association and its professional publications be going foreword. The ACM states:

By opening CACM to the world, ACM hopes to increase engagement with the broader computer science community and encourage non-members to discover its rich resources and the benefits of joining the largest professional computer science organization. This move will also benefit CACM authors by expanding their readership to a larger and more diverse audience. Of course, the community’s continued support of ACM through membership and the ACM Open model is essential to keeping ACM and CACM strong, so it is critical that current members continue their membership and authors encourage their institutions to join the ACM Open model to keep this effort sustainable.

Yep, surviving in a world of faux expertise.

Stephen E Arnold, March 8, 2024

Engineering Trust: Will Weaponized Data Patch the Social Fabric?

March 7, 2024

green-dino_thumb_thumb_thumbThis essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Trust is a popular word. Google wants me to trust the company. Yeah, I will jump right on that. Politicians want me to trust their attestations that citizen interest are important. I worked in Washington, DC, for too long. Nope, I just have too much first-hand exposure to the way “things work.” What about my bank? It wants me to trust it. But isn’t the institution the subject of a a couple of government investigations? Oh, not important. And what about the images I see when I walk gingerly between the guard rails. I trust them right? Ho ho ho.

In our post-Covid, pre-US national election, the word “trust” is carrying quite a bit of freight. Whom to I trust? Not too many people. What about good old Socrates who was an Athenian when Greece was not yet a collection of ferocious football teams and sun seekers. As you may recall, he trusted fellow residents of Athens. He end up dead from either a lousy snack bar meal and beverage, or his friends did him in.

One of his alleged precepts in his pre-artificial intelligence worlds was:

“We cannot live better than in seeking to become better.” — Socrates

Got it, Soc.

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Thanks MSFT Copilot and provider of PC “moments.” Good enough.

I read “Exclusive: Public Trust in AI Is Sinking across the Board.” Then I thought about Socrates being convicted for corruption of youth. See. Education does not bring unlimited benefits. Apparently Socrates asked annoying questions which open him to charges of impiety. (Side note: Hey, Socrates, go with the flow. Just pray to the carved mythical beast, okay?)

A loss of public trust? Who knew? I thought it was common courtesy, a desire to discuss and compromise, not whip out a weapon and shoot, bludgeon, or stab someone to death. In the case of Haiti, a twist is that a victim is bound and then barbequed in a steel drum. Cute and to me a variation of stacking seven tires in a pile dousing them with gasoline, inserting a person, and igniting the combo. I noted a variation in the Ukraine. Elderly women make cookies laced with poison and provide them to special operation fighters. Subtle and effective due to troop attrition I hear. Should I trust US Girl Scout cookies? No thanks.

What’s interesting about the write up is that it provides statistics to back up this brilliant and innovative insight about modern life is its focus on artificial intelligence. Let me pluck several examples from the dot point filled write up:

  1. “Globally, trust in AI companies has dropped to 53%, down from 61% five years ago.”
  2. “Trust in AI is low across political lines. Democrats trust in AI companies is 38%, independents are at 25% and Republicans at 24%.”
  3. “Eight years ago, technology was the leading industry in trust in 90% of the countries Edelman studies. Today, it is the most trusted in only half of countries.”

AI is trendy; crunchy click bait is highly desirable even for an estimable survivor of Silicon Valley style news reporting.

Let me offer several observations which may either be troubling or typical outputs from a dinobaby working in an underground computer facility:

  1. Close knit groups are more likely to have some concept of trust. The exception, of course, is the behavior of the Hatfields and McCoys
  2. Outsiders are viewed with suspicion. Often for now reason, a newcomer becomes the default bad entity
  3. In my lifetime, I have watched institutions take actions which erode trust on a consistent basis.

Net net: Old news. AI is not new. Hyperbole and click obsession are factors which illustrate the erosion of social cohesion. Get used to it.

Stephen E Arnold, March 7, 2024

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