TikTok: One US Government Agency Is Not Addicted
July 6, 2022
“U.S. FCC Commissioner Wants Apple and Google to Remove TikTok from Their App Stores” appears to have avoided the digital addiction which some attribute to TikTok. As I have pointed out in my lectures, some Silicon Valley “real news” types are just thrilled with TikTok. Others, like myself, view the app with considerable suspicion. It appears that the UD Federal Communications Commission has some doubts as well.
The write up states:
A leader of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission said he has asked Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores over China-related data security concerns.
The article points out:
- A China connection
- Data hoovering
- A surveillance tool.
The real news folks did not mention TikTok’s usefulness as a psyops weapon.
Oh, well. Why would psyops be important? Possibly manipulation, blackmail, weaponized information. Yeah, no big deal.
Stephen E Arnold, June xx, 2022
Academics Can Predict Crime: What about Close Enough for Horseshoes Accuracy?
July 6, 2022
I have no phat phaux phrench bulldog in this upcoming academic free-for-all. I read “Algorithm Predicts Crime a Week in Advance, But Reveals Bias in Police Response.” Yellow lights flash.
The article is a summary of a longer research paper published by wizards at the University of Chicago, an outstanding institution located in a safe, well-lit, and community-oriented area of Chicago. Home of the Bears and once the literal stomping grounds of the P Stone Nation. (And, Yes, I am intentionally leaving part of the gang’s name out of my reference. Feel free to use the full gang name yourself.)
The write up says:
Data and social scientists from the University of Chicago have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. The model can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy.
Predicting crime a week before the incident or incidents sounds like an application of predictive analytics. I think there was an outfit which started at Indiana University which came up with something similar. That system attracted some attention and some skepticism.
But humans are curious and applying mathematical recipes to available data is for some an interesting way to pursue grants, publicity, and maybe some start up funding.
But 90 percent. That begs the question, “What about that other 10 percent?” How low does the model go for acceptable outputs? Maybe 60 percent confidence? Maybe lower?
The write up continues:
Previous efforts at crime prediction often use an epidemic or seismic approach, where crime is depicted as emerging in “hotspots” that spread to surrounding areas. These tools miss out on the complex social environment of cities, however, and don’t consider the relationship between crime and the effects of police enforcement.
I know I have mentioned Banjo (now SafeX AI) and the firm’s patents. Some of these patent documents provide useful summaries of some of the algorithms used in predictive models. What’s strikes me as important about math-centric outputs is that methods are useful — up to a point. I have a canned lecture which identifies the 10 most used mathy methods and identifies how the data sets going in can be poisoned by an intentional actor. The culprit can be smart software generating data in the manner of AI synthetic data systems or by humans working for a government funded entity in St. Petersburg, Russia.
However, there have been a few high hurdles predictive systems have to jump over in a clean, fluid manner; for instance:
- Identifying and filtering certain data. Bad data can have a significant impact of the outputs. My recollection is that analysis of a predictive system in California revealed wide variation in the collection of data and the consistency of the data from both humans and automated sources
- Refining actionable outputs. Some of these outputs are often wide of the mark. This means that scarce resources may be deployed on a wild goose chase or investigation of actors who are not “bad” or involved in an incident
- Real time not correlating with the past. Numerous contextual issues arise in real time, and predictive systems operate in what I call a time disconnected mode. For those on the pointy end of the stick, this time variance can create a situation in which the predictive outputs are not just a few degrees off center, they are orbiting around a beach club in Bermuda.
If you want to read the entire academic “we have cracked this problem” article, navigate to this link. You will have to pay to read this remarkable article.
Stephen E Arnold, July 6, 2022
Allegations about McKinsey & Company: Blue Chip Black Eye or CRISPR-Proof Genetic Defect?
July 5, 2022
Fungible documents can be informative. “Documents Reveal McKinsey’s Role Increasing Opioid Sales Until 2019” – if the documents are “real” real—appear to illustrate what might be described as errors in judgment. What I call the opioid moment may attract like fly paper other names.
The write up states:
McKinsey & Company found opportunities to boost opioid manufacturers’ sales amid the addiction crisis from 2004 to 2019, new documents published by the University of California at San Francisco and Johns Hopkins University show.
The fact that the documents are in the hands of educational institutions and not “real” newspapers adds some risk to McKinsey. Academics have colleagues with specialized skills, computer resources, and those ever helpful graduate students. Some graduate students enjoy assisting senior academics. Others, like myself, wanted to either get paid or be exempted from often useless required courses. (Does anyone benefit from the student of economics? Answer this question whilst stepping over street people in San Francisco.
The write up notes that there are 114,000 pages of documents. McKinsey’s advice may have been the application of what I call billing logic. The idea is that one bills. If a blue chip consultant can offer advice which yields more billable hours, good things happen for the blue chip consultant. The client? Well, in this case, the alleged correlation of the death of “half a million people” as a result of certain actions by McKinsey and its clients. Cited in the article are the estimable outfits Purdue Pharma, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Johnson & Johnson, and Mallinckrodt.
McKinsey, according to the article, shifted gears and allegedly “recognized the terrible consequences of the opioid epidemic.” Yep, recognizing and taking action after the fact are interesting approaches to billing. The article also states that a McKinsey professional spokesperson who presumably did not have a child die of a synthetic opioid overdose, acknowledged “our role in serving opioid manufacturers.”
Not a peep about billing nothing about the incentives in place to allow certain engagements to be accepted and expanded over a period of years. Blue chips are unregulated. Some MBA and analytic types self regulated. Perhaps a different approach is needed? Would one of those killed by diffusion of synthetic opioids have been able to offer a new approach?
Not even McKinsey’s whiz kids can ask a dead person a question in an interview designed for fact finding.
Stephen E Arnold, July 5, 2022
TikTok Is Rolling Coal and Facebook Needs Clean Air
July 5, 2022
TikTok’s popularity is surging, especially with the coveted youth market, while Facebook is moving the opposite direction. The threat has Facebook’s parent company Meta rethinking how it presents content and encourages users to connect. Perhaps “rethink” is not the correct word—it looks more like copy-and-paste. The Verge discusses upcoming changes and the motivations behind them in, “Facebook Is Changing its Algorithm to Take on TikTok, Leaked Memo Reveals.” Reporter Alex Heath cites Facebook head Tom Alison as he writes:
“Rather than prioritize posts from accounts people follow, Facebook’s main feed will, like TikTok, start heavily recommending posts regardless of where they come from. And years after Messenger and Facebook split up as separate apps, the two will be brought back together, mimicking TikTok’s messaging functionality. Combined with an increasing emphasis on Reels, the planned changes show how forcibly Meta is responding to the rise of TikTok, which has quickly become a legitimate challenger to its dominance in social media.”
What do you do when you are out of ideas and sucking the exhaust of the truck rolling coal in front of you? Imitate. Build your own rolling coal machine… just nothing too original. Best not to take any risks, not when one is already falling behind. The article notes a key piece of this mimicry lies in the discovery engine, which will no longer focus on content from friends but instead source recommendations from the wilds of both Facebook and Instagram. Just like TikTok. It will also make it easier to share and discuss videos through direct messages in an attempt to keep discussions from wandering onto other platforms. Again, as its nemesis does. The article describes:
“Here’s how the future Facebook app will work in practice: the main tab will become a mix of Stories and Reels at the top, followed by posts its discovery engine recommends from across both Facebook and Instagram. It’ll be a more visual, video-heavy experience with clearer prompts to direct message friends a post. To make messaging even more prominent, Facebook is working on placing a user’s Messenger inbox at the top right of the app, undoing the infamous decision to separate the two apps eight years ago.”
Some Facebook employees are not so sure about this swerve to follow in TikTok’s fumes, suggesting this course may take them too far from Facebook’s core mission. (No, not chasing ad dollars. Connecting friends and family, silly.) To which Alison says, basically, pshaw. Heath reminds us of several times Facebook has made changes to stay apace of rivals like Snapchat and points out Facebook has a successful history of “recognizing upstarts and ruthlessly copying their core features.” After all, who needs innovation when one is a master of imitation?
Cynthia Murrell, July 5, 2022
Waymo: A Few Bugs? Impossible, Google Does Not Do Bugs, Does It?
July 5, 2022
I read an amusing article about Google’s smart autos. It was “Traffic Cones Confused a Waymo Self-Driving Car. Then Things Got Worse.” I noted this explanation of a minor issue:
A confused Waymo self-driving car was captured on video as it became stranded on an Arizona road earlier this month while carrying a passenger and then unexpectedly driving away as a worker from the company’s roadside assistance arrived to help. But the Waymo vehicle soon became stuck farther down the road, which was lined with construction cones. The Waymo worker caught up to the vehicle, took over, and drove the paying passenger to his final destination. Waymo operates a limited ride hail service in Chandler, Arizona.
Traffic cones are familiar, if unloved, accoutrements of modern highway life. Telecommunication companies, contractors related to elected officials, and fun loving high school students put them in interesting places. Japan has traffic cones with embossed faces, according to the real news outfit SoraNews24.com:
This image originated with www.soranews24.com and I am eager to credit them for their outstanding news coverage of traffic cones. Could the face on the cone have frightened the almost sentient Google smart software?
An outfit called Briskoda.net offers a traffic cone with humanoid characteristics but no explanation.
Kudos to Briskoda, a forum for the owners and lovers of the outstanding Skoda vehicles. Sorry. I don’t know how to enter the S with the little hat. Check out www.briskoda.net, and you may inspired to acquire this gem of a European vehicle.
If the Waymo smart software was confused by these types of traffic cones, I think we should forgive Google for the misstep described in the article. If the smart software is just not functioning, perhaps a critical look is warranted? Perhaps Google has to put “waymo wood” behind this smart driver autonomous thing.
Stephen E Arnold, July 5, 2022
Differences between Amateur and Pro Analysts: A Sci-Fi Adventure
July 5, 2022
I read “One of the Most Prominent Crypto Hedge Funds Just Defaulted on a $670 Million Loan.” I also read some of the reports about the company. You can refresh your understanding of “real” analysts at work. Try this link even though the main Three Arrows’ site is throwing 404s.
I then read “10 Differences between Amateurs and Professional Analysts.” (You may have spit up an email or pay to read this estimable essay about differences in data wrangling pony riders.) I considered each of the points of differentiation. Here are three, but you will have to consult the original article yourself to be further enlightened.
- Handling lots of data. Yeah, let’s ask Dr. Timnit Gebru about that. My experience is that those better at analytics can make those data perform like trained ponies at the Barnum & Bailey Circus.
- Immunity to data science bias. Yeah, let us check out how the AI demos respond to requests for certain topics. Try Crungus on DALL-E. Working good, right?
- Refusing to be a data charlatan. And Three Arrows? Just an anomaly, perhaps?
Net net: No difference unless measured in ångströms and an happy ignorance of poisoned data when sucking down alternative information. What could go wrong? Answer: Three Arrows.
Stephen E Arnold, July 5, 2022
Xoogler Demonstrates Historical Revisionism
July 4, 2022
How did Google’s famous “solving death” project get funded? What about the “put wood behind” social networking initiative? What about those X moon shots?
The answers to these and other Google mysteries allegedly appear in “Former Google CEO Describes Brutal Review Process for New Projects.” The write up reveals:
Schmidt always stated Google took a bottom-up approach to managing the 20% project. Meaning it was a collaborative effort in deciding what steps to take with new product ideas. However, Schmidt says at Collision that company leaders were more involved than previously stated. It wasn’t a team decision that allowed projects to advance to the next level. The decision was determined through a “brutal” review process from management.
The questions asked, according to the article, were:
Are these ideas good enough?
Can we fund them?
Are they going to work?
Are they going to scale?
Are they legal?
One question I thought would be included was, “Is it possible to solve death?”
Obviously I am not officially Googley, but, take it from me, that is okay. Tony Bennett crooning in the cafeteria was sufficient for me. I also liked entering a building on Surfside because the door was propped open so those washing cars could traipse in and out without those silly key cards.
But death?
The write up includes this quote from the former leader of the online ad outfit:
To build a systemic innovation culture, which is what I think we’re talking about here, you need to have both bottoms up and tops down.
That’s logical. And logic rules at Google, right? Oh, I forgot to ask, “Is it possible arrogance plays a small part?”
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2022
CafePress: How Do You Make Coffee into Ersatz?
July 4, 2022
Years ago I was invited to a meeting. At the meeting was a big wheel from an outfit called CafePress. I knew the group sold T shirts with semi memorable and/or clever slogans. At one point in the discussions the big wheel pointed out that I was too harsh asking about specific points of a proposed contract. Like asking questions was bad, dude. As I listened to this senior officer’s comments about slippery contract provisions, I formed a probably unfair impression of the company. Would I rather spend my time lecturing law enforcement professionals or hanging out with the CafePress management team?
Answer: Give me the enforcers of laws, not sellers of Get Lucky in Kentucky coasters. Just my opinion, gentle reader.
When I read, “FTC Takes Action Against CafePress for Data Breach Cover Up,” I was not particularly surprised. Slippery contract language, self-important huffing and puffing, and the T shirt thing provided a fairly solid foundation for my opinion about some of the outfit’s business ideas.
The write up states:
The Federal Trade Commission today took action against online customized merchandise platform CafePress over allegations that it failed to secure consumers’ sensitive personal data and covered up a major breach.
Was I surprised?
Answer: No.
My view is that most New Age online outfits share a similar DNA. Specifically, there are fragments of protein that are responsive to opportunities to take advantage, demonstrate mendacious behavior, and take a dim view of people who ask pointed questions.
Will there be consequences?
Answer: Insufficient ones.
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2022
PicRights: Eliciting Strong Opinions
July 4, 2022
I noted a post on FSDeveloper.com in a thread identified as “PicRights Image Copyright Infringements.” I typically believe everything I read on the information superhighway’s sign posts. This particular post is interesting cause it contains a number of useful links. The content to which the links point purports to put the actions of a firm called PicRights in context.
Several points in the posts and responses struck me as interesting. I continue to think about including a category in my cyber crime lectures about “soft fraud.” I define “soft fraud” as systems and methods designed to generate revenue from incomplete information, legal threats, or action taken to harm an individual.”
Now let’s look at what appears in the FSDeveloper.com post:
- An entity identified as Scruffyduck Administrator Staff Member pointed out that a business identified as PicRights wanted 500 pounds for unauthorized use of an image. The post makes clear that the going rate for the misused image was 500 pounds. I think the point is that the use of the copyright violation tactic was intended to produce revenue for the company and a cost to the admitted offender.
- Ronald Resource Contributor provided a series of links related to such topics as patent trolls and several posts providing allegedly accurate information about PicRights. The post ended with Ronald urging people to create their own art.
- DragonflightDesign Resource Contributor pointed out that a law firm affiliated/related to PicRights acts in an untoward manner. I am not comfortable quoting the text used to describe this law firm. The post includes a useful example about how images are repurposed and claimed by picture aggregators. I think the main idea is that a once public image is converted into private property. I find this interesting because the “soft fraud” appears to pivot on disconnecting an image from its primary state (public) to a secondary and monetary state (private) for the purpose of generating revenue.
Net net: As cyber crime goes, the industrialized outfits don’t fool around with blogs and non governmental organizations. The focus of “hard fraud” is often money laundering, sale of contraband, and distributing malware as part of the Crime as a Service trend.
Nevertheless, the FSDeveloper post provides a suggestive cluster of information. What other examples of “soft fraud” exist? What comes to mind are “dark patterns” which trick users into taking an ill considered action, telecom companies defining “unlimited” as “limited”, and companies operating eBay and Amazon type systems which create an ecosystem for the sale of knock off goods and stolen merchandise. I wonder if I should expand my comments about soft fraud in my upcoming lecture for a US government law enforcement training program?
Maybe.
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2022
Ernst & Young: Ethics Pioneer Blazes Trail for Other Blue Chip Outfits
July 4, 2022
I found the write up “Accounting Giant Ernst & Young Admits Its Employees Cheated on Ethics Exams” a hoot. I love the idea of blue chip firms beavering away to teach their Class A professionals about ethics. If a business school teaches a class about ethics, it may last three months. With MBA candidates thinking about how a non fungible token can be launched, crafting a great PowerPoint deck for a friendly, cash-motivated venture funding outfit, or just planning on a productive networking event about investing in a down market, those MBA students are probably going to ignore ethics instruction. Yo, money, not philosophy and do-goodism. Ethics? Isn’t the notion of ethical behavior contextual and relativistic?
Sure. Consider the application of logic to ethics.
The people hired to work at outfits like Ernst & Young, Bain, McKinsey, Booz Allen, et al are logical; that is, data drives decisions. Ethics is squishy stuff and difficult to quantify. Efficiency means replacing people with so so software. Clear decision making is like a Google-type method similar to cutting out cancer when a professional doesn’t go along with the program. The fix apparently for Ernst & Young is to give employees some talks either in person or via a video and an exam.
What’s the most logical way to pass a test about something that has pretty much zero to do with how business decisions are made in the lofty spaces corporate America and its consultants occupy?
Answer: Just cheat. Makes sense, doesn’t it?
The write up states:
Ernst & Young, one of the top accounting firms in the world, is being fined $100 million by federal regulators after admitting its employees cheated on their ethics exams.
How much did the multi billion dollar behemoth pay to own up to ethics exam cheating?
About $100 million … allegedly. The firm appears to have been cheating for more than a decade. Those regulators are Johnny on the spot, aren’t they?
E&Y is an accounting firm, right? When was the last time, an accounting firm wrote you a check in prompt way without balking, asking questions, checking receipts for a meal at Sonic Drive In?
Yeah, $100 million. Ethics. Blue chip outfits. Break up, go public, go private, merge, go public, repeat.
Yeah, ethics.
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2022
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