What If Google Books Goes Away?
September 21, 2009
I had a talk with one of my partners this morning. The article in TechRadar “Google Books Smacked Down by US Government” was the trigger. This Web log post captures the consequences portion of our discussion. I am not sure Google, authors, or any other pundit embroiled in the dust up over Google Books will agree with these points. That’s okay. I am capturing highlights for myself. If you have forgotten this function of this Beyond Search Web log, quit reading or look at the editorial policy for this marketing / diary publication.
Let’s jump into the discussion in media res. The battle is joined and at this time, Google is on the defensive. Keep in mind that Google has been plugging away at this Google Book “project” since 2000 or 2001 when it made a key hire from Caere (now folded into Nuance) to add a turbo charge to the Books project.
Who is David? Who is Goliath?
With nine years of effort under its belt, Google will get a broken snout if the Google Books project stops. Now, let’s assume that the courts stop Google. What might happen?
First, Google could just keep on scanning. Google lawyers will do lawyer-type things. The wheels of justice will grind forward. With enough money and lawyers, Google can buy time. Let’s face it. Publishers could run out of enthusiasm or cash. If the Google keeps on scanning, discourse will deteriorate, but the acquisition of data for the Google knowledge base and for Google repurposing keeps on keeping on.
Second, Google might agree. Shut up shop and go directly to authors with an offer to buy rights to their work. I have four or five publishers right now. I would toss them overboard for a chance to publish my next monograph on the Google system, let Google monetize it any way it sees fit, and give me a percentage of the revenue. Heck, if I get a couple of hundred a month from the Google I am ahead of the game. Note this: none of my publishers are selling very many expensive studies right now. The for fee columns I write produce a pittance as well. One publisher cut my pay by 30 percent as part of a shift to a four day week and a trimmed publishing schedule. Heck, I love my publishers, but I love an outfit that pays money more. I think quite a few authors would find publishing on the Google Press most interesting. If that happens, the Google Books project has a gap, but going forward, Google has the info and the publishers and non participating authors have a different type of competitive problem.
Third, Google cuts a new deal, adjusts the terms, and keeps on scanning books. Google’s management throws enough bird feed to the flock. Google is secure in its knowledge that the future belongs to a trans-national digital information platform stuffed with digital information of various types. No publisher or group of publishers has a comparable platform. Microsoft and Yahoo were in the book game and bailed out. Perhaps their platforms can at some point in the future match Google’s. But my hunch is that the critics of Google’s book project are not looking at the value of the information to Google’s knowledge base, Google’s repurposing technologies, and Google’s next generation dataspace applications. Because these are dark corners, the bright light of protest is illuminating the dust and mice only.
One theme runs through these three possibilities. Google gets information. In this game, the publishers have lost but have not recognized it. Without a better idea and without an alternative to the irreversible erosion of libraries, Google is not the miserable little worm that so many want the company to be. Just my opinion.
Stephen Arnold, September 21, 2009
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