Social Networks, Testosterone, and Facebook
May 13, 2010
In my Information Today column which will run in the next hard copy issue, I talk about the advantage social networks have in identifying sites members perceive as useful. Examples are Delicious.com (owned by Yahoo) and StumbleUpon.com (once eBay and now back in private hands).
The idea is based in economics. Indexing the entire Web and then keeping up with changes is very expensive. With most queries answered by indexing a subset of the total Web universe, only a handful of organizations can tackle this problem. If I put on my gloom hat, the number of companies indexing as many Web pages as possible is Google. If I put on my happy hat, I can name a couple of other outfits. One implication is that Google may find itself spending lots of money to index content and its search traffic starts to go to Facebook. Yikes. Crisis time in Mountain View?
It costs a lot when many identify important sites and the lone person or company has to figure everything out for himself or herself. Image source: http://lensaunders.com/habit/img/peerpressuresmall.jpg
The idea is that when members recommend a Web site as useful, the company getting this Web site url can index that site’s content. Over time, a body of indexed content becomes useful. I routinely run specialized queries on Delicious.com and StumbleUpon.com, among others. I don’t run these queries on Google because the results list require too much work to process. One nagging problem is Google’s failure to make it possible to sort results by time. I can get a better “time sense” from other systems.
When I read “The Big Game, Zuckerberg and Overplaying your Hand”, I interpreted these observations in the context of the information cost advantage. The write up makes the point via some interesting rhetorical touches that Facebook is off the reservation. The idea is that Facebook’s managers are seizing opportunities and creating some real problems for themselves and other companies. The round up of urls in the article is worth reviewing, and I will leave that work to you.
First, it is clear that social networks are traffic magnets because users see benefits. In fact, despite Facebook’s actions and the backlash about privacy, the Facebook system keeps on chugging along. In a sense, Facebook is operating like the captain of an ice breaker in the arctic. Rev the engines and blast forward. Hit a penguin? Well, that’s what happens when a big ship meets a penguin. If – note, the “if” – the Facebook user community continues to grow, the behavior of the firm’s management will be encouraged. This means more ice breaker actions. In a sense, this is how Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo either operated or operated in their youth. The motto is, “It is better to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission.”
Second, there is an element of testosterone operating. The critics of Facebook want the company to behave in a different manner. The less Facebook responds the more testosterone floods into the critics. As a result, the idea of a “Facebook boycott” is one manifestation of this reaction. In the absence of meaningful Federal regulation of financial institutions and oil drilling, I am forced to conclude that Facebook will keep on doing what it deems best for itself. Self interest, not the comments of competitors or critics, will make much different. Remember the penguin and the ice breaker?
Third, there is the matter of Facebook itself. The system has been around for years and it is now gaining global traction. Other firms have tried to become Facebooks, but so far, Facebook seems to have the right blend of chemicals. Orkut begot Buzz which begets a new head of social at Google. Interesting, but Facebook keeps on going and Google is essentially a non starter in the Facebook space. Bebo? It’s a goner. I would suggest that Ning has been nicked by the prow of the Facebook ice breaker. Ning has bounced off the hull and is trying to stabilize, which is definitely better than what happened to the mythical penguin.
To sum up, Facebook has some real potential to disrupt Web search with its social methods. The company can index Web sites its 400 million members say are important. Within Facebook, it might be easier to ask friends and then run a query across Web sites Facebook members “like”. Is this objective search? Not in a million years. But that’s not the point. The impact is that search traffic bleeds from some vendors and flows to Facebook. That cost advantage may be trivial right now, but going forward it may become a larger factor. That’s the point in my Information Today column. Also, the testosterone factor is important. Facebook is what Google was. I know this makes me giggle, but your reaction may be different. Instead of being Googled, now a company can be Facebooked. New verb.
Facebook may crash and burn, but the chatter about the company reminds me of the comments that Google evoked when people realized that Google was pushing boundaries that no one expected the Google to approach. Now there is another boundary pusher and this one has 400 million users, a lax regulatory environment, and competitors who cannot respond effectively. Fun to watch and, of course, to read articles that end with this type of punch line: “Stop Facebook. Save the world!”
The bumper sticker and T shirt will be available shortly I presume.
Stephen E Arnold, May 13, 2010
Freebie.
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IAM AMJAD KHAN
I created that picture above of the human cutouts, and you did not ask permission to use it. It was made for one particular web site. Please remove it at once.
If the image is not removed, I will have to report this site. It does not matter you gave credit to a particular site. Remove the image at once.