Social Science: Like Astrology and Phrenology Perhaps?
September 15, 2020
I do not understand sociology. In 1962, I ended up in a class taught by an esteemed eccentric named Bruce Cameron, Ph.D. I had heard about his interest in short wave and drove past his home to observe the bed springs hanging on the front of his house. The idea, as I recall, was to improve radio reception. Those in the engineering department at the lousy university I attended shared the brilliant professor’s fascination with commercial bed technology at lunch. Even I as a clueless freshman (or is it now freshperson?) knew about the concept of buying an antenna from our local electronics shop.
In the remarkable Dr. Cameron’s Sociology 101 class, he posed the question, “Why do Eskimos wear mittens?” Today, the question would have to reference indigenous circumpolar people or another appropriate term. But in 1962, Eskimos was the go-to word.
I pointed out that I had seen in the Smithsonian Museum an exhibit of Eskimo hand wear and that there were examples of mittens with a finger component (trigger mits or nord gauntlets), thus combining the warmth of a mitten with the needed dexterity to remove a harpoon from a baby seal.
He ignored my comment. The question turned up on our first examination, and I recycled my alleged learning from the Smithsonian information card for the exhibit.
I received zero credit for my answer. Bummer. I think that was the point at which I dismissed “sociology” and placed it and the good professor in the same pigeon hole I used for astrology and phrenology.
After reading “What’s Wrong with Social Science and How to Fix It: Reflections After Reading 2578 Papers,” I reaffirmed my skepticism of sociology and its allied fields:
But actually diving into the sea of trash that is social science gives you a more tangible perspective, a more visceral revulsion, and perhaps even a sense of Lovecraftian awe at the sheer magnitude of it all: a vast landfill—a great agglomeration of garbage extending as far as the eye can see, effluvious waves crashing and throwing up a foul foam of p=0.049 papers.
The write up contains some interesting data. In reference to a citation graph, the paper points out why references to crappy research persist:
As in all affairs of man, it once again comes down to Hanlon’s Razor. Either:
- Malice: they know which results are likely false but cite them anyway.
- or, Stupidity: they can’t tell which papers will replicate even though it’s quite easy.
There is another reason: Clubs of so-called experts informally coordinate or simply do the “I will scratch your back if you scratch mine.”
What quasi-sociological field is doing its best to less corrupt? Surprisingly, it is economics. Education seems to have some semblance of ethical behavior, at least based on this sample of papers. But maybe the sample is skewed.
The paper concludes with a list of suggestions. Useful, but I think the present pattern of lousy work is going to persist and increase.
Hang those bed springs on the side of the house. Works for “good enough” solutions.
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 2020
VPN Usage: Just Slightly Unbelievable Data
September 15, 2020
How about virtual private networks? What about those free VPNs? How effective are specialized VPNs which bond two or more Internet connections?
Interesting questions.
“VPN Usage Now Makes Up Almost All Enterprise Traffic” does not answer these questions, but the write up reports about a study which offers some interesting and, to DarkCyber, slightly unbelievable data; for example:
- VPN usage has gone from 10 or 15% of enterprise traffic to maybe 95%
- Bad actor attacks on VPNs have “increased dramatically,” although no data are offered
- Three-quarters of desktop devices (77%) have adequate antivirus or cybersecurity software installed, falling some way short of total protection
- 17% of laptops supplied by UK employers also lacked security software.
There is nothing like survey data without information about who, how, and data analysis methods.
Microsoft wants to make its “defender” system a service one cannot turn off or uninstall. If this occurs, how will the research data be affected?
Questions? Just more questions?
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 020
US and Cyber Proactivity
September 15, 2020
Kinetic assaults on the United States still pose a great risk, but even greater threats exist in digital spaces. Hacking, malware, viruses, and more could potentially damage the American way of life more than a physical attack. The Star Tribune reports that, “Military’s Top Cyber Official Defends More Aggressive Stance” on attacks taking place in the Internet. General Paul Nakasone defends the more aggressive stance, because the military has become more proactive in order to defeat sophisticated threats.
Nakasone stated that instead of having a “reactive, defensive posture” that military is meeting foreign adversaries online. Instead of waiting to be attacked, the military investigates potential threats and takes necessary action to stop them. Two examples of taking offensive action are:
“As an example, Nakasone cited a mission from last October in which Cyber Command dispatched an elite team of experts to Montenegro to join forces with the tiny Balkan state, which was targeted by Russia-linked hackers. The “hunt forward” mission not only helped defend an ally but was also an opportunity for the U.S. to improve its own cyber defenses before the 2020 election, Nakasone wrote. Cyber Command and NSA worked before the 2018 U.S. midterm election to protect against Russian meddling, he said, creating a task force that shared information about potential compromises and other threats, including how to counter trolls on social media.”
Arguably this prevented interferences in the US midterm elections and the plans are to prevent more possible threats for the 2020 presidential election.
Cyber Command was established in 2010 to defend against cyber attacks on the Department of Defense’s classified and unclassified networks. Cyber Command’s offensive strategy has changed from its original purpose to “proactively hunt for adversary malware on our own networks rather than simply waiting for an intrusion to be identified.” Cyber Command also shares information on malware as its discovered so its less of a threat.
Inaction often leads to attacks that could be avoided. If Cyber Command does nothing, then when an attack occurs people are upset. However, if Cyber Command is on the offensive it is seen as unnecessary aggression by certain parties. It is a catch-22, but also not.
Whitney Grace, September 15, 2020
Bowling Alone Furniture Fashion Trends
September 15, 2020
Two items plopped into the DarkCyber news watch system. The first is “This $25,000 Meditation Pod That Looks Like an Egg Is Designed [to] Be Installed in Offices and Airports. Here’s How It Works”. DarkCyber added the missing part of the infinitive, and we think we understand an isolation chamber. The write up, however, explains:
OpenSeed says it has a solution, in the form of 1,000-lb meditation pods that look like something that fell off a UFO. According to the company, they believe “that the human race will access higher states of awareness, not through external technological developments, but by taking the journey within.” That’s where Meditation Pods come in.
How much for one of these pods?
Just $25,000.
Color, audio, and seating options?
Check, check, and check.
The second item is “The Startup That Made Office Phone Booths for Google, Uber, and NASA Is Selling Modular Work Pods.” Surprise. These are squarish versions of the meditation egg. We learn:
The modular pods are like pop-up meeting rooms with extra ventilation, and Room is also offering a new analysis tool to give clients data on how office space is used, and how employees can safely return. Room’s proposal is just one idea popping up about how to work during a pandemic. Architect and designer Mohamed Radwan created a system of airtight office pods with air purifiers, and many other designers have created tiny backyard offices, or even ways to transform the home into an office, tastefully.
Interesting. Is this a trend?
DarkCyber remembers a wonderful night in a Japanese capsule hotel in 1999 or 2000. One of the team members said:
These look like three coffins bolted together.
Another noted:
Tiny houses designed by a D student in Architecture 101.
Either way, one can go from bowling alone to thinking or working alone. No information is available about injecting the scent of a bowling alley into the structures.
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 2020
Nvidia Arm: An Artificial Intelligence Angle. Oh, Maybe a Monopoly Play Too?
September 14, 2020
As the claims, rumors, and outrage about Nvidia’s alleged acquisition of ARM swirl, DarkCyber noted an interesting story in ExtremeTech. “Nvidia Buys ARM for $40 Billion, Plans New AI Research Center” states:
According to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang,
We are joining arms with Arm to create the leading computing company for the age of AI. AI is the most powerful technology force of our time. Learning from data, AI supercomputers can write software no human can. Amazingly, AI software can perceive its environment, infer the best plan, and act intelligently. This new form of software will expand computing to every corner of the globe. Someday, trillions of computers running AI will create a new internet — the internet-of-things — thousands of times bigger than today’s internet-of-people. In the same letter, Jensen notes that Nvidia will build a “world-class” AI center in Cambridge, where a state-of-the-art ARM-based supercomputer will conduct research. [Emphasis added by DarkCyber]
Assume the deal goes through. Assume Nvidia creates a new AI research center. Are there some implications of this type of move? Who knows, but it is often helpful to identify some potential downstream consequences:
- Nvidia becomes the de facto supplier of silicon for supercomputers
- Amazon, already keen on Nvidia, ramps up its efforts to boost Sagemaker and allied technologies in the AWS environment
- Google and Microsoft have to do some thinking about their approach to next-generation silicon
- IBM may be inspired to do more than issue Intel style news releases about creating stable silicon using fabrication techniques outside their competencies at this time
- Chinese and China-allied semiconductor companies will have to shift into a higher gear and amp up their marketing
Will the deal, if it takes place, create the semiconductor equivalent of a Facebook monopoly?
That’s a possibility. Those US regulators are on the job, ever vigilant, just like those on Wall Street.
Stephen E Arnold, September 17, 2020
Digital Currency Now Becoming Visible
September 14, 2020
Did you think your Bitcoin was beyond the long arm of tax law? Sorry to break it to you, but it is not. Not only does the IRS now ask about cryptocurrency transactions on the front page of form 1040, the agency has acquired a list of digital currency users, we learn from the article, “IRS Sends Fresh Round of Tax Warning Letters to Cryptocurrency Owners” at Bitcoin.com News. Cointracker’s Chandan Lodha suspects the IRS built this mailing list from a subpoena of Coinbase data, though the agency has subpoenaed several other exchanges and is using blockchain analytics software. So much for secret transactions. Writer Kevin Helms reports:
“Several tax service providers revealed on Tuesday that their clients have received a warning letter from the IRS similar to those the agency sent to about 10,000 crypto owners last year. There are three types of letters. The first type, Letter 6173, specifies a date by which the taxpayer must respond or their tax account will be examined by the agency. The other two, Letter 6174 and 6174-A, only remind taxpayers of their tax obligations. The Taxpayer Advocate Service, an independent organization within the IRS, has said that the IRS letters violate taxpayers’ rights. … The IRS letter proceeds to advise cryptocurrency owners that if they did not accurately report the cryptocurrency transactions on the federal income tax return, they should ‘file amended returns or delinquent returns.’ The agency warned: ‘If you do not accurately report your virtual currency transactions, you may be subject to future civil and criminal enforcement activity.’”
The assertion that these letters violate taxpayers’ rights rests on the right to privacy described in the IRS’ own Taxpayer Bill of Rights (PDF). We do not suggest anyone count on that claim to keep them out of trouble, however. The agency has helpfully published guidelines for those who must report cryptocurrency transactions, as discussed in this article.
Cynthia Murrell, September 14, 2020
Happy Saturday: Malicious PayPal Sites
September 14, 2020
DarkCyber spotted “10 Malicious PayPal Sites.” The write up consists of a list of sites, which the wise Web surfer may wish to avoid. Each of the sites contains the string “paypal” in its name. The domains are interesting as well; for example, “verifiedly” and “watch4dollar.” What’s interesting is that existing cyber security methods are not flagging or filtering these sites. Even more disturbing is the idea that a person would click on a site named “paypalsupport.” If anyone has tried to obtain support from PayPal, the idea that a legitimate PayPal site would offer useful information to a user with a question is a tip off that something is not in line with normal PayPal behaviors.
Stephen E Arnold, September 14, 2020
Amazon and Its Next Leader According to Bezos Owned AMZ Paper
September 14, 2020
Modern “real news.” Definitely interesting most of the time. I read “Bezos’s Likely Amazon Successor Is an Executive Made in Bezos’s Image.” (I know the story is objective because the page displayed “Support journalism you can trust when it matters most.” Thomson Reuters uses the trust thing too. Okay, trust. The write up is notable because one syllable words ending in “s” require an apostrophe s when used in a possessive structure; for example, Bezos’s newspaper or Bezos’s billions.)
The main point is that the head of Amazon Web Services could take over when Mr. Bezos drives the Bezos bulldozer (no apostrophe because the noun is used as an adjective) into / over another challenge.
I learned:
the company still values high-risk, high-reward bets and is less defined by online shopping than some might think.
Plus, there’s a rare pothole in the Amazon autobahn:
Even in the cloud business, Amazon has had to confront a newly vigorous rival, Microsoft, which has won contracts — including a massive one from the Defense Department — that Amazon might have handily taken just a few years ago.
Are there key points about the possible Bezos replacement? Perhaps:
- Harvard
- Ideas, not operations
- Onliney, not retaily.
This statement seems important:
While retail drives Amazon’s revenue, the cloud business fuels Amazon’s bottom line. AWS generated $3.4 billion in net income in the most recent quarter, about 64 percent of Amazon’s total profit, even though the business accounted for just 12 percent of Amazon’s sales.
Several questions:
- Why the profile now?
- Why emphasize the anti-administration angle?
- What’s the plan for AWS?
I know that the Bezos newspaper is objective. And trust. Yep, the trust thing.
Stephen E Arnold, September 14, 2020
Expertise Required: Interesting Assertion
September 14, 2020
One of the DarkCyber research team spotted “Lack of Expertise Is the Biggest Barrier for Implementing IoT Solutions.” The surprising assertion comes from Claris, an outfit owned by Apple. Claris (once known as FileMaker Inc.). Clear? Clear as Claris.
The information in the write up presents an interesting assertion about the Internet of Things. An IoT device is a mobile phone or a gizmo that connects to the Internet; for example, an Anduril surveillance drone.
The interesting parts are the actual factual statements; for example:
- 20 percent of “SMB leaders worry about security and privacy when implementing IoT. Furthermore, they don’t clearly see the return on investment.”
- 67 percent believe IoT could bring them a competitive advantage and are saying their competitors are “doing more” with IoT at the time.
- “SMB leaders mentioned improved efficiency, productivity and speed, while about a third see gathering business intelligence as the main driver towards IoT adoption.”
- About 33 percent say “it’s likely their SMB will launch an IoT initiative within the next three years, while almost half added that their company was lagging behind the competition.”
- 24 percent) stated their project already yielded ROI, while 38 percent expect it to happen within a year.
Do we know the details of the study, the sample size, the methodology used to select those surveyed, or the statistical validity of the data? Of course not. That is what makes the fact so interesting. That and the need for “expertise.” Perhaps the data were tallied in Filemaker?
Stephen E Arnold, September 14, 2020
The JEDI Gang: Updates Are Great
September 13, 2020
We have an assortment of Mac, Linux, and Windows 10 computers. The Windows updates are, of course, perfect. If you have experienced an uncomfortable moment when a Windows 10 computer is updating, you will find “Windows: The Dread of Updates” interesting. The main point of the write up is:
I got Windows 10 for free and I still feel like I’ve been horribly ripped off. My time is worth more than this.
The explanation for update problems varies. The real reason is that Windows has become so convoluted, no one knows why the “system” fails.
My most recent thrill involved a pop up that demanded I upgrade a codec via the Windows Store. What? I thought there was an update process that did not involve the Windows Store. Wrong. I followed the link, learned I had to pay $0.99 for the HEVC update.
The system did its thing and promptly crashed. After a reboot, I learned that the Microsoft provided file could not install.
No kidding. But the Microsoft mechanism for charging me $0.99 for the codec worked.
These guys are going to power the US military establishment? Of course.
Stephen E Arnold, September 13, 2020
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